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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 661

ZFS | Posted 3/31/2009 8:20:30 PM | message detail
Haha aw yeah

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HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2009 8:51:10 PM | message detail
Laugh if you like about Leon/Kirby, but Leon's faced Dante three times. The first time he faced Dante post-DMC4 in 2008 was Leon's best performance by at least 3% compared to when Leon faced Dante with Pikachu and Kirby in different matches. Also, on the Top 100 List, RE4 was #14 (right behind FFX at #12, mind you) when the GC-game was the only version out and was less than a year old. Seeing RE4 lose to FFX like that in the GotC-poll doesn't seem legit to me -- RE4 definitely should have done better, and I think it was because of Nintendo.
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Prototype
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trannyscience | Posted 3/31/2009 8:56:26 PM | message detail
sounds like excuses to me. we'll get to see this in action in a couple months -- or we'll see that it bombs and blame Zelda, whatever. either way, I don't like this extremely vague excuse.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:01:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2906

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2916

Why did Pikachu suddenly do better?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 9:01:55 PM | message detail
I figured most people thought Leon/Nintendo overlap existed. Resident Evil 4 was less a sequel and more a rebirth of a huge but stagnating series. Hell, it was less a sequel than it was the launching of a whole new series... or something. It was also a million seller on the Gamecube before it hit the PS2 and was the last game worth a damn on the cube for two years. And then it went on to sell over a million on the Wii. He's not going to have crazy overlap, but it's common sense to think he'll have more than a PS-exclusive (fine, nearly PS-exclusive) character like Dante.
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trannyscience | Posted 3/31/2009 9:03:43 PM | message detail
so if this is the case, why didn't Bowser beat Leon down?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/31/2009 9:07:05 PM | message detail
Pikachu's turn around was probably a combination of being held down by 2 other RPG characters in that match, and then Leon being held down by 2 other Capcom characters in the next match.

It'd take more than one factor to change that much.

Leon would have no reason to beat Leon down in the face of any of those facts, that's unrelated. SFF=/=LFF
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 9:07:47 PM | message detail
Overlap doesn't mean he'll get killed. It just means, well... the fanbase overlaps, which could conceivably hurt both of them in a four-way format. Of course, it seems even weirder for Leon, because in the 4way matches that have spelled his doom, he's had to deal with one strong or semi-strong Nintendo guy to hurt his Nintendo support and another guy who hurts the support he'd get based on his design and badass appeal.

BESIDES Bowser may have overperformed anyway! Leon could win a rematch today.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:08:43 PM | message detail
I'm not sure Pikachu can be proof for that year as we don't really know if Leon would have been close to Dante or not that year, but if Pikachu was undoubtedly the cause of Leon losing that match, I'd pretty much agree with Harrich 100% as even the century result seems even fishier to me than once thought.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/31/2009 9:08:49 PM | message detail
Bowser would have no reason to beat down Leon X_X

messed up
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:22:02 PM | message detail
Amaterasu hurting Leon? Eh... I really doubt it.

I have no idea what happened to Leon there to tell you the truth but I doubt Capcom LFF's that significantly.

though Leon impressing against Dante post DMC4 would certainly point to Pikachu being the only possible conclusion left.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/31/2009 9:37:56 PM | message detail
Message From GameFAQs on 03/31/2009
The poll without results will be fixed eventually (uses slightly different code), and the bonus country codes were intended as an Easter Egg.


I got that response from SB on the extra country options I discovered. I also reported a problem with poll 3307.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 2:48:03 AM | message detail
Message From Ultima_X on 03/27/2009

Just a minor typo, but that poll is listed as a round 2 match between Chrono Trigger vs Secret of Mana when it was actually Chrono Trigger vs Super Mario RPG.
Message From GameFAQs on 03/31/2009

Meh, I don't like editing old PotDs.


Until the end of time, we're going to see Secret of Mana in that match and "Metroid 3" vs Pac-Man.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 3:08:37 AM | message detail
And you know what's really starting to bother me?

Final Fantasy 7 63.14% 58,849
Final Fantasy X 36.86% 34,360
TOTAL VOTES 93,209

There isn't a doubt in my mind MGS would do better than 36.86% in a non-SFF match against Final Fantasy 7. If FFX fails to get favoritism in the split against MGS in that FFX/MGS/OOT/Melee match, MGS could conceivably get second place there.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 3:09:34 AM | message detail
Which assumes OOT even manages to SFF Melee. Can you imagine Melee weakening OOT enough for it not to get first place in that match? People would go berserk.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/1/2009 4:42:52 AM | message detail
What if Prime doesn't make it out of Round 1 and instead KH & Vice City do, does MGS2 have a chance at making Round 3 with FFX?

