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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 655

UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/9/2009 1:08:56 PM | message detail
Damn fast purge.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. And remember to ignore any and all trolls, since one-sided trolling always ends fast.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
KamikazePotato | Posted 3/9/2009 1:21:34 PM | message detail
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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 3/9/2009 1:27:07 PM | message detail
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 1:29:44 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Mr3790 | Posted 3/9/2009 1:30:16 PM | message detail
Tagging
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 3/9/2009 6:35:19 PM | message detail
Making sure this stays around >_>
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Diablo 2, Lunar: SSSC
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 6:45:23 PM | message detail
bawww
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jeevesthemole | Posted 3/9/2009 6:47:17 PM | message detail
Rawr.
Big Bob | Posted 3/9/2009 6:58:18 PM | message detail
Persona 4!
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Here's our chance for an all-out attack!
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=big_bob
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:06:42 PM | message detail
tag
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:23:13 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, first 500th post in who knows how long!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:23:26 PM | message detail
Even if GTAIV didn't look too shabby, more people still own the game at this very moment even on GameFAQs.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 3/9/2009 7:23:43 PM | message detail
A+ 500 post !

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nintendogirl1 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:24:36 PM | message detail
CONFIRM/DENY: More people on GameFAQs own GTAIV then have heard of the Persona series?
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Because outside of B8 and a couple polls, I ain't never heard of it.
TheOceIot | Posted 3/9/2009 7:25:49 PM | message detail
Deus Ex.

That is all.
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What's quicker than an Ocelot? A FastFalcon
http://img.imgcake.com/ducks1.jpg
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:29:56 PM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #014
CONFIRM/DENY: More people on GameFAQs own GTAIV then have heard of the Persona series?


Best of 08 PS2:
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 44.53% 21612
"Which game did you most enjoy in first half of 2008? Including Brawl, MGS4:"
Grand Theft Auto IV 22.2% 24611

I'll confirm.

While I'm at it...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3150

Interesting, GTA4 outdid MGS4 in that poll.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:30:58 PM | message detail
Woot I'm finally back.

Now, I must Ask...

Final Fantasy VIII
SoulCalibur
Starcraft
Xenogears


Is there a chance Starcraft doesn't advance?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:31:44 PM | message detail
The chances of StarCraft not advancing are practically zero, but nothing is impossible with this format.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:31:48 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure it at least advances... just look at it.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
TheOceIot | Posted 3/9/2009 7:31:53 PM | message detail
Is there a chance Starcraft doesn't advance?

No.
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What's quicker than an Ocelot? A FastFalcon
http://img.imgcake.com/ducks1.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:31:55 PM | message detail
I doubt Soul Calibur is strong enough to stop StarCraft from placing there. Might even take first.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:33:16 PM | message detail
Very interesting:

Which of this year's big-name games have you most enjoyed? (6/16)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3150
What was the best game of the first half of 2008? (6/30)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3164

GTA4 goes from strongly beating MGS4 to narrowly losing to it. The big factor looks to be "I haven't played a single one of those." Looks like MGS fanboys may give MGS4 more power than people think. Are there still arguments about MGS4 being held back by PS3 ownership?
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:33:30 PM | message detail
At least it has a better chance to advance then when Smash Bros was in that pack.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:34:21 PM | message detail
When MGS4 beat SSBB in the three-way GOTY poll, the argument that the lack of PS3 ownership hurts it was thrown out the window.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:37:03 PM | message detail
Are there still arguments about MGS4 being held back by PS3 ownership?

Yes, because I think Brawl is overrated.


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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:39:16 PM | message detail
Also I just wanna say since I was in purgatory when the bracket was first shown

I TOLD YOU GUYS IT WOULD BE 4WAY!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:40:03 PM | message detail
You know, I just realized why the stats topic was so peaceful and slow when the bracket was released.
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Yesmar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:42:07 PM | message detail
Nonsensical bullcrap. Pikachu was benefiting from fanbase splitting literally every round of that contest.

How was he benefiting from vote splitting? Vivi was almost equal to Tidus, who Pikachu had just beaten! If anything it went from being a nailbiter to a safe win for Pikachu. It's not like Vivi would have just won automatically had there been no LFF, and nothing has ever indicated that other than people's own personal preference.

