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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 651

ZFS | Posted 1/15/2009 9:52:29 PM | message detail
shadow hearts good move

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/15/2009 11:54:18 PM | message detail
BEST OF 2008: Game of the Year (Final, Final Vote)
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 49.99% 9059
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 50.01% 9062
TOTAL VOTES 18121
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
HaRRicH | Posted 1/15/2009 11:56:28 PM | message detail
BEST OF 2008: Game of the Year (Final, Final Vote)
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 50.11% 9246
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 49.89% 9206
TOTAL VOTES 18452


There you go, MGS4-fans.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
transience | Posted 1/16/2009 8:54:44 AM | message detail
any word on how many more nominations we have since they hit the front page?
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Master Moltar | Posted 1/16/2009 9:44:42 AM | message detail
So my Internet's been out the past two days

Looking at yesterday and today's poll

uh wow

"all hail MGS4"
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Moltar Status: yessssssss
all hail MGS4 the king of 2008 games
HaRRicH | Posted 1/16/2009 10:55:54 AM | message detail
I think SSBB took (and retook) the lead yesterday around 3:00. give or take a little. Today, SSBB is up by 705 votes with over an hour to spare before the ASV...good place to be. To MGS4's credit though (and I need confirmation for this), I think it's been stalling SSBB for like an hour when SSBB was taking it yesterday. I don't think this will matter when the ASV hits, but that's another positive for MGS4.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/16/2009 11:04:12 AM | message detail
MGS4 did very well these 3 days- I don't think even Karma Hunter was expecting it to give Brawl a fight like this. Hopefully we'll have a bracket soon. So......

FFX vs. Brawl? I'd take FFX, and from all the FFX > Melee talk yesterday, I'd guess most of this topic would too- am I right?
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Link he come to town
HaRRicH | Posted 1/16/2009 11:06:48 AM | message detail
SSBM > FFX >(=?) SSBB
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 1/16/2009 11:09:45 AM | message detail
For all we know, Brawl and MGS4 actually are as huge as FF7 and OoT, with Fallout 3 in the likes of Melee and SMB3.

In fact, I really hope they are. It'd be great.
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Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/16/2009 11:10:33 AM | message detail

From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #059
For all we know, Brawl and MGS4 actually are as huge as FF7 and OoT, with Fallout 3 in the likes of Melee and SMB3.

In fact, I really hope they are. It'd be great.


umm

yeah
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n266/Mike_S_02/Baltimore_Ravens_Sig.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/16/2009 12:29:49 PM | message detail
FFX vs Brawl would be interesting but I don't think Fallout 3 would ever come that close to beating FFX.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
H__RR____H | Posted 1/16/2009 12:31:00 PM | message detail
BEST OF 2008: Game of the Year (Final, Final Vote)
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 49.19% 33281
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 50.81% 34382
TOTAL VOTES 67663

At 3:25 PM, SSBB broke 1,000 (unless I missed something).
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/16/2009 12:42:07 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 vs FFX needs to happen anyways
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/16/2009 12:53:32 PM | message detail
http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/5711/fodderforcecd4.png

hahaha oh my god
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/16/2009 12:59:48 PM | message detail
http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/5711/fodderforcecd4.png

i love the image file name
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n266/Mike_S_02/Baltimore_Ravens_Sig.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 2:20:43 PM | message detail
I don't think even Karma Hunter was expecting it to give Brawl a fight like this.

If anyone was paying attention to my PCA (haha...), I was expecting MGS4 to get smashed by Brawl, and very possibly upset by Fallout 3. I can't deny that the SotY poll the day before gave me hope, but still, it's hard for me (though heartening!) to believe this is MGS4's strength instead of Brawl's weakness. Looking at this, you'd have to say there's a good chance MGS has the most dedicated fans EVER, and that doesn't make a lot of sense.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
HaRRicH | Posted 1/16/2009 2:29:52 PM | message detail
Well, I mean, a lot of them paid $450-$650 for MGS4 and had been hyped for two years to get it in their hands, not to mention the ratings and reviews were killer for it. Many people are wild about at least one of the other MGS-games too, and people really exploded when Snake would be in a Nintendo game. All that considered, I could see the dedication.....
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:15:50 PM | message detail
As far as general reviewing went (ie gamerankings), MGS4 and Brawl's reviews were basically identical (and underwhelming), and MGS has typically been a series that has done *much* better with journalist reviews than SSB. The average review scores on this site give a bit more of an advantage to MGS4, but it's also got less than half of the total reviews in the first place.

