GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 646
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 1:29:16 PM | message detail |
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From: Gaddswell | #100 MyWorldIsCrono (#099) Wow, really? 20% seems a bit small Why? Warcraft 3 had about 2 million sales, Warcraft 2 had about 1.5 mil... and theres currently over 11 million subscribers on wow --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 1:30:55 PM | message detail |
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The fact that you're comparing Arthas' performance this year to
Kerrigan's performance last year is ludicrous, Albion. Kerrigan faced
Samus, Frog, and Axel. Arthas faced Mega Man, KOS-MOS, and Diablo last
year. Samus > Mega Man Frog > KOS-MOS Axel probably > Diablo --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 1:34:00 PM | message detail |
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When did I say I compared Arthas to Kerrigan last year? I'm comparing him to Kerrigan ANY YEAR when she sucked after year And Axel does NOT > Diablo, unless you think somehow Axel is able to put up 33% against Sonic 1v1 But even using a very LFF'd Arthas from last year, look at him against previous versions of Kerrigan: Sarah Kerrigan (2006c) VS Arthas (2007c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 13.93. Arthas has a strength of 16.78. Arthas wins with 58.49% of the vote! A win of 20,904 with 123,077 total votes cast. Sarah Kerrigan (2005c) VS Arthas (2007c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95. Arthas has a strength of 16.78. Arthas wins with 55.45% of the vote! A win of 13,345 with 122,362 total votes cast. And Arthas was alot stronger once you got him away from Diablo who was leeching all his votes. Arthas would easily do 75/25 from this years xstats I'd say --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 1:39:53 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2939 you have to love it --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 1:40:02 PM | message detail |
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Um, right, Arthas was being leached by Diablo. But what happened
there...? Diablo should've been able to get third at least, but
finishes last in a poll that he could've just as easily finished
second. As for Diablo, let's just say that he probably got overrated
due to the Villains Contest, seeing as alomst everyone aside from
G-dorf, Bowser and Sephiroth was weak. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 1:41:07 PM | message detail |
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Um, right, Arthas was being leached by Diablo. But what happened
there...? Diablo should've been able to get third at least, but
finishes last in a poll that he could've just as easily finished second. What do you mean, what happened there? Diablo and Arthas, the 2 strongest Blizzard characters, weer LFF'd to hell by eachother, and let a weaker Kos Mos advance over both of them. Is that too hard to understand? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 1:42:29 PM | message detail |
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What do you mean, what happened there? Diablo and Arthas, the 2
strongest Blizzard characters, weer LFF'd to hell by eachother, and let
a weaker Kos Mos advance over both of them. Is that too hard to
understand? I understand that much, but who'd be stronger in a direct matchup is the question of the day. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 1:43:17 PM | message detail |
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Of who? Arthas vs. Diablo, or Diablo vs. Kos Mos? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 1:44:05 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2767 a game to be feared --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 1:44:15 PM | message detail |
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Arthas vs. Diablo. I think KOS-MOS would be no match for either of them nowadays. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 1:45:28 PM | message detail |
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I'd say Arthas would beat him by a tiny bit now due to Wotlk being brand new, but once Diablo 3 comes out, Diablo may beat him. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| transience | Posted 12/4/2008 1:56:34 PM | message detail |
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World of Warcraft has a better chance to win the contest than Chrono Trigger does. that said, it's like .0000001% to 0%. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:04:41 PM | message detail |
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In terms of chances to win the contest: FFVII > OOT >>>> SC > WoW > CT >> All Others That said, I'd be willing to give as high a probability as 10% that neither FFVII nor OOT wins. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/4/2008 2:04:55 PM | message detail |
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i'm seriously confused on how WoW managed to beat GTA as a series... it just... i just dont understand how it was possible. mass anti-voting? mass rallying? --- *is Dranze* Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2008 2:06:04 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, the chance of a surprise (non-FFVII/OoT) winner is far, far lower
than any character contest. If we had to goof around and pick some,
though, I'd say it's a toss-up between Mario 3 and WoW. I think the
odds of WoW rallying to that
extent are about as likely as SMB3 pulling a Mario/Cloud against FFVII
in the finals (assuming FFVII took care of Ocarina earlier). --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:06:23 PM | message detail |
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That was the Warcraft series, not just WoW. Even Civilization broke 10%
on Legend of Zelda. Plus, Gamefaqs does not like GTA....it wouldn't
have fared any better, and probably would have fared worse, against SMB
the next round. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:07:46 PM | message detail |
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It was rallying. Warcraft had no business winning that match without rallying --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 2:10:40 PM | message detail |
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Also, there was vote stuffing for Grand Theft Auto (though both sides
hurled accusations of stuffing, ironically, the only stuffers caught
were stuffing for GTA). --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:11:43 PM | message detail |
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Warcraft would very very likely have broken 49% without rallying;
almost certainly it would have broken 48%. It was legitimately on GTA's
