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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 651

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 4:59:08 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | #200
Except Brawl is the type of game to get anti votes, too.

The only people who would anti-vote Brawl are a small vocal minority. It's not anything statistically significant.


Meh. Theres a contigent of people here I'm sure that would anti vote a Nintendo fanboy game just due to people getting sick of all the Nintendo love.
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Kazyan | Posted 1/17/2009 5:52:38 PM | message detail
Message From GameFAQs on 01/13/2009

The decision to combine games will be made as the bracket is designed. Rest assured, you won't see Pokemon Red vs Pokemon Blue in the finals or anything like that.


I think we're all jumping to conclusions thinking that this means a guaranteed 1v1.

Think about it. If the contest was a 4-way, Bacon would have no reason to add "vs Crono Trigger vs Crono Trigger DS" to make his point, and if he did so, it would give away the 4-way bracket. So, having two options in his example doesn't mean much. Secondly, I'm pretty sure Samus/Crono/Vincent/Pikachu was rarely referred to by the full title, just Crono/Vincent--because that's all we cared about. Pokemon Red vs Pokemon Blue is all we would care about as well, and we'd ignore *insert two other games here*.
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2009 6:22:42 PM | message detail
Agreed completely with Kazyan. Nothing about that sounds certain.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2009 6:26:06 PM | message detail
I often refer to fourway matches by their full titles.

But the point stands. It's nothing definite, but it's better than nothing.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 6:27:12 PM | message detail
we already made the point in his topic. from here it's just a waiting game.

speaking of which, now that we've seen MM9 I guess I can find a new nomination.. hmm.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2009 6:28:44 PM | message detail
Actually a good idea, though I don't know what I'd replace with it.....
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 6:28:54 PM | message detail

From: transience | #205
we already made the point in his topic. from here it's just a waiting game.

speaking of which, now that we've seen MM9 I guess I can find a new nomination.. hmm.


tales of vesperia imo
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 6:30:38 PM | message detail
I have a no Tales mantra that I live by, sorry
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 6:35:13 PM | message detail
Fallout 3? If the front page nominations don't pick up, I'm not sure it gets in (or at least gets a good seed). Wasn't its B8 support low?

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
transience | Posted 1/17/2009 6:36:14 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 was a lock from the second the noms were announced, honestly. it's not like board 8 is the only ones nominating, and it's fairly popular here too.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 6:36:23 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #209
Fallout 3? If the front page nominations don't pick up, I'm not sure it gets in (or at least gets a good seed). Wasn't its B8 support low?


IIRC it got enough noms in the b8 topic to get in easily but not with a high seed
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2009 6:37:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, but I'm pretty sure its reviews were great. It's got a decent chance anyway.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 6:39:08 PM | message detail
Eh...I guess. I just can't think of anything.

Oh well time to replace a nom for PERSONA 4 IT GOT 40+% IN A POLL SO STRONG

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 6:39:43 PM | message detail
Reviews don't affect who gets in. Only the seedings.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/17/2009 6:39:44 PM | message detail
cool people nominate persona 4
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 6:43:13 PM | message detail
yeah, reviews only matter once it gets in to determine its seedings
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 9:02:12 PM | message detail
hey, a cool poll. RE5 should blitz this thing.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 9:05:21 PM | message detail
lol Pokemon Platinum was in second when I voted. SFIV should crush it by the end.
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 9:06:09 PM | message detail
its sad when a pokemon re-release beats SF4 and SO4
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2009 9:06:41 PM | message detail
I'm like 99% sure of 1v1
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
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FFDragon | Posted 1/17/2009 9:09:33 PM | message detail
Seeing polls like this make me think that a RE vs SF rematch wouldn't be as close.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 9:10:17 PM | message detail

From: FFDragon | #221
Seeing polls like this make me think that a RE vs SF rematch wouldn't be as close.


the dominance of RE characters last contest makes me think RE is on a whole new level now
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 9:11:18 PM | message detail
If SFIV can't build a big enough lead Pokemon may take second by morning. At least SO is ahead of Halo Wars.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
Gaddswell | Posted 1/17/2009 9:12:06 PM | message detail
Ha, 1 vote Platinum lead at the freeze and now SF4 gained a vote to tie..
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
XxSoulxX | Posted 1/17/2009 9:12:48 PM | message detail
Why did crap like Star Ocean and Skate make it in this poll and Empire: Total War get cut? Boo to you SFailin!
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Good Times,
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 9:13:13 PM | message detail
this is pretty good considering how SF4 got wrecked a year or so ago. then again, the competition was much greater.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 9:16:02 PM | message detail
Since the first freeze Resident Evil has gained almost 2%, talk about a terrible board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
Gaddswell | Posted 1/17/2009 9:16:11 PM | message detail
Halo Wars and Star Ocean 4 look good right now too. Only 1 vote apart right now. Of course, that'll change in the day.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 9:17:56 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #225
Why did crap like Star Ocean and Skate make it in this poll and Empire: Total War get cut? Boo to you SFailin!


why would the best game of the year not make the cut?
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Gaddswell | Posted 1/17/2009 9:42:13 PM | message detail
Whoa, Pokemon within 1 of SF4 again, after SF4 pulled to a 30-something vote lead.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 9:44:41 PM | message detail
Man, getting excited about that's like getting excited about MGS4 taking a slim lead on Brawl in the final GotY poll - who cares? PP's gonna have this firmly in hand by morning.

