GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 647
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 6:25:11 PM | message detail |
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i think father goose is a pretty cool guy, he screws up contests and doesn't afraid of anything ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 6:38:58 PM | message detail |
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whoever said Mario 64 vs. Goldeneye/MGS/RE4 is debatable is crazy Mario 64 destroys every one of those games --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 6:47:41 PM | message detail |
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too early, I see --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2008 6:48:49 PM | message detail |
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I'm expecting great things from RE4. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it beat them. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 12/7/2008 6:50:17 PM | message detail |
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You overrate RE4. Just... you overrate RE4. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. And butts. |
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 6:50:20 PM | message detail |
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well I suppose the RE games will get more votes than the RE characters but SM64 still should handily beat RE4 --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| Lopen | Posted 12/7/2008 6:59:11 PM | message detail |
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How many of the new voters have even played NES games? Today's poll shines some light on that. 33% of the voting base started in that era or before, and I wouldn't doubt that a huge majority of the SNES era had decent exposure to the NES... throw in some trickle down to the other generations... I'd be pretty surprised if the NES didn't manage around 80% playership. --- FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead. Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2008 7:00:14 PM | message detail |
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Continuing from the last topic: Well, for SMW at least, the 4 years since 2004 aren't going to help it, because it's also very very old, and among people who have played neither, the Zelda game is going to win the franchise votes. SM64.....it came out for the N64, so it looks better here, but it still came out in 1996- that's 12 years ago. As far as Zelda 1 winning franchise votes (and hence votes from people who did not own a NES), there actually is evidence here beyond speculation: it won the day vote by a substantial margin against SMB3. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 7:01:11 PM | message detail |
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over 70% of the people who started gaming after that era will have considerably played the NES? i call shenanigans --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/7/2008 7:01:30 PM | message detail |
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And as far as Zelda 1 goes, remember it was rereleased in the Zelda
Collector's Edition that was packaged with the Gamecube for Christmas
of 2003 and sold 2 million copies, and it has appeared on the Virtual
Console. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2008 7:01:49 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'll concede that certain NES games have a shot of getting in, but
I still think they're going to do noticeably worse than in 2k4 if they
do get in. Even stuff like FF1. Of course, none of them get in if we never get nominations on the front page! --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| Lopen | Posted 12/7/2008 7:03:51 PM | message detail |
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Well there's got to be a huge overlap between SNES era and the NES era.
Do you doubt that? I mean, the system was still releasing games for
nearly half of the SNES lifespan, and I'm sure most of those that
didn't have one at least had friends or family that had one. The thing is the NES got more popular towards the end of its lifecycle, the NES/SNES era isn't as disjoint as this poll implies. --- FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead. Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon. |
| TestIcicles | Posted 12/7/2008 7:03:52 PM | message detail |
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Today's poll shines some light on that. 33% of the voting base
started in that era or before, and I wouldn't doubt that a huge
majority of the SNES era had decent exposure to the NES... This. I've been gaming for 15 years, so I voted for the SNES option, even though the NES was my first system for a few years. --- mmm test icicles |
| DomaDragoon | Posted 12/7/2008 7:05:01 PM | message detail |
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over 70% of the people who started gaming after that era will have considerably played the NES? Given how the big N loves rereleasing their games, not to mention emulation, I'd say the first two tiers of quality games at the least would have major playership. --- I was soundly thrashed by FastFalcon, our reigning Guru Champion. www.rpgdl.com - Because everybody loves violent arena battles, right? |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2008 7:16:53 PM | message detail |
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On RE4, http://www.ilxor.com/ILX/ThreadSelectedControllerServlet?boardid=67&threadid=232 I believe this was before the PS2/Wii version? Yeah the list is screwy, but still. Not to mention how we say RE do last contest. It could very well be Top 10-15 material. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| Gaddswell | Posted 12/7/2008 7:19:19 PM | message detail |
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TestIcicles (#013) Same here! 15 years, and started with a NES! --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord! |
| ZFS | Posted 12/7/2008 7:25:11 PM | message detail |
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Well, for SMW at least, the 4 years since 2004 aren't going to help
it, because it's also very very old, and among people who have played
neither, the Zelda game is going to win the franchise votes.
