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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 656

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/11/2009 9:18:16 PM | message detail

We need a favorite Resident Evil game poll.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

HaRRicH | Posted 3/11/2009 9:19:12 PM | message detail

RE2 and RE4 look to be in good shape!

What a weird result though.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

FFDragon | Posted 3/11/2009 9:19:25 PM | message detail

It would sadly go to RE4 in a walk.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
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Yesmar | Posted 3/11/2009 9:20:50 PM | message detail

In retrospect, it's probably just that Jill SFF's/is LFFd by everyone except for Leon who's able to rely on the independent nature of RE4's fanbase.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Gaddswell | Posted 3/11/2009 9:21:17 PM | message detail

Kinda funny to see Wesker actually be 3rd here, knowing his history!

Ada, Chris, and Claire all look much more awful than they probably are.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/11/2009 9:21:50 PM | message detail

Wesker's starting to run away with third place. Hopefully Jill also pulls a bit closer to Leon.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/11/2009 9:21:58 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #152
RE2 and RE4 look to be in good shape!

How do you figure RE2?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

ffmasterjose | Posted 3/11/2009 9:29:25 PM | message detail

Mistah Kennedy of course.
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/11/2009 9:37:58 PM | message detail

I'd bet it's more of RE4 than RE2.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

ffmasterjose | Posted 3/11/2009 9:43:09 PM | message detail

Oh heck yeah. I'm still not trusting RE2 to win right now >_>
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!

MegatokyoEd | Posted 3/11/2009 10:01:27 PM | message detail

Wesker in third is pretty hilarious considering his contest history. Though, he definitely has the most independent fanbase.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

MoogleKupo141 | Posted 3/11/2009 10:03:01 PM | message detail

Doesn't Wesker in third make sense with his contest history? He does poorly, but it's not like the other non-Leon/Jill characters do well either.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/11/2009 10:06:30 PM | message detail

There's doing poorly, then there's letting Kefka get 70% on you and losing to a Tales character
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

transience | Posted 3/11/2009 10:06:34 PM | message detail

we have one pre-RE4, actually.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=883
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xyzzy

RPGuy96 | Posted 3/11/2009 10:07:17 PM | message detail

I am suddenly not the least bit frightened of RE2.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 3/11/2009 10:08:15 PM | message detail

Kefka and Ocelot were about comparable:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2097
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1323

Now look at this:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1991
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2009

I guess that was the one time Kefka got game picture, but that's still a huge difference.
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Not even a spread of 105 points would allowed me to defeat FastFalcon05! Congrats on winning the Character Battle 7 Guru Contest!

HaRRicH | Posted 3/11/2009 10:09:09 PM | message detail

For what it's worth:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=305
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1179

Those are the two most relevant RE2-polls I found -- the second one is a newer version of the same poll tranny posted. RE2 looked to be the biggest RE-game until RE4 hit.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/11/2009 10:10:16 PM | message detail

Very suspect poll. REMake was only a month or two old and obviously very hot, and the poll only has a quarter of the votes we'd expect to see from a contest match.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/11/2009 10:10:47 PM | message detail

Bah.. the only match i'm currently debating right now in the top half is RE2/MarioRPG.

Once again, a close match, but not with DKC2 there.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

transience | Posted 3/11/2009 10:11:30 PM | message detail

oh, whoops. I knew I saw RE2 do better than that when I was looking at it a couple days ago.

I'm pretty sure the hierarchy goes RE4 >> RE2 > RE1/3. this is somewhat obvious, I'd say.
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xyzzy

transience | Posted 3/11/2009 10:12:09 PM | message detail

though I guess if you count REmake and RE1 together as the same game, it *might* outdo RE2.
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xyzzy

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/11/2009 10:13:00 PM | message detail

RE2 always was the most popular until 4 came around. Those results aren't surprising.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

HaRRicH | Posted 3/11/2009 10:13:25 PM | message detail

Having a RE1/RE2-match would be cool in a way, actually.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/11/2009 11:05:24 PM | message detail

I'm surprised that Wesker is doing well here. After all, this is the same Wesker that lost to a Tales character and let Kefka get over 70% on him. And considering Ada's performance here, Ada/Balthier just becomes all the more hilarious.
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/11/2009 11:06:15 PM | message detail

This poll looks mighty bad for Chris Redfield, who was supposed to be our new Leon.
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greatone10 | Posted 3/12/2009 2:04:07 AM | message detail

Nobody has played RE5 yet, so I would wait until passing judgment on Chris just yet.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

Chaotic Mind | Posted 3/12/2009 3:29:40 AM | message detail

I don't know how people think RE2 is going to advance out of round 1. Look at the stats from the last games contest: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/16

RE1 is way below both SMRPG and GE. RE2 didn't even make the contest that year. I know GE will have to deal with some Nintendo-LFF, but enough to let RE2 slip by? I highly doubt it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 3:38:48 AM | message detail

Um.. we're talking about RE2 beating Super Mario RPG.

And I wouldn't look at RE to judge RE2 by considering it lost to a game that got SFF'd and possibly SFF'd by the game being mentioned.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

greatone10 | Posted 3/12/2009 3:41:57 AM | message detail

Not to mention that the RE series as a whole was revitalized when RE4 came out. Back in 04, Resident Evil seemed like it was slowly fading into obscurity.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 4:20:22 AM | message detail

Hm. You know, I never thought about it until now, but could Tetris actually beat Mega Man or am I thinking too hard?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/12/2009 4:32:25 AM | message detail

RE5 actually needs to get out and played by a lot of people before Chris jumps up in that character poll. I mean, sure, just being announced in RE5 and having a RE5 pic last year probably boosted him, but he ain't gonna top Leon Kennedy that way.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 3/12/2009 4:44:33 AM | message detail

http://kotaku.com/5168448/shevas-sexy-secret-costume

Sheva for Character Battle VIII!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 4:51:32 AM | message detail

You know what, I'm seriously thinking RE2 is going to feel the burn from GE here.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/12/2009 4:57:20 AM | message detail

I've thought that myself. I've still got Mario RPG advancing despite DKC2, but that's just an upset pick to me.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2009 5:08:50 AM | message detail

Shouldn't Wesker in third remind everyone that using polls to predict game/character contest is a bad idea? You might as well use the top 10 games.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509

Calintares | Posted 3/12/2009 5:24:46 AM | message detail

A question:

How many people need to vote in a series of polls in order for it to be statistically relevant enough to assume transitivity in the "average" voter?