level. And yeah, SMB3 is the other game that has a non-trivial chance of winning it all- it belongs with the SC/WoW/CT group. I disagree that the chances of a surprise winner are lower than in a character contest though- at least for a 1v1 character battle. The reason is that we haven't had a Games Contest in 4 years, games =/= characters, and a lot could have changed. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2008 2:12:16 PM | message detail |
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Plus, Gamefaqs does not like GTA.... Therein the mystery lies, though. If you had looked at every piece of evidence since 2001 (GotY voting, FAQs popularity and longevity, and Vice City's performance in the games contest), then GameFAQs loved GTA. There's a reason some people would have taken GTA over Metal Gear in the series contest; people never thought it could do so poorly because there was no evidence to suggest it. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:12:49 PM | message detail |
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Warcraft would very very likely have broken 49% without rallying;
almost certainly it would have broken 48%. It was legitimately on GTA's
level. Wasn't the oracle prediction like GTA - 55%? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:13:42 PM | message detail |
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From: PartOfYourWorld | #120 GTA is another one of those situations that characters don't equal game popularity. GTA has been very popular here, but just isn't really a character driven game. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 12/4/2008 2:14:17 PM | message detail |
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You know a game that can beat WoW because it got more players? Super Mario Bros. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:14:25 PM | message detail |
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Warcraft beating GTA really wasn't that
big of a deal. It's not like GTA would have amounted to much more than
Warcraft. It lost due to rallying, but people tend to overrate how
significant a factor that is. Rallying will win you a close match, but
if you can't keep it close under normal conditions, rallying won't do a
thing. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:15:22 PM | message detail |
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| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/4/2008 2:15:37 PM | message detail |
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GTA is another one of those situations that characters don't equal
game popularity. GTA has been very popular here, but just isn't really
a character driven game. This. After all, Tommy Vercetti barely doubled Kite in his first contest ever. The same can be said for Axel Steel in the 2008 Character Battle. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." -Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:15:51 PM | message detail |
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Rallying will win you a close match, but if you can't keep it close under normal conditions, rallying won't do a thing. This is generally true, but do you think Starcraft without rallying/stuffing really would of been able to b that close to Wind Waker and Melee? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:17:31 PM | message detail |
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I'm not sure where people are getting an idea that CT even belongs in
the whole 'less than 1% chance of winning the contest' group. I'd
sooner take a game like TP to beat CT before I would take it to win a
contest. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:19:44 PM | message detail |
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From: ZFS | #128 LttP is the second most popular Zelda game, and CT beat that pre DS boost. Why would TP beat it? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:20:04 PM | message detail |
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Rallying will win you a close match, but if you can't keep it close under normal conditions, rallying won't do a thing. Yes. 55-45 in a match with 140,000 votes is 14,000 votes. You have to get at least 48% before you can realistically even start thinking about rallying. It seemed that Starcraft could rally any number of votes that it needed to win, but this was not really true- it would have gotten over 48% against any of its opponents without any rallying or stuffing. Almost as big a miracle as the comebacks was the fact that SC kept progressively stronger opponents close enough for it to make the comebacks, probably through bandwagoning. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| GameZACKS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:23:12 PM | message detail |
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| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:23:41 PM | message detail |
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CT has a non-trivial chance of winning the contest because CTDS has a huge
range of potential, from a small boost to literally the greatest boost
we have ever seen. Giving TP a higher chance of beating CT than CT has
of beating FFVII/OOT doesn't mean that CT can't have, say, a 1% chance
of winning. Same thing goes for World of Warcraft, a game that I would take DKC2 over. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| GameZACKS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:25:04 PM | message detail |
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LttP is the second most popular Zelda game, and CT beat that pre DS boost. Why would TP beat it? Because that was pre-Crono falling off the map? --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:25:35 PM | message detail |
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Same thing goes for World of Warcraft, a game that I would take DKC2 over. If Arthas ended up stronger then Diddy (which he did), when Blizzard characters are not as strong as their game counterparts, why would any sane person then call DKC2 over WoW? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2008 2:26:13 PM | message detail |
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Not a lot of people were willing to give warcraft a shot back then at the match. It was Funk, Turtle, and maybe a handful of others. That was it. This is one of the matches that people can't seem to look back on without hindsight. It was really, really surprising. Forget giving Warcraft a chance; before the contest started, every piece of evidence we had suggested that the GTA games (not talking characters here) would be able to contend with Metal Gear. It has to rank among the biggest bombs ever. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2008 2:26:19 PM | message detail |
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Starcraft is still one of the top games of the site, especially for PC.
