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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 647

greatone10 | Posted 12/11/2008 2:53:51 AM | message detail

From: MichaelWClark | #299
And that is all purely off of it's name of course, having the name FF or LoZ is a god send in this contest.



And that was my point. Without the FF name, it wouldn't have come close to MGS. Just like I believe FF6 is overrated due to the name factor.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
I hereby bow to FastFalcon who FastFalcon Punched my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2008 3:14:28 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2008 3:14:55 AM | message detail
Are we still seriously discussing ToS

It was a throwaway comment by me about ToS, pick a better game to argue over WoW guys

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 4:51:03 AM | message detail
WoW will fold to Mario because most of this game has not played its games while simultaneously have played AND liked Mario games. WC beat GTA on the strength of GTA's anti-votes as much as whatever popularity it actually had, and it's no coincidence that Starcraft got its start against the perennial whipping boy that is Halo. In retrospect, considering how unconvincing its win was against Halo and what we've seen bandwagons do, its non-bandwagon strength is pretty low on the pecking order.
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red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2008 7:57:41 AM | message detail
WoW will fold to say, SMB3, only because Mario is much much stronger than WoW. It would do just as badly against any other game of Mario 3's strength.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
swirIdude | Posted 12/11/2008 8:01:22 AM | message detail
This year's NCAA Games tournament seems to have been canceled

Yeah...I hate college life for that.

Maybe it'll come back if I can find time next term.
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
FastFalcon: His predictions cure teen pregnancy.
hailEC | Posted 12/11/2008 8:02:33 AM | message detail
WoW will fold to say, SMB3, only because Mario is much much stronger than WoW. It would do just as badly against any other game of Mario 3's strength.

Exactly... which should not be considered "folding," it would perform just like it should.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
except FastFalcon, he's so legit you must bow down to his ass too.
transience | Posted 12/11/2008 8:06:14 AM | message detail
CTDS - Europe - February 6

middle of the contest for a game that never made it over there? oh yeah
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 8:07:51 AM | message detail
Uh, I wasn't necessarily talking about Mario 3. SMW, Galaxy, Yoshi's Island - if it's got a playership rate and is generally liked, it's going to cream WoW. Anyone that doesn't think Tetris would easily beat it is in for a rude awakening come contest time.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/11/2008 8:12:07 AM | message detail
CTDS coming out in Europe should provide a nice boost, but I don't think it's particularly hyped there, is it? I could see CTDS taking a fair amount of time to become popular in Europe, so that the boost it provides will be gradual, not all at once.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
As is FastFalcon
red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2008 9:31:34 AM | message detail
Gradual boost who needs gradual boosts CT > FFVII here we come

CT 50.00%
FFVII 49.95%
OOT 48.00%
LTTP 40.00%
SSBM 39.00%
SMB3 39.00%

Let's do this
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/11/2008 9:53:58 AM | message detail
lol at the notion of Axfail Steel beating a Zelda character. That was one of the worst picks anyone could make. The Legend of Zelda fanbase will NOT let their series fold. (Except for Tingle, but who cares about him anyway?) Zelda refused to fold to Mario in round 1. Axfail Steel, in addition to nearly getting tripled by MIDNA, lost to Edgeworth by 5%. Hell, even Cloud and Mewtwo (Mewtwo especially) got hit hard by the dedication of the Zelda fanbase. And Midna is miles apart from Ganondorf in terms of contest strength. But hey, maybe he can beat Tingle! ...Except Guitar Hero characters (or avatars, better yet) have no place in these contests whatsoever. (And neither does Tingle, for that matter.)
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Xuxon | Posted 12/11/2008 10:23:03 AM | message detail
Navi might be weaker than Tingle even. And she'd still beat Axel in that spot.

Anyone think ALttP could beat FF7? I don't think it was as far behind OoT as the stats implied, and if OoT's enough ahead of FF7, ALttP could be as well. Huge longshot of course, but I'd like to see that match.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Always bet on Snake. I learned this from our guru, FastFalcon05.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2008 10:35:31 AM | message detail
No, FFVII beat CT with over 58%, and CT probably overperformed if anything. LTTP gets over 45% on OOT in the stats....that's higher than I would expect, although not unreasonable, but I can't see LTTP realistically being much closer to OOT than that.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 11:14:46 AM | message detail
If OoT is ahead of FF7 at ALL, it'll be Zelda/FF style. LttP's chances of beating FF7 are practically zero (I say "practically" because if FF7 is saddled with the same stigma that allowed SMB to score 47% on FF, who knows what can happen).
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/11/2008 11:19:34 AM | message detail
Ya know, I think that both SSBM and Chrono Trigger probably overperformed against FF7.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:25:05 AM | message detail
Mario 3 > SSBM

And I've said this before, but looking at the Game of the Century poll again, I'm really looking forward to seeing what Resident Evil 4. I don't think it's done anything but impress in every poll it's been in.

