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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 659

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/24/2009 5:14:33 PM | message detail
I'm not immune to logic, I'm just smarter than you.

What are you talking about? The comment you quoted was directed at BT.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 5:15:05 PM | message detail
Here it is: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3197

I have CT > Mario World 2 and I'm not changing it, but I won't be at all surprised if EarthBound pulls it off.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 5:15:49 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 3/24/2009 8:14:33 PM | #301
I'm not immune to logic, I'm just smarter than you.

What are you talking about? The comment you quoted was directed at BT.


I saw my post, then yours right after mine. Whoops =p
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/24/2009 5:17:16 PM | message detail
You know, trying to figure out any sort of percentages for these matches is absolute guesswork. Virtually no logic involved.

Exactly. The only thing you can guarentee in that match is Lufia being under 5%
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 5:18:37 PM | message detail
You know what? Screw it. CT > EarthBound. Let's have some fun.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/24/2009 5:18:44 PM | message detail
I REALLY wish people would stop posting what is a completely useless poll as an excuse to take crappy games to places they have no business going. I've already discredited that VC poll's usefulness for this contest.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Jabroni nick | Posted 3/24/2009 5:36:47 PM | message detail
I can't decide which I want to place as my top 2.

I have RE4>Tetris right now because they're about the only top contenders besides MGS4 to not not get SFF'd in the brackets. The way mine is set up. TP and OoT will SFF each other and lose and FF7 and FFX will SFF each other. And I figure if L-block can win a character contest on here, then surely Tetris, one of the most popular games ever can get far. And I think RE4 will get far also because it won't get SFF'd.

My other choice is OoT over FF7. the last few years of character contests will show that this is pretty likely.
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Expect less and you'll be more satisfied
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/24/2009 5:37:52 PM | message detail
OoT and FF7 are really the only games with any chances of winning.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/24/2009 5:38:38 PM | message detail
Link and Cloud are the only characters with any chances of winning.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/24/2009 5:40:12 PM | message detail
...And they are. Unless you want to start getting into predicting the next L-Block internet sensation? Yeah let's not do that.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/24/2009 5:40:20 PM | message detail
Games feel like a different story to me, but yeah, I can't rule anything out with this contest.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/24/2009 5:41:27 PM | message detail
Kirby and Snake last year showed that it doesn't take much for a bandwagon to get going.

OoT and FF7 are obviously the likely choices but who the hell knows in this format.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/24/2009 5:48:45 PM | message detail
Even without the SNES-VC poll, EB beat SMW2:YI by forty-five spots on the Top 100 List...that's a huge gap you won't find many games on the Top 100 List overcome.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/24/2009 5:56:42 PM | message detail
Well I've updated the BOP http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls

Some interesting matches

ROUND 1

2. Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!! – 19
2. Donkey Kong – 16

2. Ninja Gaiden – 18
2. Duck Hunt – 16

1. Street Fighter II – 27
1. Sonic the Hedgehog - 9

1. Super Metroid – 24
1. Sonic 3 – 9
1. Super Mario Kart - 3
2. Sonic 3 – 20
2. Super Metroid – 10
2. Super Mario Kart - 6

2. Mega Man X – 22
2. LoZ: Link’s Awakening - 14

2. Super Mario RPG – 21
2. Resident Evil 2 – 12

2. Mario Kart 64 – 25
2. Star Fox 64 - 11

1. LoZ: Majora’s Mask – 18
1. Pokemon R/B/Y – 17

1. Starcraft – 22
1. Final Fantasy VIII - 14

2. Half-Life – 24
2. Final Fantasy IX - 12

1. Halo – 22
1. Diablo II: LoD – 9
1. Grand Theft Auto III – 4
1. Star Wars: KotOR - 1
2. Diablo II: LoD – 16
2. Halo – 10
2. Grand Theft Auto III - 7
2. Star Wars: KotOR – 3

2. God of War – 18
2. Oblivion - 7
2. Tales of Symphonia – 6

2. World of Warcraft - 20
2. Halo 2 – 9

2. Half-Life 2 – 22
2. Final Fantasy XII – 12

2. Grand Theft Auto IV – 22
2. Street Fighter IV – 12

2. Portal – 24
2. Bioshock - 10

ROUND 2

1. Mega Man 2 – 21
1. Tetris - 15

1. The Legend of Zelda – 25
1. Super Mario Bros. - 11

2. Sonic 3 – 18
2. Doom – 8
2. Super Metroid - 7
2. Super Mario Kart – 3

2. Mega Man X – 14
2. LoZ: Link’s Awakening – 11
2. Sonic 2 – 8

2. LoZ: Majora’s Mask – 13
2. Final Fantasy Tactics – 12
2. Metal Gear Solid - 6
2. Pokemon R/B/Y – 4

1. Final Fantasy X – 18
1. Metroid Prime – 12
1. Metal Gear Solid 2 – 5
2. Final Fantasy X - 16
2. Metroid Prime - 9
2. Metal Gear Solid 2 – 6
2. GTA: Vice City – 4

