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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 659

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 10:52:17 AM | message detail
You won't close your account anyway (if snake gets over 43%...), so whats the point?
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MeteorMercenary | Posted 3/23/2009 10:53:49 AM | message detail
So, what does everyone's final four look like?
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Meteor Mercenary, the legend of legends.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 11:04:44 AM | message detail
Why would I have made a second account bet when the first one hadn't happened yet? That was a sarcastic comment that wasn't intended to be serious. If the original bet had gone through and Mega Man lost without Zero there, I would have closed my account and you have no reason to believe otherwise.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 11:05:02 AM | message detail
FF7 > OoT > WoW > SMB3
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 11:14:55 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure I've suggested SMG/SSBB being a good match since SSBB's Wii-GotY, called it a good match since SSBB (finally) won the overall-GotY, and decided to pull the trigger on it before I heard Ulti's "nerdrage" take SMG > SSBB (and before the bracket was finalized). No need to jump to conclusions, BT.

I'll just say this: it should be fun to watch both of the SSB games in action this year as far as SFF goes, because we've never seen SSB in many SFF-situations and I think each of them are going to handle it quite differently. If SSBM doesn't beat LoZ:WW with ease in R1/R2, SSBB could be in some bad **** against SMG in R2 (and R3?). Essentially all of us are convinced SSBM > SSBB and understand SSBB's not a Super Seven-breaker (yeah, I still remember that term!), and SMG will at least hang with LoZ:WW nowadays if not beat it (I'd take SMG > LoZ:WW, at least).

SSBM will need to beat LoZ:WW in style (twice) for me to think SSBB has a good chance to beat SMG.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 11:25:53 AM | message detail
Why would I have made a second account bet when the first one hadn't happened yet? That was a sarcastic comment that wasn't intended to be serious. If the original bet had gone through and Mega Man lost without Zero there, I would have closed my account and you have no reason to believe otherwise.

1) "43%-45%." You get the benefit of the doubt for joking, but you still said it and will catch appropriate hell for it.
2) You just made an account-bet on the same match we've got a sig-bet on. Again, benefit of the doubt since they're different bets, but you're showing no problem making an account bet when your first bet hasn't happened first.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
The Mana Sword | Posted 3/23/2009 11:37:54 AM | message detail
what did I say about this stuff
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 11:43:24 AM | message detail
sorry im meen sometimes


By the way, my Final Four is FF7 > LoZ:OoT (> RE4 > SMB3).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 12:04:58 PM | message detail
There are plenty of reasons to take SMG over MGS4 one on one. One of them being ownership.

Quite frankly, I will never place MGS4 a good bit over MGS2.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2009 12:23:29 PM | message detail
People need to stop pushing BT with "Snake with 43%." It was clearly a joke, which several stat users have done since 2002 and just as many who haven't held up their deal because they made a bet with no one/was trying to get a point across which ended up backfiring.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 12:25:17 PM | message detail
Does anybody have specific logs of it to confirm this?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 12:40:47 PM | message detail
Charmander's right, but he's frankly never done anything that made me want to give him a break. I'll leave him alone about it when he concedes that Solid would have beaten Mega Man if Zero wasn't there (which was our original bet and what he was referencing when he made that joke). He hasn't yet to my knowledge.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2009 12:46:37 PM | message detail
Well Snake was about 500 votes away from beating Mega Man and Zero together.

Unless, it's possible that MM would receive more joke votes. >_>
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Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
creativename | Posted 3/23/2009 1:03:39 PM | message detail
I have Brawl above Galaxy and I doubt I'd consider changing it. I wouldn't be too surprised if Galaxy won, I don't have much confidence in Brawl. But I don't see how anyone could have much confidence in Galaxy being stronger than Brawl either.

MGS4 vs. RE4 vs. LoZ:TP is in a later round and could go in any order, so it's the more important match anyway.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 1:05:46 PM | message detail
all the polls show Galaxy is stronger then brawl. thats where my confidence comes from

Galaxy more then doubled halo 3 when it was BIG, and brawl was actually losing to fallout 3 at night
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 1:09:46 PM | message detail
FO3 > Halo 3 and CoD4/Halo 3 were probably hurting each other against SMG. I dunno how fair that is to judge by.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 1:10:19 PM | message detail
I just can't see Galaxy doing what Brawl did in those polls after seeing that century poll after seeing how Fallout 3 handled it.

Though if Call of Duty 4 and Fallout 3 are close matches (which they most likely are), Galaxy has the advantage.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 1:22:29 PM | message detail
Funny thing about Fallout 3 though...