SM64.....it came out for the N64, so it looks better here, but it still
came out in 1996- that's 12 years ago. As far as Zelda 1 winning
franchise votes (and hence votes from people who did not own a NES),
there actually is evidence here beyond speculation: it won the day vote
by a substantial margin against SMB3. Five years can make all the difference. Aside from the fact that Mario characters were the biggest beneficiaries of the boost in 2005, you've got the fact we're going to have upwards of 40,000 more votes per match than we did back in 2004. When Zelda 1 and FF1 both put up 40%+ on SMB3 it was a different time - I wouldn't expect either one to be able to match that today. Taking Zelda 1 to win these matches seems like something you'd get through stats, which is what you kicked this off with. It's simple for me - which is considered better by most people today? Mario World or Zelda 1? Not too hard. The only thing Zelda 1 has going in its favor is its namesake. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| TestIcicles | Posted 12/7/2008 7:29:45 PM | message detail |
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Mario World would kick Zelda 1's ass tbqh. At least if this site has respectable taste. --- mmm test icicles |
| charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2008 7:38:53 PM | message detail |
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As for NES era games making it to the contest after SMB3 and hopefully
Mega Man 2 I also see Tetris making it with no problems. After that we
have things like Pong and Pac-Man. If there's no caps I see LoZ, FF and
even SMB entering. After that we have Contra and maybe Metroid though I
don't see any of them making it. Should be interesting to see who makes
it. I think a lot of long term GameFAQs users have caught wind of the contest. Last time I checked we've got over 34000 nominations. Being nice and saying that each person nominated 15 games that's still over 2200 users. I find it hard to believe that Board 8's current population is much greater than 500. I've seen rallies being posted on various social boards such as LUE and even the gaming boards. Posting a link at the front page would probably be more benefical to casual games than NES oldies. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| Fiop | Posted 12/7/2008 7:46:19 PM | message detail |
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The years on the poll seem off. For me I'd say 22-24 years, but started
with an Atari. People will perhaps default to picking their gaming age
vs. their first gaming system. --- "If the ax is dull and the man does not whet the edge, he must put forth more strength; but wisdom help him to succeed." -- Ecclesiastes 10:10 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2008 7:52:35 PM | message detail |
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True I started late and while my first system was the SNES I chosed the N64 option. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2008 8:15:39 PM | message detail |
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There's a new update at the tally topic. 1. (SNES) Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island 2. (DS) Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 3. (GB) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow 4. (N64) Star Fox 64 5. (NES) Mega Man 2 6. (SNES) Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest 7. (N64) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 8. (N64) GoldenEye 007 9. (GC/PS2/WII) Resident Evil 4 10. (GC) Tales of Symphonia 10. (PC) Portal --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 12/7/2008 8:16:52 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=46900890&message=514684040 Better. --- FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't. |
| WalrusJump | Posted 12/7/2008 9:09:06 PM | message detail |
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Portal needs to make it since my pet nom, PM: TTYD, won't --- http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg FastFalcon is a better person than me because of Solid Snake or something. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/7/2008 9:42:00 PM | message detail |
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Tag --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 12/7/2008 11:03:29 PM | message detail |
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Okay, for my next daily dose of "reality check", let me lay down something for those who are still high on Super Mario 64. It is the one single game that has NEVER failed to disappoint expectations. It didn't just finish behind Goldeneye against OoT, it finished significantly behind it. When we poured all our faith into it making a strong showing on the Top Ten List, it went and bombed there as well. And even with the stellar boost it's going to be getting courtesy of its high critical acclaim, it's sure to garner a disappointingly low seed when the bracket is released. Now, I'm not trying to discourage anyone from thinking that SM64 might be stronger than game X or weaker than game Y but... let's be real, here. This is to say nothing of Galaxy, which I'm terrified of getting plastered by the first thing with name recognition (I'm talking blowout by Goldeneye). --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| ZFS | Posted 12/7/2008 11:44:15 PM | message detail |
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| HaRRicH | Posted 12/7/2008 11:58:03 PM | message detail |
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I would definitely take GE > SMG. I'm not so sure about SM64...though probably. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 12:18:16 AM | message detail |
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Super Mario 64 will be fine, so long as it doesn't run into an opponent
like Ocarina of Time in round 2. If its expectations are so high in the
sky that 13th out of the top 100 is bombing, the problem isn't so much
with Mario 64 as it is with people having unreasonable ideas of Mario
64's strength. It'll beat the likes of Goldeneye and Metal Gear Solid
(again, I'd be shocked if it lost to either one of these), but it also
won't be contending with Mario 3 for the title of strongest Mario game. The real problem it has is how badly it got trashed by Ocarina, but that result shouldn't have been surprising. Mario 64 and Ocarina have about as much overlap with each other as two games from different series can. There couldn't have been a more unfavorable opponent for Mario there. And even generally speaking, when you have a non-Zelda Nintendo game go up against Zelda, the results won't be good - with few exceptions - especially when Zelda is already the stronger, more popular game. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| Lopen | Posted 12/8/2008 12:22:20 AM | message detail |
