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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 647

red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2008 3:20:24 PM | message detail
Eh, a first round of 2 months is much too long. I wouldn't be interested in at least a third of the games in a 128 game bracket anyway.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 3:24:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, with 64 games, there might be a few snubs, but with 128 games, you're going to end up with a lot of games no one cares about.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 3:26:37 PM | message detail
the first round lasting as long as an entire contest is too much. I'd be down with 128 if we got it, but really, you're just tossing lesser games into the bracket for the sake of extending the thing. if board 8ers would get tired of it, imagine regular people.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 12/12/2008 3:30:11 PM | message detail
64 games is the way to go. We may miss out on a few things, but the bracket isn't going to be hurting. 128 is a bit overboard, I think.

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http://i36.tinypic.com/14j2srq.gif
Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/12/2008 3:39:16 PM | message detail
I don't think there would be a problem finding 128 decent games. Someone (RPGuy?) made a pretty good bracket of 64 games that weren't in the first games contest a couple years ago, and there's been lots more released since then.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
As is FastFalcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 3:41:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, but what are the odds that those 128 decent games make it? The more games you let in the contest, the more fodder you're going to get. And really, odds are that you're going to get nearly every game you want to have in a 64 game bracket.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/12/2008 3:43:46 PM | message detail
I have a 128 game bracket kicking around (which I really like and I hope we get, by the way), but it wasn't me who made a 64 new game bracket.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=rpguy96
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 3:43:53 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_37.png

hmmmm
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 3:45:16 PM | message detail
RE4
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/12/2008 3:50:30 PM | message detail
RE4 easily

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 3:59:41 PM | message detail
No franchise-voting for Zelda?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 4:01:09 PM | message detail
that one's easy. Majora's Mask is not really a notable title, not like RE4 is.
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xyzzy
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 4:06:41 PM | message detail
alright alright

how about this?

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_41.png
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/12/2008 4:06:55 PM | message detail
I'm taking MM and not giving it a second thought.

Franchise voting nearly had FFT take out MGS. That is a very weak game vs a strong game, and the weak game should have won. Yes, I realize RE 4 will probably be a 1 seed, and it would not matter. Franchise voting for a very popular Zelda game is going to be taking out nearly everything in the bracket. I'll be voting RE 4 myself though.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/12/2008 4:07:15 PM | message detail
Oregon Trail
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/12/2008 4:09:36 PM | message detail
also easy in Rock Band's favor. I imagine that something like Duck Hunt would be leagues above Oregon Trail (even Minesweeper would be...though Minesweeper vs. Rock Band could be an amusing match), and I think I'd take Rock Band over Duck Hunt without hesitation. Okami's still my favorite Rock Band opponent.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
As is FastFalcon
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/12/2008 4:09:53 PM | message detail
...






Rock Band. I think.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/12/2008 4:11:15 PM | message detail
Let's just concentrate on getting this 64 game 1v1 bracket off the ground for now. After that's wrapped up and we can look back with some hindsight we can decide what the best option for next time would be.

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 4:13:32 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_42.png

I just did that because it looks cool. Gonna go work on making a minesweeper pic. Does it even have box art?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 4:26:46 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_43.png
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 4:30:38 PM | message detail
No franchise-voting for Zelda?

It won't beat everything.

Halo would destroy Minesweeper. Honestly, just because everyone knows what it is doesn't mean everyone likes it. I doubt very many people like it enough for it to be anything other than fodder. It's another Pong waiting to happen: Beat anything unknown, get destroyed by anything known.

And then there's this:

Poll 2836 (08/07/07)
What's your favorite built-in Windows game?

