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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 645

Gaddswell | Posted 12/3/2008 4:57:27 AM | message detail
ToS / Okami looks like a fun match!

Sad to see SMRPG be a 16 seed on there though.
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transience | Posted 12/3/2008 5:07:56 AM | message detail
eh, that was a last-second thing I threw in when I realized I had one game twice. I wasn't even going to include it - got enough Mario in there - but figured it'd be a nice 16 seed to have instead of some random quadrupling.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 5:12:12 AM | message detail
plus, you can almost make a case for Mario RPG winning against a game on a system with less than 50% ownership. you probably won't get much support but it's not impossible.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2008 5:35:43 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 would get enough franchise voting and hype voting to get past something like Mario RPG.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 5:52:38 AM | message detail
Super Mario RPG is on VC however, so i'm kinda on the edge on it.

yeah, not impossible, but i dont feel confident in either pick entirely.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2008 5:53:48 AM | message detail
Virtual Console is a non-factor.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 6:08:44 AM | message detail
i'm sure it'd help something as obscure (or slightly obscure) or old as SMRPG with a new userbase.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 6:45:49 AM | message detail
Mario RPG shot up the top FAQs page when the VC port came out. that was pretty impressive.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
Mac Arrowny | Posted 12/3/2008 7:19:37 AM | message detail
Complaints: Persona 3 is up against probably the second worst opponent it could have (FFX might be worse). Fire Emblem's up against a Nintendo opponent too, but not one I'm expecting it to share much overlap with. (yes I know these are minor complaints)
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As is FastFalcon
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 7:27:22 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 7:27:45 AM | message detail
Mario RPG has some serious strength: it beat Street Fighter 2 with 56% and only did about 6% worse on Chrono Trigger than Super Mario World did, even with possible SFF there. I'd take SMW over MGS4 without hesitation, so.....
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
transience | Posted 12/3/2008 7:29:34 AM | message detail
I'm amazed no one's picked up on the bigger problem, one that you can't really solve. Persona 3 doing 15% on FF7 vs. 20% on something else isn't really a problem at all. I can move them around but when you're talking about fodder it doesn't matter.
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xyzzy
"I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon
charmander6000 | Posted 12/3/2008 7:36:37 AM | message detail
I've just realized that this bracket is going to be a ***** to predict

~1~

1 - Zelda: Ocarina of Time
16 - Left 4 Dead

8 - Portal
9 - Donkey Kong Country 2

5 - Mega Man 2
12 - Starfox 64

4 - Grand Theft Auto 4
13 - Final Fantasy IX

I have no faith in DKC2 and GTA4 is begging to flop. OoT steamrolls through everything.

6 - Super Metroid
11 - Castlevania: Symphony of the Night

3 - Call of Duty 4
14 - World of Warcraft

7 - Kingdom Hearts
10 - Metal Gear Solid 3

2 - Resident Evil 4
15 - Disgaea: Hour of Darkness

SM vs SotN was hard, WoW could lose in round 2 or 3, but right now I'll have it going to the division finals.

~2~

1 - Super Mario Galaxy
16 - Fire Emblem (GBA)

8 - Starcraft
9 - Final Fantasy Tactics

5 - Metal Gear Solid
12 - Sonic the Hedgehog 2

4 - Zelda: Twilight Princess
13 - Devil May Cry

IMO SMG, MGS and TP are around Starcraft's strength which rallying would be a factor.

6 - Fallout 3
11 - Mario Kart 64

3 - Final Fantasy X
14 - Earthbound

7 - Pokemon Red
10 - Guitar Hero 2

2 - Super Mario Bros. 3
15 - Kingdom Hearts 2

I'm assuming GoW vs SFII belongs to division 3. Nothing too interesting here though I know it is hard, but can you try to avoid Nintendo vs Nintendo matches, especially things like SMG vs. FE in round 1.

~3~

1 - Chrono Trigger
16 - Soul Calibur

8 - Tales of Symphonia
9 - Okami

5 - Zelda: Link to the Past
12 - The World Ends With You

4 - Gears of War
13 - Street Fighter II

I'm still sticking with CT, hopefully sales for CTDS have been good. I have no faith in ToS and SFII is not going to lose in round 1?

6 - Bioshock
11 - Kirby Super Star

3 - Super Smash Bros. Brawl
14 - Chrono Cross

7 - Final Fantasy VI
10 - Animal Crossing

2 - Mario 64
15 - Diablo 2

Another weird thing about this bracket is the seeding, but that doesn't matter, the quality of matches do. BS vs Kirby took be a while to figure out.