Why did Pikachu not do any better against Tidus then? If Serge was hurting Tidus, Isaac would have been hurting Pikachu too.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:43:09 PM | message detail
You can say that, but it seems to me that Isaac wasn't.

Why? Because Pikachy DIDN'T do any better against Tidus.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:43:19 PM | message detail
hey ye pikachy
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:46:25 PM | message detail
Also, any contest that no pokemon games get past 2nd round and SSBB gets knocked out in the 2nd round is a good contest in my eyes
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:46:37 PM | message detail
The last time we saw Pikachu he was high fodder at best. Sure it was expected that his strength as risen since 2002/2003, but Tidus was a decent midcarder who at the time didn't have much of a reason to lose to Pikachu the way he did.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:48:26 PM | message detail
In fact I think that's my biggest problem with the bracket. Having the first 2 pokemon games meet in the 2nd round. That disappoints me.
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;_;
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:48:36 PM | message detail
Also, any contest that no pokemon games get past 2nd round and SSBB gets knocked out in the 2nd round is a good contest in my eyes

Do you suspect that Galaxy would LFF Brawl enough to let both GTAIV and CoD4 over it?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:49:22 PM | message detail
Wait, two Pokemon games meeting in the second round?
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charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:50:10 PM | message detail
In fact I think that's my biggest problem with the bracket. Having the first 2 pokemon games meet in the 2nd round. That disappoints me

MGS > FFT > Pokemon G/S

Heck Zelda may even SFF R/B/Y enough to let Perfect Dark through.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:50:38 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #035
Wait, two Pokemon games meeting in the second round?


Pokemon Red/blue and Pokemon Gold/Silver are gonna meet in the 2nd round
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:50:59 PM | message detail
Heck Zelda may even SFF R/B/Y enough to let Perfect Dark through.

Someone's forgetting OoT/GE!
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:51:51 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #034
Also, any contest that no pokemon games get past 2nd round and SSBB gets knocked out in the 2nd round is a good contest in my eyes

Do you suspect that Galaxy would LFF Brawl enough to let both GTAIV and CoD4 over it?


I suspect it to be GTA 4 > Galaxy, with Galaxy being stronger then Brawl and taking the majority of its support.
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greatone10 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:53:48 PM | message detail
You mean SFIV > Galaxy.

I'm done trusting GTA after all the times it's choked on me. Niko was the last straw.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
vs. Super Mario RPG, Goldeneye, Resident Evil 2. Ugh, my top 3 games in the same match.
Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 7:54:18 PM | message detail
FFT is obviously weaker than it's ever been (Ramza on Laharl level is pretty bad on every level), but the Final Fantasy namesake should do a lot for it in this kind of anti-Ninty climate...

...and even then, G/S/C sticks out like a sore thumb. I'd be more worried about G/S/C > MGS than FFT > G/S/C.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 7:54:54 PM | message detail
I still wouldn't take SFIV over Galaxy.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:54:55 PM | message detail
Someone's forgetting OoT/GE

MM will SFF G/S more than PD.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:55:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, Ramza was barely above the fodder line even back in 2003. The ONLY reason FFT even came close to beating MGS was the name brand. MGS and FFT are safe, as far as I'm concerned.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 7:55:47 PM | message detail
And I'm not trusting GTA4 to move on.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:56:01 PM | message detail
I think it'll be G/S/C > MGS, tbh. The pokemon name is huge, and we've seen from Pikachu how it can do in 4ways. I don't have any worry that G/S/C won't finish first.

You mean SFIV > Galaxy.

I'm done trusting GTA after all the times it's choked on me. Niko was the last straw.


I wouldn't be surprised if SF4 finished last in the first round. But its not that I'm high on GTA4... its just look at the SFF going on. Galaxy AND Brawl in the same match is essentially a bye for GTA4.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:56:18 PM | message detail
Well, Majora's Mask is probably going to LFF them all, but just remember which game isn't on the N64 and is stronger anyway!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:56:23 PM | message detail
GTA4 isn't even leaving Round 1!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 7:57:41 PM | message detail
The Pokemon name is huge, but it's still not enough to beat Metroid, which probably isn't that strong anyway. Metal Gear would've beaten in the Series Contest, and FF would've crushed it. Those are two series in which name brand value won't be enough to propel it to victory.
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KotovSyndrome | Posted 3/9/2009 7:57:45 PM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #048
GTA4 isn't even leaving Round 1!


SF4: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3397
GTA4: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3102
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