GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 657
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2009 11:51:46 PM | message detail |
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Final Fantasy 7 is so screwed. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. And remember to ignore any and all trolls, since one-sided trolling always ends fast. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| Big Bob | Posted 3/13/2009 11:55:48 PM | message detail |
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^5 --- Here's our chance for an all-out attack! http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=big_bob |
| ZFS | Posted 3/13/2009 11:57:32 PM | message detail |
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More people should pick Ocarina - less brackets to contend with! --- http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/3151/hadoukend.gif |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:09:47 AM | message detail |
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Real men avoid FF7 and OoT. 5 year old data will not avail you, fools! --- Mr Lasastryke They call me Mr L. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 12:18:29 AM | message detail |
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From: Lopen | Posted: 3/14/2009 3:09:47 AM | #004 In every contest but one, the Zelda series has taken first or second place. And we all know the true final of Spring 2004 was FF7/OOT, anyway. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:24:22 AM | message detail |
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Characters and series have more reason to remain more constant than
games do, that's all I'm sayin. Not to mention our data on games is
years old and those games are both over 10 years old now. I would be
shocked if we had FF7 > OoT or vice versa as the final result for
this. And this isn't just me fiending for an upset here. There is an
L-Block or a Solid Snake in the wings here. --- Mr Lasastryke They call me Mr L. |
| TheOceIot | Posted 3/14/2009 12:25:36 AM | message detail |
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OoT>FFVII>SMB3>FFX The truth --- Currently Playing: Chrono Trigger DS, Deus Ex, Suikoden Tierkreis http://img.imgcake.com/ducks2.jpg |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 3/14/2009 12:25:44 AM | message detail |
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tag --- The Straight Up G The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 3/14/2009 12:35:35 AM | message detail |
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In every contest but one, the Zelda series has taken first or second
place. And we all know the true final of Spring 2004 was FF7/OOT,
anyway. Assuming you define second place as "making the finals" (which makes sense, otherwise you wouldn't be listing SpC2k4 as an exception), Zelda has taken neither first nor second in two - Summer 2003 and Spring 2004. That's not a very good argument considering FF has done the same in every contest but three - and those were at the hands of Super Mario, L-Block, and Snake-Block. It's much more impressive, I think, to point out instead Zelda's first place dominance alone - in every contest but three, it's come in first place... ...but that's also kind of misleading. OoT's victory is absolutely dependent on, at least in part, the success of Final Fantasy - specifically FFX. An optimal FFX correlates to an optimal FF7, unless FFX gets bandwagoned at the expense of FF7. (but... why?) --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:57:13 AM | message detail |
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No, 5. Anyway, some people thought Arthas had a shot to upset Alucard, but he completly fell off the map and had more difficulty with Falcon then Alucard using the WC3 picture, so I don't think theres any debate that his WoW boxart picture helped him a good deal. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/image/sonic-next-gen-fail.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:58:36 AM | message detail |
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You're right, there's no debate on the matter. ... because you're the only one who is even suggesting the idea. --- 6% Next 2 Miles |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:59:57 AM | message detail |
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From Ngamers wrap up of the match regarding Arthas: "As for Arthas, I guess last round all the WC3 players were voting for him based on his name while all the WoW players were voting in support of the WotLK box they'll be buying soon. So switching to this old picture continues to get WC3ers involved, but WoW no longer cares and that caused his drop. " http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Pikachu_vs_Alucard_vs_Arthas_vs_Falcon_2008 So no, I'm not the only one. Its the general consensus, actually. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/image/sonic-next-gen-fail.jpg |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 1:00:51 AM | message detail |
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I forgot all about 2003's final, but again, the true final was Link/Cloud. This is reflected in the stats. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| voltch | Posted 3/14/2009 1:02:25 AM | message detail |
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oh,must have gone blind,but haven't seen lopen in a bit,what's he got this time? wow and halo to the finals? --- Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217 |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 3/14/2009 1:05:12 AM | message detail |
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That required Alucard to falter a bit. Alucard was close to Pikachu. Round 1 Arthas wasn't on that level. --- Not even a spread of 105 points would allowed me to defeat FastFalcon05! Congrats on winning the Character Battle 7 Guru Contest! |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 1:05:40 AM | message detail |
