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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 648

Xuxon | Posted 12/13/2008 7:37:06 PM | message detail
Oh and ALttP > Mario 3 obviously.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 7:38:11 PM | message detail
Zelda 1
Super Mario World
Super Mario 64
Zelda: Majora's Mask
Super Mario Bros.
Zelda: Wind Waker
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Xuxon | Posted 12/13/2008 7:40:40 PM | message detail
That is one messed up looking order, red sox.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Always bet on Snake. I learned this from our guru, FastFalcon05.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 7:47:12 PM | message detail
Well I have a much higher opinion of Zelda 1 than most people, it seems. I completely disagree with the idea that it overperformed on SMB3- that's the Mario game I'd expect to fare the best in SFF against it. And I see no reason why it wouldn't put up a similar performance today....why would franchise voting matter less now than in 2004? It could just as easily matter more. And it's not like Zelda 1 is just franchise voting either- it finished in #30 on the list, well ahead of WW and MM, only 7 down from SMW.

As for putting Wind Waker last, I have a feeling it isn't as strong as it was in 2004. It was the newest game in Gamefaqs's #1 (maybe #2 at the time) series in 2004. And even if it is.....it got 55% on Metroid Prime that year. Hardly impressive. Almost beating Starcraft becomes less impressive when you compare to the Halo match instead of the SSBM match.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
transience | Posted 12/13/2008 7:47:12 PM | message detail
heh, red sox is the Lopen of Games.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 7:51:16 PM | message detail
Lopen of games? But I've only called like 2 upsets no one is taking....Zelda 1 and RBY. Ok then, might as well add CT for champion to that list- a real longshot worthy of Lopen!
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
transience | Posted 12/13/2008 7:52:20 PM | message detail
those are two pretty big calls though.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
ZFS | Posted 12/13/2008 7:55:01 PM | message detail
As far as rankings go:

Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
Wind Waker
Majora's Mask
Super Mario Bros.
Zelda 1

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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/13/2008 8:05:06 PM | message detail
Zelda 1 > Mario World really wouldn't surprise me. I wouldn't take it, but I think ZeldaFEAR resonates with me much more on the games side of the equation than the characters.
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transience | Posted 12/13/2008 8:10:03 PM | message detail
I kinda agree with you. that's why the idea of three Mario games over three Zelda games scares me.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:11:25 PM | message detail
I'd consider Zelda > Super Mario 64 long and hard... but > SMW? Seems like suicide to me!

... and you will not succeed Red Sox...! Just give me a bracket, I'll make you small time !!
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:11:36 PM | message detail
Hmm.

World > 64 > Majora > Wind Waker > Zelda 1 > Mario 1
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Xuxon | Posted 12/13/2008 8:12:03 PM | message detail
Well, I guess LoZ > SMW wouldn't completely surprise me (though any of those beating 64 is just nonsense). What does surprise me is seeing someone actually pick it!
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2008 8:13:59 PM | message detail
It'd shock me if Zelda 1 could even compete with Mario World. I'd expect it to do a little better than it did against Mario 3.

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Xuxon | Posted 12/13/2008 8:14:34 PM | message detail
I'd consider Zelda > Super Mario 64 long and hard... but > SMW? Seems like suicide to me!

Your confidence is in the wrong Mario game. 64 is more comparable to Mario 3 than any of these games.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Always bet on Snake. I learned this from our guru, FastFalcon05.
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:15:22 PM | message detail
I would say

Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
Majora's Mask
Wind Waker
Zelda 1
Super Mario Bros.

With 64/World being too close to call, MM not being too far back, WW being a little bit behind MM (as others have said I think it was performing near peak strength in '04 and will be back of that now thanks to TP stealing its thunder), and then Zelda 1/Mario 1 again being too close to call. You'd imagine the Zelda win as a easy pick given how close it came against Mario 3, but I still fear Mario 1's "legendary" or "important" or "historic" or whatever you want to call it vote too much to make that a sure thing.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:15:35 PM | message detail
64 ain't got ****.

