GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 649
| MartrebnoR | Posted 12/31/2008 9:13:11 PM | message detail |
|
GOTY Madness ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- This is not a signature. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 12/31/2008 10:26:09 PM | message detail |
|
MGS4 for GOAT! --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| swirIdude | Posted 12/31/2008 10:47:56 PM | message detail |
|
a shame CT came out this year, I hoped TWEWY would get some much deserved respect. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 Looking for a new sig. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/31/2008 10:48:56 PM | message detail |
|
I still think ports shouldnt be eligible to be goty unless totally remade aka FF4 DS --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/31/2008 10:50:06 PM | message detail |
|
Btw, fun fact: http://www.gamespot.com/best-of/game-of-the-year/index.html?page=2 TWEWY finished 5th among 10 games on Gamespots Game of the year poll --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 12/31/2008 11:13:21 PM | message detail |
|
TWEWY is doing pretty good. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 1/1/2009 9:26:09 AM | message detail |
|
I doubt TWEWY would've won had CT not been here. Then FFIV would've won! --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/1/2009 9:31:50 AM | message detail |
|
Damn, I'm agreeing with Albion. Actually there's no way TWEWY isn't getting hurt by both FFIV and CT. Probably not as much as they're hurting eachother, but the damage should still be quite significant. TWEWY's a near lock for the games contest, so here's hoping it does well, although strict seeding may destroy that. Hopefully Allen will not use the same style of seeds CJayC used and stick with the method he used for the four way contests, existant but randomised and hidden seed placements. Much better. On a related but different matter, I think the reason the SMW and LttP ports didn't do as well as Chrono Trigger is doing here is because of the presence of Metroid Fusion-a new game that SFF'd them both, not to mention some with eachother. Actually that might be happening here too, but TWEWY's no Metroid. Then again, that poll WAS in 2002, so maybe people's reactions to ports have changed. --- Under guru champ, FastFalcon related tyranny since 20/11/08. Mother 3. That is all. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 1/1/2009 9:36:23 AM | message detail |
|
Actually there's no way TWEWY isn't getting hurt by both FFIV and
CT. Probably not as much as they're hurting eachother, but the damage
should still be quite significant. I doubt it's very significant. Old School and New School Square have essentially proven that they barely affect one another. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| Yesmar | Posted 1/1/2009 9:41:52 AM | message detail |
|
Kirby with the comeback! It's been stalling Ecclessia since I woke up,
and in the last half hour or so, it's cut off around 30 votes out of
~350! --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:44:12 AM | message detail |
|
So CT has really held its groudn with percentage. Looking forward to see how it does later on in the day though --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| BDawg | Posted 1/1/2009 9:48:45 AM | message detail |
|
I guess three SE games trouncing the competition is fine in this case.
Plus the one getting spanked the worst is about the only one I don't
have or want. And look at that epic battle between Layton and Ruin for
uhhhh...6th? --- Should I start running now? |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 1/1/2009 9:55:05 AM | message detail |
|
I doubt it's very significant. Old School and New School Square have essentially proven that they barely affect one another. I'm not sure if you can count them as Old School and New School when they all came out the same year for the same platform... --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 1/1/2009 10:14:41 AM | message detail |
|
Now that the poll has gone for a while, FFIV has made some great gains
looking respectable against TWEWY, Castlevania has taken the lead over
Kirby and what's more surprising is that Layton has taken a slight lead
over Advance Wars, though that could change throughout the day. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| transience | Posted 1/1/2009 10:16:47 AM | message detail |
|
time for an epic FF4 comeback Kirby looks to be all early vote, just like the character. can't even come back 300 votes on Castlevania in the day, tsk tsk. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| KingBartz | Posted 1/1/2009 10:31:43 AM | message detail |
|
I'm actually a little surprised Ecclesia isn't doing a little better. I
was thinking it would be well over 10% at this time. It all goes down
from here. --- FastFalcon05 owned me like a red-headed stepchild in the Guru Contest 2008. |
| TestIcicles | Posted 1/1/2009 10:45:07 AM | message detail |
|
bacon sucks --- mmm test icicles |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 1/1/2009 11:31:23 AM | message detail |
|
I'm not sure if you can count them as Old School and New School when they all came out the same year for the same platform... How much of CT's votes do you think are coming from CT fans who've never played the port? This game isn't going to change CT's trends either (at least until it gets released in Europe, and we'll have to see how it does there). --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 1/1/2009 11:49:29 AM | message detail |
|
Pretty much everyone here in Europe who cares about RPGs have played
Chrono Trigger anyway, it's not like we haven't been able to download
it for the last 13 years or anything. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me |
| Mr3790 | Posted 1/1/2009 11:53:05 AM | message detail |
|
CT has a rather big lead on everything else. That's cool! --- AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462 GENO WHIRL! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 12:48:45 PM | message detail |
|
So, a new concern just came up that I remembered: the Game of the Century (so far) poll that was introduced last year. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2995 FFX won big last year. If SSBB wins this year, expect FFX to win by even more this year...though SSBB in a SFF-fest against LoZ:TP, LoZ:WW, SMG, and MP should be fun. Trying to pick apart the LFF'd pieces and compare them to FFX/RE4 will be fun too. Meanwhile, if MGS4 somehow pulls off the upset, I wonder just how much advantage it could take in such a poll...probably a close second. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| transience | Posted 1/1/2009 12:50:16 PM | message detail |
