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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 652

WarygonZ | Posted 2/10/2009 1:20:11 PM | message detail
If MM beats Brawl, FFVII's gotta be looking out for LttP, let alone OoT.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/10/2009 1:23:51 PM | message detail
Why? Sorry to keep reiterating the point, but Brawl was ass-bad a few weeks ago. 52% against a game that, while well received, was also not played by most of the site - is it such a stretch to think Majora's Mask could have put up a similar percentage? Even if we chalk that up to franchise voting, isn't it silly to assume that Brawl would fare better against the Zelda franchise, that thing that keeps killing all other things?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/10/2009 1:25:53 PM | message detail
yeah i'm pretty sure at least more than 35% of the site played MM and it does have the Zelda franchise backing it.

it's pretty much what you think today's people like best...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 2/10/2009 1:29:41 PM | message detail
I think the problem with that is that everyone here has played Brawl, while not everyone has played MM. Brawl could still lose due to anti/franchise voting, but people do often just vote for the game they've played over the game they haven't.

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WarygonZ | Posted 2/10/2009 1:33:20 PM | message detail
All I have to look at to buy into Brawl still being strong is the 128 division in 2004. Modern games have people coming to GameFAQS specifically for information about those games. Melee isn't losing to Zelda 1 because Starcraft put 48% on it (after tkaing out cheat votes). Anti-Nintendo votes probably factored greatly into Brawl/MGS4, and nothing pulls anti-Nintendo's hatred more than "Legend of Zelda" and its dominance over the contest since 2004. I dunno, I wasn't here for 2004, so maybe I just don't feel all the "HOLY CRAP ZELDA ALWAYS WINS MASSIVELY WTFFF" factors that the older guys do. <_<
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/10/2009 1:42:47 PM | message detail
well, i'll say this at least: i sure as hell wouldnt take WW over Brawl.
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Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/10/2009 1:45:05 PM | message detail
Anti-Nintendo votes probably factored greatly into Brawl/MGS4, and nothing pulls anti-Nintendo's hatred more than "Legend of Zelda" and its dominance over the contest since 2004.

I disagree. Zelda has always been popular here, and rarely gets any noteworthy backlash for it. This "anti-Nintendo" sentiment is very recent on the site, and it's aimed far more at the Wii and Nintendo's focus on the casual crowd. If any game is going to fall victim to that bad sentiment, it's going to be Brawl, not the older Zelda games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/10/2009 1:45:23 PM | message detail
Remember when at the end of round 2 many people were calling for an all Zelda semi-final.

Brawl > WW > MM
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/10/2009 1:46:57 PM | message detail
Remember when we considered Brawl the big favorite to beat Melee and Twilight Princess.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/10/2009 2:24:47 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/10/2009 2:25:05 PM | message detail
As far as Brawl has fallen, at least it didn't fall as far as GTAIV did.

Remember when FF9 vs. GTAIV was considered a good first round match?

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ZFS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:29:00 PM | message detail
While X may have plenty of reasons to age well, the site as a whole shifting away from square doesn't elicit too much confidence in it outperforming itself from 2004. That was the last year of Square domination.

Not sure I'd agree there. The site has shifted away from Square domination, but it hasn't hurt too much in contests. Square characters did pretty well this past year, ignoring Cloud/Sephiroth against Block Snake. I do think some Square games will be weaker for that reason (thinking FFVI here), but FFX should still hold up really well. Ignoring the first six (FFVII/OoT/LTTP/CT/Mario 3/Melee) the only game I'd take over it would Twilight Princess, and even then I think that's a pretty close match.


If MM beats Brawl, FFVII's gotta be looking out for LttP, let alone OoT.

What

Quick - MM vs. MGS4

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GameZACKS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:30:21 PM | message detail
MM

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GAMEZACKS
trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:30:35 PM | message detail
probably MGS4. I have no respect for mid-tier Zeldas in 2009.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/10/2009 2:31:11 PM | message detail
i'd probably lean towards MGS4 for some unknown reason.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:32:14 PM | message detail
Really? It's hard for me to see MGS4 hanging with a Zelda game, even if it is mid-tier. Would you take MGS4 over TWW, too?

