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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 654

Xuxon | Posted 3/8/2009 8:35:23 PM | message detail
Oh man, that goty poll sucked ass for WoW. Might have to go with MGS3 > Halo 2 after all.

Metroid Prime is probably okay even with Paper Mario there in round 1. And then it might get first in round two with KH/FFX together. It'd lose in round 3 but then FFX and SSBM are more popular, anyway.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/8/2009 8:37:24 PM | message detail
RE4 fell just shy of SM64, FFX, and GTA:SA on that list when RE4 was just on the Gamecube. It has since sold millions on the PS2 and Wii.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2009 8:41:33 PM | message detail
That's the problem with predicting the bracket, one wrong match could cost you multiple more.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/8/2009 8:56:34 PM | message detail
It's WoW. It's Blizzard. It's a spiritual Halo/Starcraft rematch.

MGS3 > WoW for me. I'm not delusional enough to think it'll take a Starcraft-esque run, and it certainly wouldn't beat TP or RE4, but I definitely see it placing in its first two matches. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it's stronger than MGS3 in this format, but I'm not going to go that far.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 3/8/2009 9:01:56 PM | message detail
Remember that SA outdid both Halo 2 and MGS3 in 2004. It's probably weaker now, but I don't see it being far off from the two games.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/8/2009 9:07:05 PM | message detail
I'm honestly going to try not talking much about WoW. Nearly anybody could be right about it, and it's not like its match is even set in stone right now. That said, I think MGS3/Halo 2 could be an interesting match. I wouldn't rule Halo 2 out, though I'll take MGS3 and not feel bad about it.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/8/2009 9:11:53 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #405
Remember that SA outdid both Halo 2 and MGS3 in 2004. It's probably weaker now, but I don't see it being far off from the two games.


MGS rise and GTA fall would lead me to choose MGS3 over SA. And WoW's rallying power and the series contest (Yeah, I know) would also convince me to take WoW to advance.

Though I'm probably overestimating GTA's decline. Still, if there's anyone that can take people's expectations and **** all over them, it's Blizzard.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2009 9:11:55 PM | message detail
It's a spiritual Halo/Starcraft rematch.

I'd call Halo/Diablo II that before I'd call Halo 2/WoW that since Diablo II might be, you know, strong.
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HaRRicH | Posted 3/8/2009 9:26:04 PM | message detail
Plus it's actually Halo instead of its sequel.

Details, people!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/8/2009 9:42:43 PM | message detail
I can't wait for WoW to go on a tear through the bracket and make me look like a genius again. It's obsurd that something so obvious is going to be a dark horse for me.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/8/2009 9:43:26 PM | message detail
Can't wait for the "WHAT? WOW LOST?! I HAD IT WINNING THE CONTEST!" topics!

Also, Snake got 43-45%.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/8/2009 9:43:58 PM | message detail
Again, we should cross that bridge when we come to it.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/8/2009 9:44:28 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #410
I can't wait for WoW to go on a tear through the bracket and make me look like a genius again. It's obsurd that something so obvious is going to be a dark horse for me.


No way it's going to go past TP/RE4, but I do agree that it's funny people are once again underestimating Blizzard, especially in a fourway.

Of course, the real question is whether this match happens on a Tuesday.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/8/2009 10:37:24 PM | message detail
Turtle will never look like a genius.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/8/2009 10:45:29 PM | message detail
If anybody would like to support my topic about double-checking for cheat votes in future polls that are close, please look below:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=48502945

I know it's been a big issue in past years and we've all talked about it before.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:15:45 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #414
Turtle will never look like a genius.


Hasn't he made some interesting calls before that came true?

Yeah, I disagree with a lot of what he thinks, but the guy still has some good ideas from time to time.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 7:26:19 AM | message detail
BT won't get credit if WoW does well, it'll go to Albion.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:52:17 AM | message detail
charmander6000 Talks About the Bracket v1.0: Add/Remove Nominations

A feedback post by SA128 was given to SBAllen on the most popular Add/Remove topics so let’s take a look at some of the possible candidates and how well they would fit the bracket.

Donkey Kong Country 2 > Fallout (100 agrees, 8 Disagrees)- 92 vote difference
It seems kind of obvious that the board would rally behind the only NRT game that missed the bracket. Fallout is probably the second weakest game in the division, only behind Lufia II and is definitely weaker than DKC2. As for bracket position GoldenEye 007 goes from extremely likely to get first to being a lock however second place now becomes debatable. DKC2 has a chance at upsetting SMRPG and even RE2 has a chance at upsetting both games which makes this match all the more interesting. Personally I wouldn’t mind the switch.

Sonic 3 & Knuckles > Sonic 3 Leonhart’s:(52 Agree, 0 Disagree) VerosPlague (38 Agree, 0 Disagree) = 90 vote difference (although there might be a few duplicate votes through the two topics)
Basically it’s a name change that would make Sonic 3 stronger; I don’t see any reason why it should not be changed.