2. Halo - 12
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 10
2. LoZ: The Wind Waker – 8

2. GTA: San Andreas – 10
2. Metal Gear Solid 3 - 8
2. World of Warcraft – 7
2. Halo 2 – 6
2. God of War - 4

1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 14
1. Super Mario Galaxy - 10
1. Call of Duty 4 – 10

ROUND 3

2. Final Fantasy II (IV) – 15
2. Super Mario World – 11

2. Metal Gear Solid – 22
2. Starcraft – 11

1. Final Fantasy X - 23
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 13

1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 15
1. Super Mario Galaxy – 10
1. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 9

ROUND 4

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 19
1. The Legend of Zelda – 10
1. Final Fantasy II (IV) – 4
2. Super Mario Bros. 3 – 11
2. The Legend of Zelda - 9
2. Final Fantasy II (IV) - 8

1. Final Fantasy VII – 26
1. LoZ: A Link to the Past - 10

2. Final Fantasy X – 19
2. Metal Gear Solid – 7
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee – 6

1. Resident Evil 4 – 12
1. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 10
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 7
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 11
2. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 10
2. Resident Evil 4 - 9

ROUND 5

2. LoZ: A Link to the Past - 23
2. Super Mario Bros. 3 – 8

2. Final Fantasy X – 13
2. Resident Evil 4 – 8

ROUND 6

1. Final Fantasy VII – 28
1. LoZ: Ocarina of Time - 8

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
greatone10 | Posted 3/24/2009 6:04:22 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 3/24/2009 5:48:45 PM | #313
Even without the SNES-VC poll, EB beat SMW2:YI by forty-five spots on the Top 100 List...that's a huge gap you won't find many games on the Top 100 List overcome.


That's the kind of thing Earthbound would excel at. No doubt it has some of the most loyal fans in all of gaming. The knock against them is that they don't have the numbers needed to win straight up contest matches. This is as opposed to what I would assume to be a much lower turnout than the usual contest polls. I would also wager Yoshi's Island was at a huge disadvantage competing against every Mario platformer in existence.

Besides, Earthbound itself spit in the face of that list when Ness beat Carl Johnson anyway.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
trannyscience | Posted 3/24/2009 6:09:55 PM | message detail
ROUND 4

1. Resident Evil 4 – 12
1. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 10
1. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 7
2. LoZ: Twilight Princess – 11
2. Metal Gear Solid 4 – 10
2. Resident Evil 4 - 9

ROUND 5

2. Final Fantasy X – 13
2. Resident Evil 4 – 8

no picks for MGS4?
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xyzzy
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RPGuy96 | Posted 3/24/2009 6:10:35 PM | message detail
I'm pretty confident there are picks for MGS1 there, too.
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Mustache...and Green...
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trannyscience | Posted 3/24/2009 6:11:13 PM | message detail
and Starcraft too, I expect there to be a number of those.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 6:16:24 PM | message detail
I know for a fact I have MGS4 there.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/24/2009 6:25:52 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #238
Come on, it's Secret of Mana here! O_o Does this topic really have no more important matches to discuss? Maybe some upsets that are...you know...possible? :)


I actually meant Sonic 3. >_>;;
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/24/2009 6:26:56 PM | message detail
2. God of War – 18
2. Oblivion - 7
2. Tales of Symphonia – 6


You disappoint me, Board 8!

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/24/2009 6:29:16 PM | message detail
Oh there is, it's just the number is small so I didn't include them, check the excel sheet.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/24/2009 6:35:29 PM | message detail
I don't understand the thing that Charmander posted. What do those numbers mean?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 6:59:55 PM | message detail
I'm doing my final lookthrough now, and only two matches really bug me.

Mario World v FF1 v FF4 v MM3

Mega Man 3 has virtually no shot here, but I'm not convinced FF1 v FF4 is a tossup. I'm positive FF1 and FF4 are close in strength, and the entire match comes down to whether or not FF4 hurts FF1 more than Mario World hurts FF4. SNES affiliation has caused weird poll results in the past, and I don't think it's impossible for Mario World to hurt FF4 enough for FF1 to advance. 40% on Mario 3 is no fluke regardless of where or when the poll is held, and FF4 would never do that. I have Mario World > FF4, if only because of the DS remake and these two polls....

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3350
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3361

FF4 resisted heavy SFF in two polls shared with Chrono Trigger. If it can avoid getting murdered by CT (which you think would just destroy it), I think it can also avoid getting weakened by Mario World.

