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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 660

KamikazePotato | Posted 3/27/2009 9:42:41 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt Jar Jar gets in, be realistic

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Yesmar | Posted 3/27/2009 9:42:44 PM | message detail
who the hell mourns atticus finch

So you would be OK with Atticus Finch not even breaking 20% against Princess Amidala?
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/27/2009 9:43:50 PM | message detail
"oops"

Well, judging by the reaction to this bracket, I'd say you're in a minority, my dear! People reacted with outright hostility when Bacon unveiled this bracket, and that's despite a type of contest we've been clamoring for (and despite a very exciting finish to last year's contest). If there's no change to the format, then I think most of the board would really be in favor of a change to the players. Darth Vader and Batman might kill your interests, but another standard 4way will kill other peoples', including mine.

That's why I plan to promote this idea and gain as much support as I can, so you better hope I get lazy!
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 3/27/2009 9:44:56 PM | message detail
I would be okay with it because I wouldn't care at all. heck, I'd probably vote Princess Amidala because she's hotter than Atticus Finch. when Atticus Finch grows some jugs, we can come back to this.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/27/2009 9:46:19 PM | message detail
All I know is that neither Calvin nor Hobbes would make it in, and then I would see to it that GameFAQs would burn.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/27/2009 9:46:26 PM | message detail
Atticus Finch might not even get in. He's a great character, but uhhh he's not up against Queen Amidala.

BATMAN
SPIDER-MAN
DARTH VADER
WOLVERINE

Big-name characters don't start and end in the realm of gaming.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 3/27/2009 9:47:58 PM | message detail
apparently they start and end in comic books!

zzzzzzzzz
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Warning_Cmexy | Posted 3/27/2009 9:48:58 PM | message detail
just reading one post

Atticus Finch is a ****ing badass
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cyclo is attractive
ZFS | Posted 3/27/2009 9:49:03 PM | message detail
comic book characters get this away

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http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/27/2009 9:49:08 PM | message detail
That contest should have caps on...everything. No need to see 10 Simpsons characters in because no one knows who else to nominate.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Yesmar | Posted 3/27/2009 9:50:32 PM | message detail
I'd probably vote Princess Amidala because she's hotter than Atticus Finch.

What is this, I don't even

Agh at the comic book dominance though. So much I don't care about there. I actually find anime characters more interesting despite my utter lack of knowledge or caring in that area. They seem like much bigger wildcards.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/27/2009 9:50:44 PM | message detail
Well, if I mention Homer Simpson, Jack Bauer, Mickey Mouse, and, hell, characters with massive range like Harry Potter, I get "no thanks."

For the first time in my Stats Topic life, I'm feeling compelled to drop the E word.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/27/2009 9:51:50 PM | message detail
Harry Potter doesn't have 'massive range'. He'd be a midcarder of some form, that's all.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/27/2009 9:53:55 PM | message detail
E word?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/27/2009 9:54:05 PM | message detail
He could be fodder or very competitive, imo. It's not like he'll be subjected to killer fanbase splits. Or maybe he will! How many people have read the books? Can he rally? Are there populated fansites?

See! Massive range!

"augh no thanks let's see how many Nintendo characters Shadow can fold to instead"
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/27/2009 9:56:18 PM | message detail
I think Harry Potter would be some sort of hybrid between Master Chief and Pikachu, except not as strong.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Yesmar | Posted 3/27/2009 9:56:37 PM | message detail
He could be fodder or very competitive, imo. It's not like he'll be subjected to killer fanbase splits. Or maybe he will! How many people have read the books? Can he rally? Are there populated fansites?

Back in '05 Harry Potter fans rallied 2,000 votes to IMDB's end of the year polls. These were polls about the movies, that you had to register to vote in and which were not just on the front page.

I'm just throwing that out there.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
creativename | Posted 3/27/2009 10:05:48 PM | message detail
OK, so I went back and found Ulti's RE4/MGS4/TP analysis. Going by those GOTY polls, 3363 and 3364, Fallout wouldn't get blown out by Brawl - if you think those are good contest proxies it'd be between 40%-45% against Brawl. That's not too far off.

In the 2007-2009 divsion final, let's assume it'll be Brawl vs. Galaxy vs. MG4 vs. Fallout 3. I'd never even remotely considered this before, but wouldn't Fallout 3 actually have a shot at placing 2nd then? Brawl and Galaxy have to have some sort of split, and let's say Galaxy isn't too far off from Brawl. Fallout 3 doesn't have much ground to make up then.

I find it really difficult to have Fallout 3 placing there - no chance I put it there really. But logically, it really seems possible - especially if you think Brawl is stronger than Galaxy.

The only thing logic I can come up against Fallout 3 is that the Galaxy/Brawl split will be minor (a very dubious thing to believe), or that Fallout isn't as strong as the GOTY polls indicated (I guess I'll go with this).