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trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:33:08 PM | message detail
probably. I've no respect for Zelda and a *lot* of respect for MGS after the last contest.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
KamikazePotato | Posted 2/10/2009 2:34:23 PM | message detail
No respect for Zelda? Why?

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trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:35:25 PM | message detail
not for lower-tier Zeldas. Nintendo got trashed across the board last year. Zelda is the one thing that held up well but this site has been shifting towards the PS3 and away from Nintendo for a year now, and it's all because of MGS4.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
ZFS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:36:37 PM | message detail
I can understand that...if we were talking about the other games. The 'franchise voting' argument is no good against a Zelda game either, and that's what it'd need to win out there. I'm expecting good things from MGS1 and MGS3 (they'd have no trouble against MM, if you ask me), but MGS4's a bit different.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
GameZACKS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:37:37 PM | message detail
I don't think it's shifting away from Nintendo... it's shifting away from Wii. Which says to me TP will be the one to bomb if anything, even if it is a GC game. I think Zelda fanboys are as strong and rampant as ever, and I don't think MGS4 has the player-ship to hang with the Zelda franchise.

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trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:38:55 PM | message detail
it looked pretty good against a Smash game recently - it's not like the site hates Smash now. that's 90% shift and 10% people like yoblazer that want to bury Brawl.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:39:42 PM | message detail
mmm, shifting away from the Wii means a shift towards the 360 and PS3. and that's a shift towards MGS4.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/10/2009 2:42:45 PM | message detail
I don't want to bury Brawl, I just think its GotY showing was completely dreadful and that Majora's Mask has a non-trivial shot against it. I think I'm being reasonable here.
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GameZACKS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:42:51 PM | message detail
Well that depends on how you look at the match really. I see it as far more of Brawl's weakness than MGS4's strength. I was also aboard Melee > Brawl, directly or indirectly before all that GOTY nonsense, so I'm being consistent here.

As for the shift, it's much more towards the 360. Sure the PS3 is getting some of it though, and MGS4 is the biggest reason for it, but I still don't think it's reached enough people to hang with a decently strong Zelda game.

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GAMEZACKS
ZFS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:43:44 PM | message detail
I agree that the site is shifting away from Nintendo. That stretch of dominance they had for a couple of years is definitely done at this point. The last contest and those GotY polls kinda said it all there.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
trannyscience | Posted 2/10/2009 2:46:11 PM | message detail
I think WW is a decent bit above MM, too. this isn't me thinking Brawl is a powerhouse in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, it's that MM isn't going to be worth much. I might go for WW over MGS4, but probably not - I mean, a Zelda game only getting 55% on a Metroid game? not impressed at all.

I did take the other four over Brawl. MM just isn't in the FFX/TP class, not even close.
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xyzzy
6:10:50
GameZACKS | Posted 2/10/2009 2:48:29 PM | message detail
Well I don't necessarily think MM would beat Brawl, but I feel like MM would do better against MGS4 directly than Brawl would.

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GAMEZACKS
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/10/2009 3:27:56 PM | message detail
131,000 nominations. we just might reach 200k after all anyway.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
HaRRicH | Posted 2/10/2009 3:32:06 PM | message detail
I'd take MGS4 > LoZ:MM, personally.


About SSBB/LoZ:MM being close...on second thought, it could be close. It's not like SSBB is going to be favored to beat SM64 or GE, and the VC-N64-poll in August suggested LoZ:MM isn't too far from GE. That poll could be shaky, yes, but that plus the LoZ-brand name...I guess LoZ:MM has a non-trivial shot like yoblazer said.

