GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 650
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:24:27 PM | message detail |
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Fallout 3 for Game Contest Champ! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 1/8/2009 9:27:56 PM | message detail |
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But, BUT... fans of Snake will be split somewhat between Brawl and
MGS4. A tiny split, sure, but it should still be there. Brawl of course
will be there to soak up all the Wii votes and MGS to cover the PS3,
but Fallout will be the only option for supporters of both the 360 and the PC. And with no RPG-ish option to hold it back... I'll agree with HM that MGS4 will be easily safe for second in the multi-game GotY poll, but the more I think about it the more I'm liking Fallout's chances when its down to just the three of them in the final GotY. --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| ZFS | Posted 1/8/2009 9:28:19 PM | message detail |
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No damage control here! I've been skeptical of GTAIV - and GTA in general - for a while now, in GTAIV's case from the time it got beat by MGS4. GTAIV's fan reception post-release wasn't that good. You'll find more people complaining about the game than you'll see praising, and the result is what we're seeing today. All that hype backfired on it. But I think GTA as a series has been on a decline here for a few years ago, and a disappointing entry isn't going to help that. I mean, it's closer to L4D and Rock Band 2 than it is Fallout 3. Kinda says it all. --- Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2009 9:29:25 PM | message detail |
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P4 with the surprise 100% hardcore fanbase let's do this --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2009 9:31:18 PM | message detail |
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On a side note, what was up with that board vote? I thought we were all on the same "F3=good, GTAIV=bleh" page. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:31:35 PM | message detail |
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Sure this is partly GTA4s decline... but I also this is showing Fallout
3 has some serious strength here. Beating a main GTA game, no matter
the decline, by over 12% in this poll is damn impressive --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/8/2009 9:32:43 PM | message detail |
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So for the hell of it, I made a PS3 wish list since I'll be getting the system soon: PS3 MGS4 Fallout 3 Dead Space Bioshock 1/2 Resident Evil 5 Street Fighter 4 Devil May Cry 4 Little Big Planet Final Fantasy 13 Plus I already own Disgaea 3. That's a pretty damn good set of games, price notwithstanding. That's like 1200 bucks worth of stuff. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, MGS: Portable Ops, Chrono Trigger, Mario Kart Wii |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:33:09 PM | message detail |
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From: UltimaterializerX | #007 ... --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2009 9:37:07 PM | message detail |
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Fallout 3 isn't going to threaten MGS4, let alone beat it. Not tomorrow, and not in the final voting. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2009 9:38:21 PM | message detail |
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On a side note, what was up with that board vote? I thought we were all on the same "F3=good, GTAIV=bleh" page. Bracket voters AGAIN --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2009 9:41:17 PM | message detail |
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God damnit wait for the bracket before your start voting like LOSERS B8 --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:41:26 PM | message detail |
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Fallout 3 isn't going to threaten MGS4, let alone beat it. Not tomorrow, and not in the final voting. oh man it sounds just like last year ...except MGS4 didn't have a hype problem. MGS4 should be safe, very safe. ask yourself this: would Fallout 3 get 50+% in that PS3 poll? I don't think so. MGS4's only "problem" is the PS3 userbase. if there aren't enough PS3 owners then it could theoretically be in a tough spot. but I higggggggghly doubt that happens. speaking of which, anyone think the PS3 could possibly top the Wii tomorrow? --- xyzzy |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:42:24 PM | message detail |
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...except MGS4 didn't have a hype problem. MGS4 should be safe, very safe. ask yourself this: would Fallout 3 get 50+% in that PS3 poll? I don't think so. You mean replacing mgs4 with it? I don't see why not. If it can get 30% against the FAR superior competition here... --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:42:59 PM | message detail |
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MGS4 would be pulling down 35ish percent here if not more. I don't doubt that for a second. --- xyzzy |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2009 9:43:34 PM | message detail |
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speaking of which, anyone think the PS3 could possibly top the Wii tomorrow? Depends. Does the GameFAQs PS3 ownership rate double in the next 24 hours? --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:44:28 PM | message detail |
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Wii beats PS3 simply due to Wii fanboys, even though PS3 had a far superior year --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:45:01 PM | message detail |
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Wii fans have gotten quite sparse over the last 8 months. if you want to talk about anti-hype, the Wii is where it's at. PS3's been on a nice roll with MGS4 and LBP. the Wii's had.... Wii Music and Animal Crossing. Wii probably tops it, but I expect a mighty disappointing performance tomorrow. --- xyzzy |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:45:35 PM | message detail |
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and that's without even talking about multiplatform stuff. --- xyzzy |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/8/2009 9:45:35 PM | message detail |
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Why ellipse me? I played the 360 for a solid week with my brother over
xmas, and I don't like ABXY being backwards. Plus I see these things
break every 5 minutes at work. The big knock on the PS3 is price and
lack of game library, except money is no issue for me and the game
