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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 653

Yesmar | Posted 2/28/2009 2:29:25 PM | message detail
There's nothing about the 4-way format that makes it less "predictable" now that we've seen it twice. There's just 5 times as many matches. If there were more 1 v. 1 matches per contest that would make it less predictable as well. How many matches have not come down to some 1 v. 1 situation? 4 or 5?
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 2:32:19 PM | message detail
Apart from the final five or so days, the last 4way contest was one of the least fun we'd ever had. A vast majority of the board would agree with that.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Yesmar | Posted 2/28/2009 2:32:32 PM | message detail
4-ways have proven to be more popular and more integral in bringing in outsiders to the site and clicking on those wonderful ads that keeps GameFAQs afloat, so don't be surprised if your precious Game contest and any future contests continue to be 4-ways or other "bastardized" formats that aren't 1v1.

2008 was definitely not more popular than 2006 in terms of votals and I'm not even sure that 2007 was either.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2009 2:40:43 PM | message detail
2007 was popular because of L-Block
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 2/28/2009 2:42:50 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #154
2007 was popular because of L-Block


A product of the 4-way format.
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http://l33trappacat.blogspot.com/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 2:53:15 PM | message detail
And L-Block only got "huge" during the final week or two of an eight week contest. For the majority of the 2007 Character Battle, we were entertained not because of L-Block, but the novelty of the format. That wore off last year and everyone was pretty tired of the contest until Snake, Crono, and Kirby (and yes, Pikachu) spiced up the last one or two weeks. Nowadays, I think most of us see a 4way contest as something of a "predict the coin flip" novelty. Sure, it can be fun every once in a while, but how many people are gonna have fun predicting the coin flip for eight straight weeks? Forget that.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/28/2009 2:54:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, last contest sucked until the very last rounds (and Pikachu>Block).

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 2:57:00 PM | message detail
There's nothing about the 4-way format that makes it less "predictable" now that we've seen it twice. There's just 5 times as many matches. If there were more 1 v. 1 matches per contest that would make it less predictable as well. How many matches have not come down to some 1 v. 1 situation? 4 or 5?

Did you just say that there were 5 times more matches? Learn to count, please. The 4-way format actually has 1 fewer match.

Apart from the final five or so days, the last 4way contest was one of the least fun we'd ever had. A vast majority of the board would agree with that.

Says you. How many first-round matches last contest were surprising or debatable?

Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Mario > Zelda
L-Block > Ryu
Cube > Tidus
Ryu H > Zero
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Kratos > Jill

Hmm... and I wonder how many first-round matches in the 2006 contest were surprising or debatable?

Kairi > Claire
Luigi > Zero
Vincent > Ganondorf

Like I said, 1 vs 1 proponents need to learn how to count.
voltch | Posted 2/28/2009 2:59:10 PM | message detail
anyone here think that the series contest is the closest thing we have to eing a strength indicator for best game contest?
especially for games that sum up their series,like street fighter II,or mortal kombat II.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:00:54 PM | message detail
Did you just say that there were 5 times more matches? Learn to count, please. The 4-way format actually has 1 fewer match.

A vs B vs C vs D

A vs B
A vs C
A vs D
B vs C
B vs D
C vs D

Learn to count

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:03:13 PM | message detail
Did you just say that there were 5 times more matches? Learn to count, please. The 4-way format actually has 1 fewer match.

I don't think you understand where he's coming from. Let's take the first match as an example:

Cecil vs. Jade vs. Wario vs. Zack

It's one match in the 4way format, but if we were to break it up into 1v1 matches, we'd have:

Cecil vs. Jade
Cecil vs. Wario
Cecil vs. Zack
Jade vs. Wario
Jade vs. Zack
Wario vs. Zack

Hmm... and I wonder how many first-round matches in the 2006 contest were surprising or debatable?

But here's the thing. Not many people cared that 2008 had so many debatable and surprising matches.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 3:04:42 PM | message detail
blah, this topic was much more fun when we were discussing matches instead of getting on soapboxes and attacking contest formats.

rank these -

Super Mario World
Zelda: Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy
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xyzzy
6:10:50
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 3:06:23 PM | message detail
Super Mario World
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy
Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 4

FFVIII/Galaxy is a tough one. Feel good about everything else.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:07:07 PM | message detail
rank these -

Super Mario World
Zelda: Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy


WHICH FORMAT OLD MAN, CLARIFY
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:07:11 PM | message detail
Super Mario World
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy
Metal Gear Solid 4
Zelda: Wind Waker

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 3:07:25 PM | message detail
that's interesting.. where do you put Brawl?
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xyzzy
6:10:50
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 3:08:02 PM | message detail
What do you mean, not many people cared? The average vote totals in the 2008 contest are about 10000 more per match than in the 2006 contest.

