GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 661
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/30/2009 9:44:36 PM | message detail |
|
DEADLINE IS THURSDAY AW YEAH BAY-BEH. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| KingBartz | Posted 3/30/2009 9:53:21 PM | message detail |
|
wow it's coming up quick. --- Finally ready for this new contest dealy. Well, sorta. |
| RPGGamer0 | Posted 3/31/2009 3:51:46 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/31/2009 8:42:27 AM | message detail |
|
AGAIN WITH THE 500 HIJACK PLAY EARTHBOUND *****ES --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 8:42:48 AM | message detail |
|
moar liek mother 2 --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/Meracle.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2009 8:43:08 AM | message detail |
|
Just missed putting this in the last topic, I guess: FF7 should be killer in this format, yes, but that doesn't make it invincible. Auron alone helped Sonic go from 35.83% to 42.28% on Sephiroth and Ryu go from 21.87% to 28.99% on Cloud, and we have seen Cloud/Seph SFF Auron one-on-one before, too. Characters aren't games, but CT/FF6 will give problems if Auron did...and LoZ:LttP is a threat if Ryu/Sonic could improve that much. --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| 1v1s | Posted 3/31/2009 8:46:18 AM | message detail |
|
No. As for OoT being remade... it really hasn't. I mean there was that mega collection for GC, and then there's the Wii store or whatever the hell that thing is called. But I don't see either of those reaching out to the young gamers of today. It's never actually had a proper re-release, or remake to really get new people excited and interested in it. I think it's pretty faulty reasoning for OoT taking down FF7. As for kids not being into RPGs... obviously this is purely anecdotal (but so is your claim), but for myself that was the only time I played RPGs. I used to love the hell out of them, and now it's been years since I've been able to get into one. I just have the time or commitment to get through them anymore, and even if I did, I'm just not all that interested in them. --- 1v1 > 4-way all hail ec your lord and savior |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 8:47:48 AM | message detail |
|
I'm sure RPGs were also less complicated when you were a kid and
weren't overshadowed by more casual games kids would be more interested
in like GEars of War, GTA and Halo, though. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/Meracle.jpg |
| 1v1s | Posted 3/31/2009 8:50:07 AM | message detail |
|
FF7 should be killer in this format, yes, but that doesn't make it invincible. Auron alone helped Sonic go from 35.83% to 42.28% on Sephiroth and Ryu go from 21.87% to 28.99% on Cloud, and we have seen Cloud/Seph SFF Auron one-on-one before, too. Characters aren't games, but CT/FF6 will give problems if Auron did...and LoZ:LttP is a threat if Ryu/Sonic could improve that much. It helps when the match-up you have is FF7/SMB3/LTTP/FF2. No chance in hell LTTP finishes first there, imo. Then if you have FF7 > LTTP there (personally don't, have SMB3), it has OoT to deal with in the finals. Obviously most people don't have this match-up in their bracket, but with the games I have going as far as they do, there's no reason for me to entertain LTTP winning. I guess it helps --- 1v1 > 4-way all hail ec your lord and savior |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 8:51:58 AM | message detail |
|
The matchup people are talking about I beleive is the FF7/CT/FF6/LttP match in round 4. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/Meracle.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 3/31/2009 8:52:21 AM | message detail |
|
Sweden has some interesting contest results. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| NutsWearhouse | Posted 3/31/2009 8:53:00 AM | message detail |
|
Which I don't think is going to happen... if that does actually happen
LTTP has a great shot at winning. But I don't think that's coming to
fruition. --- You're gonna love my nuts, I guarantee it. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/31/2009 8:57:08 AM | message detail |
|
I'm assuming that means you have Mario 64 beating Chrono Trigger? --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 3/31/2009 8:57:48 AM | message detail |
|
I'm curious as to the reasoning behind Mario Kart 64 > Goldeneye,
which presumably enables CT losing to Mario 64 (not that I think CT
would lose with MK64 instead of Goldeneye there). --- Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do? Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/31/2009 9:00:17 AM | message detail |
|
Tag And I simply would've liked to see how SSB64 does. Then again, there are more pressing issues with the bracket anyways. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:02:23 AM | message detail |
|
well Harrich, to be fair Auron wasn't really SFF'd that terribly. Squall and Sora on the other hand would be SFF'd to the ground and that's why Mewtwo won that match. He would not have beaten Auron. I suppose the better they hold it, the worse the split? In that case, CT is more of a worry than FF6 since it's gotten obliterated already. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2009 9:07:09 AM | message detail |
|
Valid point, but CT wasn't SFF'd much by FF7 either (perhaps at all?).
