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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 659

The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/25/2009 9:49:45 PM | message detail
The amount of North Americans have went down 4-5% since 4 years ago.

omg CT is so screwed
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/25/2009 11:23:54 PM | message detail
http://www.wowinsider.com/2009/03/25/blizzard-vs-relic-entertainment-in-the-escapists-march-mayhem/

WoW Insider isn't shy about posting stories to start rallies, and their stories can easily get 10k views in a day if not more

Just putting that out there.
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voltch | Posted 3/26/2009 12:35:43 AM | message detail
oh btw,are there any upcoming events were an annoucement could give a nice hype boost to a franchise?
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/26/2009 5:49:49 AM | message detail
Well, this feels like a completely pointless poll to run right after the one we had yesterday.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/26/2009 5:56:03 AM | message detail
Well yesterday at this time we had 70% of voters selecting that they live at (or near) North America, right now adding US, Canada and Mexico we have about 67%.

I'm guessing that 3% of voters live in Central America or the Carribean.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 3/26/2009 8:33:08 AM | message detail
So the majority think RE4 will beat TP, why?

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 8:38:26 AM | message detail
They're probably relying on the TP/Brawl or Galaxy split.

Though I was thinking about that very last match with Fallout 3 and gang. It's possible Left 4 Dead could sneak a third place.. but that would have to rely on Halo 3 splitting with something..

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2994

Not sure if Left 4 Dead would even place higher than Halo 3 there, and there certainly isn't any Action Shooter besides it and Halo .. I think? I never played any of these games.
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Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/26/2009 8:52:15 AM | message detail
Mass Effect did much better on Halo 3 than Left 4 Dead did on Fallout 3.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2989
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3358

Left 4 Dead could sneak third if Halo 3 SFF Mass Effect though second would require Fallout 3 to be much stronger than Halo 3.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 8:57:40 AM | message detail
I'm also worried that CoD 4 is another GTA-ish game that drops off the face of the Earth. the 07 game of the year poll was only a few months after it came out, right?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 9:00:46 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #408
Mass Effect did much better on Halo 3 than Left 4 Dead did on Fallout 3.


I consider Fallout 3/Call of Duty 4 a close match, and if Halo 3's strength is really what it was in 07, it could actually end up being close.

I just have no idea how these weird FPS genres are going to split because I've never played any of these games.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 9:08:42 AM | message detail
Well actually I've played Left 4 Dead and Halo 3..
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 10:17:36 AM | message detail
Fallout 3 and Mass Effect are pretty similar, both having RPG elements that really make them practically not FPS games.

Left4Dead focuses on co-op as a main element of the game

Halo 3 is classic FPS

Actually, looking at that, Left4Dead has a really good shot of coming second there.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 10:19:53 AM | message detail
What CoD4 (and Halo 3) have going for them are that they are both easily the most played games on XBL. Whereas Mass Effect is a one and done single player game that hasn't had any DLC since it came out pretty much.

That match really is a crapshoot
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 10:39:28 AM | message detail
So Halo 3 is the game that actually stands out? Not Left 4 Dead?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/26/2009 10:56:09 AM | message detail
I'm bored so I've counted the number of returning games in each division and what division they were in last contest.

72-88
8-bit - 9
Donkey Kong
Tetris
Pac-Man
Pong
Duck Hunt
Galaga
Contra
Metroid
The Legend of Zelda

89-91
8-bit - 3
Super Mario Bros. 3
Final Fantasy
River City Ransom

16-bit - 2
Street Fighter II
Super Mario World

92-94
16-bit - 8
Gunstar Heroes
Super Metroid
Doom
LoZ: A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy III (VI)
Phantasy Star IV
Secret of Mana
Sonic the Hedgehog 2

95-97
16-bit - 3
Super Mario RPG
Chrono Trigger
Earthbound

32/64-bit - 5
GoldenEye 007
Final Fantasy VII
Castlevania: SotN
Resident Evil
Super Mario 64

98-00
32/64-bit - 6
Perfect Dark
Final Fantasy Tactics
Metal Gear Solid
Pokemon G/S
Xenogears
LoZ: Ocarina of Time