You'd expect it to be one of those games to do well during the day due to it being a big 360 title, but its actually a night monster and only does average during the day
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2009 1:24:17 PM | message detail
If Galaxy > Brawl then Halo 3 > Fallout 3 shouldn't be a far-fetched idea.
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Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 1:25:32 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #119
If Galaxy > Brawl then Halo 3 > Fallout 3 shouldn't be a far-fetched idea.


Thats possible at the time of the Galaxy poll. Remember, Halo 3 was HUGE then. Its dropped off by now, but at that point it was very possible
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2009 1:31:46 PM | message detail
Galaxy has probably dropped off by as much as Halo 3 since 2k7.
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Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 1:41:51 PM | message detail
I really doubt a well-received Mario game would drop fast. If you honestly expect it to drop like that, why not TP?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 1:44:18 PM | message detail
Halo 3 would do well enough, but it wouldn't be close or anything. I'd call CoD4/FO3 a much better match than Halo 3/FO3. FO3 was expected to get 45.83% on SSBB. Taking Halo 3 to get that on SMG probably means CoD4 legitimately beats SMG...and it doesn't even look like most people are taking CoD4 to advance over SMG with SSBB in R2 according to the BOP (and SMG > CoD4 is almost unanimous in R1 despite Pokemon D/P).

You can take SMG > SSBB and not have to consider Halo 3/FO3 a great match.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/23/2009 1:48:32 PM | message detail
How much do you think Halo 3 has dropped since the GotY poll? Are we talking GTAIV drop?

It was released 4 months before the polls began compare to SMG's 2 months. Halo has pretty good staying power with Xbox fans supporting it. Also who's to say that Fallout 3 hasn't drop since the GotY poll? If you think SMG would beat SSBB by more than 55/45 before SFF then Fallout 3/Halo 3 should be in question.
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Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 1:51:08 PM | message detail
How much do you think Halo 3 has dropped since the GotY poll? Are we talking GTAIV drop?

I'm talking about the drop in Chiefs strength from 2007 to 2008 as my reason to believe Halo 3 has dropped far from its 2007 levels.
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transience | Posted 3/23/2009 1:54:35 PM | message detail
Halo 3 dropped the week after it came out. that was pretty obvious from its 2007 GOTY performance.
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xyzzy
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The_Doom_Dealer | Posted 3/23/2009 1:55:13 PM | message detail
What about SF4 vs. GTA4?

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Put your cards where your mouth is.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 1:56:00 PM | message detail
GTA4 easily.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/23/2009 2:04:08 PM | message detail
If Halo 3 was still huge in January '08, CoD4 and SMG are beasts.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2994


I think SMG/SSBB are indirectly pretty even; I think SFF is what's going to be the difference-maker for SMG.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 2:06:55 PM | message detail
Halo 3 still topped XBL charts at that point, so I'd ay it was still big. Call of Duty 4 didnt really take over the charts til march
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 2:56:57 PM | message detail
Essentially all of us are convinced SSBM > SSBB and understand SSBB's not a Super Seven-breaker (yeah, I still remember that term!), and SMG will at least hang with LoZ:WW nowadays if not beat it (I'd take SMG > LoZ:WW, at least).

I'm not convinced. Unless you're saying Melee 2004 > Brawl 2008, in which case absolutely, in part due to the Wii Backlash Factor (tm)

2) You just made an account-bet on the same match we've got a sig-bet on. Again, benefit of the doubt since they're different bets, but you're showing no problem making an account bet when your first bet hasn't happened first.

I forgot which match we bet on and you can still honour a sig-bet after an account bet.

all the polls show Galaxy is stronger then brawl. thats where my confidence comes from

Galaxy more then doubled halo 3 when it was BIG, and brawl was actually losing to fallout 3 at night


When "all of the polls" are 2 polls, one featuring SMG weeks after it came out and at the peak of Nintendo popularity and the other featuring Brawl 9 months after it came out against 2 very recent, well-recieved games at the peak of Wii Backlash (tm), I fail to see your point. We saw Nintendo characters take a nosedive last year (Mega Man X putting the fear into Mario) across the board, and the Wii's lack of non-granny games has only made things worse for the house of Mario.