25939 31.38% 3D Pinball: Space Cadet
3311 4.01% Chess Titans
4053 4.90% FreeCell
3870 4.68% Hearts
16172 19.57% Minesweeper
7062 8.54% Spider Solitaire
22249 26.92% Solitaire

TOTAL VOTES: 82656
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2008 4:35:24 PM | message detail
If MM is stronger than Zelda 1, which got 43% on SMB3, then yes it can beat RE4. How much do you think RE4 gets on Mario 3? On Mario 64/World, which should be a good deal below 3? Of course MM is quite possibly (probably) not as strong as Zelda 1, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it beat RE4.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 4:37:21 PM | message detail
Taking head-to-head comparisons in the Games Contest isn't always reliable because franchise voting DOES exist. I honestly wouldn't expect Zelda 1 to beat Mario World either, and I don't know if it'd even do that much better.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2008 5:36:51 PM | message detail

From: Ngamer64 | #418
Let's just concentrate on getting this 64 game 1v1 bracket off the ground for now. After that's wrapped up and we can look back with some hindsight we can decide what the best option for next time would be.



Uh, what? We might have to wait another 4 years for another game contest, so why just "Not care" about how it goes this time? I still think that 128 games, 4 way IS the way to go, because with how its been 128 noms the last couple years (plus 15 noms again shows that Bacon is at least leaning towards 128 or he'd have alot of leftover noms) means that 64 just isn't really enough. Theres too many good games that would be left out with only 64, especially with how dominated a 64 game contest would be by the big 3 series. Even 127 days of matches would be better then 1v1 64 games.

And without how quickly Bacon is rolling this new contest out, I'm thinking he isn't getting the hits he likes when its not contest season. So why not have contest season more then half of the year, anyway? So it would be in his best interests to have it go on as long as possible I would think
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2008 5:37:59 PM | message detail
Indeed it does exist, which is why we should by no means by calling RE4, a game that lost to FFX easily in the Game of the Century poll, a lock over a Zelda game. If Zelda 1 or MM can get franchise voted against Mario 3, they can get franchise voted against RE4.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2008 5:39:58 PM | message detail
128 games/characters are not at all needed- we never needed 128 characters in the first place. Our best contests have been the ones closest to the original pure format. As I said, I wouldn't be interested in seeing at least 1/3 of the games we'd see in a 128 game bracket- imagine Tales of Symphonia and Tales of Vesperia making the bracket.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2008 5:40:57 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #426imagine Tales of Symphonia and Tales of Vesperia making the bracket.



And? I'd love to see those 2 make it AND Abyss, but I'm a Tales fan anyway.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 5:51:54 PM | message detail
I make the "x got [insert high percent] on y, how much do you think [game z] that's supposedly stronger than x would get" argument all the time, but it's more to demonstrate a point rather than to make a solid argument. you can make this argument ENDLESSLY about some stuff.

"Vice City got 46% on 2004 SSBM, which was equal with FF10: if you take FF10 over RE4, you have to consider Vice City over it!"

"Final Fantasy 6 got 47 or something percent on LTTP. if you think FF10 is stronger, it could beat LTTP!"

you can do this endlessly. I'd rather follow what I believe is more accurate:

games simply aren't linear.

there's a reason the Game Contest stats are so jacked up, and it's not because of generational matches or SFF or whatever else you want to blame it on. games are just screwy. Sonic 2 got murdered by Mario World; is that SFF? if so, how far does it go? Metroid? Pokemon? all old games? all games with a name? each game has to be looked at on an individual basis, not in a "I got 40% on Mario 3, therefore I am strong!" manner.

you can throw all the old stats you want at me for Wind Waker, or for FF1, or for Starcraft, or for anything in 2004 and I'm going to tell you that it's all bunk. that contest doesn't matter anymore, the results outside of the top 5-10 are garbage and we can pretty much safely ignore them. it's like looking at 2002 stats.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2008 6:01:19 PM | message detail
Exactly, which is why it's absurd to call Resident Evil 4 a lock over a Zelda title.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 6:02:31 PM | message detail
you're welcome to take Zelda, but there is no way I would ever back a third tier Zelda over Resident Evil 4. same goes for a third-tier Final Fantasy or a third-tier Mario.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/12/2008 6:04:38 PM | message detail
imagine Tales of Symphonia and Tales of Vesperia making the bracket.

