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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 660

KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 4:58:37 PM | message detail
If you want to, of course. I'm pretty sure everyone here appreciated those.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/28/2009 5:00:27 PM | message detail
I still have the ones from the last contest saved on my computer if someone wants to archive them on the Wiki or something. Archiving isn't really my specialty.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 5:01:17 PM | message detail
Send them to me, if you want. I've got nothing better to do.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/28/2009 5:45:50 PM | message detail
I might be totally insane, but...

...I've now got SF2 into the finals
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/28/2009 5:55:50 PM | message detail
One less bracket to worry about.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/28/2009 5:56:50 PM | message detail
It seems to have the best path any game could hope for. Every match is full of massive SFF with it being unaffected.

I'll likely change it before the brackets lock, but I don't know
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/28/2009 5:58:37 PM | message detail
I don't think SFII can beat World even with Mario 3 there. Mario 3 would have to obliterate it for that to happen.

It could happen, but still...World is clearly two steps above SFII.
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transience | Posted 3/28/2009 6:00:17 PM | message detail
Mario RPG being the first step.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/28/2009 6:00:51 PM | message detail
I had SFII going crazily far (semis?), but yeah, I halted that as soon as I replaced Mega Man 3 with FFIV.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3361

It's hard to argue against that. FFIV wins despite fighting off a truckload of overlapping competition. Of course, if Mega Man 3 shocks me and makes it, forcing a SMB3/SMW/MM3/SFII match, I'd take Street Fighter to win outright there. It'd basically be going up against three of the same game.
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creativename | Posted 3/28/2009 6:00:57 PM | message detail
Ulti
I wouldn't mind a character contest that potentially included all VG characters, regardless of whether they began in a game or not. Lots of new blood, like Darth Vader or the Terminator.

I thought this was just a given - it would always be "appeared in a video game" characters. That eliminates virtually nobody anyway, any character who'd have any semblance of strength has appeared in a game.

And yes, while I'm totally against a 4-way VG appearance contest, using examples like Jar Jar is silly - the characters people are interested are Batman, Spider-Man, Vader, Han Solo, Indiana Jones, Jack Sparrow, etc. Not junk nobody-gives-a-crap characters.

Not really, just look at the polls. You can't tell me MGS4 gaining insane amounts of strength over a 3-day period is because of natural strength.

I'm with Yesmar - what are you referring to? In the many-way poll MGS4 actually won, and that's the poll where anti-voting would have least effect. In the heads-up poll, where anti-voting would be more effective by far, it lost.


KamikazePotato
Thank god I'm one of the few people here who kind of likes 4-ways. These "every 4-way character battle will suck" comments makes me wonder how long some of you are going to stay here.

I'm only here because of the Oracle. 4-way contests would have very little interest for me otherwise.

They're obviously here to stay for a while, so you might as well enjoy them as much as possible.

Um...we are...duh? That's what we're doing in this topic. That doesn't mean they don't blow, relatively speaking.

I don't get this whining about anti-4way whining - people will always be ranting against 4-ways, because they're just not as fun or exciting for the majority of people. The whining is 'obviously here to stay for a while', so get used to it.

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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 6:00:59 PM | message detail
Started the archiving process.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Summer_2008_Match_Trends

Suggestions? Sorry that the columns aren't lined up perfectly, but that would take a ton of time to do.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/28/2009 6:02:01 PM | message detail
The thing that I'm pretty unclear about though is SF2s real strength.

For one, we don't know how strong SMRPG really is. Its Square + Nintendo, a recipe for success on this site... and in round 2 it likely lost its square support against Chrono Trigger yet still held up very well. But if SMRPG really is as strong as I think it might be, then SF2 shouldn't be underestimated. Obviously it won't beat any of those games like Super Mario World without SFF, but with an SFF filled path makes me just wonder what it can really do.

And the other thing. Ensemble casts normally have the games being stronger then the characters. But Ryu, if we look at only its performance against SMRPG, is stronger then his game, which isnt usual for Ensemble cast games. This is my other reasoning for thinking that Super Mario RPG is actually alot stronger then we thought.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/28/2009 6:02:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, lining up the columns was always a pain. That's why I inserted a "|" between everything so it's easier to read.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 6:04:15 PM | message detail
Um...we are...duh? That's what we're doing in this topic. That doesn't mean they don't blow, relatively speaking.

