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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 652

red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:16:49 PM | message detail
This is how I see it:

Mario beat Crono with a little under 54% in 2005.

Mario now is almost undoubtedly weaker than in 2005. With CTDS, Crono should be stronger than in 2005. There is very little room for both of those to be true, and for Mario/Crono not to at least be a close match this year. If I were making a Crono fanboy pick (don't worry, I probably will do so again this year- it would involve something like Crono > Snake, or at least Samus).
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:18:39 PM | message detail
Crono would be lucky to be back at his 2005 level.
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 7:21:38 PM | message detail
Mario would have rocked Crono a lot worse than 54% had they faced each other since 05. And Crono's dropped off from that level since then, too. Even Crono this year had to use some shenanigans to hold off Vincent. If you're gonna go that route, how about Mario vs. Vincent? Can't expect Crono to clear Mario and then Vincent not make a match of it.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/25/2009 7:24:22 PM | message detail
Samus beat Vincent with room to spare despite Ganondorf being in the poll.

GANOMDORF, MAN
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:25:17 PM | message detail
Lucky to be back at his 2005 level? Exactly how much weaker do you think 2008 Crono is than 2005 Crono? And really, 2008 Mario looked around the level of 2005 Crono to me, granted with 4-ways. But the thing is all the Mario characters collapsed around him- Yoshi, Luigi, and Bowser all had horrible years, which makes it seem rather unlikely that Mario just suffered from SFF, especially when he had no problems with Link SFF last year. So Crono could be around the level of 2005 Crono and he might possibly still win that match this year, especially if Nintendo has another bad year.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:26:26 PM | message detail
Exactly how much weaker do you think 2008 Crono is than 2005 Crono?

Well, Vincent would suggest that 2008 Crono gets about 45% on 2005 Crono. That's rather significant.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/25/2009 7:28:30 PM | message detail
I'm starting to wonder how biased I'd be if character battles were opened up to all fictional characters. I mean... Ariel over Link doesn't sound completely out there...
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:28:50 PM | message detail
If Vincent and Crono had a one on one rematch today I'd probably put it at around a 51/49 win for Crono. Maybe closer.

That's a pretty significant drop off.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:31:54 PM | message detail
Since you asked, I do think Vincent could put up a surprisingly good showing on Mario these days. Crono wasn't at Mario's level last year and needs CTDS to make up the gap, so Vincent wouldn't challenge Mario for the win, but I think he'd break 45% and could get as high as 47%.

And yes, Mario would have beaten Crono much worse than 54-46 in 2007- when Mario beat Crono's percentage on Link/Vincent/Zero while facing Link/Sephiroth/Vincent. Mario would have gotten...eh, let's go with 58% that year. But CT seems to have recovered a bit in 2008, while Nintendo and Mario characters most of all fell off pretty sharply. So already last year, the margin would have been below 54-46 I think- and CTDS can make up the rest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 7:33:20 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #407
I'm starting to wonder how biased I'd be if character battles were opened up to all fictional characters. I mean... Ariel over Link doesn't sound completely out there...


xD

Only characters I could see challenging Link are maybe Spiderman, Goku and Darth Vader
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/25/2009 7:35:16 PM | message detail
But Samus took out Vinny pretty easily despite you-know-who in the poll.

GANDOMORF
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/25/2009 7:35:17 PM | message detail
four ways give us some crazy percentages. I just say take them with a grain of salt and use a bit of common sense.

Do I see Crono returning to 2005 levels? I highly doubt it. CT:DS isn't as much of a success as some of you guys put it. In fact the only reason I'd put him significantly over 2005 levels would be because of some Brawl appearance.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 7:36:14 PM | message detail
In fact the only reason I'd put him significantly over 2005 levels would be because of some Brawl appearance.

Or a new Chrono game with Crono as the main character.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/25/2009 7:36:29 PM | message detail
Batman vs. Tanner would be epic.