And RE wouldn't do much better than it did on SF now as compared to last time - as long as the picture was the same. Give the two something more equitable, of course, and RE smashes it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/18/2009 2:02:42 AM | message detail
For the record, when there is an anticipation-based poll, it's usually asking about what game this month you look forward to the most. This time it's a quarter instead of a month, insinuating SB planned to have BGE-2 interfere for afew months; anticipation-polls have been rescheduled before for such things.

Not that we're expecting to wait too much longer or anything, but I'd say this is a sign SB intends to have the contest start by March 1st at the latest...and the fact today's poll covers February too is nice.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/18/2009 8:46:06 AM | message detail
I'm really surprised that Pokemon Platinum is taking second, I thought with all the hype Street Fighter IV would take second.

Must be that Capcom SFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/18/2009 12:51:04 PM | message detail
Capcom SFF.

... >_> i'll never take this seriously.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
XxSoulxX | Posted 1/18/2009 3:38:28 PM | message detail
why would the best game of the year not make the cut?

That's what I'm asking!
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Good Times,
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/18/2009 3:39:11 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #235
why would the best game of the year not make the cut?

That's what I'm asking!


u were saying to take out so4 tho
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XxSoulxX | Posted 1/18/2009 3:44:43 PM | message detail
I was saying take out the useless games for the best game of the year. I thought that was pretty straightforward with my original post (and follow-up).
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Good Times,
Great Memories
paulg235 | Posted 1/18/2009 3:45:02 PM | message detail
Does Capcom SFF even exist? I mean, look at Mega Man/Zero, Mega Man/Leon Kennedy, Mega Man/Ryu, and Dante/Ammy/Ada/Balthier.
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The Gamer In Me
paulg235 | Posted 1/18/2009 3:46:31 PM | message detail
Then again, Capcom LFF is another story, what with 2007's Division 6 final, Crono/Ryu/L-Block/Ammy and Mega Man/Zero/Snake/Cube.
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The Gamer In Me
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/18/2009 8:40:39 PM | message detail
Nom Update!

We just crossed the 62k nomination mark, which means that 22k new picks have come in since the form went to the main page three days ago. Now we're getting somewhere!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/18/2009 8:45:54 PM | message detail
i suppose that's better than nothing..

have the rates gone higher by the days? by how much?
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2009 9:38:50 PM | message detail
5 minute update data for the 2008 Final GotY poll and the 2008 Final Final GotY poll:
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/2008 GotY Finals Updates.xls

Times listed are in PST because I forgot to change my clock to EST before collecting updates. You'll need to add 3 hours to the listed times to get the EST equivalent. Also the time listed is the time I collected the update which is not necessarily the time the update was put up on GameFAQs. First the first final, the time listed is up to 2 minutes later than the actual poll update. For the second final, the time listed is up to 1 minutes late. All 5 minute updates were collected.


Interesting stuff. Based on the times of the updates (except the first few updates of the match), were you using a script to keep track of the updates?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/18/2009 10:27:17 PM | message detail
Thanks to TRE's updates on the 3-way match, I was able to fix some mistakes in my match trends, since I had to make an approximation of the results at 2:30 PM (start of the ASV) using two updates that had been recorded at 3:00 PM and 2:50 PM, since I missed my chance to note the 2:30 PM update down. So my match trends for the DSV and ASV are slightly off. The correct trends:

Time | Fallout 3 | MGS4 | Brawl
EBV | 27.14% | 34.69% | 38.17% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 28.40% | 35.55% | 36.05% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 30.41% | 36.93% | 32.65% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 31.38% | 33.66% | 34.96% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 31.01% | 33.60% | 35.39% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 30.04% | 32.00% | 37.95% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 31.57% | 31.88% | 36.56% | (22:00-24:00)

I was also able to do a trend chart on the MGS4/Brawl match using TRE's updates:

Time | MGS4 | Brawl
EBV | 46.07% | 53.93% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 48.86% | 51.14% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 52.19% | 47.81% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 48.47% | 51.53% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 48.19% | 51.81% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 45.30% | 54.70% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 46.04% | 53.96% | (22:00-24:00)
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Gaddswell | Posted 1/18/2009 11:00:58 PM | message detail
Looks like the only time Brawl doesn't outright win in is that first night vote.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/18/2009 11:16:44 PM | message detail
Yikes, look how Smash flat out smashes that ASV. Poor Magus never had a chance!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
HaRRicH | Posted 1/19/2009 2:28:33 AM | message detail
sandbag'd
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/19/2009 7:48:24 AM | message detail
I had a dream last night that Bacon announced it would be both formats, with the first round being 4-ways and the rest of it being 1-on-1.

Or was it 3-ways? Either way, I wouldn't be totally opposed to the idea...
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/19/2009 8:01:38 AM | message detail
I had a dream

Happy MLK day.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/19/2009 8:02:19 AM | message detail
At least, I seriously thought you were saying that was the solution to everybody's problems but.. lol now I get that you DID actually have a dream.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/19/2009 8:05:56 AM | message detail
No, it seriously was a dream!

...Didn't catch the irony of that though.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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