It's just that I don't like its chances; SSBB seems like it was still better received both at first and in general. Throw in that it's newer and almost certainly has a higher playrate...those should add up to be enough to keep it out of LoZ:MM's hands. I don't think anti-votes will favor LoZ:MM in most SFF-battles, even if LoZ can be killer in SFF.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/10/2009 4:01:35 PM | message detail
Personally, I'd take MGS4 over both Majora's Mask and Wind Waker. I just don't feel that MM is going to be worth much, and WW was rather unimpressive - really, a Zelda game only getting 55% on a Metroid game? I'm not impressed at all.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 2/11/2009 5:20:40 AM | message detail
Gimme Brawl > MGS4 > WW > MM

Poll 2644 (01/27/07)
Which games would you most love to see on the Wii's Virtual Console?

7546 9.13% Castlevania I-III+Rondo of Blood
2858 3.46% Final Fantasy I-III
11425 13.83% Final Fantasy IV-VI
3627 4.39% Phantasy Star I-IV
9912 12.00% Star Fox/Star Fox 64
22438 27.16% Super Mario RPG/Paper Mario
24806 30.03% Zelda: Ocarina of Time/Majora's Mask

TOTAL VOTES: 82612

And look, this poll suggests that Mario RPG has a non-trivial shot at Ocarina of Time!

Poll 1225 (04/12/2003)
What's your favorite Zelda game?

4372 7.63% Legend of Zelda
15079 26.32% Link to the Past
2499 4.36% Link's Awakening
2473 4.32% Majora's Mask
20818 36.34% Ocarina of Time
1244 2.17% Oracle of Ages/Seasons
9394 16.40% Wind Waker
1402 2.45% Zelda II: Adventure of Link

TOTAL VOTES: 57281

And don't forget this one. Majora's Mask isn't a favorite Zelda title. Never has been, never will be, not even close.

Sure, the Zelda name is worth a lot, but it's not a guaranteed win. Even Zelda can be beaten soundly by a game that's simply stronger than it is.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/11/2009 6:16:52 AM | message detail
can you honestly expect Majora's Mask to do good with Ocarina of Time also in the poll? >_>;;
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 2/11/2009 6:31:43 AM | message detail
And it's not like all Zelda games are pillars of strength. Proof?

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Wind_Waker_vs_Metroid_Prime_2004

How a Zelda game can ONLY manage 55% against a Metroid game (remember, Samus tends to stink up the joint against Nintendo) is beyond me.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/11/2009 7:07:52 AM | message detail
well it's still nearly equal to Starcraft back then (however strong that was). maybe we're underestimating Prime.

but i doubt Windwaker is as strong as it was back then as well.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 2/11/2009 7:32:29 AM | message detail
Well Wind Waker was hated in 2004 and while I would take Super Metroid > Metroid Prime MP has strength and was more universally loved than WW unlike LttP/SM
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
Mumei | Posted 2/11/2009 7:56:28 AM | message detail
I'm just... going to put this out there, but how many of you regularly vote for games you haven't played over games you played and liked, based on some other rationale - wanting game to lose because you think it is overrated (despite liking it), being a fan of the series from which the former game comes from, particularly liking a character from the game... something along those lines.

I just ask because I do this all the time, wondered if this was at all common with the stats topic.

(I probably do this because I hardly ever actually play many games any more, but that's besides the point. <______<)

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 2/11/2009 7:56:34 AM | message detail
i always figured Wind Waker was stronger back then because it was recent; it isnt the kind of game to stand the test of time if you ask me.
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/11/2009 8:48:46 AM | message detail
I'm just... going to put this out there, but how many of you regularly vote for games you haven't played over games you played and liked, based on some other rationale - wanting game to lose because you think it is overrated (despite liking it), being a fan of the series from which the former game comes from, particularly liking a character from the game... something along those lines.

