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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 651

transience | Posted 1/17/2009 2:20:12 PM | message detail
hey, remember that bracket I made?

~1~

1 - Zelda: Ocarina of Time
16 - Persona 3

8 - Portal
9 - Donkey Kong Country 2

5 - Mega Man 2
12 - Starfox 64

4 - Grand Theft Auto 4
13 - Final Fantasy IX

6 - Goldeneye 007
11 - LittleBigPlanet

3 - Super Mario Galaxy
14 - Devil May Cry

7 - Kingdom Hearts
10 - Metal Gear Solid 3

2 - Resident Evil 4
15 - Disgaea: Hour of Darkness

~2~

1 - Chrono Trigger
16 - Soul Calibur

8 - Fallout 3
9 - Mario Kart 64

5 - Zelda: Link to the Past
12 - The World Ends With You

4 - Gears of War
13 - Street Fighter II

6 - Bioshock
11 - Kirby Super Star

3 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
14 - Animal Crossing

7 - Final Fantasy VI
10 - Pokemon Diamond

2 - Mario 64
15 - Left 4 Dead

~3~

1 - Zelda: Twilight Princess
16 - Fire Emblem (GBA)

8 - Starcraft
9 - Final Fantasy Tactics

5 - Metal Gear Solid
12 - Sonic the Hedgehog 2

4 - Final Fantasy X
13 - Earthbound

6 - Call of Duty 4
11 - World of Warcraft

3 - Super Smash Bros. Melee
14 - Fable 2

7 - Tales of Symphonia
10 - Okami

2 - Super Mario Bros. 3
15 - Kingdom Hearts 2

~4~

1 - Metal Gear Solid 4
16 - Super Mario RPG

8 - Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
9 - God of War 2

5 - Halo
12 - Zelda: Majora's Mask

4 - Metroid Prime
13 - Diablo 2

6 - Super Metroid
11 - Castlevania: Symphony of the Night

3 - Pokemon Red
14 - Guitar Hero 2

7 - Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island
10 - Half-Life 2

2 - Final Fantasy VII
15 - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney

what do we think about this now? division 2 in particular.

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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 2:21:44 PM | message detail
AC>Brawl

If it can beat FF7...

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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 2:22:43 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 and MGS4 suddenly look wasted (FO3 because it gets fed to CT almost immediately, MGS4 because it seems like a lock to get pulverized by FF7 at the end of its division).
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Yesmar | Posted 1/17/2009 2:23:37 PM | message detail
Like that's credible.

Look up in the topic.

I haven't seen anyone argue for 1v1 being exciting at all early on though which is my main problem with it. A fun contest should be enjoyable all the way through; not just final couple rounds. And yes, 1v1 shines there since we see whos truly strongest and all, but to get that, we have a dull contest early on, and I don't think thats worth it.

The worst matches tend to be in the first couple of rounds, but a lot of the all time greats are there as well. The same is true for 4 ways. Good bracket making and a power bracket can fix most boring first round matchups anyway.

And what's wrong with Link's three first round matches in 1 vs. 1? They were all solidly entertaining matches.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 2:23:48 PM | message detail
And Brawl/FFVI suddenly seems like a match where Brawl is the heavy underdog, even if FF6 has depreciated like many of us think it has.
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 2:24:40 PM | message detail
hey man, Fallout 3 crushed CT in the GOTY poll.

people unanimously took MK64 over Fallout 3 last go-round, and Majora's Mask got a lot of support over MGS4. GOTY polls are a lovely thing.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
transience | Posted 1/17/2009 2:25:17 PM | message detail
also, GTA4/FF9 is probably unanimous now as well.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 2:26:05 PM | message detail
Hey, I could have bought MM over MGS4 on the basis that PS3 ownership just didn't have what it took! Unfortunately, we got one too many GotY poll this year.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2009 2:30:27 PM | message detail
For MGS4, PS3 ownership has very little to do with it. I thought this was obvious.

