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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 647

The Mana Sword | Posted 12/8/2008 11:17:24 AM | message detail
There has to be a more recent Zelda poll than that.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
transience | Posted 12/8/2008 11:21:54 AM | message detail
nope. that's when Wind Waker was new so it's overperforming there.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
transience | Posted 12/8/2008 11:22:20 AM | message detail
now for something a bit more embarrassing:

Poll 1492 (01/08/2004)
BEST OF 2003: Game of the Year (Final Vote)

22171 31.18% Final Fantasy X-2
31189 43.87% The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
17738 24.95% Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

man, 2003 sucked.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
The Mana Sword | Posted 12/8/2008 11:23:00 AM | message detail
wind waker and x-2 are both great games, i see no problem there
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2008 11:36:38 AM | message detail
I don't trust that poll both for LoZ:OoT and LoZ:WW being about a month old at the time. Host that poll again -- with or without LoZ:TP -- and LoZ:WW should do clearly worse and LoZ:MM should do just a little better.

Still, it's certainly not favorable to LoZ:MM. I'm totally cool with them being close together, but I don't see much reason to give LoZ:MM the benefit of the doubt yet over LoZ:WW nowadays, much less expect LoZ:MM to match what LoZ:WW did in 2004. LoZ:WW did almost quadruple LoZ:MM...the poll is hard to find very reliable, but it's hard to see LoZ:MM gain and LoZ:WW drop enough there to make it close in that poll, and I've always favored LoZ:WW > LoZ:MM head-to-head.


Their indirect strength should be similar, but LoZ:WW's shown reason for it to be equal to or stronger in probably everything we've seen.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
transience | Posted 12/8/2008 11:39:29 AM | message detail
for whatever it's worth, Zelda 1 did only slightly better, had less overlap and still put up a nice number on Mario 3. it's really not hard to see Majora's Mask be up there solely on the fact that it's a well-known Zelda title.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2008 12:27:34 PM | message detail
Point granted, I just think you have to take LoZ:WW along with however high you want to take LoZ:MM (and perhaps put it a little higher).
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
transience | Posted 12/8/2008 12:29:03 PM | message detail
my point is that third-tier Zelda titles don't differ from each other much, despite there being some preference amongst the Zelda hierarchy. I think this is true, to a point, of everything in the Big Three, and the strength gets more and more wonky the lower down the food chain you go. I think Mario 2 could beat a bunch of games just based on its pedigree. Minish Cap is probably the same.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Karma Hunter | Posted 12/8/2008 12:29:18 PM | message detail
There's also the little detail of Majora's Mask being the game most susceptible to SFF from OoT *specifically* - by far. I'm not terribly high on Majora's Mask in a contest setting (even if it is a top ten game personally), but that's not a poll you can really judge it by.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
red sox 777 | Posted 12/8/2008 12:41:03 PM | message detail
WW probably is considerably weaker than it was in 2004, and it was never nearly as strong as its x-stat value through Starcraft and SSBM implied. Remember it only beat Metroid Prime 55-45. Point taken on Majora's Mask likely being around the same level as Wind Waker though. I want to see Zelda 1 back in the contest more and more- I really want to call it the 4th strongest (or even 3rd strongest if TP fails) Zelda game. I don't agree that it is less linear than most games- if it can hold up to SMB3, I'd think it could hold up to any non-Zelda Nintendo game.

The whole 32/64 division other than FFVII/OOT is underrated due to FFVII and OOT's round 2 and 3 matches, and possibly doubly so due to CT and SSBM overperforming on FFVII. There's no conclusve evidence on it, but after seeing how important bandwagons are and looking at how much CT and SSBM dominated the early vote (admittedly, they are both excellent normally with the early vote and FFVII is horrid, but those matches look especially unbalanced), I think it's pretty likely. Either way, MGS and Goldeneye are a great deal stronger than they looked.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:39:46 PM | message detail
I'm really looking forward to how RE4 performs in this upcoming contest. I have high expectations for it.

I'm still on the Mario World > Mario 64 bandwagon, by the way! Anyone here with me?!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2008 4:40:43 PM | message detail
I'm with you because I always support my favorite games!

Train probably crashes before reaching Logic Station, though.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
transience | Posted 12/8/2008 4:41:41 PM | message detail
direct match, I'd probably support World.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:44:09 PM | message detail
I've seen probably the majority of the stats topic side with Mario 64. I just want to know why. Mario is probably one of the only series where old school is probably stronger than new school (...If you want to consider Mario 64 "new school," I guess).
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 4:45:22 PM | message detail
Hey, there's an old Mario poll, too

Poll 1181 (02/27/2003)
What's your favorite Super Mario game?