I always bring up this idea every few months, and every few months it's shot down by the BITTERNESS festering within the stats topic.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:36:38 PM | message detail
Well, Vincent would suggest that 2008 Crono gets about 45% on 2005 Crono. That's rather significant.

Well, that assumes Vincent hasn't boosted at all. Seems rather unlikely to me, comparing Vincent's 2005 run with his performances since:

54% on Dante
50.5% on Squall

vs.

52% on Ganondorf (2006)
48% on Sonic (2006)
56% (or the equivalent) on Zelda (2007)
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:38:49 PM | message detail
Vincent wouldn't do that much better on Squall today. The Dante match is a little weird, but I don't think Vincent looks a ton stronger than he did in '05.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/25/2009 7:38:53 PM | message detail
To sort of play Devil's Advocate for a second, though... Vincent has almost certainly increased since 2005, thanks to him getting a starring role in his very own game. Why do you think the successful Vincent > Crono 2k7 upset had so much hype in the first place, or why Vincent/Ganondorf was the most debated match of 2k6 despite many believing Ganondorf to be stronger than Snake at the time? It's also why most don't have a problem giving him the nod in a rematch with Squall, despite how close their original match was. To this end, losing narrowly to or barely beating Vincent comes off as pretty darn good to me, especially if we don't think Mario's at his 2k5 levels.

...now, despite this, Vincent would have had to have a MAJOR boost to get up to Crono 2k5's standard, much more than DoC would've warranted, and that's when the game was at its peak. Not only that, but Mario has a lot of room to fall before he starts getting discussed in that particular tier again - essentially, given how Samus performed on Vincent with Ganondorf in the match, you'd have to believe that Mario and Samus are as far apart now as their x-stats implied in 2k4.

In short... if Mario's fallen far enough to lose to Crono, you may as well start hyping the Samus > Mario train again.
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 7:39:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, can't say I agree with all that. You're just kinda taking the most extreme cases for both sides - Mario dropping off a lot, Crono rising as far as he can go. It's more than likely that Mario took a dive this year, as most of the Nintendo guys did, but he'd recover from getting away from all the SFF and going back to a normal 1v1 bracket. If anything, I'd expect a Mario vs. Crono match to go about 54-46 in Mario's favor again. A clear drop, but nothing silly. I'd love to see Crono win the match, but you're gonna have to hope for another big Nintendo drop off, because CTDS isn't gonna do it.

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red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:40:28 PM | message detail
No, I think Vincent/Squall is a toss-up today. But Squall's had KH2 since 2005, so if Vincent has kept up with him, I'd think that he boosted also.
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 2/25/2009 11:43:24 PM | message detail
Ariel>Link with ease. TJF adds a lot too.
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voltch | Posted 2/26/2009 6:11:32 AM | message detail
btw,had dissidia been a console game rather than handheld,anyone here think the potential boost would have been bigger than what we currently expect?

actually what are we even expecting dissidia to do?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/26/2009 6:21:18 AM | message detail
enough to keep Square characters from dropping at least.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2009 8:02:38 AM | message detail
Dissidia should help a little bit, but not much.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/26/2009 9:05:47 AM | message detail
If Vincent gets ~48% on Sonic in 2006 when DoC:FF7 was fresh, Vincent's not beating Mario now. Say what you will about Mario-n-gang not impressing or whatever, but -- despite Sonic having one of his best years -- he still didn't get 45% against the newly-hyped Solid Snake, who lost to Samus with ~47%, who was beaten 60-40 the year before by Mario.

Of course you can't assume Mario smashes Vincent like that statistically, but the point is that Mario's got space between him and Vincent. Don't let last year's SFF fool you. Samus beat Vincent despite Ganondorf (and would have probably still won if Falco was also in the match). Zack Fair looks to be at Aeris's level, and Mario still beat him despite Link and MMX. Mario-despite-Link did far better than Vincent-despite-Sephiroth in 2007. Crono didn't do THAT well against Mario last year, either -- take Link out of Link/Mario/Samus/Crono, and I wonder how close of a match that becomes between Mario and Crono...

