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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 656

Big Bob | Posted 3/13/2009 11:46:45 PM | message detail
Dammit Ulti, if you take OoT to win then I'll no longer be unique!
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Lopen | Posted 3/13/2009 11:47:10 PM | message detail
Watch out for the game that loses in the first round! Its got final 4 power!

Master Chief lost in R1 to Sub-Zero 1v1 as well. Really hurt him in 2k7, where he was about 4000 votes away from the final 4. Not all Halo 3 hype, either-- Master Chief did poorly last year in comparison, but still much better than he would in 1v1.
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Mr Lasastryke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/13/2009 11:49:16 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #452
Watch out for the game that loses in the first round! Its got final 4 power!

Master Chief lost in R1 to Sub-Zero 1v1 as well. Really hurt him in 2k7, where he was about 4000 votes away from the final 4. Not all Halo 3 hype, either-- Master Chief did poorly last year in comparison, but still much better than he would in 1v1.


Still I wouldn't say Halo was erally THAT strong. It lost first round to a non bandwagon starcraft.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2009 11:49:56 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | Posted: 3/14/2009 2:46:45 AM | #451
Dammit Ulti, if you take OoT to win then I'll no longer be unique!


We can't possibly have the same bracket.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/13/2009 11:51:34 PM | message detail
The reason why I don't get why anyone has faith in Vice City:

Tommy Vercetti (2004c) VS Tommy Vercetti (2007c)

Tommy Vercetti has a strength of 25.92.
Tommy Vercetti has a strength of 16.25.

Tommy Vercetti wins with 68.65% of the vote!
A win of 35,992 with 96,474 total votes cast.
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Lopen | Posted 3/13/2009 11:52:30 PM | message detail
I personally think the Starcraft bandwagon power is a bit overrated. Granted, I do think FFX would've beat it in R1, but I doubt it would've been by much. But even if they're only remotely close in 1v1 strength, the format can swing that for Halo of all games.
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Mr Lasastryke
They call me Mr L.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2009 11:54:58 PM | message detail
I agree, Starcraft is being overrated. People forget it rallied in a contest with VERY low vote totals. That won't fly this time around; Starcraft needs legit strength.
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Big Bob | Posted 3/13/2009 11:55:16 PM | message detail
Well, as far as my justification goes:

I have a theory that the modern game is more likely to have an attachment to Zelda than Final Fantasy. Lots of new Wii owners, and Ocarina of Time is right up there on the Virtual Console for everyone to play. People who never played it have now heard about it and can play it for themselves. Also, Twilight Princess was generally more well received than Final Fantasy XII was, and is much more approachable to someone new to the series.

Contrastly, FFVII has yet to see a rerelease. Sure, there have been spinoffs, but how many people are going to play Crisis Core unless they were a FFVII fan to begin with? Not very many, and considering that FFVII is getting older and GameFAQs' fanbase is getting larger, it's not going to be as strong as it was years ago.

I'm betting my whole bracket on FFVII falling, so I better be right.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/13/2009 11:55:40 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #457
I agree, Starcraft is being overrated. People forget it rallied in a contest with VERY low vote totals. That won't fly this time around; Starcraft needs legit strength.


The higher votals is offset by the 4way format, where it won't need as many rallied votes as it would in 1v1.
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transience | Posted 3/13/2009 11:55:45 PM | message detail
very low vote totals won't matter though when the votes are split four ways.

I do think it's stupid overrated though.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2009 11:56:20 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | Posted: 3/14/2009 2:55:16 AM | #456
Well, as far as my justification goes:

I have a theory that the modern game is more likely to have an attachment to Zelda than Final Fantasy. Lots of new Wii owners, and Ocarina of Time is right up there on the Virtual Console for everyone to play. People who never played it have now heard about it and can play it for themselves. Also, Twilight Princess was generally more well received than Final Fantasy XII was, and is much more approachable to someone new to the series.

Contrastly, FFVII has yet to see a rerelease. Sure, there have been spinoffs, but how many people are going to play Crisis Core unless they were a FFVII fan to begin with? Not very many, and considering that FFVII is getting older and GameFAQs' fanbase is getting larger, it's not going to be as strong as it was years ago.

I'm betting my whole bracket on FFVII falling, so I better be right.


Okay, but we can't have IDENTICAL brackets. I'm sure we differ somewhere.
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Lopen | Posted 3/13/2009 11:57:30 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm not saying it's overrated here. I'm saying the amount of Starcraft's power that is the bandwagon is being overrated. Game is still a fairly serious threat without rallying. Couldn't see FFX beating it by more than 55-45 in 2k4's R1.
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Mr Lasastryke
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/13/2009 11:58:03 PM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 3/14/2009 2:55:45 AM | #457
very low vote totals won't matter though when the votes are split four ways.

I do think it's stupid overrated though.