No, it wouldn't have gotten so close to Halo/LoZ:WW without rallying,
but it would have done have still held up relatively fine without it
(it still soundly beat KH without a peep from b.net) and it still was a
top-twenty game from the Top 100 List (including beating Diablo 2,
Warcraft 3, and WoW). WoW cannot compete with KH without rallying, not
even close. Oh, sure, it may be able to rally more (which, for the record, is unproven here), but WoW's in much more of a disadvantage. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:27:27 PM | message detail |
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People look too much into the fact Warcraft was killed round 2 to MARIO
BROS. Any non top series would be killed by Mario Bros, but the fact it
was able to beat a series that people were really high on says alot. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:28:23 PM | message detail |
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Oh, sure, it may be able to rally more (which, for the record, is unproven here), but WoW's in much more of a disadvantage. The fact that a low level random monster from a starting zone was able to be rallied to beat Ramza isn't proof enough? lol --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2008 2:28:42 PM | message detail |
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Zack showed us that even FF7 characters have a limit. Saying Hogger
barely beating Ramza is disappointing is like saying Midgar Zolom
losing to Jill/Ocelot was out of left field. WoW will do great against everything not Mario. It all depends on what it draws for a path. I can see it destroying games like Kingdom Hearts or Halo, but I would take most main-series Mario games over it, with the obvious exception of Sunshine. You have to realize, when you bring in voters from the outside of this site, their tastes are going to differ from the norm, and I would imagine there's a much lower Final Fantasy playership amongst WoW players compared to this site's users. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me. |
| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:29:33 PM | message detail |
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| ZFS | Posted 12/4/2008 2:29:58 PM | message detail |
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This is generally true, but do you think Starcraft without
rallying/stuffing really would of been able to b that close to Wind
Waker and Melee? StarCraft wasn't entirely a product of rallying - it had that 'bandwagon effect' to go along with it, and we've seen what that can do with L-Block and Snake. This place was all about StarCraft when it managed to beat Halo. And when it took an easy win over Kingdom Hearts, it got that much more support. It was a 16-seed taking down popular games that most didn't figure it could. But StarCraft had - and has - legitimate strength. It used rallying to win matches, but it's not as though it was a weak game. It had to use rallying to beat Halo, but it had kept it close enough for that rallying to make the difference. Halo level strength is plenty strong to be able to pull off what it did. Now, Halo-level isn't enough to beat The Wind Waker, but that's where that whole bandwagon and rallying comes into play. StarCraft had managed to stick within striking distance of it. You can't expect anything to be able to replicate the run StarCraft had. Looking at it now, there couldn't have been a better route of games for it to go up against and to build steam than what it had. We won't see it do that again this year - and certainly not World of Warcraft, which shouldn't even be close to StarCraft's natural strength. --- http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2008 2:30:22 PM | message detail |
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fIt was Funk, Turtle, and maybe a handful of others. That was it.
This is one of the matches that people can't seem to look back on
without hindsight. It was really, really surprising. Forget giving
Warcraft a chance; before the contest started, every piece of evidence
we had suggested that the GTA games (not talking characters here) would
be able to contend with Metal Gear. It has to rank among the biggest
bombs ever. I was more surprised that GTA kept it as close as it did. I was expecting a 55-45 blowout in Warcraft's favour. Though we can't really know if that was Warcraft bombing or GTA impressing, since Warcraft went up against a series that renders any rallying power useless. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2008 2:30:30 PM | message detail |
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The fact that a low level random monster from a starting zone was able to be rallied to beat Ramza isn't proof enough? lol The fact that Ramza was on-par with Laharl reminds me just how impressive that really was. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:30:42 PM | message detail |
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Hogger is the equivilant to Midgar Zolom in FF7. If Midgay Zolom was
able to do anywhere near as good as Hogger did, you'd all be shocked
and amazed. He's just a random low level monster. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 12/4/2008 2:31:41 PM | message detail |
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So...are there any rematches that people want to see in the upcoming
contest (aside from FFVII/OoT, of course, and possibly CT/LttP)? --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/4/2008 2:31:53 PM | message detail |
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*Midgar Zolom, not Midgay. Damn typo >.< --- http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2008 2:32:58 PM | message detail |
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Starcraft didn't fold to Wind Waker or SSBM, and as strong as SMB is,
there were a lot of series that could break 20% on it. As for DKC2/WoW,
is Arthas even stronger than DK? DKC2 ought to be a much stronger game
than DK is a character, who is in turn much stronger than Diddy. I do
not buy WoW being relatively stronger than Arthas in anything but rally
power- Starcraft/Kerrigan is not a good comparison here because again,
Gamefaqs actually likes Starcraft. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2008 2:33:29 PM | message detail |
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I want to see the almost-a-rematch of SMB3/LoZ:LttP, but as for other actual rematches...not any I can think of off-hand. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 12/4/2008 2:33:54 PM | message detail |
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there were a lot of series that could break 20% on it. Indirectly, maybe. Directly is another story altogether. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-withtoupee.gif |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2008 2:34:04 PM | message detail |
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I wanna see SF2 vs SMRPG again. Metal Gear/FFT would be another good one since both have reason to have boosted. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me. |