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MeteorMercenary | Posted 4/1/2009 5:19:20 AM | message detail
Most definitely.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/1/2009 5:22:56 AM | message detail
There isn't a doubt in my mind MGS would do better than 36.86% in a non-SFF match against Final Fantasy 7.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1653

Uhhh...

(Yeah, I know it's from 2004, but still.)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/1/2009 5:25:38 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3247&region=EUR

Wait, Guybrush is semi-popular in Europe? 1/4 of his votes came from there.
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The_Doom_Dealer | Posted 4/1/2009 5:32:12 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1653

Uhhh...

(Yeah, I know it's from 2004, but still.)


Good show.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 5:38:59 AM | message detail
I'm not even sure if FFX even gets that much to tell you the truth. 128 division is wonked.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 6:44:45 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 4/1/2009 8:22:56 AM | #168
There isn't a doubt in my mind MGS would do better than 36.86% in a non-SFF match against Final Fantasy 7.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1653

Uhhh...

(Yeah, I know it's from 2004, but still.)


I specifically said non-SFF match with Final Fantasy 7. I'm well aware what the score in 2004 was, but I think it was an SFF fest. Unless you're trying to sell me on Metal Gear Solid 2 beating Metal Gear Solid 55-45, which is certifiably insane.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 6:49:44 AM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 4/1/2009 7:42:52 AM | #166
What if Prime doesn't make it out of Round 1 and instead KH & Vice City do, does MGS2 have a chance at making Round 3 with FFX?


GTA: Vice City 52.16%
Metroid Prime 47.84%

And that's with an SFFd Metroid Prime. Until it shows me otherwise, I'm not trusting GTA to do anything. And assuming Metroid Prime places there, it has a bye into Round 3 with Kingdom Hearts, MGS2 and FFX all being big-time PS2 games.

Even funnier is that Metroid Prime *could* hurt SSBM enough to get FFX > SSBM in that Round 3 match. This is the ultimate chain reaction contest.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/1/2009 6:55:08 AM | message detail
An SFFed Metroid Prime? I don't know... can you really call a 45% loss SFF? Like what, 3% less due to SFF? Come on
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 6:57:41 AM | message detail
That's more than enough percentage to beat the current strength of Vice City. No one cares about GTA anymore.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 7:03:25 AM | message detail
I'm still questioning how hurt SSBM could be from Windwaker and Prime. Both are also one of the biggest GameCube titles.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 7:24:17 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 4/1/2009 10:03:25 AM | #176
I'm still questioning how hurt SSBM could be from Windwaker and Prime. Both are also one of the biggest GameCube titles.


FFX > Melee > Halo > Metroid Prime is what I have in that round 3 match.

Yet again, Game of the Century time!

Adjusted, you get something like this:

Final Fantasy X 27768
Metroid Prime 12138
Halo or GTA3 or Diablo 2 15646
Resident Evil 4 20435
Super Smash Bros. Melee 31639

Added WW and Prime's votes, gave Melee all of Galaxy and TP's votes, and replaced San Andreas with the 3 games most likely to be in its place. That leaves RE4's 20k votes to split up when Melee and FFX have a gap of 4000 votes.

However, Melee is notoriously bad in multi-game polls, while FF overperforms in a lot of multi-way polls. That 4000 vote gap might not be there at all even before you decide where RE4's votes go. Even if you want to call RE4 a quasi-Nintendo game, the PS2 version sold the most. FFX is much more likely to win that split than Melee is, especially with Metroid Prime in the poll. FFX isn't fighting with any game for votes.

It's a leap of faith, but I don't think it's some big stretch.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/1/2009 7:25:11 AM | message detail
You seem to forget that Starcraft's half of the division is overrated compare to SSBM's half. Also Halo is probably weaker than WW and KH is weaker than MP, by 2004 standards.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 7:33:32 AM | message detail
That all sounds far too complicated.

raw strength rise: FFX more or less = SSBM > Metroid Prime > Halo.

The only reason I still have SSBM over Halo (or any other game that could be there not named GTA III), is because I think SSBM wouldn't nearly split with Prime and maybe get 60-65% of the votes in a direct match with it while Halo is just overrated.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 7:36:03 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 4/1/2009 10:25:11 AM | #178
You seem to forget that Starcraft's half of the division is overrated compare to SSBM's half. Also Halo is probably weaker than WW and KH is weaker than MP, by 2004 standards.


2004 standards don't apply to Kingdom Hearts.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 7:58:53 AM | message detail
KH should flourish in this format if Sora's any sign (though Riku doesn't grant any confidence!)

But yeah, I'd say KH has grown since 2004. Definitely.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 8:13:05 AM | message detail
Brawl/Galaxy is still bothering me. It's still pretty much a coin flip to me here.