128-bit - 3
Soul Calibur
Starcraft
Half-Life

01-03
128-bit - 10
Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid 2
GTA: Vice City
Kingdom Hearts
Metroid Prime
Halo
Star Wars: KotOR
Fire Emblem
Super Smash Bros. Melee
LoZ: The Wind Waker

The other two divisions never existed last contest. So the other divisions have between 8-10 old entrants with the exception of 89-91, though that can be explained by the 8-bit division having the largest amount of years along with the 72-88 division and that the SNES didn't start kicking ass until later in its life. The 32/64-bit division is the most split while the others all clumping to one division. Also based on returning games the 16-bit division is the only one that spans 3 divisions.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/26/2009 10:59:46 AM | message detail
why are people calling Fallout 3 a fps

just because its first person doesn't mean its a fps. Hell, you don't even have to shoot yourself, you can do the turn based system to shoot specific body parts
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XxSoulxX | Posted 3/26/2009 12:34:28 PM | message detail
why are people calling Fallout 3 a fps

It's the same reason why people call Half-Life 2 an FPS. Because they are.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/26/2009 12:46:33 PM | message detail
Is FO3 less of a FPS than, say, MP? Because I would probably call MP a FPS.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/26/2009 12:53:21 PM | message detail
It's definitely less of a FPS than MP. It's pretty much the same as Oblivion really. If you call one a FPS then you'd call the other one. If not one than not the other
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BesaidGuy | Posted 3/26/2009 1:26:37 PM | message detail
As the contest looms closer I have one question that keeps coming up

Will Chrono Trigger start fading like its characters.

Each year, Chrono/Frog/Magus seem to get weaker in character contests.

Will CT suffer the same way?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 1:27:17 PM | message detail
It probably did suffer a few years back, but perhaps the DS version saved it from falling out too far.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 1:27:58 PM | message detail
Not with CTDS it won't! And as for CT fading even without it.....CT characters looked a bit better in 2008 than 2007, actually.
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Meeks54 | Posted 3/26/2009 1:29:56 PM | message detail

From: BesaidGuy | #420
As the contest looms closer I have one question that keeps coming up

Will Chrono Trigger start fading like its characters.

Each year, Chrono/Frog/Magus seem to get weaker in character contests.

Will CT suffer the same way?




Magus has completely died, yes.

Frog over performed last year, and Crono showed that without Link killing him, he can do in Vincent. While it is true that Crono will probably never be the 4th strongest character again, I doubt it changes that CT will be the 3rd strongest game. What will hurt it is FF VI and VII SFF when it meets the 4th strongest game.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 1:35:34 PM | message detail
Oh, CT probably wasn't the 3rd strongest game in recent years. LTTP had probably been ahead of it since 2005, up until this year with CTDS. I think Melee and Mario 3 could have taken CT in 2007 also. The Deboost and CTDS have changed things though.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 2:26:49 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #414
So Halo 3 is the game that actually stands out? Not Left 4 Dead?


Halo 3 and L4D both stand out, but Halo 3 was going to win that fourpack anyways so it didn't need to be said.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/26/2009 2:28:48 PM | message detail
Not with CTDS it won't! And as for CT fading even without it.....CT characters looked a bit better in 2008 than 2007, actually.

Disagree. Crono swung his rematch, yes, but he needed "help" to do so, and it wasn't a particularly positive year for FFVII anyway. Frog couldn't beat or even come close to a Samus impaired Ganondorf, which the illustrious Mr. Freeman could. Magus looked absolutely awful; not only did he completely die against a bag of sand during the day, he looked like crap since Sandbag was completely pathetic the next round, losing handily to Sub-Zero.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:15:13 PM | message detail
It's hard to tell really, but the key for me is that CT didn't have any genuinely horrible performances in 2008, while it had 3 in 2007 (all of the round 2 matches). I did and still do consider Magus losing to Sandbag respectable- it's a joke character in a 4-way poll. It certainly isn't up to Magus's standards for failure.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/26/2009 3:15:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, the notion that CT somehow had a "rebound" last year is fault and faulty and wrought with faultiness.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:18:16 PM | message detail
CT characters did look better last year, though.

