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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 655

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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:58:18 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #049
The Pokemon name is huge, but it's still not enough to beat Metroid, which probably isn't that strong anyway. Metal Gear would've beaten in the Series Contest, and FF would've crushed it. Those are two series in which name brand value won't be enough to propel it to victory.

And that was also 1v1, where Pokemon is typically anti voted. Just look at Xenogears beating it. 4way is a different beast.
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greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:58:27 PM | message detail

From: KotovSyndrome | #046
I wouldn't be surprised if SF4 finished last in the first round. But its not that I'm high on GTA4... its just look at the SFF going on. Galaxy AND Brawl in the same match is essentially a bye for GTA4.

I'm not disagreeing that only one of Brawl/Galaxy places, and that which ever one does is likely taking second. I just think GTAIV is going to bomb just as Niko and Vercetti have made a habit of doing in the last few years.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:59:22 PM | message detail

Niko still beat Kefka.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:59:42 PM | message detail

The site shift has helped Pokemon more than the format.
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greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:59:47 PM | message detail

Wow, Kefka. That's setting the bar high.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:00:48 PM | message detail

From: KotovSyndrome | #046
I wouldn't be surprised if SF4 finished last in the first round.

Uh... Really?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 8:00:53 PM | message detail

Niko still beat Kefka.

Yeah, by barely more than 1%.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 8:01:16 PM | message detail

From: greatone10 | #055
Wow, Kefka. That's setting the bar high.

It still shows he wasn't fodder, which is the point. Plus GTA games do better then their characters.

The site shift has helped Pokemon more than the format.

And you have proof of this? Cuz all the 1v1 matches have had Pokemon bomb, but if you have proof that its not just the format, I'd love to see it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:01:41 PM | message detail

Cuz all the 1v1 matches have had Pokemon bomb, but if you have proof that its not just the format, I'd love to see it.

Did you miss the Series Contest?
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:01:51 PM | message detail

And that was also 1v1, where Pokemon is typically anti voted. Just look at Xenogears beating it. 4way is a different beast.

Pokemon is very different since the days of 2004. If given the chance I wouldn't be surprised if it performances better now.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.

Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:01:54 PM | message detail

And that was also 1v1, where Pokemon is typically anti voted. Just look at Xenogears beating it. 4way is a different beast.

Yeah, in fourways it can barely beat such powerhouses as Ike, Midna, and Isaac!

MGS would have to be horrifically weak (we're talking as weak as in 2004) to even have a chance of losing it to that pack. At this point, even the weakest MGS (MGS4?) is probably not that weak.
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 8:02:22 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #056
Uh... Really?

Only 30% of the site had any interest in SF4. And I see SF4 as the kind of game to easily lose its support to far more popular games like SSBB and GTA4, while PErsona 4 is a very hardcore and dedicated fanbase that won't lose its support easily.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:03:09 PM | message detail

That SFIV poll was horribly worded, just so you know. I couldn't vote in that poll because I was interested in it but hadn't bought it yet. No option for me!
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:03:27 PM | message detail

And you have proof of this? Cuz all the 1v1 matches have had Pokemon bomb, but if you have proof that its not just the format, I'd love to see it.

Pokemon/Star Ocean, Metroid/Pokemon, Samus/Nidoran F
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:03:37 PM | message detail

And if you think fighting game fans are fickle, you don't know fighting game fans!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 8:04:20 PM | message detail

12% still only bought the game.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:05:35 PM | message detail

From: KotovSyndrome | #058
It still shows he wasn't fodder, which is the point. Plus GTA games do better then their characters.

We really don't have that much data on this. Vice City performed well in 04 against Melee, but Vercetti was still a respectable entrant then. Then there is the Top 10, but I doubt the turnout of that was anything like we get for the contest polls. Though if the games still perform like Vice City years ago, you would think Grand Theft Auto series would have soundly beaten Warcraft on any day of the week.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:06:02 PM | message detail

After, what, the first day?