I don't think you understand where he's coming from. Let's take the first match as an example:

Cecil vs. Jade vs. Wario vs. Zack

It's one match in the 4way format, but if we were to break it up into 1v1 matches, we'd have:

Cecil vs. Jade
Cecil vs. Wario
Cecil vs. Zack
Jade vs. Wario
Jade vs. Zack
Wario vs. Zack



And how is that anything but a good thing?

I think the problem 1 vs 1 proponents have with the new format is that they cannot rely on their precious X-Stats anymore. That, and being blinded by nostalgia.
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 3:09:39 PM | message detail
I'd probably stick Brawl slightly above Wind Waker.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:11:18 PM | message detail
And how is that anything but a good thing?

Because there are far too many variables for it to be enjoyable. Yes, it's harder. That doesn't necessarily make it better. If you tried to predict the direction a stationary ant would start moving, I bet you'd have a hard time getting consistently good because of the random variation and unpredictability. Doesn't make it fun.

I think the problem 1 vs 1 proponents have with the new format is that they cannot rely on their precious X-Stats anymore. That, and being blinded by nostalgia.

We like to analyze the matches. It's fun. Take the ant example again; how fun would it be to analyze that? Nostalgia has nothing to do with it.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:12:40 PM | message detail
Brawl > Galaxy

The Brawl/Galaxy/FFVIII is tough IMO.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
voltch | Posted 2/28/2009 3:16:59 PM | message detail
Super Mario World
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy
Metal Gear Solid 4
Zelda: Wind Waker
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 3:19:16 PM | message detail
I think FF8 and Wind Waker are a step below the rest, personally. I'd put MGS4 and Galaxy a half-step up and Brawl/Mario World a half step above them. not sure who I'd take one on one there, but probably Brawl.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 3:21:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, you have a lot more respect for MGS4 than I do. I could maybe see Brawl managing to do better in a games contest than it did in those polls, but there's only so far MGS4 can go. I think it loses to a lot of stuff.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:21:19 PM | message detail
Mario World > MGS4 > Galaxy > FF8 > Wind Waker indirectly, but I feel like I'd want to take Wind Waker over Galaxy because ZELDAFEAR
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Oh fine.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 3:22:28 PM | message detail
So I see you are using a subjective definition of fun here. Well, explain how a contest where 29/32 of the matches are predetermined can possibly be "fun". It is the extra variables in the 4 way format that actually makes it exciting, since it actually takes thought to analyze. You actually have to analyze both how characters gain strength year to year as well as how they will be affected by SFF.

With the old format, you just have to plug in the characters in an X-Stat calculator and call it a day. I think it is telling that most of the analysis coming from a 1 vs 1 format is on percentages, not on who will win. How boring is that?
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:22:37 PM | message detail
And I might swap MGS4 and Galaxy. Argh, I hate ranking games by supposed strength, just give me matchups to predict.
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Oh fine.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:23:04 PM | message detail
Super Mario World
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario Galaxy
Zelda: Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 4

SFF makes most of those Nintendo matches debatable (everything but Mario World, which I think beats anything else comfortably), but I'm pretty confident in everything else.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/28/2009 3:23:45 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario World
Super Mario Galaxy
Metal Gear Solid 4
Zelda: Wind Waker


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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 3:26:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, you have a lot more respect for MGS4 than I do. I could maybe see Brawl managing to do better in a games contest than it did in those polls, but there's only so far MGS4 can go. I think it loses to a lot of stuff.

I think it's more respect for Brawl, though MGS4 is stronger than some people want to let it be because of the PS3. this ain't 2006.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:27:31 PM | message detail
So I see you are using a subjective definition of fun here.

Well... yeah? I just want you to see where I'm coming from before you label me as an elitist or something. I love the analysis, debate, and referencing old results for our predictions and reasoning. If you love the unpredictable chaos of a 4way format more, good for you, but I think most people who frequent this board share a different opinion.

With the old format, you just have to plug in the characters in an X-Stat calculator and call it a day.