Well, Frog and Crono anyway. They neither of them completely collapsed during the daytime like they had in '07. And the notion that FFVII wasn't impressive is just false. FFVII was doing fine until Super Snake came around.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/26/2009 3:22:33 PM | message detail
I'm afraid that I have to agree with RPGuy and Yoblazer. Crono needed a rally to avoid another loss to Vincent (and Final Fantasy 7 just wasn't having a good year either), Frog never even came close to threatening a Ganondorf that was being SFF'd by Samus (yet Gordon Freeman did), and Magus was just TERRIBLE. Not only did he roll over and die to a bag of sand during the day, he was also made to look like crap when Sandbag got blown away by Sub-Zero (and this was all during a contest in which Smash Bros. entries tanked, mind you).
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:29:26 PM | message detail
Not so much a rebound as a stabilization. It failed to make new lows and gained support at a level a tad bit above them. Whether that is a momentary pause or a reversal of direction is yet to be seen, although I guess CTDS makes that rather irrelevant.

Interestingly enough....Nintendo stock price and its performance in Gamefaqs contests are quite strongly correlated.

The stock price hit a low in 2003 as Square ran the table, recovered some in 2004 as Nintendo fought back to parity with Square, and began skyrocketing in December 2005, a few months after Nintendo boosted massively in the 2005 Summer Contest. This trend continued with Nintendo getting stronger on the market and on Gamefaqs until November 2007, when L-Block vanquished Link and Nintendo stock hit an all time high. Since then, the stock has lost aout 50% of its value, and the Deboost occurred.

I wonder how much of this is coincidence.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/26/2009 3:30:11 PM | message detail
Chrono Trigger may not have "bombed" aside from Magus, but it certainly didn't have an impressive year. Crono needed the last-hour rallying (which I was proudly a part of, hoorah), and then he still couldn't hit 40% against Link despite Mario and Samus in the poll. Of course, even bringing up the L-Block matches is really dubious, because the Crono that ousted L-Block is the same one that let Pikachu break 46% on him. And then, of course, Magus was a complete embarrassment, and Frog couldn't do what Gordon did rather easily.

I'd say CT's most impressive 2008 performance is Frog's easy win over KOS-MOS.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:33:21 PM | message detail
Crono needed the last hour rallying, yeah, but the fact of the matter was that he was in the match for the full 24 hours, as opposed to him being down and out by like 10:00am last year.

I never claimed CT was impressive in '08, but it was certainly better than it was in '07.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 3:35:49 PM | message detail
CT didn't rebound at all. Crono slightly improved his number against Vincent, Frog completely jobbed in his match and Magus had the single most crappy performance in the contest.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:37:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, Crono and co. didn't do well in 2008 relative to their historical standards, but they did absolutely horribly in 2007. Failing to beat Ganondorf with Samus in the poll while Gordon succeeds isn't as bad as getting creamed by Scorpion, especially considering Ganondorf did a lot worse against Samus in round 3 than round 2. In fact, Frog and Gordon got quite similar percentages on Samus.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:45:22 PM | message detail
I'll admit FFVII looked less than great though. FFVII looked last year sort of like CT did in 2005- hard to find grounds to claim a drop, but nonetheless a lack of impressive matches. Also, it underwent a weakening of the day vote last year- Cloud and Sephiroth didn't rise through the whole day last year as they used to- they tended to stagnate by the time they got to morning, and lost the ASV to anybody with day vote strength. Vincent and finally Cloud himself paid for it.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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ZFS | Posted 3/26/2009 3:47:19 PM | message detail
FFVII looked fine last contest, until we got near the end when the joke started kicking in for Snake. Needless to say, I don't think anyone here would be taking Snake over Cloud in a normal match -- or at least I hope not.

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voltch | Posted 3/26/2009 3:47:57 PM | message detail
but VII was having a pretty good year,square in general had it good and only screwed itself over with the LFF,but really tis can only mean old an new square might be more closely linked than we first thought.
i'm sure the fanbases of old/new SE stuff isn't thta divided.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/26/2009 3:51:51 PM | message detail
FFVII looked fine last contest, until we got near the end when the joke started kicking in for Snake. Needless to say, I don't think anyone here would be taking Snake over Cloud in a normal match -- or at least I hope not.