I do because it's a series that I liked, but there is a limit. For example I've never played the original Kingdom Hearts, but I'd vote for it over games that I've played, however with games that are close in ranking to KH2 I'd take them over KH.
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/11/2009 10:54:43 AM | message detail
Majora's Mask is being hideously overrated. Brawl would wipe its ass with it in a poll, even though I do agree MM is a damn good game.

Now Zelda 1 vs Majora's Mask, there's a poll I'd like to see.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 2/11/2009 11:05:00 AM | message detail
Let's be fair. We've seen much more of Brawl in "fair" scenarios than we have of Majora. We're not even sure which way the SFF would shift there. Besides, implying that Brawl would kill the game basically means Fallout 3 beats it or at least gives it one hell of a fight. Hard to buy that.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/11/2009 11:48:44 AM | message detail
can you honestly expect Majora's Mask to do good with Ocarina of Time also in the poll? >_>;;

FF8 can still beat the likes of FF9 and FF12 in a poll with FF7 in it:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2593

Compare that to how LoZ:MM was twenty-six votes shy of beating Link's Awakening with LoZ:OoT in the poll. I know we assume Nintendo-SFF is harsher, but that would need to affect the rest of the games in the poll too.


How a Zelda game can ONLY manage 55% against a Metroid game (remember, Samus tends to stink up the joint against Nintendo) is beyond me.

To be fair, Metroid Prime did win a GotY here before (a tougher GotY than what LoZ:WW won) and was widely considered to be the most successful of the three risky changes in major Nintendo franchises for the Gamecube (SMS, MP, and LoZ:WW -- all within a year at that); we've seen it work out for MP against SMS in a huge way, at least:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1128

We also know that -- while Samus has stunk against Nintendo before -- this wasn't anything like Mario/Samus, SMB3/Metroid, or LoZ:LttP/SM. We can also bring up that Metroid Prime had more people nominate it than LoZ:WW in a format where you can only nominate one game per system, which is nice...though that didn't matter for SM against LoZ:LttP, it doesn't hurt to have it in your favor either. For kicks, MP also outdid LoZ:WW on the Top 100 List by sixteen spots. MP isn't a pushover and LoZ:WW wasn't exactly meant for SFF-situations.



For what it's worth, how do people think MP/LoZ:MM would go percentage-wise?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 2/11/2009 11:52:06 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 2/11/2009 2:05:00 PM | #091
Let's be fair. We've seen much more of Brawl in "fair" scenarios than we have of Majora. We're not even sure which way the SFF would shift there. Besides, implying that Brawl would kill the game basically means Fallout 3 beats it or at least gives it one hell of a fight. Hard to buy that.


I'd pick Fallout 3 over MM without thinking twice.
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
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charmander6000 | Posted 2/11/2009 12:05:39 PM | message detail
MP > MM in a 57/43 affair
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
LeonhartFour | Posted 2/12/2009 5:49:14 AM | message detail
To answer Mumei's question: Yes, I vote for games I've never played in polls for one reason or the other. I probably would've voted for MGS4 in the GOTY poll whether I had played it or not!

And honestly, this is the ONLY place I've ever been where people even TALK about Majora's Mask.
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/12/2009 8:19:44 AM | message detail
I'll say yes too on occasion, but it's usually bracket-voting when I'm still in prize-contention, so...that's not very common for me to do!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 2/12/2009 7:34:44 PM | message detail
Okay I'm back from a 15 day purg

any update on the bracket?
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HaRRicH | Posted 2/12/2009 7:36:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, nominations are open.
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Gaddswell | Posted 2/13/2009 2:13:12 AM | message detail
So... who here is optimistic enough for the nominations to close by March1st?
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voltch | Posted 2/13/2009 2:24:16 AM | message detail
wow,why so much focus on majora's mask anyway?

if it's a 64 game bracket it'll have a damn hard time making the field with twilight princess,link to the past,ocarina of time,windwaker and legend of zelda as competition.
Heck i expect there to be more Zelda games than FF games in the bracket but people will still complain of everyone being FF fanboys when at least 35 games will be from nintendo.

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