Which brings us to the most basic point - Brawl should have double the playership of MGS4's ownership on this site, no questions asked. The fact that MGS4 can put up 48% on it is a clear indication of Brawl's weakness, but not necessarily MGS4 strength.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
trannyscience | Posted 1/16/2009 3:18:32 PM | message detail
I think it's a bit of both. it's tough to argue MGS's increase over the last couple years. MGS has a deadly franchise vote, something Smash may or may not have, we don't really know. Smash being stupid strong is still nothing more than speculation -- we've never seen it at the levels that we expect it. this is spinning a bad result sorta, but I think it should be said anyway.

remember, MGS2 got 46% or something on Melee in 2004.
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xyzzy
dethfdddddh | Posted 1/16/2009 3:18:38 PM | message detail
MGS 4=second strongest MGS game after MGS 1?
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:25:08 PM | message detail
Eh, MGS2 got 43% on Melee, and that was back when I didn't really respect Melee's strength - remember, Vice City was the one that ended up doing 46%. But ever since the boost, Smash has looked positively golden - expected to get 62%+ on MGS, turned everything it touched to gold, the power to take a character that nearly lost to Bowser and shoot him into the stratosphere. You said it yourself - SSB, at one point, looked like a bigger series than Zelda on this site.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:25:22 PM | message detail
Man, I'm staying on MGS4 and KH isn't. Something is wrong here. If, if this is Brawl's weakness, it no doubt has to do with the fact that Nintendo fans who care about games literally have no reason to come to GameFAQS right now. No big releases coming up, no recent games really worth mentioning, etc. If this is Brawl's weakness, then I wouldn't be surprised if MGS2 or 4 is above Melee, which has nowhere to go but down from 2004.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
HaRRicH | Posted 1/16/2009 3:26:47 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, MGS2 got a little over 43% on SSBM instead of 46% and this was before the big Nintendo Boost that we attributed to SSBM.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
red sox 777 | Posted 1/16/2009 3:27:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, I suppose even SSBM's strength is somewhat shadowy. While it was strong in 2004, it was not on the same level as CT/LTTP/SMB3 that year, and we've presumed it received a large boost with the Nintendo Boost. I think it's a pretty good presumption, but that's why a games contest after 5 years is going to be so exciting.
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Link he come to town
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:27:19 PM | message detail
If Melee is still at its 2k4 levels, I'll eat my TTS disc. This is Brawl's weakness, not Melee's - even with everyone being down on Nintendo, Melee aging like the finest of wines is more to counteract that and then some.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:27:43 PM | message detail
KH, Snake also benefited a ton from Brawl because pre-E32006 he was the second-most...unknown (feels painful to say that about a major series) Noble Niner by a large margin.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
trannyscience | Posted 1/16/2009 3:30:02 PM | message detail
my bad, I get those two mixed up. either way, Melee didn't exactly look like top 5 material in 2004, and let's be honest: if MGS4 was on a more popular system there would be no argument about what game is stronger.

Brawl should definitely be doing better here, but let's not take anything away from MGS4. this is a top 30 performance if you ask me.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 1/16/2009 3:31:30 PM | message detail
actually, it looks like the game contest look too long to come. we had a three year stretch from 2005-2007 where Nintendo was king and we never got a game contest in there. OOT's chances have probably passed and Melee's chances to be a top 5 game are probably gone, too.
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xyzzy
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:32:28 PM | message detail
It would have been really amusing to watch a massive Nintendo drop had we had a Games Contest last Winter and another one this Winter.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
red sox 777 | Posted 1/16/2009 3:33:48 PM | message detail
I'm grateful for that.....I've had enough contests with total Nintendo domination.
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Link he come to town
trannyscience | Posted 1/16/2009 3:34:52 PM | message detail
never a game contest though. 2009's contest probably resembles 2004 more than it does the Nintendo Invitational we've come to know. I would have liked to see how that went, if only for a debatable winner.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:35:44 PM | message detail
KH, Snake also benefited a ton from Brawl because pre-E32006 he was the second-most...unknown (feels painful to say that about a major series) Noble Niner by a large margin.