I don't get this whining about anti-4way whining - people will always be ranting against 4-ways, because they're just not as fun or exciting for the majority of people. The whining is 'obviously here to stay for a while', so get used to it.


I'm not whining, I'm wondering. I always try to just go with what happens - makes me enjoy life a lot more - and it seems to me that people here would be enjoying themselves a lot more if they just begrudgingly accepted 4-ways. Embrace the insanity, if you must.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/28/2009 6:34:05 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Summer_2008_Match_Trends#Round_1

I wrote a quick script to format that time stuff in tables...if you give me the whole input file I can do the whole thing instead of what KP has already put up.
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Whalecore | Posted 3/28/2009 6:38:01 PM | message detail
I'm not whining, I'm wondering. I always try to just go with what happens - makes me enjoy life a lot more - and it seems to me that people here would be enjoying themselves a lot more if they just begrudgingly accepted 4-ways. Embrace the insanity, if you must.

If they decided to turn a soccer game from 1v1 to 4-ways I'd stop being a fan.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 6:42:44 PM | message detail
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=8YWF4888

Knock yourself out, RPGuy.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/28/2009 6:53:52 PM | message detail
Done.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/28/2009 6:57:33 PM | message detail
Man, way to upstage my awesome archiving abilities!

(that just saved me a few hours of work and looks a lot better, nice job)

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/28/2009 6:58:49 PM | message detail
Amazing what twenty lines of python can do!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/28/2009 7:23:32 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #162
This is my other reasoning for thinking that Super Mario RPG is actually alot stronger then we thought.


And yet you'd easily take RE2 to school it?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Yesmar | Posted 3/28/2009 7:42:36 PM | message detail
If I might plug my own projects, I have hourly updates for all of 2005's matches, plus a few others that I posted a year or so ago in case anyone wants to archive those:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=572228&topic=43938411

Note: DK/Duck Hunt has bad numbers for the last hour!

I have most of Sp2004's first round as well, but I never posted them, since I was waiting to finish the whole thing at some point. I'll try to get them up at some point later.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/28/2009 7:48:35 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #171
And yet you'd easily take RE2 to school it?


I've since reconsidered that.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/28/2009 7:59:09 PM | message detail
If they decided to turn a soccer game from 1v1 to 4-ways I'd stop being a fan.

Agreed, I've always meant to make that point. Would people care nearly as much about March Madness if it was done in a four-way format?

Of course not.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 10:46:26 PM | message detail
Since we're calling projects, I reserve my Post-Contest Analysis birthright.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 3/28/2009 11:13:01 PM | message detail
Hail Ulti!
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/29/2009 6:30:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 3/29/2009 6:31:17 AM | message detail
I'll take my pre-contest analysis.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/29/2009 6:45:05 AM | message detail
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/28/2009 9:34:05 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Summer_2008_Match_Trends#Round_1

I wrote a quick script to format that time stuff in tables...if you give me the whole input file I can do the whole thing instead of what KP has already put up.


Oh cool, the match trends were place on the Wiki finally. I liked those.

Quick question for Leon:

When you do your match trends, if there was a 14:28 update and a 14:33 update, which update would you use to calculate the trends for the DSV? (ASV starts at 14:30 if you remember correctly)

I noticed that the trends I had for the last bonus match were slightly different than what you had, but only for the DSV, ASV, and SNV. This is because I had used the 14:33 update to calculate the DSV trends. I used the 14:33 update because it was the first update that came in after the ASV started. The 14:28 update came in before the start of the ASV.
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Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/29/2009 7:33:00 AM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | Posted: 3/29/2009 2:13:01 AM | #172
Hail Ulti!