I have Starcraft winning its first match (the one with FF8, Xenogears and Soul Calibur), placing second against OOT (Soul Calibur and Half-Life can't match Starcraft's natural strength), then losing in that big OOT/MGS match.
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transience | Posted 3/14/2009 12:02:39 AM | message detail
you have Soul Calibur over FF8? I wanna hear about that one.
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:02:46 AM | message detail
Personally I think 2k4's rallied/bandwagoned Starcraft is capable of winning the bracket outright or taking second place. 4 ways should more than offset the vote total discrepancy. Thing is I have my doubts of whether Starcraft will have that rallying/bandwagon power anymore. Barring a Starcraft 2 release/concrete release announcement over the course of the contest or something like that.
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Mr Lasastryke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:04:18 AM | message detail
Thing is I have my doubts of whether Starcraft will have that rallying/bandwagon power anymore. Barring a Starcraft 2 release/concrete release announcement over the course of the contest or something like that.

....You don't understand blizzard games, do you?
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:05:21 AM | message detail
....You don't understand blizzard games, do you?

They're timeless to some degree yes, but you're not going to tell me Starcraft is as popular now as it was 5 years ago.
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Mr Lasastryke
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 12:05:22 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 3/14/2009 3:02:39 AM | #461
you have Soul Calibur over FF8? I wanna hear about that one.


FF8 gets anti-voted like nothing else, plus Xenogears is there to make it even weaker. SC isn't strong, but it doesn't need to be.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:05:36 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #467
....You don't understand blizzard games, do you?

They're timeless to some degree yes, but you're not going to tell me Starcraft is as popular now as it was 5 years ago.


Why not? Its played just as much.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:06:02 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #468
FF8 gets anti-voted like nothing else, plus Xenogears is there to make it even weaker. SC isn't strong, but it doesn't need to be.


How exactly is FF8 gonna be anti voted in 4ways?
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:08:20 AM | message detail
Why not? Its played just as much.

Is it? I haven't looked at the battle.net numbers for Starcraft recently but I just played D2 a few weeks ago for a few hours and playership seemed pretty noticeably down. This combined with me never seeing any talk about Starcraft unless I explicitly go looking for it (not the case in 04 at all) makes me think the game doesn't have all its rabid KEKEKEers anymore.
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Mr Lasastryke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:09:49 AM | message detail
Diablo 2 has gone down in playership last few years due to WoW, since they're pretty similiar games (both online rpgs), but from what I've seen, Starcrafts playrate has stayed pretty similiar.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:11:42 AM | message detail
I'm skeptical, but I'll do some "research" (excuse to play Starcraft sounds good to me!) before bracket finalization to be sure.
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Mr Lasastryke
They call me Mr L.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 12:11:52 AM | message detail
WoW notwithstanding, I don't think Blizzard rallying will make much difference this contest. As a heavy D2 player, I can guarantee you we've grown very adept at ignoring spam bots. Starcraft isn't going to get a big rally either, because a large part of 2004 was starting out against the HATED Halo: Combat Evolved. People had those rallies ready from the day they saw that bracket come out with that 1 v 16 Halo v Starcraft crap.

This contest, that buzz simply isn't there. I think Starcraft has to rely on natural strength, and it'll get killed in round 3. The Blizzard people have moved on to WoW. WoW is an interesting beast, because it has a soft path. No one cares about Halo 2, MGS3 is being overrated and GTA has fallen off the map. WoW should easily win two matches, but then it's stuck against that OOT/RE4 duo.

WoW can and will win this contest if it gets through round 3, but I don't think it will. RE4 and OOT seem like the type of games immune to some rally.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/14/2009 12:12:55 AM | message detail
Lopen, why are you dignifying a known troll with a response. This topic gets a lot less annoying when you remember the ignore button exists.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:14:11 AM | message detail
WoW should easily win two matches, but then it's stuck against that OOT/RE4 duo.

RE4/TP you mean. And RE4 is safe I think, but I have a feeling TP MIGHT be able to be upset. I'm not totally sold on that game. Still, RE4 > TP is the safe bet.
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transience | Posted 3/14/2009 12:15:45 AM | message detail
that's TP, not OOT, and if Nintendo has cooled off as much as it seems we could have a pathetic TP. it's possible. that division is pretty weak, though I think MGS3 is legit. that said, everything else could easily roll up and die and let WOW ride second place all the way.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:18:12 AM | message detail
Not to mention alot of RE4s support comes from the Gamecube version which could hurt TP a little bit.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:18:33 AM | message detail
Albion's not a troll imhhho.

As for WoW-- that's a burning ship. Game draws what-- 9% in the playership polls? It's less screwed in a four way situation but this is a game that's going to be all rally here. I don't think rally can get it over much that's not Laharl and Ramza SFFing each other if you catch my drift. Thing's out in R1 against Halo 2 and MGS3.
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Mr Lasastryke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:19:34 AM | message detail
I do troll sometimes but thats typically outside of this topic. I don't really attempt to troll here.
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TheOceIot | Posted 3/14/2009 12:22:49 AM | message detail
Thing's out in R1 against Halo 2 and MGS3.

