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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 658

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/17/2009 8:04:22 PM | message detail
I'd say bringing wireless trading and battling is pretty good.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/17/2009 8:08:33 PM | message detail
I think he meant anything significant. Not that its much different then any of Nintendos games with improvements from game to game
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/17/2009 8:22:57 PM | message detail
All they need to do now is give Flareon Flare Blitz.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/17/2009 8:24:13 PM | message detail
D/P made a fairly significant change to the battle system, actually. A long overdue one, too.

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RPGGamer0 | Posted 3/17/2009 11:19:49 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #204
D/P made a fairly significant change to the battle system, actually. A long overdue one, too.


What was that?

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Congrats to FastFalcon05 for winning the Guru contest.
BesaidGuy | Posted 3/18/2009 4:23:02 AM | message detail
How many final 8s looks like so

SMB3
Mega Man 2

FF7
Lttp

Zelda OOT
FFX

RE4
Zelda TP

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Trans is clearly a Mario fanboy-MichaelWClark
BesaidGuy | Posted 3/18/2009 4:31:36 AM | message detail
my hardest late round match up is

smb3
smb1
mega man 2
ff1

this board fractures my decision making skills. i know we all love mega man 2 and I know how much a few of us love ff1. i'm not how the rest of the world feels.

both marios can't possibly make it and smb3 is the clear favorite.

argh
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2009 4:38:20 AM | message detail
Phantom Hourglass still beats D/P, no matter when you hold the poll. Just because it's not in the contest doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/18/2009 4:40:58 AM | message detail
Man...I'm sure this was discussed before, but...

Duck Hunt
Galaga
Ninja Gaiden
Super Mario Bros.

We all know SMB has first locked up, but which game is the favorite for second out of the other three? I find it rather hard to trust any one of Duck Hunt, Galaga, and Ninja Gaiden to get second here (SMB being in the poll is bad for Duck Hunt, Galaga nearly got quadrupled by Tetris, and Ninja Gaiden stunk it up in every single poll it's been in), but on the other hand, when low percentages are involved, pretty much anything can happen...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2009 4:44:39 AM | message detail
I'm siding with Duck Hunt. It's the other most well-known game in the poll, and I doubt either of the others go 50/50 with Donkey Kong.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 4:46:21 AM | message detail
I'm still scratching my head over Sonic 3 expectations.
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*is Dranze*
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greatone10 | Posted 3/18/2009 5:10:49 AM | message detail
I'm siding with Ninja Gaiden for one reason. There is same series SFF, console SFF, there is genre SFF, there is even same generation SFF, but SMB vs. Duck Hunt introduces us to what may be the most lethal SFF possible, same cartridge SFF. I just don't see Duck Hunt doing anything when the game it is forever attached to is stuck in the same poll.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/18/2009 5:13:50 AM | message detail
We'll see if that's truly a disadvantage for Duck Hunt or not! I'm not entirely convinced that it is, at least for this match!
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greatone10 | Posted 3/18/2009 5:19:58 AM | message detail
Also, the Ninja Gaiden series has been active in the past 20 years. Surprisingly enough, Nintendo has yet to remake or re-release Duck Hunt in any shape or form, despite having both the perfect console and avenue to do so (that being the Wii and the Virtual Console).
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/18/2009 5:23:21 AM | message detail
You're asking Nintendo to make sense?
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greatone10 | Posted 3/18/2009 5:25:32 AM | message detail
No, not at all. I'm just supporting my SMB > Ninja Gaiden prediction. Believe me, I would love to play Duck Hunt on the Wii.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 5:35:37 AM | message detail
If this were SMB3 in the match, it would be a lot harder for Duck Hunt simply because.. well, it's loved more.

However this is just the first Super Mario Bros. Is it somehow humanly impossible Duck Hunt is actually preferred over a Mario game more than a NES game probably guaranteed to do more terrible than the 3D games today?

I really doubt SMB is preferred over Duck Hunt anymore than 90%.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
swirIdude | Posted 3/18/2009 8:33:46 AM | message detail
http://kotaku.com/5173387/world-of-warcraft-the-soft-drink

GAME FUEL IS BACK!

World of Warcraft to the finals! Believe it!

*chugs*
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 3/18/2009 8:34:37 AM | message detail
My god what.....
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/18/2009 8:38:01 AM | message detail
Oh God this is going to be stronger than Tuesdays.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 8:55:13 AM | message detail
.. So what do we do now?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/18/2009 9:09:16 AM | message detail
We change all of our finals to WoW > OoT because FFVII loves to job to unexpected results.
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swirIdude | Posted 3/18/2009 9:50:52 AM | message detail
Hardcore fanbase prevail in these formats

Yeah, this is what was argued BEFORE we saw 4-way matches, where we suddenly realized that a hardcore fanbase is not enough to save you if you have no strength to begin with!
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/18/2009 10:01:40 AM | message detail
Hardcore != cult.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/18/2009 10:13:38 AM | message detail
Chuggin' the game fuel
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/18/2009 10:16:14 AM | message detail
Feeling good about WoW coming third in the finals
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swirIdude | Posted 3/18/2009 11:32:11 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/18/2009 12:09:16 PM | #222
We change all of our finals to WoW > OoT because FFVII loves to job to unexpected results.