Ulti
*If* MGS4 is equal to Brawl in strength like the recent GOTY poll indicates, then I'm positive it's stronger than pre-RE5 RE4.

Why do you think this? Is it that you think Galaxy was hampered enough in that GOTC poll that it is a lot stronger than RE4?

And if that's the case (you believe that Galaxy>Brawl>RE4) I don't see how you can just plug MGS4 into San Andreas' spot later in your analysis, because that would make Brawl a ton weaker than RE4.

But I do have RE4>MGS4 in my bracket right now, albeit with great uncertainty. I'm not really considering putting TP there though - I think TP has some shot, but I wouldn't put it my bracket there. I just don't know if we have too much to go on with regards to RE4 vs. MGS4.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Yesmar | Posted 3/27/2009 10:15:37 PM | message detail
I find it really difficult to have Fallout 3 placing there - no chance I put it there really. But logically, it really seems possible - especially if you think Brawl is stronger than Galaxy.

I think the counterargument would be that if you think Fallout 3 can take down one of them, then Call of Duty 4 might be able to take down one of them the round before.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
creativename | Posted 3/27/2009 10:43:28 PM | message detail
Not really, CoD4 was plenty far off from Galaxy in those two GOTY polls. It only works out to about 34%-36% on Galaxy based on those polls. That's a lot more than what Fallout 3 showed against Brawl.

So Fallout 3 being capable of an upset doesn't really mean CoD4 is as well. The only way CoD4 is really capable of advancing is if Brawl is significantly weaker than Galaxy, because there's no way CoD4 is beating out Galaxy even with a big split.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Yesmar | Posted 3/27/2009 10:47:43 PM | message detail
It only works out to about 34%-36% on Galaxy based on those polls. That's a lot more than what Fallout 3 showed against Brawl.

But that's based on polls with Halo 3 in them, which CoD4 was undoubtedly leeching heavily with.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Gaddswell | Posted 3/28/2009 12:29:22 AM | message detail
Which of the three current consoles do you now own?
All three of them 13.57% 3243
360 and PS3 5.68% 1359
360 and Wii 20.4% 4878
PS3 and Wii 9.57% 2289
Just a 360 14.94% 3572
Just a PS3 9.49% 2269
Just a Wii 14.86% 3552
None of them 11.48% 2745
TOTAL VOTES 23907

Just a 360 > Just a Wii
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transience | Posted 3/28/2009 12:30:00 AM | message detail
Wii takes it back in the daytime, but yeah, we've got a pretty split site now. Wii60 domination.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Lopen | Posted 3/28/2009 12:37:10 AM | message detail
Aw yeah 360.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Mr3790 | Posted 3/28/2009 12:55:32 AM | message detail
Nintendo FAQS<360 FAQS

CONFIRMED!
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!
creativename | Posted 3/28/2009 1:08:35 AM | message detail
But that's based on polls with Halo 3 in them, which CoD4 was undoubtedly leeching heavily with.

I know Halo 3 would've been hurting CoD4, but even combined they don't outdo Galaxy by much. There's only so much overlap that's gong to be there. There's too much ground to make up for it to catch Galaxy.

Before looking at the POTDs, I considered the CoD4 upset for a second, but the Fallout 3 upset never crossed my mind. But if these POTDs mean anything, Fallout 3 is a significantly better upset choice than CoD4.

It would affect stuff quite a bit too if it happens, since then suddenly TP becomes the favorite in the next round.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
bogalx | Posted 3/28/2009 1:21:33 AM | message detail
Wait, so we're expecting both Galaxy and Brawl to advance here? That has to be one of the biggest SFF-fests in the bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/28/2009 4:16:27 AM | message detail
I'd love to know where all this confidence in Galaxy > Brawl comes from. I took Brawl there without thinking twice and the Galaxy logic is shaky at best. Seems like another one of those painfully obvious results that the board misses because of statistic blinders.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MeteorMercenary | Posted 3/28/2009 4:25:38 AM | message detail
Seems like another one of those painfully obvious results that the board misses because of statistic blinders.

You are correct. Reminds me of Donkey Kong > Vivi.
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Meteor Mercenary, the legend of legends.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 4:27:13 AM | message detail
Galaxy AND Brawl will not get past Call of Duty 4. You can look at today's poll for proof enough of that.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/28/2009 4:32:51 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 3/28/2009 5:16:27 AM | #078
I'd love to know where all this confidence in Galaxy > Brawl comes from. I took Brawl there without thinking twice and the Galaxy logic is shaky at best. Seems like another one of those painfully obvious results that the board misses because of statistic blinders.