Oh, and for all of you who thought MGS4/Mario RPG would be a sexy little upset pick...what now?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 2:33:25 PM | message detail
You might as well ask (the far more interesting) SMRPG v Majora's Mask instead.
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transience | Posted 1/17/2009 2:33:46 PM | message detail
heh, I forgot about that. I never would have taken it but didn't think MGS4 could break 55%.. now I think it'd be about 60/40 at the least.

one thing about GOTY polls - we don't know how they compare to older games. Mario RPG *could* still win that, though I'd never take it.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/17/2009 2:34:18 PM | message detail
Oh, and for all of you who thought MGS4/Mario RPG would be a sexy little upset pick...what now?

:(

uh.. well, it could still happen!!!! >______> Brawl is pathetic yeah.

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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2009 2:34:18 PM | message detail
I was asking for the sake of my own personal satisfaction because it's obvious how wrong those people are now.

And give me Mario RPG!
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HaRRicH | Posted 1/17/2009 2:35:50 PM | message detail
SMRPG > SSBB!

=)
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2009 2:37:21 PM | message detail
Obvious that MGS4 would beat SMRPG now? Well, I'll grant that MGS4 deserves to be the favorite now, but it's not a lock, and neither is Brawl/SMRPG!
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Link he come to town
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2009 2:37:47 PM | message detail
You're reaching if you think that! Seriously, CT isn't doubling Brawl.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 2:37:49 PM | message detail
I expect especially with how well Fallout 3 did in the goty polls and its ratings, it should get a very high seed. Alot of people I'm sure will now nomiante it after it did so well
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2009 2:38:36 PM | message detail
But we have no idea how badly CT SFF'd SMRPG.
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Link he come to town
Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/17/2009 2:42:34 PM | message detail
Eh, I have a hard time believing that Fallout 3 beats SMRPG...it beating MGS4 is still possible, especially after coming out on the VC (it came out on the VC in Europe too, right?). But I don't think I'd take the upset now, while I would've before the GotY polls.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 2:44:15 PM | message detail

From: Mac Arrowny | #169
Eh, I have a hard time believing that Fallout 3 beats SMRPG...it beating MGS4 is still possible, especially after coming out on the VC (it came out on the VC in Europe too, right?). But I don't think I'd take the upset now, while I would've before the GotY polls.


Street Fighter 2 and Fallout 3 are a different beast. Right now I'd give Fallout 3 a 70-30 win over SF2
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 1/17/2009 2:45:58 PM | message detail
70 - 30 seems like it's going a bit far ;>_>
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 2:52:07 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #171
70 - 30 seems like it's going a bit far ;>_>


Why? Do you see SMRPG not getting blown out by MGS4/SSBB? Its not like its exactly a strong game or anything plus should be even weaker than last time.
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red sox 777 | Posted 1/17/2009 2:54:09 PM | message detail
Are you aware of how strong a game would need to be to 70-30 SF2? I wouldn't take anything but FFVII and OOT to do that.
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Link he come to town
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 2:57:27 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #173
Are you aware of how strong a game would need to be to 70-30 SF2? I wouldn't take anything but FFVII and OOT to do that.


hmm maybe you're right. i just checked some xstats and 70-30 would be what ffx would do against sf2 and i dont think its as strong as ffx

maybe 60-40
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 2:59:42 PM | message detail
Super Mario RPG (2004g) VS Halo (2004g)

Super Mario RPG has a strength of 30.26.
Halo has a strength of 40.96.

