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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 645

red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 1:29:42 PM | message detail
That VC poll is very impressive for Earthbound indeed. It got much close to Chrono Trigger than it was to the #3 game, notably doubling FFVI and almost doubling Megaman X, which doesn't have FFVI's excuse of SFF.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Dilated Chemist | Posted 12/3/2008 1:29:56 PM | message detail
8) Halo 3
9) Call of Duty 4

I really want this in the bracket. I'd go with COD4 in a hearbeat.

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GT: TriggerTRE
FastFalcon PUNCH'D -
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 1:37:34 PM | message detail
I would take CoD4 to beat Halo 3 by a closer margin than the GotY-polls suggested, though I would take Halo 1 and Halo 2 over both of them. Halo 3 seemed to disappoint too many people and other FPS's have gotten MUCH more popular since the first Halo, though the Halo name and being the only Halo game on the 360 probably helps it stand the test of time a little better now.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 1:49:40 PM | message detail
I should think Melee's path is the obvious problem.

yeah, this is the Big Problem. I just don't see a way around it - you either wreck good matchups, put it in the same division as Brawl or feed it to OOT/FF7. you can switch around Melee and Brawl but at this point I think they're the same thing, kinda like Mega Man and MMX.

I thought the problem was either the decent chance of LoZ:OoT/LoZ:TP or CT/LoZ:LttP being in the Sweet Sixteen.

this isn't really a problem to me - LTTP was a 6 seed in 2004, there's bigger Zelda games, and I'm really not worried about potential SFF matches when OOT would lay waste to everything anyway.

LIVE Activity for week of November 24th
Xbox 360 Top Live Titles (based on UU’s)
1 Halo 3
2 Gears of War 2
3 CoD: World at War
4 Call of Duty 4
5 GTA IV
6 Fable II
7 Left 4 Dead
8 Madden NFL 09
9 Fallout 3
10 FIFA 09


I was going to post this. COD4 had been wasting Halo 3 week in and week out until World at War came and essentially LFFed it. when World at War's popularity fades - and it will - I expect to see COD4 > Halo 3 > Gears 2 regularly again. COD4 may not be mega popular but when it comes to World of Warcraft, it may not need to be. doubting COD4 is kind of a Bad Idea after we saw it take every multiplatform title to school and then waste the god of modern FPS games not once, but twice.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
TestIcicles | Posted 12/3/2008 1:51:10 PM | message detail
Halo > Halo 2 >>> CoD 4 > H3

imo
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mmm test icicles
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 1:54:41 PM | message detail
I'd put COD4 on par with Halo 1. Agree with the ranking otherwise.

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HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 2:04:14 PM | message detail
So how did CoD4 do in those Live-lists pre-CoD:WaW?
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 2:05:55 PM | message detail
Oh, and even if CoD:WaW hurt CoD4's original popularity a little, it's also bringing in more CoD-fans and CoD4 is still the gem of the series...thus not exactly hurting CoD4 here.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 2:07:27 PM | message detail
here's October 27

1 Call of Duty 4
2 Halo 3
3 Fable II
4 Gears of War
5 FIFA 09
6 World at War Beta
7 Saints Row 2
8 GTA IV
9 Madden NFL 09
10 Fallout 3

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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 2:08:14 PM | message detail
and mind you, this is only one system - COD4 also hits the PS3, something Halo obviously does not.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/3/2008 2:35:57 PM | message detail
Anyone else think GTA4 is going to flop? After all, GTA characters and games have never looked impressive in these contests.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest!
Megaman703 | Posted 12/3/2008 2:37:40 PM | message detail
GTA VC did pretty good. The problem is the characters are pretty bad.
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"Your daddy was quite the warrior. Do you measure up to him?"
"I don't know. I didn't bring my ruler."
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 2:39:36 PM | message detail
GTA: VC's performance on SSBM still surprises me. I really doubt it would get anywhere near that close to Melee in a rematch though.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Master Moltar | Posted 12/3/2008 2:40:06 PM | message detail
Hard for it to flop when I have rather low expectations for it.