Brawl hasn't been as strong as Melee in polls since pre-release, if that makes sense. It's be a strong game, but nothing close to elite. It also looked pathetic in its GOTY, while Galaxy stomped its own GOTY. The only thing Galaxy needs to win is the Nintendo split in that match, and pretty much every sign points to this happening. Galaxy would never struggle against MGS4 in a poll.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
MeteorMercenary | Posted 3/28/2009 4:34:27 AM | message detail
Galaxy would never struggle against MGS4 in a poll.

A cute assumption.
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Meteor Mercenary, the legend of legends.
Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/28/2009 4:38:10 AM | message detail
Not really, just look at the polls. You can't tell me MGS4 gaining insane amounts of strength over a 3-day period is because of natural strength. That was Brawl anti-voting. Frankly I'm not dismissing either game's chances, because it's about even. All I argue is the Nintendo split will likely favor Galaxy in that match.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/28/2009 4:39:29 AM | message detail
Or even today's poll. Like, 25% of the site owns a PS3, yet half of the site voted for MGS4 in the GOTY final. That's ludicrous.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
voltch | Posted 3/28/2009 4:52:09 AM | message detail
just wait till the europeans vote.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
greatone10 | Posted 3/28/2009 5:19:44 AM | message detail
Of course, that could also be franchise voting.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Gaddswell | Posted 3/28/2009 5:33:30 AM | message detail
Which of the three current consoles do you now own?
All three of them 13.14% 5430
360 and PS3 5.66% 2340
360 and Wii 19.41% 8020
PS3 and Wii 9.59% 3964
Just a 360 14.63% 6044
Just a PS3 10.19% 4212
Just a Wii 14.65% 6055
None of them 12.72% 5255
TOTAL VOTES 41320

Just a Wii back up front over Just a 360.
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voltch | Posted 3/28/2009 5:45:53 AM | message detail
tbh i expected ps3 to be more than 4% behind,i thought it'd get about half of w/e wii360 got,it really never did seem like a console of choice.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 5:51:24 AM | message detail
I like how well "none of them" is doing.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
voltch | Posted 3/28/2009 6:16:55 AM | message detail
ps2 still a force then?
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
red sox 777 | Posted 3/28/2009 6:21:24 AM | message detail
I really don't want to see non-video game characters in a contest, especially not comic book characters.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
voltch | Posted 3/28/2009 6:43:39 AM | message detail
non VG character contest on a site like this would be horrible imo,sure it'd inpredictable but hannibal lector vs jarjar binks is something i do not want.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
charmander6000 | Posted 3/28/2009 6:46:09 AM | message detail
non-videogame characters are fine, just as long as they've appeared in a videogame.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 6:46:20 AM | message detail
I wouldn't mind a character contest that potentially included all VG characters, regardless of whether they began in a game or not. Lots of new blood, like Darth Vader or the Terminator.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
voltch | Posted 3/28/2009 6:52:22 AM | message detail
come to think of it,this board would just collapse when goku meets batman,with those hailing batman as the epitome of cool and best character ever and the opposition hailing the massive influence goku has had on manga in general.

then there's bond vs bourne and all the other badass action heroes,take a McMurphy a Schindler or even a Terry Malloy they would get slaughtered by your predators and alien with a pinch of post Aronofsky Robocop.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 7:36:30 AM | message detail
I just now realized the contest starts in less than a week. I can't wait, this could be awesome.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/28/2009 8:38:45 AM | message detail

From: greatone10 | #086
Of course, that could also be franchise voting.


There's a chance it could be, but at the same time Brawl dominated both galaxy and metal gear in hype polls.

Also not to mention that the first two polls with them together (what's the best in 2008 so far?) had them nowhere near each other.

It's more likely Brawl is just ****.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/28/2009 8:44:28 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | Posted: 3/28/2009 11:38:45 AM | #095
There's a chance it could be, but at the same time Brawl dominated both galaxy and metal gear in hype polls.

Also not to mention that the first two polls with them together (what's the best in 2008 so far?) had them nowhere near each other.

It's more likely Brawl is just ****.


The latter, most likely. Melee grew stronger over time (http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776), while Brawl only seems to get weaker with each new poll it's in. Ironically enough, Melee franchise votes might be the only thing to save it from getting the ass end of a Galaxy split.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
Yesmar | Posted 3/28/2009 8:50:19 AM | message detail
Not really, just look at the polls. You can't tell me MGS4 gaining insane amounts of strength over a 3-day period is because of natural strength.

MGS4 did worse in relation to Brawl as the days went on. And the changes it underwent weren't close to being "insane" anyway.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/28/2009 9:27:02 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3150
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3164

In two weeks MGS4 went from losing to GTAIV and being almost doubled by SSBB to beating GTAIV and cutting the lead Brawl created. What I'm trying to say is that MGS4 probably experiences from franchise voting more than other games.
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