If that were the case, most of us would end up with perfect brackets for every contest. It really couldn't be further from the truth. I don't know how many contests you've actually seen, but 1v1 matches can still be very unpredictable and enjoyable.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
voltch | Posted 2/28/2009 3:28:31 PM | message detail
rank these weaker possible entrants:
duke nukem 3-D
Doom
Contra
Quake
Silent Hill
Zero Wing
Uncharted

assuming they somehow enter the field.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 3:28:51 PM | message detail
I don't have respect for either one, to be honest. Although I'd probably sooner trust in Brawl to do better than MGS4. PS3 ownership has improved, but it isn't anything great at all, and MGS4 is still limited to the PS3. Maybe if it were on the 360, but as it is now, it's not beating anything that more people have played and with a name.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
charmander6000 | Posted 2/28/2009 3:35:59 PM | message detail
Doom
Silent Hill
Contra
Duke Nukem 3-D
Quake
Uncharted
Zero Wing

SH/Contra could be flipped.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/28/2009 3:36:02 PM | message detail
How does everyone rank the MGS games?

MGS > MGS 4 > MGS 3 > MGS2?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/28/2009 3:36:45 PM | message detail
er, or maybe switch MGS3/MGS4. heh. The game contest would be more unpredictable than any four-way character contest I'll ever see!
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/28/2009 3:37:47 PM | message detail
MGS...

1 > 3 > 2 > 4

I might channel my inner fanboy just enough to switch 1 and 3, but I doubt it.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 3:38:35 PM | message detail
MGS1 > > MGS3 > MGS2 > MGS4 is probably how I'd go. Maybe swap 2/4.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 3:42:32 PM | message detail
Well, what you listed as an advantage of a 1 vs 1 is exactly what I find dull about it. The fact that you can reference old results is the reason why so many people pick the same characters for each match. With the new format, there are so many legitimate ways you can make a competitive bracket that there simply are more risks to take. And more risks mean more debate, and that also means it takes more skill to make a good bracket.

Anyway, I think we both agree that this argument is pointless. For the record, I actually would not mind a 1 vs 1 character contest periodically, as long as enough time has passed to make the X-Stats worthless. And I definitely would support a 1 vs 1 games contest, since like I said, we have no reliable X-Stats.
voltch | Posted 2/28/2009 3:42:42 PM | message detail
1>3>2>4

3,makes me wonder what a ps3 graphics young snake only MGS game could achieve,we only got a small segment of playable good graphics snake in 2 and 4 was old decrepit snake.

i hope they remake the originals with PS3 graphics and overhaul the story.
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Pearl FC:3953 0978 7217
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 3:55:44 PM | message detail
Back on topic, is there any reason why everyone thinks MGS3 will be so strong? It sold less than half that of MGS and MGS2, and it does not have the hype that a game still in production like MGS4 would.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/28/2009 4:00:07 PM | message detail
Well, there's still lots of love for it more so than MGS2.

I suppose I'd still take MGS3 in a close one.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/28/2009 4:11:14 PM | message detail
Back on topic, is there any reason why everyone thinks MGS3 will be so strong? It sold less than half that of MGS and MGS2

MGS sold less than MGS2 and would *kill* MGS2, directly and indirectly.

MGS3's reception and playership on this site is a lot higher than among the general public's. The way that old man Big Boss dismantled Raiden last year is about as much proof as I could think of needing to see that MGS3 is loved by the core fanbase more than MGS2.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MetricTrout | Posted 2/28/2009 4:18:20 PM | message detail
Wiki has both MGS and MGS2 selling 7 million. MGS3 sold 3.7 million, MGS4 sold 3 million.

Granted, Big Boss > Raiden, but are characters = games? I was under the impression that good proportion of the MGS2 fanbase was not a fan of Raiden. Something about him being whiny or along these lines.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/28/2009 4:19:23 PM | message detail
Bracket arrangement has every bit as much to do with unpredictability as the format. 2004, 2006, AND 2008 both had poor bracket arrangement. That's part of the reason they were boring.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 4:23:49 PM | message detail
There's a certain point where sales just don't matter anymore. You're kinda there when you're comparing 4 million and 7 million. But MGS3 gets a lot of love, where MGS2 tends to split people who think it's great and those who think it's not very good. I

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 4:25:37 PM | message detail
MGS2 and 3 seem like FF8 and FF9 to me.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/28/2009 4:27:29 PM | message detail
Uh...which is the FF8 and which is the FF9?

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
trannyscience | Posted 2/28/2009 4:28:02 PM | message detail
MGS2 and MGS3, of course. better sales, near the end of a console's life, love/hate relationship.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/28/2009 4:33:34 PM | message detail
The only difference is that MGS3 probably beats MGS2!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
ZFS | Posted 2/28/2009 4:36:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's pretty dead on.

FFIX and MGS3 are the better games, too!

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!