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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 652

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/24/2009 7:56:09 PM | message detail
Pull the Trigger, I Dare You! Division

Sonic
Tifa

Auron
Sora

Vincent
Squall

Mega Man
Kirby


Sonic > Tifa

I think people are taking that Samus match a little too far

Auron > Sora

This may have been debateable in 2006, but until KH3 comes out, Auron won't be losing to Sora

Squall > Vincent

This is a coinflip IMO. I picked Squall because he impressed me more the last 2 years than Vincent did

Mega Man > Kirby

Again, people are taking Kirby's run WAY too far if they think he has a chance here

Sonic > Auron

Here's a really close one, but I really feel that Sandbag is the only reason Auron won last year and in a straight up match, Sonic would probably still win. If this was Squall or Vincent though, I'd take the upset without question.

Mega Man > Squall

Will probably be close again, but I can't see Mega Man falling that far, especially after MM9.

Mega Man > Sonic

Easy peasy

Mega Man > Squall > Vincent > Sonic > Auron > Tifa > Sora > Kirby
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/24/2009 8:11:56 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #351
This may have been debateable in 2006, but until KH3 comes out, Auron won't be losing to Sora


Why would it have been debatable in 2006? It really wouldn't have.

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #351
Will probably be close again, but I can't see Mega Man falling that far, especially after MM9.


I certainly can't see Mega Man returning to 2004 again either.


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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/24/2009 8:13:55 PM | message detail
Sora and Auron were pretty close in the 2006 stats. Not saying for sure I'd take the upset, but it was certainly possible. Sora didn't look too shabby against Squall, I think that right after KH2 was his strongest time yet.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/24/2009 8:20:10 PM | message detail
Sora is overrated in 2006, though I can see why you would think he wasn't because you're Mega Man happy.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
HaRRicH | Posted 2/24/2009 9:00:56 PM | message detail
Black Turtle! ...close your account.



This may have been debateable in 2006, but until KH3 comes out, Auron won't be losing to Sora

Without KH3, Sora has hung tough with Squall three out of four times in the past two years. Though I'm a fan of Auron > Squall, you'd be silly to count Sora out like that, especially considering Squall's prominence in the KH-series.


Will probably be close again, but I can't see Mega Man falling that far, especially after MM9.

You thought MM9 would help MM beat Solid last year when MM9 was new, and that's ignoring how the overall-GotY went two months ago. It's fair to say Squall is no Solid (and we have the matches to prove it!), but let's not act like MM9 is a game-changer anymore.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/24/2009 9:07:44 PM | message detail
To be fair, MM looked pretty good against Snake considering that he had Zero weighing him down and how strong Solid looked this year. 43% on Cloud puts Snake above the level of anyone besides Clinkeroth, 2002 notwithstanding.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/24/2009 9:30:59 PM | message detail
But how much of that are you really willing to attribute to Zero? When the chips are down, the fanbase tends to rally to the character in need, and Mega Man fit that category to a T. I'd focus less on the percentages in that match (SFF *and* a joke character) and more on the fact that he ended up dropping the ball to a second-tier joke character. C'mon, SFFed or not Mega Man couldn't do what Pikachu did <_<
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/24/2009 9:34:50 PM | message detail
And c'mon people, how long is it going to take for Vincent/Squall/Auron/Tifa their just favorite status against Sonic? I spent goodness-knows-how-long defending his performances last year and even I know it's time to give it up. There's only so much the format can mask.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/24/2009 9:36:40 PM | message detail
who you calling a second-tier joke character
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/24/2009 9:38:02 PM | message detail
Or we can say that Pikachu is just that strong, implying Crono is much stronger than we all thought!

As for Sonic, until the Noble Nine actually loses a match 1v1, I have the feeling they will always be held the favorite by this board in any match against a non-noble character. The curse of the Noble Nine Breakers is strong (Magus, Zero, Bowser, Ganondorf).
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Hobbes: What's the point of attaching a number to everything you do?
Calvin: If your numbers go up, it means you're having more fun.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/24/2009 9:49:07 PM | message detail
And c'mon people, how long is it going to take for Vincent/Squall/Auron/Tifa their just favorite status against Sonic?

I'd consider the three guys favorites, sure, but not Tifa. She's not quite at their level (she actually seems like a pretty unique case with her wacko trends), and Sonic's beaten her comfortably before. I still brought up how tantalizing it was last year and would pounce all over the upset today, but it's still an upset. It's the type of pick the Stats Topic would need to aggrandize Mario Kart/Mega Man style for it to gain any real traction with the board.

WHICH MEANS WE HAVE WORK TO DO CMON GUYZ
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Gaddswell | Posted 2/24/2009 9:50:24 PM | message detail
Pull the Trigger, I Dare You! Division

Tifa > Sonic
Yeah, I'll pull the trigger here!

Auron > Sora
Yup

Squall > Vincent
It's really too bad Squall got wasted against Snake / Block in 2k7 and with Cloud in 2k8.

Mega Man > Kirby
Kirbs definitely isn't that high yet.

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Auron > Tifa
FF7 or not, Auron just feels more popular between the two to me.