That could be a similar problem for FF7, and that's before considering
what FF3/6 does too. --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| NutsWearhouse | Posted 3/31/2009 9:07:58 AM | message detail |
|
Yes, I have SM64 > CT. I've always believed it was stronger than
007. It just makes sense to me that Goldeneye would fair better against
OoT than 64. Granted I probably wouldn't have bought that before the
first games contest, I do now. Revisionist or not, I don't see
Goldeneye being stronger than SM64, and there is at least some decent
logic behind OoT hurting SM64 more. I think it pummels MK64 pretty hard
and CT is struggles with FF7 in the picture. Granted MK64 can never
even get to that match. I really have no clue about that first 4-pack in 95-97. As it stands I have RE2 > Goldeneye meeting with FF7 & MK64. Should RE2 or MK64 go through I still feel good about SM64 making it over CT there, but if Goldeneye makes it maybe not. I'm guessing 007 is the favorite to move on amongst everybody? The more I look at my bracket the more confused I get, which is probably why I've ignored it since it was released. augh now I want to make 007 move on, but I don't feel like changing everything around. screw this contest. --- You're gonna love my nuts, I guarantee it. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:08:43 AM | message detail |
|
It's also equally possible that CT held up better because ... they just aren't that linked. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/31/2009 9:10:52 AM | message detail |
|
I doubt CT hurts FFVII more than Mario hurts Link. CT may be a
little closer to FFVII normally than Mario is to Link, but the overlap
should also be substantially less. You could say that it won't get
SFF'd, but then, Link didn't SFF Mario very hard. CT is probably pretty comparable to Mario in that sense, except CT holds up a bit better. The real trick is that FF6 will have way more overlap with FF7 than MMX did with Link, and probably won't get SFF'd into the ground. The only chance FF7 has to take first in that match is if FF6 and CT hurt each other so much that they don't have as much of an impact. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2009 9:18:04 AM | message detail |
|
Yeah, but that's not as likely. I know we've seen some things that
suggest FF7 doesn't SFF CT much/any so we shouldn't necessarily assume
they're joined at the hip...but they're the top two RPGs ever on this
site and by the same company within the same era. CT's going to
undoubtedly bother FF7 more than LoZ:LttP, especially since LoZ:LttP
will get to stand out in that match. Perhaps CT's effect alone won't
hurt FF7 much, but this situation is still plenty enough to put FF7 in
a bad position. --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 9:24:46 AM | message detail |
|
So... does SSBM hurt Wind Waker enough to let Diablo 2 to finish 2nd? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/Meracle.jpg |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/31/2009 9:38:15 AM | message detail |
|
And my other issue with Soul Calibur is that thanks to Starcraft's run
five years ago, it (and most of Division 128, for that matter) is
likely overrated. But anyway, we'll see just how strong it really is. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/31/2009 9:41:11 AM | message detail |
|
From: MyWorldIsCrono | #022 They SFF eachother enough to let Diablo 2 finish first. Then next round SSBM and Metroid Prime do the same thing to let it come second. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:43:01 AM | message detail |
|
Why do people suggest FF6 will take away more FF7 votes? Look at any
favorite FF poll and you'll see that no FF game will do anything to it
significantly. I really don't know what LTTP would get on FF7 today, but I really doubt it's over 45/46%. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/31/2009 9:45:03 AM | message detail |
|
It would probably do a bit better than CT did in '04. FF7/OoT are not nearly as dominant as Cloud/Link --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/31/2009 9:47:34 AM | message detail |
|
Triple LFF with the two games that are most likely to not get run into
the ground makes for an unlucky situation for FFVII, I'd say. We've
seen triple LFF do pretty severe things last contest - Mewtwo got 34%
on Cloud (nearly Noble Nine tier!) with Squall and Sora, and 25.7%