Mortal Kombat (2) > Super Street Fighter 2 Turbo (81 Agree, 4 Disagree)- 77 vote difference
We don’t really need a second SFII game and replacing it with another fighting series is a good idea. The switch does nothing to the overall bracket other than adding another series to the contest.

Rollercoaster Tycoon > Panzer Dragoon Saga (73 agrees, 8 Disagrees)- 65 vote difference
This is an interesting switch though picking on the weakest game that the board doesn’t care about is the way to go. RT won’t add anything to the contest though we don’t really need to see PDS fall flat on its face.

Soul Calibur > Chrono Cross/Super Smash Bros. (60 agrees, Chrono-22 SSB-17, 13 Disagree) = 47 vote difference
Giving two options for replacement is not a good idea if you want to sway SBAllen. While agrees outnumber disagrees not everyone won’t mind if one of the two games is removed, two topics should have been made. For there to be any noticeable difference Soul Calibur needs to retain roughly its 2004 strength and hope that either FFVIII or FFIX/HL flops.

Deus Ex > Panzer Dragoon Saga (51 Agrees, 7 Disagrees) = 46 Vote Difference
Personally I’d rather see Deus Ex over Rollercoaster Tycoon, but since SBAllen will go for the majority this pretty much nullifies Deus Ex’s chances of being in the contest. Not like it would have a chance at making it to round 2.

Fire Emblem (GBA) > Golden Sun (76 agrees, 31 Disagrees)= 45 vote difference
Personally I’d rather have PoR though that would put it in a different division. FE had the unlucky event of facing FFTA in the last contest, but if the replacing happens that would put FE in the face of two Nintendo games. Sure Golden Sun is in the same boat, but at least it’s different enough to avoid the crushing amounts of SFF that Fire Emblem will receive.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 8:52:43 AM | message detail
Turtles in Time > Battletoads (52 agrees, 19 disagree) = 33 vote difference
TiT won’t make any difference if it were in the contest though it does have the possibility of being stronger than BT.

Sonic Adventure 2 > Grand Theft Auto III- (40 Agree, 9 Disagree) = 31 vote difference
While GTAIII is my favourite GTA, having all three of them plus GTAIV is a bit much for this contest. Outside of the Genesis Sonic representation has been non-existence though that could be explained by his 3D games. I guess out of the three GTAs III is probably the weakest.

Devil May Cry > Disagea: Hour of Darkness- (32 agrees, 9 disagree)= 23 vote difference
I would support this change if it received a lot more agrees. I was surprised that the entire DMC series missed the contest again. Sadly 32 agrees isn’t going to cut it for SBAllen.

Duck Tales > Prince of Persia- (25 Agree, 9 Disagree) = 16 vote difference
Not enough votes for SBAllen to care about and even if there were I’m pretty sure that Prince of Persia is stronger than Duck Tales.

Overall
There have been many good nominations and many more terrible nominations. I don’t see SBAllen making too many changes though unless he’s bluffing and totally disregards our nominations I see DKC2 being a near lock of being in the bracket. I also don’t why he wouldn’t do a simple name change and add Sonic 3 & Knuckles. Other possible candidates are MK > SSF2T, RT > PDS and FE > GS.

A comment on Ulti’s topic, while the suggestion was good, heck I was about to do that format in a mock bracket before this contest, but nominations came out earlier than expected and I thought the contest would start soon anyways as I was saying unless Bacon thought about that format before the contest it’s a bit late to implement that format. This isn’t a board contest where the format can be changed with little trouble. This is a site wide contest where SBAllen has to follow both US and probably Canadian laws.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 8:59:06 AM | message detail
hm.. would SAB2/GTAIII be a good match?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 9:01:23 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1586

Pretty interesting poll. I think GTA III just might advance with so many PC/Xbox games going in and it being the only console game there.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 3/9/2009 9:04:53 AM | message detail
GTAIII > SA2 easily, GTAIII is probably barely weaker than SA/VC.

Remember GTAIII came in second in the 2001 Game of the Year. Sadly I don't see III advancing unless Blizzard decides not to rally for its games.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 9:11:49 AM | message detail
Well, I do think the split between those three (or arguably two) just might be enough.

I mean, those console non-xbox gamers gotta vote somewhere!
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 3/9/2009 9:46:29 AM | message detail
BT won't get credit if WoW does well, it'll go to Albion

Why? The last few months he's been playing WoW down, saying it wouldn't be able to take out stronger midcarders like RE4 or TP. If WoW goes all the way its my baby.

And I'm pretty sure I looked pretty damn smart when Pikachu, Ryu and Master Chief destroyed all your brackets in 2007.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 9:51:01 AM | message detail
you weren't the only Ryu supporter and most people actually had Master Chief going that far.

Pikachu was honestly a stroke of luck for having the best conditions ever.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
RPGuy96 | Posted 3/9/2009 9:56:53 AM | message detail
Remember "nobody likes Okami" and "Amaterasu will be a distant fourth to Matt the Mii and Little Mac?" Genius!
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swirIdude | Posted 3/9/2009 10:39:37 AM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 3/9/2009 12:56:53 PM | #426
Remember "nobody likes Okami" and "Amaterasu will be a distant fourth to Matt the Mii and Little Mac?" Genius!