How many of you buy all your games on opening day?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 3/9/2009 8:06:19 PM | message detail

It still shows he wasn't fodder, which is the point. Plus GTA games do better then their characters.

Kefka is one of the fodderiest fodder characters we got. If you lose to him, you are a joke character.

Niko is fodder.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:06:26 PM | message detail

Also, even if we're to assume that Pokemon is a stronger series than Metroid (and it very well could be), how strong are we thinking G/S/C, or even R/B/Y could be? Metroid Prime could only get 55% or so on Half-Life, back when Gordon Freeman couldn't beat Sam Fisher of all folks.

My "faith" in G/S/C there is based on STF, and the fact that FFT has reached utter levels of failure these days. But to take it first in its pack means you've stopped talking about Pokemon respect, and going into the levels of a LOT of MGS disrespect.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 8:08:25 PM | message detail

GTA has been bombing ever since 2005.

2005: CJ jobs to Ness, Vercetti barely beats Chokefka (and that was because a cheater got caught)
2006: GTA loses to Warcraft in the series contest
2007: Vercetti does almot as badly as PaRappa
2008: Niko barely beats Kefka
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:08:27 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #069
Kefka is one of the fodderiest fodder characters we got. If you lose to him, you are a joke character.

Niko is fodder.

Actually, I think Kefka would be a good choice for the "fodder line" these days. That would mean Niko is barely above fodder. Still weary about trusting GTA IV, especially when interest plummeted once everyone played the damn game.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 8:09:18 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #069

It still shows he wasn't fodder, which is the point. Plus GTA games do better then their characters.

Kefka is one of the fodderiest fodder characters we got. If you lose to him, you are a joke character.

Niko is fodder.

... You may have been burned by Kefka in the past, but he isn't fodder. Low midcard is what he is.

My "faith" in G/S/C there is based on STF, and the fact that FFT has reached utter levels of failure these days. But to take it first in its pack means you've stopped talking about Pokemon respect, and going into the levels of a LOT of MGS disrespect.

Even if MGS finishes first (which is possible, but I see it and FFT possibly LFFing due to Playstation games as the reason Pokemon sneaks into first), this is why I think its a given that G/S/C advances. Ramza struggled to beat Laharl and lost to a freaking joke character in WoW. I don't trust anything regarding that games sterngth anymore.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 8:10:10 PM | message detail

Would interest plummet enough to lose to a game that only had 30% interested in it?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 8:11:13 PM | message detail

Also, it's possible that Ramza was on the decline since 2003 and the FFT we saw in 2004 was a semi-declined one.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

ZFS | Posted 3/9/2009 8:12:25 PM | message detail

I wouldn't be surprised if SF4 finished last in the first round.

What is this

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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:12:58 PM | message detail

just albion talking nothing to see here
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:13:19 PM | message detail

Remember Snake/Cloud/Sephiroth/Kirby last contest? You can't even talk about Snake having a bandwagon behind him, because that was virtually eclipsed by Kirby's antics. It shows that there's a point that fanbase splitting stops mattering, because the entities involved are just too strong. It's the same reason why FF7/OoT are pretty much immune to getting upset from anything below them.

As for SF4 and its "underwhelming" first day purchasers:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3146

...don't take that as indication of much.
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greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:14:44 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #074
Would interest plummet enough to lose to a game that only had 30% interested in it?

Personally, I don't think that poll is exactly gospel. However, seeing as SFIV is fresh and recent, it would retain more of it's initial fanbase.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:14:52 PM | message detail

lol Persona 4 having any strength, it should have gone before TWEWY.
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.

ZFS | Posted 3/9/2009 8:15:45 PM | message detail

That's Albion? WoW incoming

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XxSoulxX | Posted 3/9/2009 8:16:55 PM | message detail

... You may have been burned by Kefka in the past, but he isn't fodder. Low midcard is what he is.