Tl:Dr how many people need to vote before you can use (lol) X-stats?
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/12/2009 5:25:35 AM | message detail

There are no X-stats relevant to this contest, honestly.
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/12/2009 5:36:49 AM | message detail

The sample size has been big enough in every contest, but the problem is that we need it to be 1v1 for x-stats to be useful at all. One basic assumption is that character performance can be derived from only one variable, "strength." It's not a true assumption, but generally works pretty well in 1v1s. In 4-ways, there are many other things going on in each match so that's it's not possible to isolate strength.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.

charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2009 5:49:00 AM | message detail

The same problems can arise in both one vs. one and 4-ways, it's just that error is amplified in 4-ways giving us less accurate stats.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509

ffmasterjose | Posted 3/12/2009 7:38:09 AM | message detail

Man, Balthier's just weaksauce.
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0/0 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Tetris > Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!

HaRRicH | Posted 3/12/2009 7:49:38 AM | message detail

SMRPG can still win, but man, that's a lot of Nintendo/Rare in a poll against RE2. If RE2 > RE1, MGS SFF'd RE any, FF7 SFF'd MGS any, RE4 revitalized the series any, or RE5 brings in more RE-fans...well, that helps too. SMRPG probably took some SFF against CT in 2004 too, but I don't know much much we'll get to really see that with DKC2 and even GE in the poll.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 8:01:24 AM | message detail

if MGS can SFF RE, I don't see why Goldeneye, a game released in the same year as it (and it was also on the same console but mainly bigger on the PSX) can't do SOME damage to it.

Super Mario RPG is also like.. the only RPG.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 8:03:27 AM | message detail

Also, I was wondering, since we're having games in a 4-way format, anybody ever considered the 'nostalgia' factor?

Just think, in a format where only hardcore fans prevail, nostalgia is one of the biggest reasons to even BE hardcore.

It would make for some surprising upsets like Sonic > SFII, or even Pokemon > MM.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/12/2009 8:52:49 AM | message detail

I don't know where people get this idea that Pokemon's going to beat Zelda, even if it is Majora's Mask.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 3/12/2009 8:56:24 AM | message detail

That one's going to end badly, but it is made kinda funny by the fact that some people are referencing the series contest. Pokemon put up 48% on Metroid, the same series that Zelda barely squeezed by with an unimpressive 85%. Too close for comfort!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

HaRRicH | Posted 3/12/2009 9:12:57 AM | message detail

Oh, I figure GE may hurt RE2 a little, but I don't think GE's really going to SFF anybody; it should be LFF in this case...whatever GE does to RE2 (assuming anything) will be negligible compared to DKC2, SMRPG, and GE sharing Nintendo/Rare, plus DKC2/SMRPG share the SNES while RE2 is the most independent.

If RE2 is respectable, I think it's got it. It's just too much against SMRPG; I was all for it to beat RE2 when it was just sharing the poll with GE. Once Fallout was replaced with DKC2 though...RE2 is going to stand out a lot and RE now isn't the same RE we saw five years ago.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1454
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2805

It's amazing what RE4 did for the series again, and RE2 was the series-favorite before it came along. Leon's doing very well today too (mainly for RE4, but still). I'll give RE2 its shot.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Calintares | Posted 3/12/2009 9:23:45 AM | message detail

charmander6000 | Posted 3/12/2009 9:41:30 AM | message detail

My question was more theoretical. I know that the number of voters in the Gamefaqs contests (at the very least 50 000) is enough. On the other hand, I have made X-stats for a couple of user- made contests on Board 8, and I strongly suspect that those stats were useless except as a way to show how pathetic some of the entrants were.

so my question is: what is the theoretical lower limit of voters needed to use x-stats? also, what other things can render x-stats useless (e.g. joke entrants) and why?

I don't think there's an answer, but think it like this; the x-stats are the average rankings of voters of their favourite games/whatever, however opinions aren't linear which is why the x-stats aren't exact. The more people voting the smaller the error. For example if you take five random voters and compare their favourite games you'll get a different x-stats. To explain SFF let's say that a disproportionate, compare to the x-stats amount of people have Super Mario Bros. 3 above Metorid no matter where the two games appear on the list, we're going to see SMB3 get a higher percent than what was expected from the stats. Joke characters/hard core fans tend to have a game high up on their list where the average person has it significantly lower. This causes a problem in 4-ways because the hard core voters won't abandon their game while the other voters who wouldn't have normally voted for the game if it was up against each game individually is stuck with three choices inflating their value.
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Submit BOP here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48529509

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 9:41:53 AM | message detail

I think the reason why anybody would have Pokemon over MM in the first round would be more about MM splitting up with Perfect Dark a tad more than the strength outright.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/12/2009 9:45:28 AM | message detail

Also, the series contest was a 1 vs 1 ordeal. I guarantee that in this format, you're going to see some unexpected things.

Pokemon has nostalgia probably more than all 4 of those games, and it's the only one NOT on the N64. Seeing it net 1st place just in that one match doesn't seem too bad
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

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