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I still don't like it, how it did against OoT. OoT wasn't even the
strongest game in that contest... SFF or not, 20% is terrible. If SM64
had a solid backing I'd think it should hold up a bit better than that. Still, it nabbing 13 on the top 10 list says nothing but good for it, I'd say. That's really the only thing having me doubt it isn't a lot weaker than we all think. --- FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead. Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon. |
| Lopen | Posted 12/8/2008 12:24:22 AM | message detail |
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That being said, things that people are arguing it over, GE and MGS, did even better on that list, so maybe it's dooming it yet, in a sense. --- FastFalcon's quest to defeat Lopen: Round - blagh I am dead. Target: 467+. Target obtained and shattered damn you FastFalcon. |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 12/8/2008 12:28:24 AM | message detail |
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From: Lopen | #030 Hate to tell you, but at that point, OoT WAS the strongest game in the bracket, besides, even if it was second at that time, no one would say getting blown out by Cloud is a bad thing, same with OoT. How do you expect that SFF to fall? --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 12:36:29 AM | message detail |
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| transience | Posted 12/8/2008 1:13:50 AM | message detail |
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I missed a lot. let's back up: Zelda 1 did well because it's a Zelda game, not because it's necessarily strong. remember how shocked most of us were when Zelda didn't fold to Mario? that Ganondorf didn't fold to Samus? the only thing that can hurt Zelda is Zelda. both Zelda and FF have great franchise voting; people look at game they don't care about vs. Zelda and say "ooh, I'll vote for Zelda." that said, I don't think this is very linear: Zelda probably still gets 40%+ on Mario 3, but I could see it only getting 45 on a much lesser game, say Mario World. let me check The List: #30: The Legend of Zelda - NES not bad, but not a lot of NES competition - just Mario 3, Tetris and FF1 really. well, and LTTP. I think it had a beneficial setup there as opposed to something like Wind Waker, which had to deal with OOT (which overshadows EVERYTHING Nintendo) and MM as well, not to mention the other big Nintendo games of the time. I think Zelda 1 is a fascinating title because it's out of date, very few people of today will say they love it, but a lot of people know it. it could beat a game like Resident Evil 4 just based on brand name power + RE4 not being universally played/loved, or it could get killed. it could also go up against a lesser Nintendo game and lose all its support. Zelda 1's crazy. I nominated it and ask others to as well. now then, Majora's Mask. I see no reason to differentiate it from Wind Waker: you can point to polls where Wind Waker did awful, but it still did pretty well in x-stats and should have beaten Starcraft, which some of you hold as a top 10 game for whatever reason. #45: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - GC #46: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - N64 again, people vote for Zelda because it's Zelda. Wind Waker gets smashed in a SFF poll but put it against something neutral like Metal Gear Solid 3 and I have a hard time backing MGS3. same goes for Majora's Mask. I don't like this nomination at all because I think we already know where it's going to be - Wind Waker's level. Zelda 1's much better, in my opinion. on to Mario - Mario 64 is a game I have fought against for years. it is the most disappointing game in contest history, getting absolutely BLASTED by OOT - remember, OOT beat it worse than LTTP beat Super Metroid - and then stopped me from winning more money on that List. Mario 64 has been nothing but a disappointment. but it's the second biggest n64 game for sure and despite how much I want to see it, I can't get my mind around Goldeneye topping Mario. it's like Samus over Mario to me. Mario 64 might lose to Metal Gear Solid - that has a name behind it. Goldeneye is just a multiplayer game. strong, but it's tough for me to pick against Mario. Galaxy's critical reviews combined with how big the Wii is here combined with the fact that it's a Mario title combined with it being new and exciting tells me that it'll be all right. maybe it's not in the SM64 class that Heroic Mario wants to put it in, but it should be able to hang with the next tier below - I'd probably take it safely over Kingdom Hearts or Starcraft or whatever else people want to put in that category. hmm, Majora's Mask vs. Galaxy gogogo --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| transience | Posted 12/8/2008 1:15:20 AM | message detail |
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oh, and FF1 is a bit of a classic but it doesn't have universal backing
today. that game did not age well for people and anyone under the age
of 20 will struggle to relate to it at all. 4 out of 10 prefer it to
Mario 3? really? --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2008 1:39:23 AM | message detail |
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GE/SM64 is in some ways a battle between the second best single-player
experience versus the best multi-player experience on a system designed
for multi-player. It is nowhere near that simple, though I think
there's something to be said about the game that has probably logged
the most hours on N64's in the nation/world because of its
multi-player. It was also able to make a lot of fans through people who
never even owned the game -- it was just that kind of era in
multi-player video gaming that came between four controllers first
being the norm and online play quickly becoming the norm. I don't think
we'll see it happen like that anymore. The Top 100 List and BGE-2004 comparisons aside, it's still dangerous territory for SM64. Then again though, who's to say any Mario launch-game is in dangerous territory against a non-Nintendo game from a Nintendo system? This is the newest match we've argued over for years and need to see, now that Kirby/Dante is out. This match truly needs to happen so we can decide which game is #2 for the N64. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| ZFS | Posted 12/8/2008 1:52:46 AM | message detail |
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That being said, things that people are arguing it over, GE and MGS,
did even better on that list, so maybe it's dooming it yet, in a sense.