I guarantee you that if you put Kefka against anyone with a name people might have heard of, he will lose. I've never been burned by Kefka because I know he will lose every match he's in unless he's fighting the weakest characters in these contests (which is a group he is a part of). He is fodder. There is no doubt about this.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:17:41 PM | message detail

I guarantee you that if you put Kefka against anyone with a name people might have heard of, he will lose.

So no one's heard of Pac-Man then.
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 8:17:43 PM | message detail

I guarantee you that if you put Kefka against anyone with a name people might have heard of, he will lose

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Kefka_vs_Pac-Man_2003
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red sox 777 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:18:15 PM | message detail

Remember Snake/Cloud/Sephiroth/Kirby last contest? You can't even talk about Snake having a bandwagon behind him, because that was virtually eclipsed by Kirby's antics. It shows that there's a point that fanbase splitting stops mattering, because the entities involved are just too strong. It's the same reason why FF7/OoT are pretty much immune to getting upset from anything below them.

I don't understand this. Fanbase splitting did affect that match tremendously; it's why Snake beat Cloud and Sephiroth finished in last, way behind Kirby.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:18:49 PM | message detail

I've never been burned by Kefka

I laughed
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:19:36 PM | message detail

I don't understand this. Fanbase splitting did affect that match tremendously; it's why Snake beat Cloud and Sephiroth finished in last, way behind Kirby.

I'm comparing Cloud and Kirby.
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therealmnm | Posted 3/9/2009 8:21:40 PM | message detail

hey a bracket

...uhh yeah
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XxSoulxX | Posted 3/9/2009 8:22:05 PM | message detail

You know what else happened in 2003?

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Magus_vs_Ganondorf_2003
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Max_Payne_vs_Gordon_Freeman_2003
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mega_Man_vs_Solid_Snake_2003
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Cloud_Strife_vs_Link_2003

If you want to argue contests, backup your points with matches that mean something. Anything before 2004 (and you can argue 2004 itself) is completely unreliable in these new contests.
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28

KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 8:22:29 PM | message detail

Basically the way I look at fodder vs. non fodder is this

If a character has won 2 or more matches in 1v1 format, they're not fodder. Simple as that.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 8:23:30 PM | message detail

Robotnik won two matches that does it I'm starting an Eggman rally

never mind that Sonic Team seems to be at an all time low currently!
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XxSoulxX | Posted 3/9/2009 8:24:58 PM | message detail

If a character can't win in favorable divisions against weak opponents year after year, then that character is fodder.

I've argued this for a few years now, and every single year many people believe that there is no way Kefka can lose in the first round to such and such a character, but he does.

I just want you to remember this year when he disappoints (hah) again, that yes, he is that weak.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 8:24:59 PM | message detail

And I seriously doubt Kefka is NOT fodder. After all, two of those wins came from the Villains Contest, where everyone besides Sephiroth, Bowser and Ganondorf was at best low midcarder.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:27:44 PM | message detail

Kefka couldn't even break 60% on frigging Mithos. MITHOS!
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.

XxSoulxX | Posted 3/9/2009 8:27:58 PM | message detail

Diablo is a low midcarder, and he killed Kefka.
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Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:31:10 PM | message detail

From: KotovSyndrome | #090
Basically the way I look at fodder vs. non fodder is this

If a character has won 2 or more matches in 1v1 format, they're not fodder. Simple as that.

Hell yeah, Pac-Man!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 8:31:10 PM | message detail

Killed isn't the word I would use. Even by Ulti standards, that's stretching it.

And I'm pretty sure he broke 60% on Mithos.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 8:32:50 PM | message detail

arg why did SFIV switch damn you GTAAAA.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:33:50 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #097
Killed isn't the word I would use. Even by Ulti standards, that's stretching it.

And I'm pretty sure he broke 60% on Mithos.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1997
64%, in fact.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 8:35:00 PM | message detail

Kefka was at 75% at one point, but lost 10% of the vote to frigging Mithos. MITHOS!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

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