|
it's still interesting - Brawl vs. Nintendo competition that's a bit more quantifiable. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 1:04:12 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| transience | Posted 1/1/2009 1:05:06 PM | message detail |
|
FFX is topping TP, since TP probably beats FFX given triple Nintendo representation. Melee? I don't know. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| transience | Posted 1/1/2009 1:05:29 PM | message detail |
|
dammit --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 1:05:54 PM | message detail |
|
True enough. Assuming such a poll is done this year and SSBB wins GotY, what would SSBB have to do in order to "prove" to you that it would beat SSBM in a contest? How about "just" beating FFX in a contest? I think the majority of us assume one of them if not both, but what would it take to be able to say it based on the poll's numbers? --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| Redtooth | Posted 1/1/2009 1:06:44 PM | message detail |
|
I'm just glad AW is finally taking back a lead against Layton. Just sad it ever fell below it. =( --- I thought I'd never change, but FastFalcon beat me into shape! |
| transience | Posted 1/1/2009 1:07:04 PM | message detail |
|
well, Melee isn't really about strength at all. it's dependent on the fanbase and who they side with. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 1/1/2009 1:19:00 PM | message detail |
|
lets go MGS4, Persona 3/4, Brawl, or Chrono Trigger --- The Straight Up G The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 1:39:31 PM | message detail |
|
Point taken, but I didn't know if a certain number in such a poll would sway some people or not. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| ZFS | Posted 1/1/2009 3:19:58 PM | message detail |
|
Whoa, FFIV managed to do well today. Nice show! --- Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men. And ladies. And ladies who dress like men. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 3:35:20 PM | message detail |
|
am i seeing things or did CT actually gain in percentage over the day vote? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 1/1/2009 4:09:13 PM | message detail |
|
This isn't a Games Contest situation. Don't treat it that way. Besides, none of these games should be day vote machines. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| red sox 777 | Posted 1/1/2009 6:02:41 PM | message detail |
|
I'm glad to see Chrono Trigger winning today. Agreed that there is very little that can be drawn from this. --- Link he come to town |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 1/1/2009 6:03:41 PM | message detail |
|
Is there even going to be an interesting GOTY poll before we get to the final two polls? Multiplatform between GTA IV and Fallout 3, maybe. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 1/1/2009 8:08:46 PM | message detail |
|
PS2 because I have no idea on who should be the favourite. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 8:40:01 PM | message detail |
|
From: LeonhartFour | #035 360 --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 1/1/2009 9:00:40 PM | message detail |
|
Didn't expect WoW to be included in this poll. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:01:05 PM | message detail |
|
well no mmo poll --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:01:43 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 9:01:44 PM | message detail |
|
I didn't either. Glad SB dropped the MMORPG-thing. Spore/WotLK should be good..... --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 1/1/2009 9:02:48 PM | message detail |
|
BEST OF 2008: Best PC Game Audiosurf 10.67% 24 Crysis Warhead 10.67% 24 Neverwinter Nights 2: Storm of Zehir 3.11% 7 Sam & Max: Season 2 4.44% 10 Sins of a Solar Empire 8% 18 Spore 30.22% 68 Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning 2.67% 6 World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King 30.22% 68 TOTAL VOTES 225 double ties and lol spore --- Chrono Cross Chrono Cross Chrono Cross. Nominate THE GAME! For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:03:56 PM | message detail |
|
and spore is dead next --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| ZFS | Posted 1/1/2009 9:07:02 PM | message detail |
|
WoW vs. Spore --- Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men. And ladies. And ladies who dress like men. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:10:46 PM | message detail |
|
hmm Wow for 40%? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 9:12:53 PM | message detail |
|
Big jump for WoW...it was probably an anti-WoW sentiment for the first five minutes. Still, for Spore to ever even be in contention with WoW isn't a very good sign. Can't wait to see how it does in the overall-GotY, because I doubt it's much better than last year. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 1/1/2009 9:14:49 PM | message detail |
|
wow in general has like the worst board vote outside of fF7. Just look
at arthas and Ike.. Ike was massacering him with board vote then Arthas
won by over 1000 votes --- http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 is awesome. |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 1/1/2009 9:15:49 PM | message detail |
|
Well hey, Audiosurf is actually in 3rd place and it's like...a mini-game. >_> --- caps |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 1/1/2009 9:16:23 PM | message detail |
|
What the junk, Spore can't even keep up with the most hated game on the
site despite befitting from the MMO LFF. That's pretty eww. On the plus side, CT actually held up better than I was expecting and finished with a fairly respectable showing there. I'd still have to call it the underdog against GTA4 (or whatever else wins the Multi poll), but on the other hand once FF4 is out of the picture maybe CT will be able to shift into the next gear. --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 1/1/2009 9:16:55 PM | message detail |
|
Don't forget to put an asterisk beside Arthas's victory there. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