...CTDS and anti-Wii sentiment won't matter in a rematch between Mario/Crono.
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Yesmar | Posted 2/26/2009 9:41:46 AM | message detail
I really don't think Vincent was at 2005-2007 levels last year. Neither of his performances in the first two rounds pointed towards that. He probably hasn't fallen that much, but he's not where he once was, and neither was Crono last year for that matter.
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ZFS | Posted 2/26/2009 10:22:13 AM | message detail
Dissidia should give some Square characters good boosts. The ones like Cloud and Sephiroth probably won't even budge from having Dissidia, since it's just one of many times they've made appearances over the years, although this is the first time they've both playable in something since FFVII. Going down, Squall might get a little something, but it probably wouldn't even be notable.

When you get down to characters like Zidane (cb8 champion watch out !!), Kefka, Terra, and Cecil, though, that's probably where Dissidia will do the most, kinda like how Brawl made the biggest difference for the lower end Nintendo guys. A lot of them haven't been in anything big since their original games, and haven't gotten the whole new Square treatment, so they should get some nice boosts. Zidane won't turn into a near elite or anything, but he'll probably be a whole tier or so above where he's hanging out now. Same for the others.

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red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2009 11:25:49 AM | message detail
If Vincent gets ~48% on Sonic in 2006 when DoC:FF7 was fresh, Vincent's not beating Mario now. Say what you will about Mario-n-gang not impressing or whatever, but -- despite Sonic having one of his best years -- he still didn't get 45% against the newly-hyped Solid Snake, who lost to Samus with ~47%, who was beaten 60-40 the year before by Mario.

And yet Mario was only projected to get 55% on Sonic in 2005. Are you trying to say 2005 Sonic >>> 2006 Sonic? Saying Mario has to be at Samus's level now makes no more sense than saying we should assume Mario is only worth 44% on her indirectly, as they 2004 stats say. There's plenty of room for Mario to be weaker than her indirectly now. And no one said Vincent is going to beat Mario now- I gave him 45-47%, no more. That's entirely reasonable considering that in 2005, he was projected to get 41% or so, and Vincent should be stronger than in 2005 now and Mario a good deal weaker. Of course, Vincent doesn't have to be at Mario's level for Crono to be now, after CTDS.

Of course you can't assume Mario smashes Vincent like that statistically, but the point is that Mario's got space between him and Vincent. Don't let last year's SFF fool you. Samus beat Vincent despite Ganondorf (and would have probably still won if Falco was also in the match). Zack Fair looks to be at Aeris's level, and Mario still beat him despite Link and MMX. Mario-despite-Link did far better than Vincent-despite-Sephiroth in 2007. Crono didn't do THAT well against Mario last year, either -- take Link out of Link/Mario/Samus/Crono, and I wonder how close of a match that becomes between Mario and Crono...

Again, Mario != Samus. Taking Link out of that match would have made it quite interesting between Mario and Crono, I think. Take out Link and Samus and Mario wins of course- but I doubt he wins by any more than he did in 2005.

If you want the see the difference between Mario 2007 and 2008, consider this: how would Link/Mario/Samus/Crono have gone in 2007? The fact that Mario pulled a higher percentage, with Link in the poll, against a stronger pack (Link/Sephiroth/Vincent) than Crono got against Link/Vincent/Zero, suggests that Mario could have beaten Crono without trouble even with Link in the poll, and if the SFF worked in his favor, maybe even with Samus there too. I don't think anyone thinks taking Samus out of the 2008 poll and keeping Link would have gotten Mario close to Crono.

...CTDS and anti-Wii sentiment won't matter in a rematch between Mario/Crono.

Why? The Deboost has already happened. And why wouldn't CTDS give Crono a boost? Both clearly matter, unless you're saying they won't be enough, which is possible.