That list should be used, at best, as a rough indicator of the general area that games may fall into. Goldeneye and Metal Gear Solid aren't top 10 games - and neither is Halo, for that matter - but both had no problems placing there. It does reinforce the idea that they're more than likely going to be strong entries, but not much aside from that. A good example is FFX - it's one spot above Mario 64, and I'd take it over Goldeneye and MGS1 in a heartbeat. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/8/2008 4:34:19 AM | message detail |
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--- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/8/2008 6:45:09 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| WoWfaqs | Posted 12/8/2008 6:53:34 AM | message detail |
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Super Mario 64 will be fine, so long as it doesn't run into an
opponent like Ocarina of Time in round 2. If its expectations are so
high in the sky that 13th out of the top 100 is bombing, the problem
isn't so much with Mario 64 as it is with people having unreasonable
ideas of Mario 64's strength. It'll beat the likes of Goldeneye and
Metal Gear Solid (again, I'd be shocked if it lost to either one of
these), but it also won't be contending with Mario 3 for the title of
strongest Mario game. Pretty much perfect explanation of SM64. I'd take 64 over Galaxy as well though. As for the Majora's Mask/Wind Waker thing... I have absolutely no idea why anyone thinks MM will be some pillar of strength, or at least significantly stronger than WW. There's no reason to actually believe this other than personal preference. MM was outclassed and overshadowed by OoT on the 64, and WW has already proved itself to be pretty capable, despite the hate it gets around here. There's absolutely no reason to see both in, and if I had to pick one to see it'd definitely be WW again. What tranny said about Goldeneye/SM64 is true too. Even if you happen to believe 007 would outdo SM64 on a common non-SFFable opponent, there's no way 007 topples SM64 directly. It's god damn Mario for crying out loud. All you need is common sense here. MM/Galaxy? That's a tough one, but I think I probably side with Majora's Mask. As highly acclaimed as Galaxy was, it wasn't really that big once it was actually released. Galaxy is like Brawl in that I would have expected it to be far stronger before the game was released, then after it actually was. Zelda name against the Mario name makes me want to favor MM mask as well. I could see Galaxy winning, but I'm pretty confident I'd go with MM and not really think about switching. --- mmm test icicles |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 12/8/2008 9:42:01 AM | message detail |
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Galaxy is like Brawl in that I would have expected it to be far
stronger before the game was released, then after it actually was. Disagree strongly there. Galaxy didn't have anywhere near the hype of TP/Brawl/Halo 3 or even MGS4/FFXIII. I mean, look at this: Poll 2929 (11/08/07) Which scheduled November console release are you most looking forward to? 30741 28.66% Assassin's Creed 1784 1.66% Kane & Lynch: Dead Men 13316 12.41% Mass Effect 10285 9.59% Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles 8245 7.69% Rock Band 36840 34.35% Super Mario Galaxy 1399 1.3% TimeShift 4654 4.34% WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2008 TOTAL VOTES: 107264 That's a pretty unremarkable field, and Galaxy doesn't win by much. And then it goes out and wins the GotY poll convincingly and does well in the GotC poll, just a tad behind TP. (Unfortunately Assassin's Creed didn't even make the GotY polls so we can't compare the two post-release.) --- Mustache...and FastFalcon... |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 12/8/2008 9:49:09 AM | message detail |
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And, on the topic of Ocarina killing Mario 64, yes that was a terrible
result. But don't forget that Ocarina whomped 007 and FFVII manhandled
MGS. Simply being overshadowed by Big Brother on the N64/PSX was
apparently a big deal, and then you have an actual SFF situation
between Zelda and Mario. (Man FFVII/FFT would have been ugly.) On that note, I think Super Mario 64, The Legend of Zelda, and Final Fantasy Tactics are probably the three most intriguing games that we saw last contest, and there's a decent chance that the latter two get snubbed, which is unfortunate. --- Mustache...and FastFalcon... |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/8/2008 10:35:22 AM | message detail |
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There's no reason to actually believe this other than personal
preference. MM was outclassed and overshadowed by OoT on the 64, and WW
has already proved itself to be pretty capable, despite the hate it