But think, then - what's the reason for that? Because Snake doesn't come from a big Nintendo/Square series - he (used to) derive all of his strength solely from MGS. Then we end up trying to shift without the clutch as we come full circle - the least played game on the least played system from the series that relegated Snake to that status is going toe-to-toe with the most-played game from the most-played system on the site, a game that is basically Nintendo fanservice incarnate.

I know I'm beating this into the ground... but this is a more shocking result than last contest's final to me (though maybe the parallels should have hinted to me, I don't know).
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:36:08 PM | message detail
You never know, maybe MGS4 fans really like Ocarina of Time for some reason.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/16/2009 3:37:52 PM | message detail
I know we're all down on Nintendo at the moment...but Link stills beats Cloud worse and worse every year. I think OoT>FF7 is still debatable, even if it's more of an upset than before.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:38:22 PM | message detail
As much as I hate to say they probably do - Link gained almost as much as Cloud from Snake's absence in the 2006 final, and that's with Snake having most of his Smash support already SFFed away from him in previous match.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 3:40:23 PM | message detail
I know we're all down on Nintendo at the moment...but Link stills beats Cloud worse and worse every year.

No way it's like that 2006 thrashing ever again - 2k8 was an aberration caused by Snake (and Crono, to a lesser extent). Even if it's more reluctant, those anti-champion/Nintendo votes have nowhere to go but to Cloud in a 1v1.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:43:01 PM | message detail
Snake 2006 and Snake 2008 are completely different beasts. Snake 2006 was torched by Cloud while Cloud was being held back by Sephiroth. Snake 2008 beat the tar out of Cloud (well, by expectations, 1500 or something is hardly a blowout) when replacing Sephiroth with Crono. That convinces me MGS4 was a true force.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
trannyscience | Posted 1/16/2009 3:44:48 PM | message detail
it is a Bad Idea to compare really popular characters to really popular games.

...i want to say more but don't feel like ranting, so I'll leave it at that.
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xyzzy
TRE Public Account | Posted 1/16/2009 3:48:56 PM | message detail
Keep in mind 2008 Round 6 Snake and 2008 Round 5 Snake are also completely different beasts. Snake went from edging out a LFF's Cloud to beating the tar out of him when Sephiroth left.
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Not even a spread of 197 points would allowed me to defeat FastFalcon05! Congrats on winning the Character Battle 7 Guru Contest!
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 1/16/2009 3:50:21 PM | message detail
TRE, shh...I'm trying to ignore the fact that Snake was wearing a Tetris piece-shaped box for that match.
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~War~ The Cream of Fake FastFalcon Fanboyism ~Hedgehog~
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/OrtonIsABagon.png
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/16/2009 4:05:53 PM | message detail
And, really, despite Nintendo's troubles the last two years, it hasn't been Square that's picked up the ball. Cloud started strong in 2007 but failed to place in the final, and then had probably his worst contest ever this time. 2008 was unquestionably Sephy's worst contest as well. Crono can probably beat Sonic and Mega Man now but that's more their fault than his. The near-elites (Vincent/Squall/Tifa/Sora) have looked markedly better than Nintendo's (Ganon/Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi) but that seems like more holding their ground than advancing. Auron's really the only guy clearly on his way up (45% on Ganondorf to beating Sonic comfortably), and even his achievement looks a little dimmer in light of what Kirby pulled off. (And of course there's ZACKFAQS but we have nothing to base him on.)

The characters that have benefited the most over the past two years have been those that are neither Square or Nintendo - Snake, obviously, along with much of the rest of the Metal Gear crew, Dante, Leon, Master Chief (in 2007, anyway), and Kratos stand out the most.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=rpguy96
Yesmar | Posted 1/16/2009 4:07:25 PM | message detail
Just a couple things I want to point something out about the Nintendo Boost:

A) Mario characters and Kirby were pretty much the only Nintendo characters whose boosts were anything close to dramatic in 2005. Samus did not appear to change at all, Ness is an enigma and the Zelda characters' boosts were mild (not much more than would be expected from a slight uptick in votals). I'm not sure Link or Ganondorf's* boosts were even bigger than the ones they received in 2004 after TP was announced.

B) Sonic/Knuckles also received noticable boosts in 2005 as well, while Yoshi's match against Laharl puts him at 03/04 levels.

C) Starting in 2006 the Mario characters/Kirby who boosted started falling back down to Earth. In some cases (Bowser) they already appeared back at their 2003 levels, and others like Kirby and Luigi weren't too far off. The X-Stats for this year don't represent that, since they're based off of a Samus at 45 on BL, which in my mind is clearly inaccurate. The Zelda characters stayed up more due to massive Twilight Princess hype.