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For NGamer's one analysis I can find 5 analyses that don't even bring
it up. People can overanalyze any factor out of anything, doesn't make
it right. Regardless, even assuming it's true, that says nothing other
than "WoW Arthas fans are more fickle." No one can say what happens if
you remove the WC3 voters from Arthas-- but I'd gamble it to look
closer to Hogger than Arthas. --- 6% Next 2 Miles |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 1:06:58 AM | message detail |
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From: Team Rocket Elite | #015 Thats true, but like I didn't bother rallying for Arthas anymroe once he had it wrapped up, and I'm sure others who rallied for him felt the same way. If he was able to retain the same strength from round 1 and was closer to Alucard, the power of the rallies could have definently of made him stronger from round 1 and possibly compete with alucard. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/image/sonic-next-gen-fail.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 1:07:51 AM | message detail |
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Nah Voltch ya didn't go blind. I haven't been here. With a bracket
actually in existence though, I have returned till the contest is over
once again. (did you just say I had wow in the finals !!) --- 6% Next 2 Miles |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 3/14/2009 1:25:36 AM | message detail |
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Predict this 4-pack! Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater God of War The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Resident Evil 4 --- GT: TriggerTRE Now Playing: Street Fighter IV |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 1:31:46 AM | message detail |
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Re4 > TP no question. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/oops.jpg |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 3/14/2009 1:38:02 AM | message detail |
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I'm predicting all Zelda games do be some sort of beast in this contest so TP > MGS3. --- GT: TriggerTRE Now Playing: Street Fighter IV |
| voltch | Posted 3/14/2009 1:54:34 AM | message detail |
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damnit didn't want this to happen but i got FFVII>OoT>LTTP>FFX
for the final,had MGS4 in for X,but i got TP going out to RE4 and MGS4
cos of galaxy,now how stupid is that decision? it's a big gamble with all those points at stake,also what if melee edges out X? GRRRR,hard bracket,wrong reasons. --- Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 7:54:47 AM | message detail |
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It seems like Duck Hunt is the favorite so far. I'm curious to hear some arguments for it. I've tried to propose some but the only thing I can come up with is that there are more than enough Mario AND Duck Hunt fans over Ninja Gaiden. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 7:56:36 AM | message detail |
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I figured Duck Hunt a non factor cuz its got the worst possible type of SFF there is; same cartridge SFF --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/oops.jpg |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 3/14/2009 8:52:22 AM | message detail |
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Why isn't Galaga in this conversation? It's universally known on almost the same level as Tetris. --- GT: TriggerTRE Now Playing: Street Fighter IV |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 8:53:23 AM | message detail |
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Uh.. I wouldn't say the same level. I'm honestly expecting it to get last. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 9:01:50 AM | message detail |
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Super Mario Bros > Ninja Gaiden is most likely. People seem to
forget Duck Hunt was on the same cartridge as Super Mario Bros. http://ui30.gamespot.com/1693/supermariobros1_2.jpg --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/oops.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/14/2009 9:10:59 AM | message detail |
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I love these WoW discussions, because the only evidence against WoW
doing decently is Arthas being a midcarder despite the fact that he
wasn't even involved in WoW until the latest expansion. I think Arthas
would be a lot stronger if we had another character battle now. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 9:13:13 AM | message detail |
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Yes, it's on the same cartridge, but Ninja Gaiden sucks that much. and the idea of somebody liking Duck Hunt more than Super Mario Bros.. isn't really impossible. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 10:39:53 AM | message detail |
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What's more amazing is the lead Portal has over Bioshock. Big Daddy was
pretty decent plus I think GlaDOS would be a better representation of
Portal's strength than WCC. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 10:45:12 AM | message detail |
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If by decent you mean losing to Balthier who easily lost to Ada Wong. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 3/14/2009 10:47:47 AM | message detail |
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Neither GlaDOS nor Cube are good representatives of Portal. GlaDOS is unrecognizable to the max, and Cube has the joke factor. Still, I think Portal is going to thrive in 4-ways much more so than Bioshock, and Orange Box ownership is probably comparable to Bioshock ownership. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 10:53:05 AM | message detail |
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I'd say Portals strength should be more comparable to WCCs strength
then GlaDOS. Since WCC is kinda the icon of Portal when people think of
it. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/oops.jpg |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 10:54:33 AM | message detail |
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If by decent you mean losing to Balthier who easily lost to Ada Wong. The two Balthiers are different, just like Midna. Scorpion - 50.00% Gordon - 48.61% Balthier - 42.72% Ada Wong - 50.00% Balthier - 46.21% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 10:55:37 AM | message detail |
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I'd say Portals strength should be more comparable to WCCs strength
then GlaDOS. Since WCC is kinda the icon of Portal when people think of
it. The thing is I don't see Portal getting the joke votes that WCC got. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 10:56:41 AM | message detail |
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I think it should get the meme votes that GlaDOS lacked by being pretty unrecognizable, though. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/albion+hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/oops.jpg |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 11:10:26 AM | message detail |
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/14/2009 1:39:53 PM | #023 I know nothing of either game's fanbase, and went with the one whose characters did better. Plus I vaguely remember finding a comparison where Portal did better in some poll. It's honestly just a random guess. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 11:13:36 AM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2990 Would anybody say CoD4 holds Bioshock back? --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 11:17:51 AM | message detail |
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If anything that poll should provide support for Bioshock since The
Orange Box could also refer to Half-Life 2 or Team Fortress 2 --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 11:30:27 AM | message detail |
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Also if we're talking about Portal in terms of strength I'd say it's
somewhere between Glad and WCC though it may actually equal WCC. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| Heroic Common Sense | Posted 3/14/2009 11:36:50 AM | message detail |
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From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 3/14/2009 10:01:50 AM | #027 Ninja Gaiden has SUCKED in EVERY SINGLE POLL it has EVER been in. Duck Hunt can seriously advance with like 11% of the vote. --- .,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,. Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2009 11:49:42 AM | message detail |
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...Couldn't Duck Hunt being on the same cartridge as SMB also be an
advantage, not just a disadvantage? After all, that means Duck Hunt's
got a much greater play rate than Ninja Gaiden. And SMB LFFs any and every game on the NES, because EVERYONE who owned an NES played it! Same with Duck Hunt! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 11:51:10 AM | message detail |
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yeah that's why i recently switched my pick to Duck Hunt. and am now considering DWII/Metroid/Contra a three-way race sorta. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 11:51:49 AM | message detail |
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I like to think of SMB/DH like Mario/Pac-Man in terms of SFF, the only
difference is SMB will probably be SFF both NG and Galaga. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2009 11:53:27 AM | message detail |
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Also, in the Games Contest, I think name recognition and brand names
are going to be HUGE. That's why I can see most Mario games going far,
and that's why I can see Mario Galaxy AND Brawl advancing in the second
round despite CoD4 there. Remember Mario Bros./Warcraft from the Series
Contest when they tried rallying for Warcraft? Nearly ALL of them voted
for Mario. Which is why I think it's kinda humorous that people think Pokemon R/B/Y can place in a poll with Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy Tactics, and Zelda: Majora's Mask. Three of those are part of GameFAQs' top 5 series. Guess which one isn't. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 11:55:01 AM | message detail |
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Reason I'm picking Ninja Gaiden for #2: Figure people who have no
attachment to any of the games will vote for it. They're all going to
be weak in the face of Mario, but Ninja Gaiden being the only other
name that's relevant to gaming today will get it enough votes to snag
second. --- 6% Next 2 Miles |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2009 11:56:36 AM | message detail |
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Don't forget there's going to be a Duck Hunt Wii! Or so I heard! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 3/14/2009 11:57:23 AM | message detail |
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and am now considering DWII/Metroid/Contra a three-way race sorta. DWIII is a non-factor here, maybe if the contest was held 15 years ago things may be different. The question you should ask yourself is if LoZ is comparable at SFFing Metorid as SMB3 was. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 3/14/2009 11:58:15 AM | message detail |
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The question you should ask yourself is if LoZ is comparable at SFFing Metorid as SMB3 was. Series Contest says yes. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/14/2009 12:07:08 PM | message detail |
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but Ninja Gaiden being the only other name that's relevant to gaming today will get it enough votes to snag second. And if you look at every single Ninja Gaiden poll, even its brand name isn't enough to beat anything but unknown games. --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