Animal Crossing > FFVII
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 11:50:57 AM | message detail
If only WoW was facing Halo 3 instead! Damn you eras!


So, I feel bad for being the one to ask first, but...is everybody assuming Yoshi's Island is going to beat Earthbound pretty easily? There's a lot of room to argue otherwise (and no, I don't like Earthbound very much):

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3197

Comparison to CT aside, look at how badly EB beat SMK. It also nearly doubled MMX in a situation MMX should have thrived in; there were five Square games, two Nintendo games, six RPGs, and no other platformers. The only shady thing left about this poll is the type of poll it is, which will leave this poll in question for a long time...but I really don't think SMW2:YI would have even beaten SMK there (SMW2:YI isn't on the VC, right?). How that translates into contest strength, well, we'll see.

Top 100 List:
#37 - Earthbound
#82 - SMW2: Yoshi's Island

There's also this damnable list I bring up all the time AND the example people probably use the most to ridicule the list, but save your pitchforks. I want to point out two things:

1) Look on the Top 100 List and see how many games from it can beat a game forty-five places ahead of it. I only saw three other situations where it might happen after skimming through: FF > HL (not a given, considering how some people are taking HL > FF9 and HL2 > FF12), Halo 2 > DMC (Halo 2 was one of the only two write-ins to make it onto the list without the drop-down box), and F-Zero > Fire Emblem (*shrug*). That's an exceptionally large gap to be turned over just by changing the format to gauge them, even if you feel like EB is over-rated on it.

2) EB aside, SMW2:YI is surprisingly low on the list. It was beaten by a write-in (ToS at #81), beaten by twenty-one Nintendo games and ten SNES-games, and was only 81st out of 120-130 games in the drop-down box (forgot the exact number). The only other Nintendo/SNES game I know it beat is F-Zero, though there may have been others that didn't make the list.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1127

It got next-to-last place here, only ahead of THPS3.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1181

I don't know if the other SMB-games smashed it that low or if its unique style allowed it to stand that "strong," but it's not impressive either way. It's under SMB2, and even if you think SMW hurts it bad then it's on SMS's level in a best-case scenario (I think it's way too unique to be hurt like that though).



Pretty much, why is Yoshi's Island > Earthbound considered a given at this point? I think only one person has it picked in the BOP right now and SMW2:YI's not done much to warrant that status (though EB/Ness hasn't done much to warrant otherwise).
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/18/2009 11:52:09 AM | message detail
Because EB is stuck with Chrono Trigger.

a.k.a. the only SNES RPG more popular than it.

a.k.a. worst matchup possible.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/18/2009 11:55:57 AM | message detail
Well, besides FFVI.

And maybe SMRPG.

Point is CT is a pretty bad game for EB to be saddled with. It can still win but I'm not expecting it.

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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 11:59:28 AM | message detail
CT and FF3/6 combined didn't stop EB from smashing SMK and MMX in the first poll I posted though. Even if that's not completely viable for contest strength (and of course it's not), that's still something EB did much better than I would expect from SMW2:YI.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 3/18/2009 12:02:04 PM | message detail
You don't seem to understand. I'm an EB, FFIX, Tales of Symphonia, Ike fan. I know not to get my hopes up for anything by this point.

(EB has a chance but I think the smart money is on Mario franchise votin)

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 12:31:06 PM | message detail
You're looking too much into that poll. It means nothing. Are you going to carry Earthbound to the divisional finals too?
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 12:46:27 PM | message detail
Of course not, the winner of EB/SMW2:YI will be one-and-done (especially since SM64 will greet the winner). You can't deny that was a good poll for EB though. It got 22.23% in an eight-way poll including CT and another Nintendo game that outranked SMW2:YI. Whether or not that completely translates to this contest or not, EB's not in a bad position in its four-way against CT and SMW2:YI.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 12:54:46 PM | message detail
I still don't think that's a reason to consider it more popular. It'd be sad if most of the people DIDN'T vote for one of the few games that's never had any signs of life in America since... forever.

I mean, think of the Paper Mario/Zelda poll. These polls are just not reliable enough.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 1:22:40 PM | message detail
That poll is made even more unreliable by being essentially a tag-team poll though.

Anyway, then toss the SNES-VC poll away. SMW2:YI hasn't shown to be worth anything yet, and the one direct comparison we have of EB/SMW2:YI has EB smoking it plus SMW2:YI bombs in its own right if you toss EB aside again. The GBA-port of SMW2:YI barely beat THPS3 in 2002's GotY to avoid last place, and it only beat The Lost Levels as far as SMB-games on consoles go. Why the near-unanimous faith in it?
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ZFS | Posted 3/18/2009 1:24:49 PM | message detail
Here's a point about that GotY poll - Mario World got beat by Mega Man Battle Network. GBA ports of SNES games have always bombed in those things.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 1:25:42 PM | message detail
Remakes have a history of doing terrible in polls anyway, and it was a handheld remake.