3645 6.56% Super Mario Bros.
483 0.87% Super Mario Bros. Lost Levels
2500 4.50% Super Mario Bros. 2
16880 30.38% Super Mario Bros. 3
1151 2.07% Super Mario Land
451 0.81% Super Mario Land 2
11012 19.82% Super Mario World
1929 3.47% Super Mario World 2
12164 21.89% Super Mario 64
5345 9.62% Super Mario Sunshine

TOTAL VOTES: 55560


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KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2008 4:45:56 PM | message detail
Mario 64 has less reason to age, though. World has had nothing while 64 has had Mario 64 DS (which was pretty much the only thing out for the DS at the time) and the Virtual Console, and probably had the edge before them anyway.

Taking World if they meet in the bracket, though.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 4:47:24 PM | message detail
Mario 64 will be the stronger game, but World could make a match of it directly. Mario 64 wouldn't be hurt any kind of 'new school' thing or whatever - it has nearly as much nostalgia for most people as the 2D Marios do.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:48:23 PM | message detail
Mario World and Mario 64 are too close in that poll for it to mean anything definitive though. Plus, Mario 64 probably gets less SFF from Mario 3 than Mario World as well. Regardless, that poll tells me that a direct matchup could go either way.

And Mario World had that GBA port!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2008 4:49:15 PM | message detail
...Of course, I'm taking RE4 to beat both of them.

(who's with me let's do this)

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/8/2008 4:49:30 PM | message detail
I'm kinda disappointed Super Mario World 2 is getting in. Looking at that poll, it could be a stinker compared to other Mario games.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:49:51 PM | message detail
...

I want to be with you. I don't think as much of Mario 64 as others do. I'd consider taking that upset.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 4:50:05 PM | message detail
re4 over mario 64 no thanks !

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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:50:47 PM | message detail
I said this when FastFalcon announced his pick: He might have chosen the weakest main Mario game there is to pick (I'd seriously consider Sunshine over it), but it'll still have decent strength because of the name.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/8/2008 4:52:12 PM | message detail
I can't fault Falcon for the pick, as I would have chosen FFIX or ToS if I was in his place.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/8/2008 4:52:23 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #073
I said this when FastFalcon announced his pick: He might have chosen the weakest main Mario game there is to pick (I'd seriously consider Sunshine over it), but it'll still have decent strength because of the name.



Decent strength I guess... maybe a midcarder? but I can't see it really beating any game of note. Maybe slaughter like a Disgaea or Tales game first round xD
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/8/2008 4:53:37 PM | message detail
I'm not saying it was a bad pick. The Guru selection is a bias pick for the most part anyway, and at least he didn't choose a bottom-feeder.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/8/2008 4:54:43 PM | message detail
It'll turn out to be a bad pick if there is a cap of like 4 games. Otherwise, its fine. But with a cap of 4 games in a series, it would likely bump out a Mario game that really deserves it
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 4:54:47 PM | message detail
Yoshi's Island will get plenty of support thanks to being a Mario game. It won't favor well in those kind of polls, but it'll be a decently strong entry if it gets in, though it'll come in well below the major Mario games. Don't think I'd care to see it make the contest.

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MetricTrout | Posted 12/8/2008 7:17:51 PM | message detail
Like I said, if there is a cap of 4, Yoshi's Island would likely be counted as a separate series. It worked for FFT, right?

Yoshi's Island would be stronger than Sunshine or SMB2 and possibly NSMB. The key here is that YI is generally a well-liked game with a decent following of its own. When a games already has recognition, the general consensus of its quality is the main factor in contest strength.

As for Majora's Mask vs. Wind Waker, Majora's Mask is unquestionably the stronger game today. Remember, the two games finished next to each other in the GameFAQs Top 100 list. Wind Waker finished highly due to the fact that it is the most recent Zelda at the time. It received votes due to that. Since WW no longer has that advantage, it should have declined quite a bit, while MM should remain relatively stable.