Every year there's a painfully obvious match that irrelevant polls and stats topic bandwagoning obscures, and this is it. SMG > Brawl makes as much sense as Samus > Mario, or Mario Kart > Mega Man.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 2:59:57 PM | message detail
To clarify that first point, Brawl is not going to be a threat in later parts of the bracket and will only go so far because of the lack of strong games in that division, and the fact that the division finals are CoD4/MGS4/Fallout 3/Brawl. It makes no sense for Galaxy, a typical 3-D Mario game that got good reviews but fell off the face of the earth, to beat basically the only non Mario Kart Wii multiplayer Wii game (I mean game in the traditional sense of something that isn't a shovelware mini-game compilation)
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 3:16:15 PM | message detail
I don't understand why you consider it a typical 3-D mario game. the last well-received Mario game was Mario 64 and you surely wouldn't put Brawl close to that.

Mario Galaxy is no sunshine dammit. Quit making it out to be one.

And I would figure Brawl fell off the face of the Earth faster than Galaxy could. I mean, who struggle with a game with ony 30% ownership and have over 70% of the site PLAY IT?

Some Brawl loyalty..
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 3:17:09 PM | message detail
the last well-received Mario game was Mario 64

http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/cube/supermariosunshine?q=mario%20sunshine
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 3:20:32 PM | message detail
Well-received as in, actually loved by everybody.

Sunshine gets a lot of backlash.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 3:22:57 PM | message detail
My point exactly. Sunshine was for all intents and purposes a good game. It's just that people on this board were aboard the Sony Bandwagon when it came out so they view it as an abomination.

Board 8 is so fickle in who it supports. 2 years ago it was blasphemy to support a game like Fallout or Bioshock or say someting negative about a Nintendo franchise. Now you are a moron with no taste if you don't own all of the latest h4rdc0r3 games on the 360/PS3. Board 8 has always had trouble judging things on their merits as opposed to what is niche/popular.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 3:23:48 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #135
Well-received as in, actually loved by everybody.

Sunshine gets a lot of backlash.


Mario Sunshine is a great game. It doesn't matter if it wasn't as good as Super Mario 64 in most peoples eyes (To me it was better but thats just due to the improvements of the genre in general over 6 years), but its still an excellent game.
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creativename | Posted 3/23/2009 3:30:09 PM | message detail
Oh god, let's not try to say that Sunshine of all games was well received...
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/23/2009 3:31:34 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #138
Oh god, let's not try to say that Sunshine of all games was well received...


Its relative. It might not be as well received as you'd expect for a Mario title, but to say it wasn't well received is silly.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 3:31:39 PM | message detail
Sunshine was well recieved by people not comparing to Mario 64, just like Galaxy was seen as average by people not comparing it to Sunshine.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
SonicRaptor | Posted 3/23/2009 3:32:36 PM | message detail
Sunshine didn't even get enough nominations to make the freaking bracket, for God's sake.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
SonicRaptor | Posted 3/23/2009 3:33:54 PM | message detail
Even Majora's Mask and FF12, the black sheep of their respective series got enough people interested to get them into the bracket.

Sunshine has hate holding it down.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/23/2009 3:35:22 PM | message detail
Turtle your biggest mistake is using Board 8 to gauge a game's popularity.

Persona 4 should have been.. oh wait.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 3/23/2009 3:36:48 PM | message detail
Sunshine was well recieved by people not comparing to Mario 64, just like Galaxy was seen as average by people not comparing it to Sunshine.

What the hell are you talking about

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ZFS | Posted 3/23/2009 3:39:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/wii/home/915692.html
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/n64/home/198848.html
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/gamecube/home/533287.html
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/nes/home/525244.html

I mean really

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SonicRaptor | Posted 3/23/2009 3:40:03 PM | message detail
Wasn't there a press release around the time of Galaxy's release by some high-up in Nintendo (want to say Iwata, but I could be wrong) saying Galaxy was the "successor" to Mario 64?

Sunshine really was abandoned when that statement was made.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MegatokyoEd | Posted 3/23/2009 3:41:28 PM | message detail
Turtle, stop pulling stuff from your ass. Galaxy was received average by people who didn't compare it to Sunshine? What a load of BS. I saw way more people calling TP average than Galaxy.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
SonicRaptor | Posted 3/23/2009 3:43:12 PM | message detail
Ah, TP, there's another game that got excellent to raving reviews only to have the Zelda fanbase go "meh" after they beat it. Though the problem there was it was a very safe and formulatic Zelda game that really didn't try a lot of new things (the overworld in particular was criticized for being bland and lacking fun exploration the series was known for).

The dungeon designs though kicked some serious ass: Snowpeak Ruins is one of the best in the series.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/23/2009 3:48:50 PM | message detail
8.8!

TP is another overrated game that will go deep because of a lack of competition.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/23/2009 3:52:00 PM | message detail
Oh, Turtle

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.