Honestly, who thought this? Matt the Mii was a joke character that should have gotten ZERO serious picks, and while Little Mac had an argument for him, he hasn't been relevant in years.
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paulg235 | Posted 3/9/2009 10:43:39 AM | message detail
Or at least at the time. Now with the upcoming new Punch-Out and a cameo in Brawl, Little Mac would possibly give Ammy a tougher time.
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The Gamer In Me
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 10:47:45 AM | message detail
Does anybody have the sales for Mike Tyson's Punch Out on VC?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 1:48:24 PM | message detail
I had Ryu and Master Chief going far in 2007, too.

By the way, what place did your bracket finish that year?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/9/2009 1:49:02 PM | message detail
Pikachu was honestly a stroke of luck for having the best conditions ever.

Or a stroke of skill because I was the only one who recognized those conditions.

Also Warcraft/GTA in the series contest
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 1:50:13 PM | message detail
I didn't recall you were the only one to make that call.

Also, 43-45% for Snake. Close your account.
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paulg235 | Posted 3/9/2009 1:51:22 PM | message detail
By the way, what place did your bracket finish that year?

Had The result been Link > Cloud, I would've been in the top ten.
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The Gamer In Me
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/9/2009 1:53:39 PM | message detail
I placed 48th in the guru, but would have been much higher if not for the people who lucked out by having Cloud > Link
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 1:54:01 PM | message detail
I was in prize position, just so you know.
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Yesmar | Posted 3/9/2009 2:01:17 PM | message detail
Pikachu was legitimately the second most popular character in his 8-pack. He only got "lucky" once.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 2:06:22 PM | message detail
So you don't think he got lucky to get past Vivi in round 2?
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Yesmar | Posted 3/9/2009 2:14:56 PM | message detail
So you don't think he got lucky to get past Vivi in round 2?

No, since Pikachu was underperforming that round anyway. He got the same rough percentage against Tidus as he had gotten the round before, so clearly something was flukey since Tidus should have been LFFd (Vivi clearly was). If he was "lucky" to beat Vivi than he was lucky to beat Tidus as well (the two FF characters seemed pretty equal that round), which would be silly since he had just beaten him cleanly the round before. .
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 3/9/2009 2:18:40 PM | message detail
BT, if I remember correctly, you only had Pikachu going one round further than most people...but I don't think you had Pikachu > Dante.

Also, close your account.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 3/9/2009 2:20:22 PM | message detail
Tidus and Serge!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 3/9/2009 2:25:21 PM | message detail
Turtle calling Pikachu's run seems legit to me. If he predicted it, it is more his skill at predicting it than luck, no matter how much you hate him.
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HotSkitty | Posted 3/9/2009 2:27:51 PM | message detail
Katamari Damacy should've got into the contest. It's too late now, though.
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Never gonna give you up.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 2:31:09 PM | message detail
Also, close your account.

This gets funnier every time it's mentioned when he tries to brag himself as a genius.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 3/9/2009 2:32:42 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #431
Also Warcraft/GTA in the series contest


Again you weren't the sole person pulling for Warcraft. Just one of the loudest.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HaRRicH | Posted 3/9/2009 2:40:47 PM | message detail
I'll give him credit for getting the points to whatever matches...but I'm not going to give him credit for being smart, logical, reasonable, or worthwhile to listen to while he talked about them. Besides, again, I don't think he entirely predicted Pikachu's run.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
red sox 777 | Posted 3/9/2009 3:24:06 PM | message detail
It's really not remarkable in this topic to get upset picks correct some of the time, along with blunders some of the time. I'm sure most of the people here have had plenty of both by now. Having a lot more great picks than mistakes.....that would be remarkable.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 3/9/2009 3:38:46 PM | message detail
No, since Pikachu was underperforming that round anyway. He got the same rough percentage against Tidus as he had gotten the round before, so clearly something was flukey since Tidus should have been LFFd (Vivi clearly was). If he was "lucky" to beat Vivi than he was lucky to beat Tidus as well (the two FF characters seemed pretty equal that round), which would be silly since he had just beaten him cleanly the round before. .

Nonsensical bullcrap. Pikachu was benefiting from fanbase splitting literally every round of that contest. Next you'll be telling me that his getting 55% on Ike last year was "underperforming" too, and that he's *really* stronger than Ganondorf!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 3/9/2009 3:40:03 PM | message detail
save_us.RAT

(crono > pikachu > l-block > link the stats don't lie)
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 3/9/2009 3:44:36 PM | message detail
Nonsensical bullcrap. Pikachu was benefiting from fanbase splitting literally every round of that contest.

...That is, until it did him in in the quarterfinals.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 3/9/2009 3:47:32 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour
Posted 3/9/2009 5:20:22 PM
message detail
filter | quote
#440 Tidus and Serge!


Pikachu and Isaac have more in common with eachother than Tidus and Serge do.
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