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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 651

Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/15/2009 4:53:00 PM | message detail
WE WANT THE DAMN BRACKET!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/15/2009 4:54:51 PM | message detail
Getting nominations on the front page would be a nice start.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/15/2009 4:55:33 PM | message detail
That's very true, I suppose.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/15/2009 4:59:05 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
ZFS | Posted 1/15/2009 4:59:50 PM | message detail
So let's talk more about this Brawl hurting the Smash Bros. series and allowing FFX to beat Melee !

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 5:00:26 PM | message detail
Sure, if you humor my ToS being a low midcarder talk.

That's what I thought.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/15/2009 5:01:44 PM | message detail
So let's talk more about this Brawl hurting the Smash Bros. series and allowing FFX to beat Melee !

So let's talk more about this Brawl saving the Smash Bros. series and allowing FFX to be massacred by Melee!
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/15/2009 5:02:53 PM | message detail
Oh wait, nominations ARE on the front page!

Barely noticeable, but they're there!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
paulg235 | Posted 1/15/2009 5:03:24 PM | message detail
So the nominations are finally on the front page. The question is now, for how long?

I'd say the rest of January.
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The Gamer In Me
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/15/2009 5:03:24 PM | message detail
OH HELL YES

then "WE WANT THE DAMN BRACKET!" is perfectly acceptable!
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KingBartz | Posted 1/15/2009 5:04:58 PM | message detail
tag
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FastFalcon05 owned me like a red-headed stepchild in the Guru Contest 2008.
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 5:05:28 PM | message detail
We are currently at 41069 nominations.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/15/2009 5:05:52 PM | message detail
So let's talk more about this Brawl hurting the Smash Bros. series and allowing FFX to beat Melee !

Add in that FF13 hype will do the same thing for FFX that Brawl hype did for SSB all these years... far as I can tell it's airtight logic!
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
ZFS | Posted 1/15/2009 5:07:09 PM | message detail
Well then I think that's settles it FFX > Melee it is!

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/15/2009 5:07:12 PM | message detail
And FFXII only helped people realize how much better FFX is!

...Nevermind that logic can apply to Melee here! That's not the point!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 1/15/2009 5:10:07 PM | message detail
FFX > Melee? Intriguing.....I really want to take this.....but I can't see any reasonable argument for it. Well, other than the classic BRAWL DEBOOST that explains everything.
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Link he come to town
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/15/2009 5:10:50 PM | message detail
We have a winner!

Come join us on the bandwagon!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 5:15:58 PM | message detail
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/10_01/TrainCrashPA_468x296.jpg

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Karma Hunter | Posted 1/15/2009 5:16:55 PM | message detail
Man as long as we can keep KP, Lopen and Aitch Emm off the train we should be wait DAMMIT
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 1/15/2009 5:19:42 PM | message detail
Rank the following games!

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Twilight Princess
Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Fallout 3
Super Mario Galaxy
Resident Evil 4
Super Smash Bros. Melee
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 5:24:06 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Final Fantasy X
Resident Evil 4
Twilight Princess
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Super Mario Galaxy
Fallout 3

Seeing Fallout 3 do well has affirmed my notions that RE4 is going to be a monster in these things.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/15/2009 5:25:35 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Resident Evil 4
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Twilight Princess
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Fallout 3
Super Mario Galaxy

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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n266/Mike_S_02/Baltimore_Ravens_Sig.jpg
ZFS | Posted 1/15/2009 5:25:42 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Twilight Princess
Final Fantasy X
Resident Evil 4
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Mario Galaxy
Metal Gear Solid 4
Fallout 3

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
red sox 777 | Posted 1/15/2009 5:31:42 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Final Fantasy X
Twilight Princess
Resident Evil 4
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Mario Galaxy
Fallout 3
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Link he come to town
paulg235 | Posted 1/15/2009 5:37:05 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess
Resident Evil 4
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Super Mario Galaxy
Fallout 3

I have a feeling the majority will side with Brawl simply because it's the more recent game. That and it is about to be 2008's GOTY.
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The Gamer In Me
MarioSuperstar | Posted 1/15/2009 5:42:50 PM | message detail
nah, i wouldnt judge melee off of a sequel here.