Halo wins with 63.06% of the vote!
A win of 26,298 with 100,668 total votes cast.


super mario rpg sure is a monster aint it
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:05:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 3:05:21 PM | message detail
Good lord, there are so many thing wrong with this current discussion.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:06:24 PM | message detail
People seriously think that SMRPG can beat MGS4? It'll prove that it didn't deserve a 16 seed, but I have a hard time buying that SMRPG can break 45% on MGS4.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:07:48 PM | message detail
now to be honest and not just screwing around

MGS4 gets 58% on Super mario rpg and I think Fallout 3 gets like 53%
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:09:38 PM | message detail
I however see Fallout 3 being a flop in the contest now that people's expectations for it are high.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 3:12:20 PM | message detail
F3 is only a flop is it does disproportionately bad compared to how MGS4 and Brawl perform, considering everyone will use those two as measuring sticks.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:15:08 PM | message detail
Which I see happening. I can see Brawl and MGS4 break or near 60% on Fallout 3.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:16:03 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #182
Which I see happening. I can see Brawl and MGS4 break or near 60% on Fallout 3.


Honestly I think Fallout 3 can go about even with mgs4, maybe 52-48% win by mgs4 due to PS3 ownership problems

SSBB puts 60% or so though
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KamikazePotato | Posted 1/17/2009 3:18:37 PM | message detail
Both those statements make no sense whatsoever.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:19:52 PM | message detail
Why? I see PS3 exclusives, mainly MGS4 struggling come contest time with 1v1 due to the 1v1 bracket. It'll need at least 50% and with so few people here having ps3s, it'll need to depend largely on votes of people who haven't played the game. And that'll work for weaker games, but when it faces really strong competition it won't work
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charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:20:04 PM | message detail
MGS4 could possibly go the same as Pac-Man or Tetris where it will destroy things based on name value, but will fold once it goes up against something like Super Mario World.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
hailEC | Posted 1/17/2009 3:23:00 PM | message detail
If SMRPG beat MGS4 I'd tie myself to a poll naked with the words "spank me I've been naughty" painted on my chest

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/17/2009 3:26:15 PM | message detail
so.

when nominations goin' down!
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 1/17/2009 3:27:22 PM | message detail
When we near 200,000 nominations. I think we had about 50,000 since yesterday.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/17/2009 3:38:35 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 1/17/2009 5:08:09 PM | #148

Been hinted at in a message Bacon sent to ulti


Like that's credible.


I'd make a screenshot, but I'm pretty sure I'd get banned for sharing the other things he said =p
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
Now Playing: Mother 3, MGS: Portable Ops, Chrono Trigger, Mario Kart Wii
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/17/2009 3:39:51 PM | message detail
come on put up a banner dammit.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:44:22 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #190
I'd make a screenshot, but I'm pretty sure I'd get banned for sharing the other things he said =p


O.o
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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 3:44:35 PM | message detail
There's zero reason why MGS4 should fold based on PS3 ownership now. If you can get 48% on Brawl, you're gonna get 50%+ on a lot of games.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:45:18 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #193
There's zero reason why MGS4 should fold based on PS3 ownership now. If you can get 48% on Brawl, you're gonna get 50%+ on a lot of games.


Except Brawl is the type of game to get anti votes, too.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 1/17/2009 3:51:38 PM | message detail
And somehow FO3 is going to magically get less antivotes if it goes up against Brawl directly and only put up 40%? And yet still beat MGS4?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 3:52:24 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #195
And somehow FO3 is going to magically get less antivotes if it goes up against Brawl directly and only put up 40%? And yet still beat MGS4?


When did I say it would beat MGS4?
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hailEC | Posted 1/17/2009 3:53:04 PM | message detail
Yes. Logic is for losers.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 1/17/2009 4:53:44 PM | message detail
Did someone seriously consult the Games Contest stats? Those are the most worthless set of stats next to the Series Contest stats.

Well, and the "adjusted off of nothing" Games Contest stats.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/17/2009 4:54:26 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #198
Did someone seriously consult the Games Contest stats? Those are the most worthless set of stats next to the Series Contest stats.

Well, and the "adjusted off of nothing" Games Contest stats.


Well I was just trolling cuz of how stupid it looked with halos xstat values >_>
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Yesmar | Posted 1/17/2009 4:58:15 PM | message detail
Except Brawl is the type of game to get anti votes, too.

The only people who would anti-vote Brawl are a small vocal minority. It's not anything statistically significant.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!