Squall > Mega Man
Pulling this trigger too!

Squall > Auron
I think Squall's top of the square near-elites now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/25/2009 5:01:37 AM | message detail
Without KH3, Sora has hung tough with Squall three out of four times in the past two years. Though I'm a fan of Auron > Squall, you'd be silly to count Sora out like that, especially considering Squall's prominence in the KH-series.

I doubt it looks as good one-on-one. Until he does well one-on-one against a major Square character, I'm going to have my doubts about Sora.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 2/25/2009 11:33:21 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who'd go Auron > Sonic > Tifa? Sonic's gone downhill, but I really don't think Tifa's all that much a powerhouse. I'd easily pick Auron/Vincent/Squall/Guybrush Threepwood over Sonic, though.
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YrLordAndSavior | Posted 2/25/2009 11:42:35 AM | message detail
I'd probably go Auron > Sonic > Tifa

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paulg235 | Posted 2/25/2009 11:45:51 AM | message detail
but I really don't think Tifa's all that much a powerhouse.
This is the same Tifa that was only a couple thousand votes away from defeating Zero Suit Samus.

Trust me, if Tifa has the same seed as last year and the 1 seed for her divsion was Master Cheif, she would likely end up in the quater finals unless Vincent or Crono were in the same division. If Kirby can beat Sonic and Auron can score 5% more than Sonic, Tifa can easily do the same.

Now thinking back to the kirby upset, does anyone think rSFF could've done something there? I mean, most of Sonic's voters are Nintendo fans, and perhaps they would drop Sonic the moment a Nintendo character appears on the scene.

That said, I wonder how Mario Vs Sonic would go down (1V1 or four-way)? Something tells me Mario would easily double Sonic.
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The Gamer In Me
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 2/25/2009 12:41:37 PM | message detail
With all this talk about charcters for some odd reason (everyone giving up hopes on the BGE?), where does Crono fall now with CT:DS? Back above Mega Man? Capable of giving Samus a run?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/25/2009 12:51:51 PM | message detail
I doubt CT:DS did anything significant. I say he's more than likely in the same area we always expect him.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 2/25/2009 1:09:42 PM | message detail
How are the european sales of CTDS?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/25/2009 1:26:22 PM | message detail
Well, I don't think it came out there yet...
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
voltch | Posted 2/25/2009 1:26:32 PM | message detail
bad
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Denzokuken | Posted 2/25/2009 1:48:29 PM | message detail
it is out here, was released early feb.

this is a uk games chart released 17 feb (a little late but i could not find anything closer):

http://kotaku.com/5154821/british-sales-charts

no Chrono Trigger to be seen in the top 40
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/25/2009 2:03:48 PM | message detail
Black Turtle...! You really need to stop being so Mega Man-happy. Mega Man 9 didn't help him. At all. If it did anything, Mega Man would've done better than he did last contest. Think about it. He struggled to double a Devil May Cry character who likely isn't that much stronger than Vergil, he allowed Tidus - the same Tidus he punked back in 2004, mind you - to improve on him from 2004, and he dropped the ball against a joke character.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 2:28:03 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #373
Black Turtle...! You really need to stop being so Mega Man-happy. Mega Man 9 didn't help him. At all. If it did anything, Mega Man would've done better than he did last contest. Think about it. He struggled to double a Devil May Cry character who likely isn't that much stronger than Vergil, he allowed Tidus - the same Tidus he punked back in 2004, mind you - to improve on him from 2004, and he dropped the ball against a joke character.


This is Black Turtle, hes as much of a troll if not more then me.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/25/2009 3:15:33 PM | message detail
It's hard to fault him for WCC, but the other things...yeah, MM did pretty poorly on. The best thing he got to take away from last year was having a reason to lose to Solid like he did and destroying Zero in comparison to how he did in 2k4.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/25/2009 3:17:33 PM | message detail
As a staunch MM fan, I take solace in the fact that he would still beat Sonic.

Not much else to take solace in.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 3:28:47 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #376
As a staunch MM fan, I take solace in the fact that he would still beat Sonic.

Not much else to take solace in.


I'd love to see a Crono match against Sonic and or Mega Man these days just to see how he compares to them after CTDS
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/25/2009 3:29:53 PM | message detail
i'd take Sonic > Mega Man and not look back.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/25/2009 3:35:58 PM | message detail
And you'd be hurt from doing so.