Amen. This site hates WoW and there is no way it's getting past a Halo title and and MGS game without some serious rallying or cheating.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:25:10 AM | message detail
The thing that does help WoW is that its essentially got the recency of a new game since its still played tons by people, as opposed to games like MGS3 and Halo 2 which aren't really played by many people right now. Part of the reason why people think SF4 could advance is the recency, so I don't see why that wouldn't help WoW too.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:29:24 AM | message detail
Put Halo 2 and MGS3 in a poll that says:

"When was the last time you played _____"
- Today, actually!
- In the last week.
- In the last few months.
- In the last year.
- I can't remember!

I'd wager they'd be able to beat WoW's playership with the first three options pretty easily, meaning they've got as much "recency factor" here was WoW does if that were true. Really, recency means nothing when you only get 9%.
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Mr Lasastryke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:32:35 AM | message detail
... I don't know how to answer something so absurd. Are you really trying to say games from 5 years ago without much replayability (especially with Halo 3 out so nobody plays Halo 2 multiplayer anymore) are played more then WoW? Just on this board which where WoW isn't very popular, WoW would easily do better then those two games there.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:35:20 AM | message detail
In the last few months? It's not a stretch for popular games to manage 10% playership. I'm not saying they play it as much as WoW or anything... but let's not dodge the main issue here. 10% playership. Recency does not spawn players, Albion. Where are the voters coming from.
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Next 2 Miles
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:36:30 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3328

No idea where you are getting 10%. I'm seeing 35% people who've played it on the site there.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:40:04 AM | message detail
12% play right now.
3% not much at all.
18% quit "some time ago"

So you're looking at 15% "recency factor" at best, more like 12%. That's where my number comes from. It's not exactly in the minds of many right now. Negligible. Halo 2 and MGS3 both dwarf that total playrate.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:41:33 AM | message detail
16% of people are not playing Halo 2 and MGS3 recently. And the 35% who have played it is still 35% playership even though they've quit, since almost every game people have essentially "Quit" if they don't play it now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:44:25 AM | message detail
Anyway, I rest my case with this post I made earlier:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=48531379&message=532131939

My Games:

World of Warcraft: 1027 Currently Playing
Okami: 123 Currently Playing
Metal Gear Solid 3: 106 Currently Playing
Halo 2: 129 Currently Playing


Halo 2 and MGS3 have no where near the recency of WoW
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ZFS | Posted 3/14/2009 12:44:58 AM | message detail
Why does it matter how many people are currently playing MGS3/Halo 2 vs. how many people are playing WoW? Most single player games would crush multiplayer ones, being played more often isn't any kind of advantage, honestly.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:46:29 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #490
Why does it matter how many people are currently playing MGS3/Halo 2 vs. how many people are playing WoW? Most single player games would crush multiplayer ones, being played more often isn't any kind of advantage, honestly.


My point is that WoW is on the normal persons mind more then older games since its still played a lot right now.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:46:57 AM | message detail
My point is you have to assume that basically everyone who has played the game on this site will vote for it for it to even be in rallyable range. 35% won't often get even a first place finish, and this is the game's ceiling for votes... realistically you've gotta take that 18% as a pretty unreliable voting base against the big guns. I just don't think it's realistic to expect the game to pull enough raw strength to win matches, even in a four way.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:48:30 AM | message detail
Somehow Arthas was able to pull a 26%. So I don't think its out of the question that it'll be able to put up the percentages needed to advance.
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ZFS | Posted 3/14/2009 12:49:57 AM | message detail
My point is that WoW is on the normal persons mind more then older games since its still played a lot right now.

But it doesn't matter if it is, because most people don't rank WoW as one of their favorite games, and the amount of people currently playing is so low they don't make much of a difference if they do. Just because a game's one your mind more doesn't mean you're gonna vote for it over your favorite game. WoW's gotta rely on rallying, because it's natural strength here has shown to be pretty bad.

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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:50:34 AM | message detail
Sure but you don't have to quite be "currently playing" a game for it to be on your mind. You could've played Halo 2 a few months ago and be like "yeah those was good times" The fact that Halo 2 and MGS3 can manage 1/10 what WoW can on those numbers, with WoW being a game MADE for that stat is pretty condemning for WoW if anything.
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:51:40 AM | message detail
Somehow Arthas was able to pull a 26%

Warcraft 3. I'll stand by this till the death.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 3/14/2009 12:52:51 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #496
Somehow Arthas was able to pull a 26%

Warcraft 3. I'll stand by this till the death.


His second round match using his Warcraft 3 picture, he did much worse.
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General_Zimbad | Posted 3/14/2009 12:54:31 AM | message detail
WoW is for noobs, real men play tetris
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Lopen | Posted 3/14/2009 12:55:04 AM | message detail
Haha. He did much worse because he was against opponents worth their salt. Also, "much worse" was like two or three percent if I recall correctly. (if you correct me with "no, 4" I'll e-smack you)
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General_Zimbad | Posted 3/14/2009 12:55:43 AM | message detail
no u
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