And I can't wait to see what game WoW gets argued against tomorrow. At this rate potenitally half the field vs. WoW will already be thoroughly analyzed before the bracket is even released!
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Moltar Status: yessssssss
all hail FastFalcon the king of the guru
Megaman703 | Posted 12/3/2008 2:40:32 PM | message detail
obviously not VC, but I'd take 2k8 GTA4 over 2k4 GTAVC.
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"Your daddy was quite the warrior. Do you measure up to him?"
"I don't know. I didn't bring my ruler."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 2:48:21 PM | message detail
obviously not VC, but I'd take 2k8 GTA4 over 2k4 GTAVC.

i'm not sure about that; at least significantly. GTA4 just kinda.. faded away.

Vice City did far better in polls in its prime than GTA4 surely did.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/3/2008 2:53:46 PM | message detail
I fully expect GTAIV to fall flat on its face.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
croy3 | Posted 12/3/2008 2:55:36 PM | message detail
i wish on b8wiki all the post analysis's were up =/
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Board 8 rox ur sox
Yesmar | Posted 12/3/2008 3:00:55 PM | message detail
The only issue I have with the Earthbound poll is that people didn't have to play the game to vote for it. I don't remember what I voted for in that poll, but I've voted for games in those polls that I've never played before.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 3:02:00 PM | message detail
In GTA:VC's prime, it lost to SSBM one-on-one with 46.46%.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1648

In GTA4's prime, it lost to SSBB in a multi-way poll with 40.65%.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3164

The issues become how big of a spread there is with SSBM/SSBB and if you think MGS4 hurts GTA4's PS3-fanbase or not. Personally, I think GTA4 now > GTA:VC then; this year have been expected to be a year of power-houses for a long time, everyone thought these three would smoke SMG last year, and the reviews/ownership/scores support all of this. I figure SSBB >= SSBM and MGS4 has a choke-hold on the PS3; if it wasn't for MGS4, I would expect GTA4 to be making a much closer run for GotY this year...regardless of Niko (who was still stronger than Kefka, something CJ can't say and Vercetti barely did).
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 3:03:51 PM | message detail
I agree with your concern Yesmar. Still, PW's hype-polls of people who wanted to play them never approached those numbers (barely approached half of EB's percentage) and was against much weaker competition as far as hype or anticipation goes. That still doesn't bode well for PW in my book, no matter the clash in style of polls.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:06:54 PM | message detail
that poll is whack anyway -- three-way Square LFF. we've seen what that can do to the oddball out -- I'm looking at you, Zack.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 3:07:56 PM | message detail
Even still, it clearly beat MMX and SMK with ease.

Just saying, EB looked good no matter what in that poll.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 12/3/2008 3:08:00 PM | message detail
Don't you mean Mewtwo, tran?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest!
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:11:08 PM | message detail
Earthbound is like Chrono Trigger-lite -- one of the most dedicated fanbases we've seen. I think that really helps in a poll like that.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:16:41 PM | message detail
so anyway, for that bracket, improvements would be to make better fodder matches and to move Pokemon Red around, probably. any other suggestions? I wanna drop this in the SB topic.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 3:21:20 PM | message detail

From: Master Moltar | #364
Hard for it to flop when I have rather low expectations for it.

And I can't wait to see what game WoW gets argued against tomorrow. At this rate potenitally half the field vs. WoW will already be thoroughly analyzed before the bracket is even released!



WoW vs. Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney
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http://card.mygamercard.net/nxe/Albion+Hero.png
FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:24:54 PM | message detail
yeah, we might need to just enforce a no-World of Warcraft rule in here. just let it go.

I'm sure people will bite anyway though so whatever
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
KamikazePotato | Posted 12/3/2008 3:26:30 PM | message detail
Bracket is missing MGS2 a.k.a. one of the best games ever

Other than that it's pretty good!