library is about to get stacked to hell. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, MGS: Portable Ops, Chrono Trigger, Mario Kart Wii |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:46:25 PM | message detail |
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From: UltimaterializerX | #019 Because it just seemed kind of out of place --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/8/2009 9:47:40 PM | message detail |
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Until Mario Kart, I hadn't played my Wii since the spring. That system
sucks ass right now, and I'm beyond sick of Nintendo. The "catering to
non-gamers, fun for everyone" crap is undeniably bad for gaming. Screw
them. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, MGS: Portable Ops, Chrono Trigger, Mario Kart Wii |
| Gaddswell | Posted 1/8/2009 9:49:03 PM | message detail |
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Whoa, Fallout 3 > GTA4 by 12%. Certainly wasn't expecting anything this big! --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2009 9:49:22 PM | message detail |
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oh man it sounds just like last year You mean with regards to Halo 3/CoD4? I very much doubt it. MGS4 delivered where Halo 3 disappointed, and I think it has an edge over Fallout 3 in sales even when combining both console versions. Plus, I think it'll be hurt more by the competition. Gears will hurt it more, and Fable 2 might even sneak in there. I don't even consider Fallout that safe to beat Gears 2, personally. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:50:41 PM | message detail |
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MGS4 delivered where Halo 3 disappointed, and I think it has an edge
over Fallout 3 in sales even when combining both console versions. MGS4 sold 5 mil? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:50:41 PM | message detail |
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nah, Fallout 3 outsold MGS4. pretty sure of that. three platforms helps. I'm not worried about Gears 2 at all, really. --- xyzzy |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2009 9:52:48 PM | message detail |
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I'm getting my numbers from VGChartz, where MGS4 still has an edge (not counting the PC audience, but whatever). --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:53:55 PM | message detail |
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"Sales for Fallout 3 have thus far been very high, and figures suggest
that the game has outsold all previous Fallout games (including
spin-offs) in its first week.[82] Since its release in October, Fallout
3 has sold over 4.7 million units.[83]" from wiki --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| trannyscience | Posted 1/8/2009 9:54:24 PM | message detail |
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it shipped 4.7m. didn't sell. woo wikipedia --- xyzzy |
| TheOceIot | Posted 1/8/2009 9:54:25 PM | message detail |
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Get Ninja Gaiden Sigma when you get a PS3 Ulti, if you like DMC then you'll love Ninja Gaiden. --- What's quicker than an Ocelot? A FastFalcon http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3209/3085263758_3e703dfdc3.jpg?v=0 |
| TheOceIot | Posted 1/8/2009 9:55:12 PM | message detail |
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I don't think VGChartz has the numbers for the PC version of Fallout 3 where I imagine it sold quite well. --- What's quicker than an Ocelot? A FastFalcon http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3209/3085263758_3e703dfdc3.jpg?v=0 |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/8/2009 9:55:44 PM | message detail |
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Yep, its more of a PC game then a console game, and most youtube videos of it I see from the PC version. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/boobs.gif |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/8/2009 9:57:54 PM | message detail |
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Not out of place when discussing system preference and GOTY polls <_< --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, MGS: Portable Ops, Chrono Trigger, Mario Kart Wii |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/8/2009 11:07:40 PM | message detail |
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...I guess that GTAIV was never in contention for best multiplatform game after all. I'm not surprised. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 1/8/2009 11:12:16 PM | message detail |
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And I thought that another problem with the PS3 was that it didn't have that many exclusives? --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 1/9/2009 4:34:43 AM | message detail |
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Just looking at the poll turnouts, I'd say it's fairly representative of the level of interest in the console on this site. 1) Wii - 79423 2) PS3 - 74297 3) DS - 72651 4) Xbox 360 - 69863 5) PC - 60780 6) PSP - 57756 7) PS2 - 48534 --- Smurf. The cream of cream Fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 1/9/2009 8:19:48 AM | message detail |
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People definitely shouldn't give Fallout 3 the short shrift (it's
definitely *my* #3 pick for GotY). That being said... MGS4 would be a
tall order for it no matter what the circumstances, and it's got a ton
of options eating away at its diverse fanbase in the initial GotY. Some
of this is just people being unable to accept that GTA4 is the new Halo
3, though - MGS4 would curbstomp it now. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 1/9/2009 8:30:51 AM | message detail |
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Also I clearly have no idea what was so special about CoD4 maybe I'll find out one day --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2009 10:37:48 AM | message detail |
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I think I can say that I'll take all three of the main GTAs from last era over GTAIV indirectly and probably directly as well. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 1/9/2009 10:40:20 AM | message detail |
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GTA4 was a letdown, it was held in far higher regard among review
critics than the actual gaming public. I wouldn't be surprised if
Fallout bombed next round and today is GTA sucking rather than Fallout
dominating. --- Smurf. The cream of cream Fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2009 1:12:05 PM | message detail |
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GTA4 bombing or not, FO3 is still currently getting 29.08% against nine
other games with GTA4 being in a distant second -- COD4 got 30.02%
against seven other games with LFF'd-GH3 being in a distant second.