you all will end up like the plane that just crashed in Hudson River. >_>
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ffmasterjose | Posted 1/15/2009 5:42:52 PM | message detail
Hahaha. I do kind of tip my hat to Bacon. The front page message made me chuckle. So THAT was why those damn "Best of 2008" polls lasted so long. He was just stalling time for the next contest....>_>
Xcarvenger | Posted 1/15/2009 5:44:04 PM | message detail
I assume it's based on contest strength >_> (and isn't held in the next few months)

Twilight Princess
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Final Fantasy X
Resident Evil 4
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
Super Mario Galaxy
Fallout 3

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Chrono Cross Chrono Cross Chrono Cross. Nominate THE GAME!
For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 1/15/2009 5:56:54 PM | message detail
Brawl
Twilight Princess
MGS4
Mario Galaxy
Melee
FFX
Resident Evil 4
Fallout 3
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 1/15/2009 5:59:14 PM | message detail
Fallout 3

Who cares about the rest?
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Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3 Fallout 3
Ngamer64 | Posted 1/15/2009 6:08:33 PM | message detail
In order to get the Contest rolling faster I've put up a submission topic to create the official banner for the BGE. Hopefully one of our talented B8 artists will step up to the plate and deliver an excellent image! (KP, Zen, I'm looking in your direction...)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=47668561

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
hailEC | Posted 1/15/2009 6:41:46 PM | message detail
taggin dis topix
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all hail ec your lord and savior
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 6:42:49 PM | message detail
Damnit Ngamer, you do this right as I start to study.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Gaddswell | Posted 1/15/2009 7:41:14 PM | message detail
Whoa, noms are finally up!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/15/2009 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Haha, hey, another GotY!
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
ZFS | Posted 1/15/2009 9:00:55 PM | message detail
game contest spoilers

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
HaRRicH | Posted 1/15/2009 9:02:41 PM | message detail
game contest appetizer
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/15/2009 9:03:26 PM | message detail
Again?!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/15/2009 9:08:41 PM | message detail
so correct me if im wrong, but...

this is our first 1 on 1 match for poll of the day or contest since 2006, isn't it?
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n266/Mike_S_02/Baltimore_Ravens_Sig.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 1/15/2009 9:13:34 PM | message detail
For something to have a contest over, yes. There have been "What gender are you?" polls, but...yeah.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/15/2009 9:15:12 PM | message detail
well yeah first one anybody cares about
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n266/Mike_S_02/Baltimore_Ravens_Sig.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 1/15/2009 9:15:16 PM | message detail
Great idea, SBAllen! But MGS4 doesn't look good right now......
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Link he come to town
red sox 777 | Posted 1/15/2009 9:17:45 PM | message detail
It gained a full percent that update though. This upset train is still alive!
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Link he come to town
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/15/2009 9:20:55 PM | message detail
TBH, I'm surprised he even went THIS far. And what happened with Bowser? Ever since 2005, he's disappointed in nearlt every match he's been in. He got destroyed by the weakest Crono we've ever seen in 2006 - the same Crono that couldn't even get 75% on Captain Falcon. And just how many of us here have played F-Zero? I know I have.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/15/2009 9:22:03 PM | message detail
By "he", I meant SBAllen. And second, I meant nearly every match*
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
red sox 777 | Posted 1/15/2009 9:27:34 PM | message detail
74% on Captain Falcon isn't bad at all- Falcon got over 28% on Alucard, Diddy, and Kratos Aurion. Unless you think Crono ought to be way ahead of those three together. 2007 was the weakest Crono in my opinion.
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Link he come to town
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 9:31:10 PM | message detail
SBallen announces the dream Games Contest.

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/5711/fodderforcecd4.png

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 1/15/2009 9:32:17 PM | message detail
get tales outta there and put in something more obscure
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 1/15/2009 9:32:25 PM | message detail
do it bacon!
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
KamikazePotato | Posted 1/15/2009 9:35:45 PM | message detail
I was gonna put in Tales of Vesperia, but I didn't think anyone would recognize where it came from.

(not that most people here recognize the other two)

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.