What would you expect Super Mario RPG to get on Earthbound today? How far away is Super Mario World 2 from it? It can't be that far can it?

Not to mention that Yoshi has to get his popularity from somewhere. Most of it is probably due to character design but I think a good bit of it is actually that game as well.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 1:28:25 PM | message detail
Actually ignore that last paragraph, I just remembered Yoshi was in Super Mario World as well.. nevermind.

Well, who knows. I know it's a decent Mario game!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/18/2009 1:34:42 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #231
CT and FF3/6 combined didn't stop EB from smashing SMK and MMX in the first poll I posted though. Even if that's not completely viable for contest strength (and of course it's not), that's still something EB did much better than I would expect from SMW2:YI.


The wording of the poll is what you would like to see ported to the VC.

Both Final Fantasies, Mega Man X, and Chrono Trigger have all had fairly recent ports/remakes. Earthbound hasn't been seen since the original SNES cartridge.

And Super Mario Kart is extremely dated and all other Mario Karts are better options. I take that poll with a grain of salt and can't see Earthbound doing much there.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 1:36:09 PM | message detail
True enough about the ports -- it goes further than just SNES-ports, too. Just check out MGS2 here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1131


I don't know what SMRPG gets on EB or SMW2:YI, but it would break them both down. It's not like either of them are power-houses, and just because SMRPG is strong doesn't mean SMW2:YI will (again, the Top 100 List show this -- SMRPG's at #26 to SMW2:YI's #82).


As for Yoshi's popularity...I'd bet on it mainly coming from SMW and the Mario Kart series, honestly.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 1:44:32 PM | message detail
Super Mario World 2 is by no means hated or unpopular enough to struggle with Earthbound. It's a marry game after all. I think it sold about as well or probably better than Super Mario RPG (however I don't think it's on VC..).

It's weaker than RPG, but it can't be that far away. It's still a Mario game that wasn't hated (lol 2) and it still has the Mario name.

The list is the best argument here, but it can't be the only one. Earthbound is sharing a poll with two other RPG's after all.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/18/2009 1:46:10 PM | message detail
When Mario fans talk about their favourite Mario games Yoshi's Island is one of those forgotten games, it's not hated like Super Mario Sunshine, but most Mario fans tend to enjoy other Mario games more than Yoshi's Island.
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/18/2009 1:47:49 PM | message detail
Also the list is basically who has the most hardcore fans, there's a reason why Halo 2 and Tales of Symphonia were the only games to be on the list and not on the drop down list.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 2:05:56 PM | message detail
Both Final Fantasies, Mega Man X, and Chrono Trigger have all had fairly recent ports/remakes. Earthbound hasn't been seen since the original SNES cartridge.

Fair enough point. That said, emulation has helped CT and EB a lot too, and they still dominated. The poll was probably treated as a mix of "What would you like to play on the VC most?" and "Which do you like the most?" by voters...but I wonder how many people there are that have heard of EB and want to try it that much but haven't yet (and, really, the same goes for most of the games in that poll). It's clouded enough to not be really accurate, but it's still pretty valuable for EB.


And Super Mario Kart is extremely dated and all other Mario Karts are better options. I take that poll with a grain of salt and can't see Earthbound doing much there.

SSB did well enough in the N64-VC poll though. I also feel the same way about LoZ:MM in the same poll, though that's not as agreed upon, I'm sure. Either way, that alone doesn't excuse its beating there.


Earthbound is sharing a poll with two other RPG's after all.

True, and that's an advantage for SMW2:YI. That said...


the list is basically who has the most hardcore fans

...in a poll where CT is going to be taking lots of votes, it should become a battle between EB's and SMW2:YI's hardcore fans. It hasn't worked for Ness in the past (hello, Mewtwo), but games =/= characters and SMW2:YI is no Pokemon R/B/Y anyway.



I think it'll be an interesting R1 match that just hadn't been given the attention it likely deserves.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/18/2009 2:07:13 PM | message detail
I wonder how weak EB and Ness would be without smash bros
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/18/2009 2:11:21 PM | message detail
Oh man, much worse off. Still, you can't discount the attention SSB gave to EB at this point.
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trannyscience | Posted 3/18/2009 2:20:28 PM | message detail
EB is a cute upset pick that will get its 10-12%, but YI is probably out of its league there. plus, CT.
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voltch | Posted 3/18/2009 4:20:22 PM | message detail
hmmm,what if EB gets a big rally like for that poll where it came close to trigger?

can SMW2,really hold that off?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/18/2009 4:20:56 PM | message detail
so uh.

I'm now debating Oblivion > GTA SA.
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Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.