(midcarder, much more reasonable) the round afterwards. And Squall and
Sora even had the decency to get pasted; I definitely don't think CT
will roll over and I think FFVI will stand up to FFVII better than any
other FF. Harrich's already pointed out some of the gains Auron caused
in double LFF situations, the match I gave is, I think, the only Square
triple LFF match and it's very severe. If LttP is still in the 42%
range on FFVII like in 2004 or if that has improved I think it's got a
great shot at taking first there. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 9:51:50 AM | message detail |
|
We're still no sure how it works with old square though. Sora and Squall are all new Square characters along with Cloud. I say it's most likely a close match though. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 9:57:26 AM | message detail |
|
A lot of good points (along with a dizzying plethora of numbers) have
been made about the FFVII/LttP scenario, but I think some people might
be approaching this too logically and ignoring the standout factor. LttP is the only Nintendo option, and I don't think Nintendo fans are going to let an opportunity like this pass them by. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/31/2009 9:59:25 AM | message detail |
|
Well, we know Crono hurt Cloud against Link (and Snake, possibly
costing him second place) based on the gap between Link and Cloud
widening this year compared to last (45.2% to 43.8%). That isn't a
whole lot but Crono got beat up pretty bad in the final and CT is much
closer to FFVII than Crono is to Cloud (or at least it was, hopefully
it still is). And we know Crono got hit pretty hard; he went from 40%
on Link with Samus and Mario to 26.6% with Cloud and Snake. If Crono
and Cloud affect each other, it certainly seems reasonable to think
that CT and FFVII will as well, and the first two words of FFVI's title
are Final Fantasy so I'd wager it'll hurt Final Fantasy VII. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 10:00:46 AM | message detail |
|
From: PartOfYourWorld | #029 This. Its the best chance Nintendo could hope for to ever beat FF7. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://www.duelinganalogs.com/comics/2009-03-23.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 10:04:46 AM | message detail |
|
By the way, against CT and the #2 Nintendo game we have, is it conceivable that FFVII is in third place after the Power Hour? Bananas! --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/31/2009 10:05:22 AM | message detail |
|
Its possible after the first 30 minutes... don't see it lasting full hour though --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://www.duelinganalogs.com/comics/2009-03-23.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 10:07:37 AM | message detail |
|
Same here, but it's still conceivable. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ZFS | Posted 3/31/2009 10:16:18 AM | message detail |
|
I don't think people realize how strong FFVII is going to be in
four-ways, same with OoT to a lesser extent. I'd be very confident in
FFVII still coming out on top against LttP despite there being CT and
FFVI there, the latter of which will do next to nothing in holding
FFVII back. But I'm not really wanting to get into it, so we'll see how
it goes. --- doth thou desire the power |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 10:18:19 AM | message detail |
|
if Crono only hurt Cloud 2%, I really doubt that's anything to worry about when FF7 is far more loved than Cloud. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/31/2009 10:19:12 AM | message detail |
|
And Chrono Trigger is *far* more loved than Crono. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| voltch | Posted 3/31/2009 10:19:52 AM | message detail |
|
so what hurts FFVII more? the combined power of VI and CT or the more recent FFX? --- Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217 |
| ZFS | Posted 3/31/2009 10:21:13 AM | message detail |
|
Yeah, I'd agree with RPGuy. CT will hold up much better against FFVII
than Crono ever could. If FFVII comes in second there, it'll probably
be because of CT. --- doth thou desire the power |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/31/2009 10:24:24 AM | message detail |
|