Screw that game.
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transience | Posted 12/13/2008 8:15:43 PM | message detail
I think Zelda 1 vs. either of those games is suicide.. but I think moreso against World. I just can't see it topping a universally liked game like World -- I'm not sure if 64 is the same way.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:16:08 PM | message detail
Thing is, a little better than against Mario 3 is almost competing with Mario World. What did it get, 43, 44%? LoZ shouldn't be underestimated, I agree. It's not all franchise voting, people really liked that game. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see it be the #3 Zelda game.
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:17:21 PM | message detail
If Z1 gets a pic with Blue Wizzrobes, it's screwed.
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2008 8:18:30 PM | message detail
Let's attach a number to that, then. "A little better" to me is SMW winning with 55%+, if not a bigger win. This is one of those things where saying "Look at what it did against Mario 3 in 2004!" just doesn't fly with me. It's much more simple - which of these games is more popular, Super Mario World or the original Zelda? It's not one I have to think about.

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transience | Posted 12/13/2008 8:20:19 PM | message detail
yep, what HM said. I said this last topic -- this stuff just isn't linear. you can't go down the line like that.

I don't think the original Zelda holds up for modern gamers, not like Mario 3. I know how you'll respond to this -- look at what it did against Mario 3! -- but I don't think it could improve on that by much, if at all.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:20:26 PM | message detail
Your confidence is in the wrong Mario game. 64 is more comparable to Mario 3 than any of these games.

I have a hard time having confidence in the game that got quadrupled by another Zelda game. Not sure what is so nonsensical about it!
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:25:15 PM | message detail
It's telling I think that Zelda 1 got #30 on the list and Final Fantasy 1 got #76. Take from that what you will. In fact, here are the orders for the Big 3:

The Legend of Zelda:

2. Ocarina of Time
4. A Link to the Past
30. The Legend of Zelda
45. Wind Waker
46. Majora's Mask

Final Fantasy

1. Final Fantasy VII
10. Final Fantasy VI
12. Final Fantasy X
17. Final Fantasy VIII
19. Final Fantasy Tactics
42. Final Fantasy IX
50. Final Fantasy IV
76. Final Fantasy
89. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance

Super Mario Bros.

5. Super Mario Bros. 3
13. Super Mario 64
22. Super Mario Bros.
23. Super Mario World
26. Super Mario RPG
82. Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island

It's surprising for me that Zelda had the fewest games on the top 100, if you count SMRPG and Yoshi's Island under SMB.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:26:30 PM | message detail
Oh don't get me wrong, I take SMW > LoZ pretty confidently, but I hardly think an upset is out of the question, that's all I'm saying. And not even from a purely stats viewpoint either. I'm not entirely sold that SMW is leagues ahead of LoZ in popularity. I'd say this topic in general tends to underestimate the slugger NES games. And relative to their system, I'd say LoZ was the more popular game, which might be a kicker.

Mostly just playing devil's advocate though... don't think LoZ can break 46% there. But yeah, it's definitely not a lock.
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:27:28 PM | message detail
It's pretty telling that FF got 5 games in the top 20, and Zelda's 3rd game is all the way down at 30th. Even Mario got 5 games in there before Zelda 1 comes in at 30th.

By the way, FFTA vs. NSMB: Who you got?
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Xuxon | Posted 12/13/2008 8:28:00 PM | message detail
I have a hard time having confidence in the game that got quadrupled by another Zelda game. Not sure what is so nonsensical about it!

Only tripled, thank you very much. I don't think it's nonsensical that people would take SMW over Mario 64, in fact I'd expect SMW to be the favorite. Actually, I'm already starting to doubt it just a teensy bit. But only that much.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Always bet on Snake. I learned this from our guru, FastFalcon05.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:28:42 PM | message detail
Gotta go NSMB there. NSMB may have gotten a lukewarm reception, but it wouldn't almost lose to Fire Emblem.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/13/2008 8:28:44 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask is a Top Ten game for me. Wind Waker has the best incarnations of any Link, Zelda, or Ganondorf (the extreme latter I find somewhat likable) as far as I'm concerned.

I would be floored beyond flooring if Zelda 1 lost to either of them. I'd expect something like CT > OoT sooner.
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ZFS | Posted 12/13/2008 8:29:17 PM | message detail
And while I wouldn't argue higher vote totals hurting Zelda games, I would say that with some 40,000 more votes we're bound to have per match, you're going to have a far more 'mainstream' pool of voters than you had in 2004. I think Mario in particular would benefit from that than anything else - Mario World is much bigger all around than Zelda 1. Mario being the biggest beneficiary of the Nintendo shift is something to throw out there as well, and one reason why I think Mario 3 today would beat Zelda 1 with an easy 60%+ and reverse the result on Chrono Trigger.