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:27:22 PM | message detail
With the exception of Melee, that bracket looks good.

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Gaddswell | Posted 12/3/2008 3:27:30 PM | message detail
WoW is the next Zack
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:28:18 PM | message detail
by all means, find a better spot for Melee. it'll just involve switching out another game to sacrifice to FF7.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:29:07 PM | message detail
I'd feed Call of Duty 4 to Final Fantasy VII before I would Melee.

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http://i36.tinypic.com/2hehbis.gif
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:30:08 PM | message detail
Melee would waste that eightpack though. I'd rather drop one strong game to preserve an eightpack of debatable matches.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:30:15 PM | message detail
Although I guess that ruins a couple of matches and ends with Melee losing to Ocarina.

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ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:40:33 PM | message detail
~2~

4 - Zelda: Twilight Princess
13 - Devil May Cry

4 - Gears of War
13 - Street Fighter II


whoops !

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trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:41:05 PM | message detail
uhh my bad
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:43:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:43:33 PM | message detail
I was going to say say mess with the seeding a bit and stick Melee in Gears' spot, but then you get a brutal CT/ALttP/Melee eightpack within the first few rounds.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 12/3/2008 3:45:36 PM | message detail
Big update to the Bracket Analysis Thingy!

I plugged the current numbers from the Nomination Tally into the system and acted as if they were the complete nom results site-wide for the season. As in, those are worth 2/6, Pro Reviews worth 2/6, and Reader Reviews/MG Scores worth 1/6 each. So basically this is as close as we'll get to seeing what this year's bracket would look like if B8 were the only ones to send in nominations.

Give it a look!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46919575

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:49:47 PM | message detail
heh, CT/LTTP/Melee/Brawl/Mario 64/FF6 in one division, MGS4/FF7/Metroid Prime/Halo in another. talk about disparity.

not a bad idea, but I feel like that's overkill.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 3:52:12 PM | message detail
okay, fixed a few things, moved a few matchups around and did my best to avoid Nintendo/Nintendo matches. leaving Melee where it is for now.

~1~

1 - Zelda: Ocarina of Time
16 - Persona 3

8 - Portal
9 - Donkey Kong Country 2

5 - Mega Man 2
12 - Starfox 64

4 - Grand Theft Auto 4
13 - Final Fantasy IX

6 - Super Metroid
11 - Castlevania: Symphony of the Night

3 - Call of Duty 4
14 - World of Warcraft

7 - Kingdom Hearts
10 - Metal Gear Solid 3

2 - Resident Evil 4
15 - Disgaea: Hour of Darkness

~2~

1 - Super Mario Galaxy
16 - Fire Emblem (GBA)

8 - Starcraft
9 - Final Fantasy Tactics

5 - Metal Gear Solid
12 - Sonic the Hedgehog 2

4 - Zelda: Twilight Princess
13 - Devil May Cry

6 - Pokemon Red
11 - Guitar Hero 2

3 - Final Fantasy X
14 - Earthbound

7 - Tales of Symphonia
10 - Okami

2 - Super Mario Bros. 3
15 - Kingdom Hearts 2

~3~

1 - Chrono Trigger
16 - Soul Calibur

8 - Fallout 3
9 - Mario Kart 64

5 - Zelda: Link to the Past
12 - The World Ends With You

4 - Gears of War
13 - Street Fighter II

6 - Bioshock
11 - Kirby Super Star

3 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
14 - Chrono Cross

7 - Final Fantasy VI
10 - Animal Crossing

2 - Mario 64
15 - Diablo 2

~4~

1 - Metal Gear Solid 4
16 - Super Mario RPG

8 - Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
9 - God of War 2

5 - Halo
12 - Zelda: Majora's Mask

4 - Metroid Prime
13 - Pokemon Diamond

6 - LittleBigPlanet
11 - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney

3 - Super Smash Bros. Melee
14 - Fable 2

7 - Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island
10 - Half-Life 2

2 - Final Fantasy VII
15 - Left 4 Dead
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 3:53:15 PM | message detail
1 - Chrono Trigger
16 - Soul Calibur