D) By 2007, characters like Zelda, Ganondorf, Luigi, Bowser and Kirby were all definetly within range of their 2003 values. Only Mario and Link still appeared powerful, but I would attribute that to a resurgent Nintendo plus Twilight Princess on Link's part. Link and Mario both appeared somewhat close to their 2003 values this year, and Samus appears to dropped off as well.

In conclusion, the Nintendo Boost is not nearly as dramatic as people like to make it out to be sometimes.


*Ganondorf actually got a noticeable boost at the time but we didn't realize it, due to Link/Magus. Ganondorf/Alucard actually would have been quite close in 2003.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/16/2009 4:11:39 PM | message detail
Games Contest preview!

Metal Gear Solid vs. Brawl: Who you got?

Metal Gear Solid vs. Melee: Who you got?
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 1/16/2009 4:13:06 PM | message detail
I've supported FF7 over OOT the whole time (and even said that FF7 might beat OOT worse than last time), but it's still debatable. FF7 looked....well....underwhelming this past contest. Vincent lost to Crono, Sephiroth lost to Kirby, Cloud lost to Snake twice.....and none of them were able to do much with the ASV that was once a strong period for them. They have enough excuses that you can't really say they looked bad, but they didn't do anything to impress either. In particular, the weakening of FF7's ASV and strengthening of the dead zone makes me a bit uneasy.
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Link he come to town
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/16/2009 4:16:40 PM | message detail
I'm not trying to argue that Square's been on the upswing or anything, don't get me wrong here. But at what I view as the apex of Nintendo's popularity and one of Square's lower ones, Zelda prevailed over FF in a 51-49 affair. I would be tempted to take FF today. FF7 looks like a big favorite in light of that.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
RPGuy96 | Posted 1/16/2009 4:26:00 PM | message detail
But we all expected Final Fantasy to win that because FFVII was so far ahead of Ocarina and, aside from LttP > FFVI, everything else was in Final Fantasy's favour. Even if FF were to win a rematch I don't think that kills Ocarina's chances, because outside of the top two games in the series Final Fantasy had a lot going for it (FFX and FFVIII vs Majora's Mask and Wind Waker, primarily).

In any case, I think that matchup has changed a bit since we got Twilight Princess and FFXII, and the balance between those two would convince me to stay with Zelda.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=rpguy96
red sox 777 | Posted 1/16/2009 4:26:58 PM | message detail
About the Nintendo Boost:

Mario characters were indeed the greatest beneficiaries of it. Kirby got a boost too, but I think he was above Luigi in 2003/4- he did 5% better against Squall, and while Kirby lost to Alucard in 2003, Alucard was much stronger then than now, and Luigi did worse against Squall than Jill. Zelda characters seem to have gotten most of their boost in 2004, thanks to a combination of the Zelda Collector's Edition and TP hype. I don't think anyone really came down to earth until 2008 though.

Link and Samus were probably the characters least affected by the Boost, and they were the 2 strongest Nintendo characters prior to it (and are probably again the 2 strongest Nintendo characters now, indirectly of course). It's been brought up before that Samus is more popular than Mario outside the devoted Nintendo fanbase, but is less popular within it. Link is probably similar in that he's very popular outside the Nintendo fanbase, only he's ahead of Mario within the Ninty fanbase too.
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Link he come to town
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/16/2009 4:27:30 PM | message detail
To answer tranny's question from earlier.... 40k votes were submitted during the 6 week "B8 only" period. Since the noms hit the front page 24 hours ago, 8k new noms have been sent in.

So we're sitting at just over 48k noms right now, which isn't bad, but keep in mind there were over 200k sent in for the last Character Battle, so what we really need is a contest banner on the front there to get people's attention. Luckily, many B8ers are already working on their own image submissions for that!

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
ZFS | Posted 1/16/2009 4:29:24 PM | message detail
FFX vs. Brawl?

FFX, easy. Judging by today, going with Brawl here means that FFX would be equal, or lose, to MGS4. Can't say I buy that. This is less MGS4 and more Brawl being weaker than expected.

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 1/16/2009 4:35:00 PM | message detail
If FFX was able to just about match Melee I don't think it would have fallen to the level to lose to Brawl
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.