And no, I don't think Mario 3 is going to maul Mario World to a level weaker than FF4 because of Mario 3 and Street Fighter 2 being in the same poll. This is on par with saying Mario 64 will advance past Chrono Trigger because of Final Fantasy 7 and Goldeneye being in the same poll.

Do you really think Final Fantasy 7 can SFF Chrono Trigger enough for Mario 64 to get second place in that poll? No, you don't. Two strong games being Mario titles won't suddenly make one of them not strong. Especially not to the level of being FF4-weak.



TP v RE4 v MGS4 v Galaxy

This is the one poll all contest where any two games can finish 1-2. The only thing to be sure of here is TP being stronger than Galaxy, because of this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2995

And that was with Wind Waker there. TP is likely much stronger. But... that's all we know. This one poll has 4 different outcomes: TP > Galaxy > RE4/MGS4, MGS4 > TP > Galaxy > RE4, RE4 > TP > Galaxy > MGS4 or even MGS4/RE4 > TP > MGS4/RE4 > Galaxy.

For a late-round match, unpredictability being this high is insane. And in fairness, my match assumes Brawl not making it here. Then there's the matter of what if any effect RE5 has on RE4's stock this contest. *If* MGS4 is equal to Brawl in strength like the recent GOTY poll indicates, then I'm positive it's stronger than pre-RE5 RE4. The issue comes with whether or not RE4 is about to get a boost. If you run a poll search on "Resident Evil 5", all the results are "What are you most looking forward to?" polls with MGS4 not too far ahead of RE5. Make the question "What is your favorite?" and replace RE5 with RE4, and there isn't much ground to make up. Plus MGS4 undoubtedly benefited from Brawl anti-votes in the GOTY poll. MGS4 literally had a massive increase in strength for three straight polls. That isn't MGS4's own strength, that's "Not Brawl" gaining strength.

And I hate going back to this yet again, but look: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2995

For argument's sake, remove Metroid Prime and Wind Waker. That's 12000 votes for TP and Galaxy to split. For argument's sake, we'll give RE4 2000 of them (it was on the Gamecube), and split the other 10k 60-40 in TP's favor. This very poll proves Galaxy is resistant to TP SFFing it to death, so 60-40 seems fair.

You get:

RE4 - 22000
TP - 25000
Galaxy - 21000

Between Final Fantasy X and San Andreas, you have 43000 votes to dole out. Do you really think those 43000 votes from those two fanbases wouldn't help RE4 overcome a piddly 3000 votes? After a potential RE5 boost? Regardless of Galaxy or Brawl being here, TP is screwed.

(cont.)
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
charmander6000 | Posted 3/24/2009 7:04:10 PM | message detail
I don't understand the thing that Charmander posted. What do those numbers mean?

Number of people that took the game first or second in the BOP. Basically who's the favourite in each match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/24/2009 7:07:49 PM | message detail
Which ultimately begs the question: Can MGS4 still get second place? TP and Galaxy are both there weakening each other. Let's start over and put MGS4 in San Andreas' place in the GOTC poll. It seems like a safe enough place.

Just like before, we'll remove Wind Waker and Metroid Prime, leaving us:

Final Fantasy X - 28000
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 16000
RE4 - 22000
TP - 25000
Galaxy - 21000

Only now, we're removing Final Fantasy X and doling out 28000 votes. If that splits 50-50 to RE4 and MGS4, MGS4 ends up with 30000 votes. Second place. If it's, say, 60-40 in RE4's favor (an ungodly liberal bias toward RE4), MGS4 ends up with 27000 votes. Second place. If it splits 55-45, MGS4 ends up with 28000 votes. Again, second place.

TP not only has Galaxy or Brawl leeching it, but how many of Final Fantasy X's fans do you really expect to side with TP/Galaxy/Brawl over MGS4 and RE4?

RE4 > MGS4 in this match, and I'm not looking back.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
greatone10 | Posted 3/24/2009 7:24:22 PM | message detail
That's why I am not to worried about whether it's Brawl or Galaxy that escapes round 2. Either way, the game that makes it is just going to split with TP anyway. Although TP slipping by would make for an interesting upset special in the semi-finals for MGS4/RE4/FFX, and would also be a proving ground for OoT should LttP make it to the finals as well.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/24/2009 8:38:14 PM | message detail
I don't see how "Mega Man 3 has no shot".