8 - Tales of Symphonia
9 - Okami

5 - Zelda: Link to the Past
12 - The World Ends With You

4 - Super Smash Bros. Melee
13 - Street Fighter II

Looking at it, that's not too bad. It's three of the top ten games concentrated in a few matches, but we're going to lose two of them either way - ALttP or CT in round 3, Melee in round 2. Think this makes it a lot harder to predict and more debatable, though you do have to knock Melee down a seed. Don't know if you were going for strict seeding when you did this or not.

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trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 4:00:17 PM | message detail
seeding's no thing, but absolutely stacking a division is something I'm trying to avoid -- going for a "realistic" bracket instead of a home run, not to mention that I'd be putting Melee and Brawl in the same division.

be a pretty cool setup if Melee and Brawl won out, though.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 4:04:01 PM | message detail
Yeah. That's a good point - it'd make the division stacked, and Brawl's already there so there's almost no reason to stick Melee there. Guess there's no spot for it, unless you redid the whole bracket. No need to do that for one game either when the rest of the bracket is great.

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trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 4:07:01 PM | message detail
there's one other option, sorta -- move FF7 and OOT to the same half. I used to be an advocate of this in old brackets, but I think FF7 vs. OOT has become so huge that it has to be the final now. if that happened, then we could throw some wild semifinal matches in there. CT/LTTP/Melee/Brawl/Mario 3 free-for-all in the semis, aw yeah.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 4:28:34 PM | message detail
FFVII/OOT not being the final is fine with me. Having top 5 games go out in round 3 (or even round 2!) is a bit much to preserve a final that is not likely to be close anyway. That's not to say that OOT can't win, but it is unlikely, whoever wins, that it will be close. Link/Cloud 2003 didn't lose much from being in the semis instead of the finals.

Keeping the basic structure of that bracket, I would perhaps switch Melee and TP. That gives us the SMB3/SSBM match we've wanted to see for 4 years. That, or switch Melee and Brawl, giving Melee the shot at CT/LTTP it's earned, and giving Brawl its chance to dethrone FFVII, as some people have hyped it to do the past few years, and its comeuppance when it fails. Even if you don't want to Brawl to fail though, an FFVII/Brawl match would be undoubtedly more exciting than an FFVII/Melee match because we've already seen FFVII/Melee, and Brawl is at this point the defining game of this console generation, and neither game has any real chance of beating FFVII. Brawl is also probably weaker, and would have less chance of making it close against CT/LTTP.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
trannyscience | Posted 12/3/2008 4:38:02 PM | message detail
I don't disagree with you, really.. I just think that we've got a five year hyped final and it should be commemorated as such. your opinion on FF7/OOT "not being close" is not the consensus either. your other ideas are pretty good too but I think TP needs to be tested just as much as Brawl and I'd hate to feed it like that. maybe I can find another game to feed to FF7 -- Mario 3, maybe? I dunno.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 4:47:02 PM | message detail
Switching Melee and TP is a terrible idea. If you're going to switch it with something, it's best to do it with a weaker game or one we already have a good grip on. Doing that with TP, which is more than likely a top 10 game and needs to get a good route, is just no good. The division gets worse if you throw Melee in there, too. Just bad news all around.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/3/2008 5:16:04 PM | message detail
Once again, aside from the poll that took place shortly after it released, why are people so high up on Twilight Princess?

I haven't heard a single soul talk about that game since the Wii came out. Too many good games have come out since, and it doesn't have the timeless qualities to allow it to stay strong. At best, it's slightly above Wind Waker. At worst, weaker than LoZ
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
FastFalcon is apparantly better at contesty stuff than me.
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