I really don't think Vincent was at 2005-2007 levels last year. Neither of his performances in the first two rounds pointed towards that. He probably hasn't fallen that much, but he's not where he once was, and neither was Crono last year for that matter.

A fair point- FFVII did look rather lukewarm all around last year. I don't think anyone was saying that 2008 Crono = 2005 Crono either....the idea was that after CTDS, he'd be back above his 2005 levels.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 2/26/2009 11:47:17 AM | message detail
CTDS's most important aspect contest-wise isn't boosting Crono, but more stopping his downward spiral. He did boost a bit, but more importantly he's relevant again instead of just another fading classic. That means he should continue to be top-tier material for at least a couple more years. That doesn't mean he's gonna be strong enough to threaten Mario or Samus, but it should be enough to keep him out of reach of the likes of Vincent, Squall, and Auron. I think MM9 helps Mega Man similarly, in that while it won't boost him, it'll stop his decline due to being relevant again and should likewise keep him a notch above everyone else, though not as effectively due to being a download and all.

Sonic however is never going to have a good game again and will continue to sink until he's getting 60-40'd by the likes of Luigi. Shadow will end up losing to Cecil, Knuckles will lose to Kratos Aurion, and Tails will get doubled by Guybrush Threepwood.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2009 12:14:38 PM | message detail
As much as I like to denigrate Sonic, it's going to be a very, very, long time before he gets 60-40'd by Luigi on this site, if ever. I seriously doubt Mario could 60-40 him now 1v1(Mario/Shadow suggests Sonic won't get SFF'd).
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/26/2009 1:39:52 PM | message detail
And why wouldn't CTDS give Crono a boost? Both clearly matter, unless you're saying they won't be enough, which is possible.

Because the majority of people that bought CTDS were most likely fans of the game to begin with.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2009 1:52:23 PM | message detail
That is true of almost any non-original game, so it doesn't mean much. Certainly not that we shouldn't expect a boost from CTDS at all. And given the low exposure of CT previously for a game of its strength, it's fairly easy for CTDS to reach out to a new audience. And even with no new audience exposure at all, which is ridiculous, you'd still expect a boost from people who haven't played CT in years replaying it.
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/26/2009 1:56:48 PM | message detail
And I doubt that Knux would lose to Kratos Aurion, or that Tails would lose to Guybrush Threepwood for that matter (Kratos couldn't even beat an SFF'd Diddy Kong, and Guybrush sucks REALLY bad. Plus, Tails has managed to win a match, which is more than what Guybrush can say; Guybrush got doubled by Ryo Hazuki, for Pete's sake!).
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ZFS | Posted 2/26/2009 2:01:32 PM | message detail
By the time we have another character battle, we'll be looking at a year since CTDS came out. Yeah, boosts don't always rely on being recent, but the 'replay' factor isn't going to be that important a year from now. Crono and co. will get a boost from it, but the kind of boost you're expecting isn't going to happen. CTDS came and went, it's not like it was some big thing that everyone was into. Emulation and the PS1 version of the game have exposed the bulk of new people to the game already, it's not something this site is largely unfamiliar with at all.

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red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2009 2:06:05 PM | message detail
I'm hardly expecting a huge boost, although it is possible based on past boosts (Kingdom Hearts, the SSBB Trailer). 3-5% is about what I'm expecting, and that's enough to put him on Mario's level these days.
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ZFS | Posted 2/26/2009 2:10:37 PM | message detail
1-2% is the most likely thing to happen, I think. CTDS isn't reaching this 'whole new audience' at 200k sold, man. You'd have a really good case for what you're saying if it were up there toward a million.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/26/2009 2:14:31 PM | message detail
How on earth is 3-5% (presumably on BL) not a huge boost?

The game didn't sell particularly well and did pretty poorly in the GotY poll. At some point you've got to just give it up.
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voltch | Posted 2/26/2009 2:16:32 PM | message detail
just give us chrono break damnit,that would send crono's stock skyhigh if he was the protagonist,and put it on wii,no just put it on a console where his night would be even stronger but he keeps the crap day vote
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/26/2009 2:31:22 PM | message detail
I meant 3-5% on Crono's previous value, meaning he'd get 53-55% on his 2008 self this year. But no, as far as boosts go, that's a respectable, but not huge, boost. By comparison, a boost of 1% is small enough that it is more or less indistinguishable from random variation.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/26/2009 3:06:12 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs Super Mario RPG?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/26/2009 3:22:57 PM | message detail
Mario RPG, and probably with ease.
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Mr3790 | Posted 2/26/2009 3:30:58 PM | message detail
With Sonic's recent showings, Mario RPG quite easily.

Also, random 3790 cameo apperence here.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 2/26/2009 3:43:10 PM | message detail
This contest isn't happening
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/26/2009 3:50:22 PM | message detail
SMRPG. I'm not big on SMW SFF'ing Sonic 2 in 2004, but if it did then SMRPG will also have the Mario-name backing it (though it's not a platformer). I also think SMRPG was SFF'd a little by CT, and being re-released on the VC recently can't hurt (though I think Sonic 2 is on the VC too, but SMRPG was requested big-time to be downloadable on that service). It doesn't hurt that SMRPG had great support on the Top 100 List, too; look at the games it's in the mix with:

22 - Super Mario Bros.
23 - Super Mario World
24 - Super Metroid
26 - Super Mario RPG
28 - Pokemon Red
29 - Metroid Prime
30 - Legend of Zelda
...
38 - Sonic 2

Say what you wish about the list, but SMRPG outdid a GotY (two if you count LoZ:WW, though Sonic 2 beat it too), Nintendo's best-selling RPG and strongest handheld game, and is hot on the heels of two major SMB-games...and all of that is within the Nintendo-crowd. I know stuff like Earthbound > Sonic 2 should be ignored and SMRPG > Sonic 2 doesn't mean a lot, but SMRPG's performance within its crowd was very nice. It's got a good chance of being the strongest Mario spin-off to date; only MK64 could compete, and (though I think MK64 > SMK) SMK was #61 and failed to impress in last year's VC-SNES poll.

Unfortunately, most information we could go off of is at least three years old. That said, I still don't see Sonic 2 competing with SMRPG since there's no reason for such a change between them. SMRPG very cleanly beat SF2 in one of the most controversial results to date (SF2 LOST?!?!?!?!?) and -- like Geno in all of his matches -- faced an opponent with potential to SFF. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. SMRPG could do quite well for itself...Sonic 2 is out of its league against it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/26/2009 4:10:23 PM | message detail
ZFS
Posted 2/25/2009 6:48:49 PM
message detail
filter | quote
#383 Nah. I'd give him more than that against Mega Man and Sonic, something like 53 or 54%. I wouldn't have to think about those matches.


So Crono is now equal to 2006 Snake?

And why is everyone so adament that Snake would still lose to Samus/Mario? I think he has a great shot at those too, and perhaps Sephiroth if he has dropped as much as the last 3 contests imply. Hell, I'd consider Mario or Samus over Sephiroth judging by the last 3 years.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2009 4:12:14 PM | message detail
So Crono is now equal to 2006 Snake?

lolwut
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/26/2009 4:15:22 PM | message detail
54% on Sonic/MM, that's what Snake got in 2006
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2009 4:17:27 PM | message detail
55, actually.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/26/2009 4:18:56 PM | message detail
My bad
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/26/2009 4:19:13 PM | message detail
Plus Sonic and Mega Man have both dropped since 2006, so putting Crono at 53% on them hardly puts him at '06 levels.

Not that I think Crono would do that well, but still.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/26/2009 4:20:31 PM | message detail
As for the discussion, Crono is probably worth 52% on Mega, 54% on Sonic (givin his downward spiral) if CT:DS did anything for him. I'd much rather see Squall/Sonic.
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