MM has looked pathetic lately, but Sonic has looked just plain godawful, and he has even more reason to drop. He can still win, but MM has the definite advantage.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 3:37:08 PM | message detail
CTDS has probably done enough for Crono to keep him a good tier above Mega Man/Sonic, but I don't think I'd give him much more than that.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/25/2009 3:44:29 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say a "good" tier. He'd probably beat them in 51-49ish fashion, but that's probably all I'd give him. He's still a choker though, so who knows.
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voltch | Posted 2/25/2009 3:46:49 PM | message detail
in europe professor layton is the popular thing for DS now,and why or why are the girls aloud in that ad,it's as bad as the wrights promoting wii sport and the redknapps with brawl.
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 3:48:49 PM | message detail
Nah. I'd give him more than that against Mega Man and Sonic, something like 53 or 54%. I wouldn't have to think about those matches.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 4:08:34 PM | message detail
He'd have beaten them last year, before CTDS, so it should be a comfortable win now. I still like Crono > Mario, maybe Crono > Samus if this year is even worse for Nintendo than last. Don't think CTDS sold well enough for me to take Crono > Snake (not like anyone but me here was even considering that anyway).
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Gaddswell | Posted 2/25/2009 4:09:07 PM | message detail

From: voltch | #382
in europe professor layton is the popular thing for DS now,and why or why are the girls aloud in that ad,it's as bad as the wrights promoting wii sport and the redknapps with brawl.


Go Layton > Crono!

... in Europe at least!

Uh... CTDS sold around 200k over here, right?
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 4:11:19 PM | message detail
Yep.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
Karma Hunter | Posted 2/25/2009 4:15:05 PM | message detail
Samus is a tough nut to crack no matter what year it is - she seems to do well even when Nintendo is having an off year, thanks to that non-Nintendo fanbase that gives her Noble Nine status. If Ninty continues to falter, beating Mario is another thing entirely - but I don't think most people here think Snake can beat the plumber 1v1 yet.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 4:17:23 PM | message detail
200k isn't bad at all when you consider Chrono Trigger originally only sold about 350k for SNES in America
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 4:22:42 PM | message detail
200k isn't that bad, but it is if you're expecting some big boost for Crono in the contests. A big chunk of that number are more than likely people who have already played Chrono Trigger, and most of those probably already like the game a lot, especially on this site. That's not going to make him jump up to take on Mario or Samus, but then again, I don't think anyone seriously expects that of him.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
Big Bob | Posted 2/25/2009 4:23:23 PM | message detail
Crono = Mega Man > Sonic

Snake over Samus I can see happening, but as impressive as he was last year, it's just hard to imagine Snake beating Mario. Though at this point I'd take all three of them over Sephiroth.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 2/25/2009 4:25:25 PM | message detail
...was there something particularly unimpressive about Sephiroth last year (outside of him being SFFed into the dust by Cloud)?
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Big Bob | Posted 2/25/2009 4:29:01 PM | message detail
Call it gut instinct.

The same gut instinct that when I saw the name "Zack Fair" and didn't recognize it, I figured that he was probably just random fodder.

My gut instincts aren't worth anything unless Pikachu is in the match.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 2/25/2009 4:29:02 PM | message detail
I still like Crono > Mario, maybe Crono > Samus if this year is even worse for Nintendo than last.

That's my boy.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/25/2009 4:29:23 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #379
And you'd be hurt from doing so.


There's no guarantee Mega Man > Sonic just by four-ways to me. Ever.

I see no guarantees in that match regardless. Both are pathetic to me. It just depends on who wins more straight up.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/25/2009 4:44:55 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #389
That's not going to make him jump up to take on Mario or Samus, but then again, I don't think anyone seriously expects that of him.


I was thinking it could seperate him from the bottom of the noble nine, and get him kinda in his own tier between sonic/megaman and samus/snake.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/25/2009 5:07:41 PM | message detail
The best format for an upcoming character contest would be to rip off 2005, in my opinion. Remove Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth. Throw Mario, Mega Man, and Sonic in the top half (maybe have Sonic fight off a couple of near elites if he wants to reach Mario). Throw Samus and Snake in the bottom off so that we'd have a debatable final and one debatable semifinal. Have the bracket winner face Sephiroth to see if we can cook up any more craziness. Winner loses to Link and everyone goes home happy maybe.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 2/25/2009 5:09:09 PM | message detail
Save perhaps Cloud, who is apparently forgotten. Serves him right for not placing for two straight years.
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red sox 777 | Posted 2/25/2009 7:09:15 PM | message detail
I'm not opposed to having Link/Cloud be a semifinal instead of a final match. Perhaps I'm unreasonably scared of something like L-Block catching fire and ruining Link/Cloud again.

As for Mario vs. Crono.....people are really just writing off Crono here? It's not like they were that far away in the first place, as of 2008, anyway. Do we all remember how close Mario was to losing to Zack? How he lost dozens of updates to Samus? This isn't 2005-7 Mario we're dealing with here, so CTDS doesn't need to give Crono a huge boost, (which I wouldn't entirely rule out anyway). It has a lot more potential than your standard port simply because Crono had much lower exposure than the rest of the Noble Nine to start out, and we've seen huge boosts from games/roles that weren't all that big before.
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ZFS | Posted 2/25/2009 7:13:01 PM | message detail
Anyone who judges Mario off of this past year is asking for trouble. There's no doubt that Mario dropped off, but you're not gonna convince anybody that's he and Crono are on the same level based on a four-way match between Link/Mario/X/Zack. I mean c'mon, I know you're a hardcore fan and all that, but you gotta have some sense here.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/25/2009 7:16:10 PM | message detail
Do we all remember how close Mario was to losing to Zack? How he lost dozens of updates to Samus?

Link was in both of those matches.
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