Mario Kart 64 vs. Super Smash Bros. 64: Who you got?

Also, how do you guys think FFX-2 would fare in a contest setting? Would you take it head-to-head over any PS FF?
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:27:31 AM | message detail
you thought that was impressive for RE4?

I thought it was the opposite. don't look at it beating TP, cause that's not fair -- look at how far it was behind FFX. I thought it was right there with FFX on the cusp of the top 10, but it looked a good bit behind.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:29:21 AM | message detail
RE4 was probably getting hindered by all of the Nintendo in that poll, even though probably not as much as the others. FFX was completely unhindered there. The only other non-Nintendo game was San Andreas, which has no excuses for how poorly it did there.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 11:34:41 AM | message detail
CT overperforming against FF7, I can buy (at least relative to what it "should" have gotten, considering the SFF). But SSBM? It absolutely flopped against FF7 - that, plus it barely (and undeservedly) escaping its division was one of the big rationales for The Boost helping SSB most of all.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:35:31 AM | message detail
Undeservedly?

I wish FFX stood a chance in a rematch.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:35:46 AM | message detail
RE4, hindered by Nintendo?

was Leon hindered by Kirby then?
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 11:37:34 AM | message detail
Hey, look at how Leon performed relative to Dante when a Nintendo character WASN'T in the match!

...sometimes I wish I knew when I was joking
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:37:50 AM | message detail
Games are a bit different, I'd say. Unless you think Link would SFF James Bond, that is!!

Same thing with FFVII/MGS though. Seems pretty obvious to me that FFVII SFF'd it, but Solid Snake did just fine against Cloud and Sephiroth.

And Link sure didn't SFF L-Block!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 11:38:52 AM | message detail
I wouldn't call Melee's match a flop. We didn't really put it (or FFX) in the same category as Mario 3 or FFVI until The List, and by then we had The Boost.
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transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:40:56 AM | message detail
I'm high on RE4 as well - top 15 at the very least - but I can't say that a large loss to FF10 is ever a good showing. the star of that match for me is TP, who showed that it would almost definitely be in FF10's class without two big Nintendo titles. seriously, look at Crono/Mario this year and then consider TP/Galaxy/Wind Waker/FF10. I like TP for a top 10 title.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
TestIcicles | Posted 12/11/2008 11:42:33 AM | message detail
I'd take RE4 > TP out of sheer fanboyism and pray.

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mmm test icicles
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:45:57 AM | message detail
Oh, I'd definitely take Twilight Princess over Final Fantasy X. After all, FFX/Wind Waker is still considered a toss-up, I think, and it definitely was in 2004.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:46:10 AM | message detail
I'm scared of taking RE4 against any top-tier title from the Big Three -- and when you're up that high, that's pretty much all you're dealing with. the only game in its class that I'd feel comfortable about picking RE4 is Goldeneye.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
TestIcicles | Posted 12/11/2008 11:48:32 AM | message detail
I agree... if only Twilight Princess didn't have the name Zelda in front of it. :(

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mmm test icicles
transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:49:03 AM | message detail
yep. I'd even struggle with something lower. Mario World vs. RE4? yuck.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 11:50:02 AM | message detail
What about RE4/MGS?

(that would be a nice ode to the rather failed RE/MGS match as well)
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transience | Posted 12/11/2008 11:51:02 AM | message detail
I'd probably go MGS just because of MGS4. I'm not convinced that RE4 has universal appeal -- or rather, that it has the playrate that other big games do.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2008 11:52:45 AM | message detail
That's why we need a cross-generational Games Contest! Division 128 has the highest average strength from the Games Contest (though obviously the two strongest games are from 32/64), but how would they hold up against the classics? That's the big question.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 11:54:38 AM | message detail
MGS had 75% playership in 2005; I don't think it's ridiculous to think RE4 is similar when it's on all three of the most popular modern consoles.

And if you want to talk about failing to stand up to something with a name, there's always the MGS/FFT match...
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TestIcicles | Posted 12/11/2008 11:57:54 AM | message detail
I'd definitely take RE4 over MGS... not guaranteeing victory, but I'd feel better about it than the other way around, same goes for Mario World, but I'm the guy who just said he'd take RE4 over TP so uh...

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mmm test icicles
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 11:59:14 AM | message detail
I wouldn't call Melee's match a flop. We didn't really put it (or FFX) in the same category as Mario 3 or FFVI until The List, and by then we had The Boost.