I dunno about you, but when someone with Cloud's level of strength fails to break 60% on a pack of scrubs like he did in round 1 last year (seriously, that fourpack was probably the weakest for a Noble Niner), I can't help but wonder WTF is up with him.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:56:06 PM | message detail
Nonetheless FFVII's day vote did weaken noticeably, and before we got to bandwagoned Snake (and indeed, once Snake really had the bandwagon going, his day vote was relegated to joke-land, giving Crono his first ASV victory over someone in.....a very long time.) Trends do not equal strength, but losing day vote strength does make me wary. Or to put it another way, in each of the previous years, FFVII has always managed standout matches that awed us, matches that made us consider the dream of Cloud > Link. Vincent > Kerrigan, Tifa > Vyse, Vincent > Ganondorf, Samus > Tifa, Sephiroth confirming that he is in fact way above Mario, Cloud's 1st 3 rounds in 2007. FFVII had nothing like this last year.

I compared it to CT in 2005 because CT did not appear clearly weaker then either (at least not at the time). Mario could be explained by Nintendo boosting through the roof. Magus was just overrated; he didn't have to have actually lost strength. Frog finally ran into a character with whom he couldn't magically keep the match within 52-48. I think FFVII will be fine, but I am a little wary there.
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Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/26/2009 3:58:52 PM | message detail
Sounds to me like people are just looking for excuses. FF7's did fine last year and it isn't going anywhere. I hope no one tries to use this logic to explain some ridiculous upset where FF7 loses before the finals in the games contest.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 3:59:59 PM | message detail
anybody think Mario 3 could upset LTTP against FF7?

I do see these games relatively close to each other.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 4:03:48 PM | message detail
Of course not. If FFVII was weaker last year at all it was by a tiny amount. It is and ought to be the favorite to win this contest.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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plasmabeam | Posted 3/26/2009 5:07:31 PM | message detail
anybody think Mario 3 could upset LTTP against FF7?

I do see these games relatively close to each other.


With Zelda 1 playing vampire on LttP? Sure thing. Zelda 1 usually scores around 7% in the "Favorite Zelda polls, which should be enough to sink LttP.

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plasmabeam | Posted 3/26/2009 5:10:58 PM | message detail
And I should also note that SMB3 is the only game in that poll that isn't an Action-Adventure/RPG game. I think it'll stand out enough.

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charmander6000 | Posted 3/26/2009 5:27:16 PM | message detail
If LoZ makes it to that match SMB3 should be the favourite. Chrono Trigger didn't even break 53% on it in 2004. The only way I see SMB3 losing that match is if it gets SFF which I find hard to believe.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/26/2009 5:27:53 PM | message detail
So the majority think RE4 will beat TP, why?

The Game of the Century poll where RE4 beat TP due to a Nintendo split. Of course, there were several Nintendo games in the poll, including another Zelda, and RE4 still didn't beat TP by that much. Throw only one Nintendo game into the mix, and TP may beat RE4 pretty easily.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 5:46:04 PM | message detail
What if it's Mario 3/LTTP/Chrono Trigger/FF7?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/26/2009 5:46:13 PM | message detail
wait not chrono trigger, but FF2*
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Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Meeks54 | Posted 3/26/2009 7:23:26 PM | message detail
FF VII in no way had a bad year. Fact is if Snake did not cheat the last two days, it finishes with Cloud in second again. On top of that, Zack Fair took over GameFAQs, and Tifa advanced in a match that Sephiroth was in as well, and from what we saw in round 2, would have gone to round 3 had Jill not taken away some of her TJF. The only bad part, was Sephiroth getting taken by Kirby, but that was not at all legitimate either, just as the Sonic match. (as pointed out before, only one match of the entire quarterfinals on was in no way shady, every other one was either suspect or just blatant cheating, SB of course did not care). It may not have been god like impressive like Zelda was (except Ganondorf) but it was still easily the second strongest game last year, and Cloud manhandled Snake the round before the blatant stuff started.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton