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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 659

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 7:57:25 PM | message detail
Zack fair was given the easiest path out of any character in the contest. Any non-Nintendo midcarder would have advanced as far as he did. Off the top of my head, Ken. Ditto for Tifa. Unless Sephy beat her into the ground, there was no way she wasn't going as far as she did.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/26/2009 8:02:49 PM | message detail
Zack only got as far as he did because he was in a division where everyone not named Link was weaksauce. Put him in any other division, and he likely gets eliminated before getting to the quarterfinals.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 8:06:25 PM | message detail
Zack Fair = Our most entertaining newcomer since Frog. And yes, he has real strength. He's not a Noble Nine Breaker, but he has real strength.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 8:31:37 PM | message detail
But using an untested character beating on a division full of turbofodder as "evidence" that Final Fantasy was fine is silly.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/26/2009 8:34:58 PM | message detail
He's not a Noble Nine Breaker, but he has real strength.

Again, that was a weak-ass division. I would pick Ken to get out of that division. I would pick BARTZ to escape that division, and he's never even been in a contest!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
HaRRicH | Posted 3/26/2009 8:35:22 PM | message detail
From the numbers we got on Zack, there's not much reason to doubt he's on Aeris's level, give or take. Maybe he's just shy of it or maybe she'd destroy him head-to-head, but he showed he wasn't anything worth dissing.

1) He beat Wario post-SSBB badly despite Cecil.
2) He doubled Zidane after his upset over Shadow (who many of us had winning the division).
3) He smoked Duke and Altair (and would have beaten Marth hard too if Lucario didn't mess him up in R2).
4) He nearly upset Mario (with killer circumstances on his side, to be fair).
5) He got 30.94% against Link in R2 with Wario despite Zidane.
6) He got 30.01% against Link in R3 as the only Nintendo/Square characters in the match.
7) He got 34.08% against Link in R4 with Mario (and MMX).

He's got his own game and was in the biggest game on GameFAQs, so it's not like this is impossible. Zack's legit. Just because a LOT of other characters could have escaped that division with Link doesn't mean Zack should be discredited for his position. That was just a weak division he was forced in, and he left it in style. That shouldn't be ignored.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/26/2009 8:36:27 PM | message detail
Zacks strength is a mid card strength... nothing more

From the numbers we got on Zack, there's not much reason to doubt he's on Aeris's level, give or take. Maybe he's just shy of it or maybe she'd destroy him head-to-head, but he showed he wasn't anything worth dissing.

Oh, she would destroy him. I doubt theres many FF7 fans who would take Zack over her.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 8:39:44 PM | message detail
I'm not ignoring him. I had him out of that division with Link and wasn't surprised in the least with how he performed. I'm just saying it's ludicrous to base your argument of FF7 not taking a dive on an unknown character beating the crap out of jobbers like Zidane and Duke Nukem.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 8:43:20 PM | message detail
Zack > Sonic 1v1 upset train let's do this.

(This will be a reality after the FFVII remake and the umpteenth horrible new Sonic game!)
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/26/2009 8:47:03 PM | message detail
Division 1 ws a bunch of weaklings, Link, and Zack. I can't very well base an assumption that FF7 isn't losing steam on Zack's performance, now can I? And there's still Cloud's lackluster round 1 performance to consider.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/26/2009 8:51:01 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #460
Division 1 ws a bunch of weaklings, Link, and Zack. I can't very well base an assumption that FF7 isn't losing steam on Zack's performance, now can I? And there's still Cloud's lackluster round 1 performance to consider.


And the fact Cloud lost to Snake, even if he had sff or momentum against him
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creativename | Posted 3/26/2009 8:51:40 PM | message detail
Are there any old polls of the day and such that would give insight into MGS4 vs. RE4?
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Yesmar | Posted 3/26/2009 8:55:09 PM | message detail
Zack's division was incredibly weak and many many characters could have advanced in the same position.

That being said, Zack is pretty damn strong. It boggles my mind how and I can not comprehend why someone who besides a PSP game has barely over 5 minutes of screen time total is as popular as he is, but the numbers he put up against Link were really impressive. Considering how many times he put them up, I have no choice but to accept his weirdly high level of popularity.
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Yesmar | Posted 3/26/2009 8:57:22 PM | message detail
I mean, I would classify Zack as a midcarder, albeit at the highest possible level a midcarder can go.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/26/2009 8:59:23 PM | message detail
Zack is pretty important to the story of FFVII, even if he doesn't get much screentime. And a lot of people on this site have played through FFVII multiple times. FFVII fans are not stupid- probably most of them want to hear the story and know who Zack is after playing through the game once, much less several times.
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MeteorMercenary | Posted 3/26/2009 8:59:29 PM | message detail
Correct.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/26/2009 8:59:54 PM | message detail
You know I'd like to know where the 3.5% of the people who said they live in North America yesterday, but not in Canada, US or Mexico live.
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Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/26/2009 9:02:54 PM | message detail

From: creativename | Posted: 3/26/2009 9:51:40 PM | #462
Are there any old polls of the day and such that would give insight into MGS4 vs. RE4?


I covered this earlier as best as I could.
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Yesmar | Posted 3/26/2009 9:07:50 PM | message detail
Zack is pretty important to the story of FFVII, even if he doesn't get much screentime. And a lot of people on this site have played through FFVII multiple times. FFVII fans are not stupid- probably most of them want to hear the story and know who Zack is after playing through the game once, much less several times.

I wouldn't say Zack's that important to the story. Besides Cloud/Sephiroth, I would say that Aeris, Tifa, Rufus, Hojo, Jenova and probably Barrett are all more relevant to the story than he is. Hell, Professor Gast is probably more relevant than he is. Any fan of FFVII would know who he is, but they would know who Marlene is too, and they probably have more reason to care about her. Zack's popularity (pre-Crisis Core) comes from looking a lot like Cloud. Without this, he's just fodder, most likely.
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ZFS | Posted 3/26/2009 9:25:21 PM | message detail
The bulk of Zack's popularity (aside from being associated with FFVII) definitely comes from Crisis Core. Without it, he doesn't get in the contest, and probably doesn't do anywhere close to what he did in the past contest. Looking like Cloud is a nice joke, but that'd be a minor part of his strength, if anything.You might as well just say 'he looks cool.'

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/26/2009 10:54:49 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #467
You know I'd like to know where the 3.5% of the people who said they live in North America yesterday, but not in Canada, US or Mexico live.


Greenland?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 12:19:20 PM | message detail
The more I think about it, the more I realize Mario 64 > Resident Evil is a good pick. In the last contest, RE was behind SFF twice. MGS undoubtedly SFFd it, and MGS was in turn SFFd by FF7. SOTN is also behind that ridiculous OOT > Goldeneye split, but for some reason I think RE franchise voting is going to be huge this contest. There's nothing potentially leeching RE in that match.

The only other question I have is whether or not RE2 can get through that DKC2/SMRPG/Goldeneye mess. Goldeneye will obviously win, but Jill Valentine has to be getting all this random strength from somewhere.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/27/2009 12:25:36 PM | message detail
Hmm. Why did Cloud have such a lackluster performance last year in round 1??? That was beyond a doubt a weak fourpack he was in - and yet, he failed to break 60%.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 12:31:18 PM | message detail
I'm positive Mario RPG is strong than RE2 indirectly, but who knows what if any effect DKC2 will have on Mario RPG. That's pretty much what I'm torn on =/
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 12:31:39 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 3/27/2009 3:25:36 PM | #467
Hmm. Why did Cloud have such a lackluster performance last year in round 1??? That was beyond a doubt a weak fourpack he was in - and yet, he failed to break 60%.


Anti-voters always jam up Cloud's results.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/27/2009 12:32:39 PM | message detail
Sounds good enough to me.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 3/27/2009 12:36:13 PM | message detail
I can't see RE2 not making it out of that 4-pack. There's too much Nintendo jamming up the pipes for it not to be able to squeeze through.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/27/2009 12:46:46 PM | message detail
RE2 has a better chance of placing than RE IMO.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/27/2009 12:49:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, I've mentioned the possibility of RE > SOTN, but we have no clear read on Goldeneye or Perfect Dark.

I guess the best guess for Goldeneye would maybe be.. not any stronger than Mario World? But even that's not guaranteed, but I do see it and Mario 64 being real close to each other, so I say why not?

In that case, 2004 SOTN would have likely beaten RE2 even post RE4 if it had its old strength, but I'm not sure how that'd match would play today.

I guess it depends on how you look at SOTN/RE2.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/27/2009 1:02:29 PM | message detail
Uhh... it's SMRPG/RE2 and SOTN/RE
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/27/2009 1:06:08 PM | message detail
No, I mean, if you think RE2/Castlevania would be close at all, you should probably go with SOTN.
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*is Dranze*
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 1:12:14 PM | message detail
I don't get why people are discounting RE2. Its the best selling RE game.... it might not be as strong as RE4, but it shouldn't be considered to struggle with effing Castlevania.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/27/2009 1:24:59 PM | message detail
Why not? I'd have trouble taking it to cleanly beat something like Perfect Dark.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 1:26:29 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #483
Why not? I'd have trouble taking it to cleanly beat something like Perfect Dark.


Well you're understimating it then. I have it advancing over goldeneye in round 2 personally.

But then again maybe I'm just overestimating RE serie sin general, since I have RE4 making the finals.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 3/27/2009 1:27:44 PM | message detail
Post RE4 Resident Evil and Castlevania were pretty close statistically in the series contest. SotN is probably the game that defined Castlevania for most gamers here and certainly defined the direction the series would take. It's like Castlevania's equivalent of RE4.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 1:29:33 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 1:30:23 PM | message detail
RE Boost that we saw last year. Plus RE5 being really recent should help RE games in general. Those are my reasons for RE games doing so well.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/27/2009 1:33:11 PM | message detail
RE2's going to be fun to watch this contest. I have GE > RE2, though I think SMRPG is legitimately stronger. Between DKC2 with the SNES-support, GE being such a huge exclusive hit for Nintendo by then-Nintendo-Lite (Rare), and RE2 standing out the most in that match though...RE2's got a good shot. RE2 depends on a few things though:

1) How much did MGS hurt RE in 2004?
2) How much did FF7 hurt MGS in 2004?
3) How much stronger is RE2 than RE?
4) How much did RE4 rejuvenated the series?
5) How much will RE5's recent release help the series?

If you give RE2 the benefit of the doubt in most of those, it's got a good shot since SMRPG shouldn't be at 100% and RE2 will stand out.
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Prototype
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Mr3790 | Posted 3/27/2009 1:35:24 PM | message detail
In my opinion: RE2 is going to bomb...

Also, IB4500.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/27/2009 2:47:21 PM | message detail
If RE2 bombs, it's definitely it's own fault at this point. A lot of x-factors are on its side.
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Prototype
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 5:11:38 PM | message detail
The ONLY reason I have Mario RPG: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2644

It can stand up to whatever Nintendo SFF Goldeneye gives it. DKC2 is a non-factor, personally. I won't trust DK to SFF anything until I see it. I think Mario RPG is stronger, but I won't be surprised if RE2 gets second place.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 6:09:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think RE1/2 have favorable spots. **** it, taking them both to score second place in R1.
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plasmabeam | Posted 3/27/2009 6:58:35 PM | message detail
I foresee RE2 getting overlooked cuz of Goldeneye. While RE2 obviously isn't a pure shooter, I expect some SSF going against it. You're grasping for an upset if you believe in RE2.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 7:01:16 PM | message detail

From: plasmabeam | #493
I foresee RE2 getting overlooked cuz of Goldeneye. While RE2 obviously isn't a pure shooter, I expect some SSF going against it. You're grasping for an upset if you believe in RE2.


...You're trying to say SFF between a top PS1 title and a top n64 title simply due to them both having guns? Are you serious?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/27/2009 7:11:27 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure whatever split RE2/Goldeneye will have will be far less major than the other games.


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/27/2009 7:19:52 PM | message detail
And I really hope Plasma means an upset as RE2 beating Goldeneye, cuz it really isn't an upset if it beats Super Mario RPG... I'd say RE2 is favored.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/27/2009 7:27:50 PM | message detail

From: plasmabeam | Posted: 3/27/2009 9:58:35 PM | #483
I foresee RE2 getting overlooked cuz of Goldeneye. While RE2 obviously isn't a pure shooter, I expect some SSF going against it. You're grasping for an upset if you believe in RE2.


RE2/Goldeneye will split about as much as DKC2/SMRPG, but I think RE2 is naturally stronger than SMRPG is anyway.
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Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/27/2009 7:28:38 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 3/27/2009 8:01:16 PM | #494
...You're trying to say SFF between a top PS1 title and a top n64 title simply due to them both having guns? Are you serious?


My thoughts exactly.
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Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/27/2009 7:28:54 PM | message detail
Good night, Michigan State.
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UItimaterializer | Posted 3/27/2009 7:29:12 PM | message detail
Play EarthBound
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