GTA4 bombing or not, FO3 is still holding L4D to 29.45%. GTA4 bombing
now or not, earlier this year it was right behind MGS4. GH/RB bombing
or not, them combined last year was expected to get 49.51% on CoD4 --
GH/RB this year is expected to currently get 34.27% on FO3. CoD5'ish
bombing or not, it's been topping online charts for awhile and followed
up on last year's runner-up...yet it's only getting 20.89%. Just look
at how much we're counting on other games bombing, is all. I still haven't really heard anybody else acknowledge that MGS4 may have been over-rated in the two June-GotY polls due to its recent release, either. Both were within a month of its release, afterall. It's fortunate in that it didn't have to face a bad backlash from some gamers like SSBB or especially GTA4, but its hype was huge as well...it's quite capable of being over-rated there. We also know how low the PS3-ownership is in comparison to the rest of the major systems here. With all of that combined, I'm still saying MGS4 takes second place in the overall-GotY...but for people not giving FO3 a chance against MGS4 in the final-GotY, that sounds crazy. That's the battle I can't wait to see now. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 1/9/2009 1:46:27 PM | message detail |
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Update! And with this, the final field of 9 is set. * Chrono Trigger - 27.70% on DS poll, 20127 votes (of 72651 total) * WoW: WotLK - 36.83% on PC poll, 22383 votes (of 60780 total) * Persona 4 - 44.53% on PS2 poll, 21612 votes (of 48534 total) * MGS4 - 53.56% on PS3 poll, 39796 votes (of 74297 total) * Crisis Core - 51.04% on PSP poll, 29476 votes (of 57756 total) * Brawl - 57.97% on Wii poll, 46045 votes (of 79423 total) * Gears of War 2 - 37.85% on 360 poll, 26440 votes (of 69863 total) * Mega Man 9 - 32.33% on Download poll, 20100 votes (of 62167 total) * Fallout 3 - 28.93% on Multi poll (currently), ? votes (of ? total) I'll comment on these later tonight. --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/9/2009 1:46:29 PM | message detail |
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I can't see how anyone can possibly try to discredit Fallout 3 after this performance. Its totally embaressing the competition. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 1/9/2009 3:05:15 PM | message detail |
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We should have a good contest for second place tomorrow. Fallout 3 is beating GTA4 much harder than MGS4 did, after all. --- Link he come to town |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/9/2009 3:14:02 PM | message detail |
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Well, Sunday...tomorrow will probably be System of the Year. Either
way, you're right, second place should be fun in the main two
GotY-polls. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| booomshakalaka | Posted 1/9/2009 4:45:57 PM | message detail |
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so now that bacon's done with his month and a half off, are we finally going to get noms on the front page? --- The Monster Jam! |
| charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2009 10:05:02 PM | message detail |
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So Warhammer is the third favourite MMORPG behind WoW and FFXI? >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/9/2009 10:09:50 PM | message detail |
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among real mmorpgs yes i dont count that free crap with 2d graphics that only non mmorpg players play as real mmorpgs --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/9/2009 10:21:47 PM | message detail |
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oh and btw wow rising fast, wonder how high it can get... gained 1% in last 4 updates --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 1/9/2009 10:24:29 PM | message detail |
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So......does this mean we'll get to see SFF beyond even that of Link/Ganon between World of Warcraft and Wrath of the Lich King? --- Link he come to town |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 1/9/2009 10:25:29 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