Better yet, imagine this happening in a 64 game contest. Oh wait, that will happen in a 64 game contest anyway, which is one of the reasons a 128 game contest would be better.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
As is FastFalcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2008 6:05:37 PM | message detail
With only 64, some great games will be knocked out. We might not even have a Sonic or Mega Man game in the field.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/12/2008 6:07:14 PM | message detail

From: trannyscience | #430
you're welcome to take Zelda, but there is no way I would ever back a third tier Zelda over Resident Evil 4. same goes for a third-tier Final Fantasy or a third-tier Mario.




MM is second tier, not third tier for popularity And I would take the second tier FF games (VI and VIII) over RE 4. Zelda being stronger than FF would get the same finish.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/12/2008 6:13:12 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #432
With only 64, some great games will be knocked out. We might not even have a Sonic or Mega Man game in the field.




And with 128 games in a 4 way FF VII and OoT are going to get screwed over by SFF when they meet each other.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/12/2008 6:21:56 PM | message detail
I have no idea where you got the idea that I'm saying to "not care" about the format. I'm saying we should care quite a bit, and do what we can to get the correct Contest (1v1 64) in place for this season. Then, after seeing how those 63 matches play out, we'll be in a much better position to say if the field needs expanding, if we need to mix things up with 4 ways, if two matches a day would be a better solution, etc.

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:26:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, I agree with tran. Games appear to be much less likely to be consistent from round to round. Don't ask me why that is, but that just appears to be the case unless you're like a top 5 or 6 game.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 6:29:13 PM | message detail
the same goes for the Series Contest. does anybody actually believe those stats outside of the top 3?
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:31:34 PM | message detail
Well, I believe Smash Bros. probably beats the rest of them. Maybe Metal Gear gives it a fight, but who knows.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 6:31:43 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:32:10 PM | message detail
Shaq-Fu vs. Michael Jordan: Chaos in the Windy City!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/12/2008 6:32:14 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_44.png

*sigh*
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/12/2008 6:32:48 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem > GTA, WarCraft, Metroid, and Pokemon.

I see no problem here, no problem at all. Those stats are the gospel truth.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=rpguy96
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 6:33:10 PM | message detail
2006 Smash Bros probably beats 2006 Metal Gear, yeah.

I think one has come back to earth while the other is riding a bit of a high right now though, so who knows. we'll see in three weeks where this is at.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:34:09 PM | message detail
Well, I said it before the Series Contest started that the stats would be completely useless. It would be the biggest case of mass overlap we'd ever seen in a contest because you're dealing with an entire series of games against another.

And most of the matches played out that way.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/12/2008 6:34:54 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #442
Fire Emblem > GTA, WarCraft, Metroid, and Pokemon.

I see no problem here, no problem at all. Those stats are the gospel truth.




The only 3 game series that are horribly off are Metroid (good lord are you kidding) and the 2 Megaman's that just happened run into the 2 god's. I see no problem with FE above 3 series that all have varying degrees of hate and anti votes thrown their way.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 6:35:24 PM | message detail
and two Noble Nine characters aren't riddled with overlap? I don't really see the difference there.

though characters just seem to fall in line while games are far more split.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/12/2008 6:37:02 PM | message detail
and do what we can to get the correct Contest (1v1 64) in place for this season

Its your opinion in that its the correct. My opinion is 64 is not enough, and if you wanna do 1v1, do it with 128 games.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:37:28 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, but Games do appear to be more open and shut. Difficult to explain though, but FFVII can beat any Zelda game while Link still beats Cloud and Sephiroth. That's just how games are different.

I guess people just feel more strongly about games.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
trannyscience | Posted 12/12/2008 6:38:35 PM | message detail
I guess people just feel more strongly about games.

this is a flat-out fact. the two biggest mass instances of whining have been the Game Contest and the Series Contest.

get ready for more!
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2008 6:40:26 PM | message detail
I dunno. I'm one of those people who's more character-oriented than game-oriented. I'll argue over Squall and Tidus more fervently than I will over FFVIII and FFX.

But yeah, I'm definitely in the minority. Most of the classic whining topics are from those contests (SFII LOST?!).
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
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