For similar reasons, neither game is going to be strong as WW was in 2004.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2008 9:28:10 PM | message detail
Man, today's poll result doesn't make much sense. The current results:

A new hign-end PC 15.4% 627
A new console or portable game system 11.74% 478
A new HDTV 16.51% 672
Just some new games 28.67% 1167
Something else 27.68% 1127
TOTAL VOTES 4071


That's a rather lousy performance from "Just some new games", considering a poll from a few days ago showed that 43.75% of the voting base wanted at least one game. "A new console or portable game system" is also putting up a lousy performance since if you were you add up the percentage of people that wanted a PSP (4.74%), DS (3.14%), Xbox 360 (6.75%), Wii (3.48%), and a PS3 (5.94%), that should total up to 24.05%. Yet, the second option is only putting up about half of that 24.05%. High-end PC is also heavily overperforming since only 4.64% wanted a new PC in the "gaming quality PC" poll. "Something else" is doing around what I expected. I'm quite surprised to see HDTV beating out the high-end PC option.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/8/2008 9:28:40 PM | message detail
Thanks for that, Luster.
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2008 9:55:08 PM | message detail
Holy hell, "Something else" has just taken the lead over "Just some new games". A 3 vote lead, but that's very unusual to see occuring in a poll hosted on a video game website.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/8/2008 10:02:13 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #082
Holy hell, "Something else" has just taken the lead over "Just some new games". A 3 vote lead, but that's very unusual to see occuring in a poll hosted on a video game website.



... Are you seriously analyzing this poll?
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2008 10:07:40 PM | message detail
Are you seriously analyzing this poll?

Nope. But when a poll has one video game related option against several non-video game related options, the video game option should be expected to dominate the poll, being that it's hosted on a video game website.

Here's the lead for "Something else" on the last 4 updates: 3, 36, 11, 45

"Just some new games" will probably suck badly in the FNV.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 12/8/2008 10:09:18 PM | message detail
Thanks for that, Luster.
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"feh... your right...I am the stalker" - ExThaNemesis
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
Lopen | Posted 12/9/2008 1:19:35 AM | message detail
I'm thinking the wording of the poll is why "just some new games" isn't winning. I mean... what do you MOST want for Christmas. People could be thinking much more ambitiously than something they're likely to get. And the new games option has "just" before it that's not exactly encouraging.

... what the hell why am I talking about THIS after not having a post since yesterday dammit Luster.
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FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead.
Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/9/2008 3:19:44 AM | message detail
As more time goes on I am further convinced everyone in the stats topic has PAPS (Pathologically Analyzing Polls Syndrome).

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
transience | Posted 12/9/2008 3:21:01 AM | message detail
after a while you just learn to tune out the overanalysis.

plus this is just Luster being Luster so it's not a normal thing
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/9/2008 4:12:59 AM | message detail
Here's the lead for "Something else" on the last 5 updates: 477, 474, 481, 460, 453

Comeback time! "Just some new games" to win the BSV!

plus this is just Luster being Luster so it's not a normal thing

LOL
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/9/2008 4:22:13 AM | message detail
400 vote barrier broken!

Something else's lead over the last few updates: 477, 474, 481, 460, 453, 425, 396

It's getting killed badly right now by "Just some new games".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2008 4:40:33 AM | message detail
What the...?
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/9/2008 4:58:43 AM | message detail
300 vote barrier broken!

Something else's lead over the last hour or so of updates: 477, 474, 481, 460, 453, 425, 396, 381, 356, 365, 357, 359, 326, 298

After all that stalling earlier, a 33 vote cut comes in.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2008 7:40:15 AM | message detail
Just some new games has taken the lead, just so you guys know.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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MnMZero | Posted 12/9/2008 7:48:13 AM | message detail
Mario 64 > SMW even though SMW is the superior game
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Proud Supporter of Zero
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/9/2008 7:53:01 AM | message detail
Just some new games has taken the lead, just so you guys know.

Yay! Although I am rather surprised that it's winning the DSV. It'll probably win the ASV too.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 12/9/2008 7:53:47 AM | message detail
Yeah, the wording of the poll matters a lot. Remember when CJayC asked whether he should change to poll start time to midnight eastern or just keep it at midnight pacific, and keep it the same won in a landslide? The poll was later run again with neutral options, and I think midnight eastern won.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
MichaelWClark | Posted 12/9/2008 7:58:23 AM | message detail
How is HD Tv not winning? The way it is worded is would you most like to receive. So this has nothing to do with whether or not you have a chance to get it. A couple 50 dollar games should not be beating a 1,500 dollar HD TV.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MnMZero | Posted 12/9/2008 8:03:52 AM | message detail
I voted for something else, myself. Dying for a new 09 Honda Accord EX-L Coupe over here...
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Proud Supporter of Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 12/9/2008 8:28:03 AM | message detail
Yeah, the wording matters, but I don't care for this poll...at all.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/9/2008 8:32:35 AM | message detail
Back to more pressing matters:

Metroid Prime vs. Super Metroid: Who wins?
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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