:D

I vowed not to do PCAs until we got our 1v1s back, and this will likely continue with future 4-way character battles. But a games contest? This contest? All mine. I'm totally stoked for this, and can't wait for it to finally start.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/29/2009 10:14:53 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 vs Halo 3 in rounds 1 and 2. Who wins?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 10:19:00 AM | message detail
Fallout 3
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/29/2009 10:21:33 AM | message detail
I have Fallout 3, but I wouldn't be surprised if Halo 3 takes it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/29/2009 10:31:54 AM | message detail
FO3. Halo 3 has shown it can be beaten at its own game on its own system when CoD4 demolished it, so I've lost some respect for it...plus I think FO3 is closer to SSBB than Halo 3 can get to SMG. It will also probably be fun to see FO3 go against two 360-exclusives and a multi-platform game it's already beaten worse than GTA4 before.

FO3 should look good in R1.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 3/29/2009 10:33:09 AM | message detail
I have Fallout 3 > Halo 3 in round 1, then MGS4 > Fallout 3 in round 2.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 3/29/2009 12:34:53 PM | message detail
I have Halo 3 > Fallout 3 in the first round, I just believe Halo 3 has far too much brand recognition on the 360. I could very well be wrong here and treat this as an upset pick.

Though I have MGS4 > Halo 3 in the second round because I don't have that much faith in MC.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 12:36:11 PM | message detail
Call of Duty 4 beating Halo 3 in the Goty poll makes me wodner just how loyal Xbox fans are to Halo, though.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 3/29/2009 12:38:32 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48819393

I need some help folks
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SonicRaptor | Posted 3/29/2009 12:39:36 PM | message detail
CoD4 was also released for the PS3 and is pretty successful on Sony's system, there is a little overlapping there.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 12:41:04 PM | message detail
Thats true, but CoD4 was mainly 360 when it came to consoles. It was the most played XBL title for a year after all.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/29/2009 12:55:23 PM | message detail
Tag
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creativename | Posted 3/29/2009 9:59:59 PM | message detail
I think Fallout's a pretty decent-sized favorite in this match - which is kind of a weird turn around for the Halo series. Just imagine how odd it would be to see the Halo franchise actually turning an about-face on it's whole contest history and pulling off the upset for once!

Halo - trendy upset choice? Could Halo be the Felix of this contest?! O_O

Speaking of that 4-pack, how the hell did Left 4 Dead make it anyway...I just looked over the bracket to find if there were any other games I knew nothing about, and I think that and Persona are the only ones I'd never heard of before (and I *might* have heard of Persona). I guess since it was released just recently it got a fresh-in-memory boost.

Still, this bracket has a ton of terrific games, and the nomination period was up for a looong time, so it probably took a significant amount noms to make it. Surprising this game made it - did it have a rally or something?
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
transience | Posted 3/29/2009 10:02:05 PM | message detail
L4D's pretty darn popular amongst message board types. same with Persona.

L4D's sold over a million copies so it's not some obscure niche game. it's quite popular.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
TheOceIot | Posted 3/29/2009 10:07:08 PM | message detail
Left 4 Dead sold 2.5 million at retail alone.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 3/29/2009 10:28:52 PM | message detail
L4D is surprisingly popular online, I've seen several large communities devoted to online play. It would not surprise me if it finished ahead of Mass Effect.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 11:14:38 PM | message detail
I woulda been surprised if Left 4 Dead DIDN'T make it. I've actually got Fallout 3 > Left 4 Dead, since Left 4 Dead is THE XBL title atm, so I think the Halo 3 fans have jump ship to L4D.
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ZFS | Posted 3/29/2009 11:26:33 PM | message detail
I gotta say, Albion, you manage to get further and further off every time you talk about what people are playing on XBL.

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doth thou desire the power
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 11:27:14 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #197
I gotta say, Albion, you manage to get further and further off every time you talk about what people are playing on XBL.


Well last I saw, it was number 1.
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ZFS | Posted 3/29/2009 11:30:18 PM | message detail
This is the most recent XBL games.

Xbox 360 Top Live Titles (based on UU’s)
1 Call of Duty: WaW
2 Halo 3
3 Call of Duty 4
4 RESIDENT EVIL 5
5 Gears of War 2
6 GTA IV
7 Halo Wars
8 FIFA 09
9 Left 4 Dead
10 Guitar Hero World Tour

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doth thou desire the power
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/29/2009 11:31:13 PM | message detail
Huh then its really fallen off. I last saw it like 2 months ago and it was number 1, I figured it would have lasting power
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