gets around here. There's absolutely no reason to see both in, and if I
had to pick one to see it'd definitely be WW again. Wind Waker was benefitting from being the only Zelda game released in about 5 or 6 years in 2004, and one of the few reasons to own a cube. Top that off with a little franchise voting and you have an overrated bust that probably won't make it in this year. Majora's Mask has aged much better and I would peg it to be this year about as strong as Wind Waker was in '04. Wind Waker will have dropped off the map much harder than MM. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me. |
| transience | Posted 12/8/2008 10:40:02 AM | message detail |
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I doubt FFT loses by more than Xenogears did, and that wasn't really
that that far from FF7/MGS. given that FFT has a hardcore backing (it
*is* the FF7 of its genre) and FFX/FFTA, I don't think it'd be *that*
bad. I agree though, those three are very interesting. the problem is that instead of pushing for those, we're pushing for FF9 and Majora's Mask. whoops. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/8/2008 10:42:51 AM | message detail |
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I'm only pushing for FF9 so we can see it completely bomb against
whatever competition it goes up against. I have a feeling we'll be
seeing 8 or 4 long before 9 ever gets into a bracket. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 12/8/2008 10:45:03 AM | message detail |
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I suppose you're right, I didn't remember FFTA holding up as well as it
did (seriously, 33%?). But Xenogears level (~20%) is still pretty ugly,
especially if you think MGS should have gotten 35% or so. Not quite
Link/Ganondorf, but not terribly far off either. --- Mustache...and FastFalcon... |
| transience | Posted 12/8/2008 10:47:57 AM | message detail |
|
I think we've proven the FF7/MGS theory false -- FF7 just dominates
that generation. I mean, Snake just up and beat Cloud a couple weeks
ago. bandwagon/format or not, that's still pretty much impossible. if
FF7 SFFs MGS, it SFFs anything from that entire console. you can make
this argument for OOT as well (and some have -- it's probably even
worse for the 64 since it had less notable games) --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 12/8/2008 10:54:35 AM | message detail |
|
I would make the latter argument (hesitantly before last month, with
certainty now). MGS and 007 almost have to be stronger than what they
showed against FFVII and OoT, respectively. MGS2 extrapolates out to
32% on FFVII through a very clean path (just Melee), and I think most
people would agree that MGS > MGS2. You can't make exactly the same
case for 007 since we don't have anything to compare it too, but the
parallels between the two are pretty strong. Kinda sucks that the only two intergenerational matches with the big boys that we saw were FFVII/Melee and FFVII/CT, and in both cases the weaker game held up well (surprisingly well in CT's case). I'm kinda curious if FFVII could dominate something like MGS2/3 the same way it did MGS. --- Mustache...and FastFalcon... |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/8/2008 10:59:31 AM | message detail |
|
The idea of LoZ:MM now being where LoZ:WW in 2004 was is mockable,
honestly. LoZ:WW was a GotY-winner and was jacked up in the x-stats
thanks to Starcraft...plus LoZ:MM is much older now than LoZ:WW was
then. It is also arguable that LoZ:MM is more love-hate than LoZ:WW and
we saw in the Top 100 List LoZ:MM is at best equal to LoZ:WW. LoZ:MM would do well in a contest, but it wouldn't look like LoZ:WW in BGE-2004. It's uncertain at best that LoZ:MM > today's LoZ:WW, which would be lower than we saw in 2004. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| transience | Posted 12/8/2008 11:16:29 AM | message detail |
|
I was prepared to argue against you, so I hit up the polls to see what
I could find.. and found absolutely nothing kind to Majora's Mask. I
still think they'd be pretty close, but I think you're looking at
Majora's Mask as the FF8 to Wind Waker's FF10 - Majora disappointed
most fans of a hugely popular game of the generation; Wind Waker was on
its own console and is far enough removed from Ocarina to just be
accepted as a Zelda game. that said, it's tough to take favourite Zelda polls too seriously when you're looking at OOT destroying the crap out of MM, just like it's tough to take FF8 too seriously in the same situation with FF7. for the record - Poll 1225 (04/12/2003) What's your favorite Zelda game? 4372 7.63% Legend of Zelda 15079 26.32% Link to the Past 2499 4.36% Link's Awakening 2473 4.32% Majora's Mask 20818 36.34% Ocarina of Time 1244 2.17% Oracle of Ages/Seasons 9394 16.40% Wind Waker 1402 2.45% Zelda II: Adventure of Link TOTAL VOTES: 57281 --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