I notice how Wii tied with the 360 in the system of the year poll 2007, while a few months ago it got dominated.

Turtle and others have mentioned this as to why Galaxy did well in 2007, but I figure this just might be what makes me actually choose Galaxy.

Galaxy wasn't the reason why the people disliked the Wii... if it was Brawl, then...
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/1/2009 8:27:08 AM | message detail
2004 standards don't apply to Kingdom Hearts.

True and MP is being weighed down by PM.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 10:10:15 AM | message detail
I'm also still wondering about SMW2's popularity.. sure it's more known than Earthbound, but I wonder if it's as liked as the other Mario games. It certainly doesn't garner hate though, so I guess I should still be able to stick with it.
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*is Dranze*
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 10:39:58 AM | message detail
Totally rooting for EarthBound in that one.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/1/2009 11:28:19 AM | message detail
I specifically said non-SFF match with Final Fantasy 7. I'm well aware what the score in 2004 was, but I think it was an SFF fest.

So you mean it would do that indirectly?

Hmmm...Not so sure about that. MGS vs. SSBM: Who you got?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 12:05:34 PM | message detail
SSBM.. today.

Back then, barely.
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*is Dranze*
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/1/2009 12:09:10 PM | message detail
1v1? SSBM, probably. But in a shared poll with FFX and OOT? There is nothing holding MGS back other than some whacky ass end of Final Fantasy SFF.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/1/2009 1:18:29 PM | message detail
SSBM and MGS have been tough to gauge for awhile. SSBM's run through Div 128 was by the skin of its teeth and it collapsed against FF7 despite the fact that Nintendo always brings its A game to those matches, but MGS struggled against FFT and flopped against FF7 directly. MGS got #8 on The List with MGS2 and MGS3 both holding it back, but SSBM got #6 with SSB doing the same. SSB did so well in the Series Contest that it's practically assumed by everyone that it rSFFed SMB, enough to put Sonic (which it thrashed) a clear tier over MGS.

But what really gets me is this - MGS4 came dangerously close to SSBB despite everything it had holding it back. Franchise voting has been pointed out as the culprit by the majority of people I've seen. That would imply the MGS franchise > the SSB franchise... and by quite a bit, if it's enough to make people vote for a game they didn't play over a game they DID play. If MGS is the strongest MGS game (which it should be, though we haven't seen a ton conclusive evidence outside of The List) in a stronger franchise, you'd think it would follow that it could beat the strongest SSB game...

...not that this means much from a direct standpoint in this bracket, but it's a reason I have MGS in the finals.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 1:33:14 PM | message detail
Well, I'm not sure if I would go as far as to say it's a stronger franchise because of that.

Though of course today SSB wouldn't get that much on SMB, I'm not sure if it'd fall down near MGS.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/1/2009 1:55:38 PM | message detail
Oh, SSB was *never* worth that much on SMB - don't even think of it like that. Sonic the Hedgehog is what you need to look at there - if you peg it at around the MM series' level as of 2k6 (and that's possibly being generous to it), then Metal Gear is getting around the 44% mark or so on SSB as of 2k6. Then add in that SSB was on a serious hype boost circa 2006 that has been subsequently obliterated and the shift away from Nintendo, and that could easily make the match competitive. Remember, this still doesn't even address the potential anomaly of SMB getting 46% on Zelda indirectly...
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 2:00:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'd say the Sonic series is pretty much around Mega Man's level; at least around that year anyway considering that was Sonic's best year, so Metal Gear would have probably done around what you said.

With all this said, I know MGS > FFX is just as likely as vice-versa.
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*is Dranze*
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ZFS | Posted 4/1/2009 2:02:02 PM | message detail
I'd be really surprised if MGS could stand up to FFX.

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trannyscience | Posted 4/1/2009 3:20:15 PM | message detail
The users of GameFAQs have nominated 128 of the best video games of all time, and it's time to let them battle it out. Starting April 7th, the 128-game winner-take-all tournament will begin.
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xyzzy
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/1/2009 3:43:33 PM | message detail
.. April Fools joke?

<_<
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*is Dranze*
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trannyscience | Posted 4/1/2009 3:44:17 PM | message detail
it's updated all over the official rules, so probably not.
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xyzzy
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/1/2009 3:53:39 PM | message detail
Looks like Bacon knows I'll probably be replaying Bioshock in the next few days. Nice of him!
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/1/2009 3:55:00 PM | message detail
Damn, he snuck bad news in under the joke! Boo.....
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Prototype
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ZFS | Posted 4/1/2009 3:59:56 PM | message detail
Not too long of a delay, just a few days.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/1/2009 4:07:55 PM | message detail
damn you bacoonnnnn
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