Obviously, that's not all exclusive to Mario, but there's plenty of reason to believe there's been plenty of shifting around these past five years. The 2004 contest ain't going to be worth much of anything as far as predicting this next contest.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:30:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, looking at that list, I still can hardly believe Zelda won the Series Contest over FF. I mean, FFIX beat Wind Waker and Majora's Mask, and FFTA appeared on the list. And definitely give me NSMB. I don't know how FFTA managed a third of the vote against FFX, but I really cannot see it having enough strength to beat NSMB.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:30:18 PM | message detail
The thing more surprising to me is that FFVIII is so high and Final Fantasy is lower than FFIV and FFIX.

Am I the only one that'd at least consider FF over FFVIII?
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:30:42 PM | message detail
Probably!
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
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transience | Posted 12/13/2008 8:31:04 PM | message detail
nominate Zelda 1
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:31:04 PM | message detail
Plus, it's pretty interesting that the Mario series (at least indirectly) is pretty close to the Zelda series despite OoT being well above any Mario game and LttP being stronger than any of them as well. Plus, there's the possibility of TP being stronger than any except Mario 3.

Explain that to me.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 12/13/2008 8:31:22 PM | message detail
Looking at that list, I still don't understand how Final Fantasy lost in the series contest. And if FFVII wins again, I don't think I ever will.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
MetricTrout | Posted 12/13/2008 8:31:27 PM | message detail
It's surprising for me that Zelda had the fewest games on the top 100, if you count SMRPG and Yoshi's Island under SMB.

Fewer Zelda games exist.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:32:05 PM | message detail
That being said, taking info off the top 100 list isn't the best thing to do. That thing inflates what games would actually do in a contest because you don't need to worry about people anti-voting and stuff like that. A top 100 list only accounts for how many people like a game, not how many people dislike it.
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/13/2008 8:32:25 PM | message detail
nominate Zelda 1

ew nominating Zelda games let me think about this
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:32:53 PM | message detail
Gotta go NSMB there. NSMB may have gotten a lukewarm reception, but it wouldn't almost lose to Fire Emblem.

FFTA didn't come anywhere close to losing to FE, so I don't know what your point is!

Am I the only one that'd at least consider FF over FFVIII?

I know you're trying to prove you're crazier than red sox, but come on, man!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:33:56 PM | message detail
Zelda 1 is the only Zelda game I'd consider nominating... I think we need as many NES sluggers as we can get because they'll be hard to call. But I still can't quite bring myself to do it.
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:34:24 PM | message detail
...huh. Why did I think that match was close. Weird.

Still taking NSMB there!
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:34:45 PM | message detail
Remember that The List is primarily an indicator of nomination strength rather than actual strength, and a quick look at the 2004 games bracket confirms that FF had much, much more nomination power than LoZ.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:35:35 PM | message detail
...huh. Why did I think that match was close. Weird.

Maybe you were thinking of Fire Emblem/Silent Hill!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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Lopen | Posted 12/13/2008 8:35:40 PM | message detail
I know you're trying to prove you're crazier than red sox, but come on, man!

Shut it, Squallboy !!

(Red Mage > Squall fa life)
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/13/2008 8:36:05 PM | message detail
Mainstream voters? Well, if you believe mainstream voters are aligned with the day vote....Zelda 1 won the day vote against SMB3. It got 42.31% from 3 AM to 3 PM and 44.32% from the start of the ASV to the end.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
transience | Posted 12/13/2008 8:36:50 PM | message detail
FF1 isn't touching FF8.

and are we really using the list to prove FF > Zelda? this isn't 2006! we shouldn't be using the list to prove much of anything anymore. not only is it a different format but it's way outdated now.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
ZFS | Posted 12/13/2008 8:37:46 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2592

ff1 over other ff games whoops !

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2008 8:37:59 PM | message detail
and are we really using the list to prove FF > Zelda?

Whoo, Series Contest!

Bah, Zelda being so top heavy!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/13/2008 8:38:29 PM | message detail
You really can't take the Series Contest at face value - SMB had a pretty obvious bandwagon going on against FF. It's a miracle FF lost to Zelda by as little as it did, especially looking at the post-contest poll.

Speaking of which, anti-champ votes are pretty much the one thing that gives me worry about FF7. No matter what happens, it still seems to be perceived the king on this site. OoT could be weaker against indirect, neutral entities and still prevail if the "anti-repeat" sentiment were high enough.

But I have a hard time seeing the OoT: FF7 ratio exceeding the Zelda: FF ratio, and there's only so much wiggle room OoT has between there before losing.
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