Still, you'd think the strongest game from the 128-era could at least match the second tier of the 16-era - especially given that it was going up an FF7 that had just beaten OoT and primed to suffer from a bandwagon. It likely wasn't above the second tier of the 32-era either.

The argument is academic, anyway. The SSBM that scored more on ALL OF SUPER MARIO BROTHERS as compared to FF7 is a totally different entity.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 12:03:28 PM | message detail
And I know I'm the resident MGS fanboy here, but taking MGS/FFT as anything other than an historical anomaly is just asking for trouble. It's like comparing Snake 2k4 to Snake 2k5 at the very least. Plus that match was all kinds of weird, but I'd be stunned if FFT could break 40% on MGS today.
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transience | Posted 12/11/2008 12:05:09 PM | message detail
silly question, but FFT or FF1?

'cause I doubt you're taking MGS over Mario 3.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 12:07:22 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take FFT to be especially close nowadays either, and there's a reason it's not even in the discussion when we talk about games in the MGS tier, but the question is why did FFT come so close? We can probably agree that MGS was strong back then, since it did great on The List and that was before Snake's superboost, so why did it let FFT almost beat it? I think the name "Final Fantasy" has a lot to do with that, and if we're talking about being cautious about taking RE4 over something with a name that's worthwhile to bring up.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 12/11/2008 12:07:55 PM | message detail
FFT/FF1 would be really weird

I mean REALLY weird

I'd go with FFT for a wacky upset
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 12:08:19 PM | message detail
FFT, though it's without confidence. Still, it's not like FF1 puts up that number on Mario 3 again. There's a lot of results the Games Contest yielded that we wouldn't even come close to seeing with the votes we get today. Could Xenogears even put up 35% on G/S/C?
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transience | Posted 12/11/2008 12:09:04 PM | message detail
I think the point is that 2k4 Snake almost lost to Frog, bombed against Mega Man and had people arguing Zelda and Bowser over him throughout the 2k5 contest. there's two boosts there -- one from 2k4 to 2k5, and another from 2k5 to 2k6.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 12:09:51 PM | message detail
We can probably agree that MGS was strong back then, since it did great on The List and that was before Snake's superboost, so why did it let FFT almost beat it?

Snake boosted almost as much from 2004 to 2005 (list year) as he did from 2k5 to 2k6. 2004 was just a bad year for MGS.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 12:12:54 PM | message detail
I don't think 2k4 Snake is particularly off from 2k5 Snake. Yeah, Snake beat Zelda and Bowser, but the Zeldafear was primarily from her first round crushing of Vivi and he only just held off Bowser. The result on Mario was decent, but still placed him at the tail end of the Noble Nine, and you'd do better arguing that Crono/Mega Man/Sonic were falling off rather than Snake rising in the ranks that year.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/11/2008 12:17:02 PM | message detail
2004 was a bad year for MGS. Snake failed to get 60% on Knuckles, nearly lost to Frog (Solid ****....), bombed against Mega Man, and as a result, had people arguing Bowser and Zelda over him (the former almost succeeded, too). Speaking of which, the "I Feel Asleep!!" was more from Bowser's end, as he hasn't been able to show his strength since his loss to Solid **** in 2005.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 12:17:23 PM | message detail
Considering how overrated Dream ended up being compared to the rest of Snake's path, it's foolish to take that result as anything but the result of the picture. And the Zeldafear *was* warranted, especially considering that Vivi ended up pretty much around where we thought he was... we just didn't get to see Zelda's trailer boost due to the 2k4 cap. The point is that Snake put up as much on Super Mario as he did on Mega Man the year before, and that's nothing to scoff at.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 12:25:20 PM | message detail
Sure, Bowser was a picture, but so was Frog (and he had a better one to work with to boot). I didn't remember Snake doing as well on Mario as Mega Man, though. Hard to say where Mega Man was in 2k4 thanks to bombing to Link, but that's impressive nonetheless.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 12/11/2008 12:31:21 PM | message detail
That's just the thing, though - take those two matches relative to one another. Is Frog even in the same league as Bowser? Solid **** going from barely holding off Frog to barely holding off Bowser is a massive jump in improvement, I think, even if the overall story is just how BAD Sprite Snake is.

(no coincidence that everything behind Yoshi 2k6 is starting to get exposed, too!)
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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/11/2008 12:34:47 PM | message detail
But, as I said, Frog had a lot more to work with - a much better sprite and a much worse Snake sprite. Remember that Ryu didn't really do anything against Sprite Snake for some reason and that was the one match of four that Snake actually beat L-Block, so it's not instant doom. It depends on how well the opposite character can take advantage of it.
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