You have arguably the 2 weakest Final Fantasies in the bracket splitting eachother, it wouldn't take much to advance in that situation. Hell, I'd take.... oh, well, maybe nothing from that half-division, but I'd take a lot of games to advance in that situation.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/24/2009 9:09:20 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2196

... uh, i hope this goes down soon.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
transience | Posted 3/24/2009 9:15:23 PM | message detail
it's kind of 5am in Europe.
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xyzzy
what's up ryan AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/24/2009 9:17:24 PM | message detail
Yeah but.. a 10% drop is still kinda hard to do at 90%.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 3/24/2009 9:27:24 PM | message detail
This one poll has 4 different outcomes: TP > Galaxy > RE4/MGS4, MGS4 > TP > Galaxy > RE4, RE4 > TP > Galaxy > MGS4 or even MGS4/RE4 > TP > MGS4/RE4 > Galaxy.

TP > RE4 > SMG > MGS4.

Go from there.
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Feel my truth.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 3/24/2009 9:33:49 PM | message detail
Nevermind. We came to the same conclusion =/.

RE4 > MGS4 all day.
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Feel my truth.
creativename | Posted 3/25/2009 12:22:20 AM | message detail
I actually meant Sonic 3. >_>;;
Whoops - I meant Sonic 2! That's the game that's up against SoM.


You know, I hadn't realized the scenario that Link to the Past has against FF7 in round 4 - FF7/Chrono Trigger/FF6/LttP. That's a damn good scenario for a game that would probably break 40% against FF7 heads-up.

There could be some generational overlap between LttP and the other two SNES RPGs, but the Square overlap is likely greater, especially with VI. VI will probably crumble bad, but will it be bad enough?

And if FF7 gets 2nd there, that could well be the ideal scenario for an ALttP bandwagon to build up. Only problem for it is that it can't beat OoT, bandwagon or no. But with a bandwagon, it could conceivably take 1st place over FF7 for two consecutive rounds.

I'm hoping this doesn't happen, but I'm a bit concerned for FF7 there. That's a real bad 4-pack for it.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
creativename | Posted 3/25/2009 12:23:35 AM | message detail
I don't get why people would think FF4 was weaker than FF1. I doubt it is.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/25/2009 12:48:47 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #331
Yeah but.. a 10% drop is still kinda hard to do at 90%.


Its already gone down 10% by 3:45
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/25/2009 1:13:13 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/25/2009 3:43:17 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #336
Its already gone down 10% by 3:45


oh yeah well watch this.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/25/2009 4:43:55 AM | message detail
And if FF7 gets 2nd there, that could well be the ideal scenario for an ALttP bandwagon to build up. Only problem for it is that it can't beat OoT, bandwagon or no. But with a bandwagon, it could conceivably take 1st place over FF7 for two consecutive rounds.

It has no hope of beating FFVII in the semifinals with SMB3 and Zelda 1 in the poll, whether or not it gets a bandwagon.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
MeteorMercenary | Posted 3/25/2009 4:44:36 AM | message detail
Wait. So let me get this straight:

SMB3 > SMW > FF4 > SFII?

Honestly?
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Meteor Mercenary, the legend of legends.
red sox 777 | Posted 3/25/2009 4:48:44 AM | message detail
Wait, sorry, I suppose you meant if FFIV was there instead of Zelda 1. That's still not a winnable match for LTTP though, because SMB3 will still be there, and LTTP is not a joke entrant- Snake's bandwagon wasn't that huge.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/25/2009 4:50:51 AM | message detail
to be perfectly honest, though SMB3 wouldn't really SFF SMW, that doesn't mean they wouldn't signficantly split either.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/25/2009 4:56:14 AM | message detail
\North America is going to have some morning/ASV vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/25/2009 6:50:48 AM | message detail
Resident Evil is still giving me the creeps..
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/25/2009 7:24:37 AM | message detail
Both RE and RE2 have a chance at upsetting SotN/SMRPG, though I see RE2 having a better chance against SMRPG.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/25/2009 8:49:11 AM | message detail
In regards to FF7/LTTP/CT/FF6, CT and FF6 are more likely to hurt LTTP than they are FF7. SNES overlap is whacky, and we've already seen CT, FF6 and FF7 not really affect each other in polls in the past. I highly doubt LTTP is going to make up a 60-40 gap there.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/25/2009 8:50:36 AM | message detail

From: MeteorMercenary | Posted: 3/25/2009 7:44:36 AM | #335
Wait. So let me get this straight:

SMB3 > SMW > FF4 > SFII?

Honestly?


Yep. FF4 and Street Fighter 2 are NOT strong games. Super Mario World has to suffer the ass end of some legendary SFF for FF4 to come in second place there, and FF4 has to get around SNES overlap with Mario World. I don't see it.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
1v1s | Posted 3/25/2009 8:55:38 AM | message detail
I have both RE's going through, but I think I feel more confident about RE2.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/25/2009 9:04:37 AM | message detail
I really need to play RE2 one of these days. Was it ever remade or anything?
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/25/2009 9:07:28 AM | message detail
More like SMB3 > MM3
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1