True, both characters are less liked than their games most likely. In that case, I suppose a relationship between Crono/Cloud is somewhat proven (though 2% could easily be anything else to tell you the truth), but I really don't think CT/FF7 will be some omnious split, and I really doubt having "VI" in your name when you have probably the best match pics later on will matter. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 3/31/2009 10:25:53 AM | message detail |
|
B, a-n-a-n-a-s...! I also don't think it's been said yet that FF7/CT/FF3-6 -- as of 2005 -- are the biggest RPGs on the site, which makes them sharing the same company and similar eras more difficult for FF7. Perhaps FFX > FF3/6 now, but even if that's the case then it's not by a lot. You can also mention that CT and FF3/6 were popular PS1-ports and are probably less associated with the SNES than LoZ:LttP due to emulation. It's going to get ugly for FF7...but what's scary about FF7 is that it could still win that match. I wonder if people would pull the trigger on this similar upset: FFX LoZ:LttP LoZ:OoT SMB3 --- Prototype Shorthand, do you speak it?! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/31/2009 10:31:51 AM | message detail |
|
I'm not sure if I would for FFX - I don't know that it's close enough to Ocarina - but I definitely would if it was CT there. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 10:33:09 AM | message detail |
|
I might. Ocarina will trash those games pretty good (I think we all get
the feeling Nintendo fans will be quick to discard the weaker games in
such a scenario), but there's still an assload of overlap between the
three Nintendo games - more than we have in the real Square scenario,
anyway. Also, FFX might have an added benefit by being the only game
from the past decade/console generation. Another question: FFVII CT FFIII/VI OoT Does anyone not take that upset in a heartbeat? --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/31/2009 10:51:58 AM | message detail |
|
That's not even really an upset, really. I'd be shocked if people were
entertaining FF7 in that kind of a situation unless they think it just
embarrasses OoT now. As for this insistence that FF7 must have weakened enough to be seriously considered for losing in the finals... that to me speaks of too much caution for the smarting Zelda > FF gave people in 2006. Putting aside the fact that 2006 was very likely the peak of Nintendo popularity on this site (to say nothing of the hype echo chamber that TP created)... you have to believe OoT would just manhandle FF7 today, or that FFX has to make the finals. If neither of those premises come to pass, FF7 is guaranteed to win this contest in the same way that Sephiroth was to win the Villains Contest - unquestionably. Those are very specific circumstances. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/31/2009 10:53:17 AM | message detail |
|
Or, to put it another way - for those considering OoT > FF7 in the finals, what do you think it gets on FF7 1v1? --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 10:54:48 AM | message detail |
|
Yeah, I don't know why people are even bringing this up, especially
when the most likely third game to make the finals is the second
strongest title from... THE ZELDA SERIES DUN DUN DUUUUUUUN --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 3/31/2009 11:06:58 AM | message detail |
|
Agreed - in the final, Ocarina is going to get one of the two games it
would least like to meet (probably LttP, maybe SMB3), and, while FFX
would be detrimental to FFVII, it would certainly not be of the same
magnitude as LttP or Mario 3. FFVII gets the championship handed to it
on a silver platter in this bracket. I really hope we get a +1 format
with the two finalists in a one on one match, but we wanted the same
thing after L's run and had no luck so bleh. --- Mustache...and Green... http://backloggery.com/rpguy96 |
| ZFS | Posted 3/31/2009 11:09:55 AM | message detail |
|
If the final two are FFVII and OoT (which they should be, but jokez), I
could see him running a 1v1 match the next day. Hopefully he does,
anyway! --- doth thou desire the power |
| NutsWearhouse | Posted 3/31/2009 12:04:55 PM | message detail |
|
that or Big Rigs/Operation Shadow/Barbie's Horse Adventure/Zero Wing --- You're gonna love my nuts, I guarantee it. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/31/2009 12:07:49 PM | message detail |
|
We should have gotten Link vs. Everyone. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