~4~

1 - Metal Gear Solid 4
16 - Super Mario RPG

8 - Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
9 - God of War 2

5 - Halo
12 - Zelda: Majora's Mask

4 - Metroid Prime
13 - Pokemon Diamond

After seeing Snake's performance I have high hopes for MGS4. SA vs GoW2 was difficult.

6 - LittleBigPlanet
11 - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney

3 - Super Smash Bros. Melee
14 - Fable 2

7 - Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island
10 - Half-Life 2

2 - Final Fantasy VII
15 - Persona 3

I don't see LBP having much strength, but it should still beat PW, HL2 and YI is going to be a tough match.

~Later Rounds~

1 - Zelda: Ocarina of Time
14 - World of Warcraft

8 - Starcraft
2 - Super Mario Bros. 3

1 - Chrono Trigger
7 - Final Fantasy VI

1 - Metal Gear Solid 4
2 - Final Fantasy VII

Blizzard hits a brick wall known as high tier Nintendo, winner of CT and LttP should have no problems with FFVI and FFVII will be watched for any signs of weakness. Semi-finals are a formality and the real battle begins in the final. I'm backing FFVII this year, but others may not.
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 8:15:37 AM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 4 would get enough franchise voting and hype voting to get past something like Mario RPG.

Don't know that I would be so sure of that. MGS4 would be up there with MGS1 if it were on a system with some real ownership, but when it's on a system with 33% ownership? Bad news. Probably be a lot closer than most would give credit.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 8:40:55 AM | message detail
i would never take WoW over CoD4. i just cant see it.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/3/2008 8:46:26 AM | message detail
i would never take WoW over CoD4. i just cant see it.

I'm not sure whether you have too much faith in CoD4 or not enough in WoW. Nothing has ever shown that the CoD series has any strength. Personally I see WoW keeping up with things like Half-Life.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
Ngamer64 | Posted 12/3/2008 8:52:10 AM | message detail
I'm the biggest DKC2 fan around, and even I have to admit it's not going to be worth a ton in this bracket. Even so I really want to see either it or DKC1 just once so we can know for sure.

Still have one nomination left, and I think I'm going to give it to Mario RPG, just on the basis of the crazy matchup problems it could create in R1 for anything aside from top tier Nintendo/Square.

Strong disagreement on VC being a non-factor. Granted its not going to do anything for games with massive exposure like Ocarina, but for somewhat-forgotten older games that people might have loved at the time but not played in 10 years, like say Earthbound or Mario RPG, it could prove very helpful.

And now to try my hand at this tranny bracket!

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ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 8:54:46 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2994

That's an impressive show for COD4.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/3/2008 8:58:34 AM | message detail
Biggest problem with transience's bracket - bad placement for Chrono Cross !

Also LttP/CT happens too soon, I think.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2008 9:05:02 AM | message detail
I love Mario RPG, one of my favorite games. I just don't think it can handle a big game like MGS4. With that 33% ownership, it was still able to hang with Brawl earlier this year in that one poll.
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ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 9:07:48 AM | message detail
MGS4 will thrive in a multi-way format because of its lower ownership. There's a large chunk of that 30%+ that owns MGS4 that absolutely loves it - especially when put up against anything from this year. If you put that in a one-on-one format, where that 30%+ may vote for it but the rest of the site that hasn't? I doubt that ends well. Brawl would crush MGS4 in a 1v1, I think, but it may not be too far ahead of it come the GotY poll.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 9:07:57 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #265
i would never take WoW over CoD4. i just cant see it.



CoD4 isn't popular here, I don't even think CoD4 will make the bracket if its 64 since its the old game now, everyone who played it has moved onto World at War
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
RPGuy96 | Posted 12/3/2008 9:08:53 AM | message detail
I should think Melee's path is the obvious problem.
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Mustache...and FastFalcon...
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/3/2008 9:11:28 AM | message detail
Melee deserves to die early! Brawl fanboyism and FFX fanboyism for life!
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 12/3/2008 9:14:40 AM | message detail
Oh, I don't care when it goes out, but two easy wins and an easy loss is not a good bracket position for any game, let alone one with Melee's potential.
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Mustache...and FastFalcon...
HaRRicH | Posted 12/3/2008 9:23:16 AM | message detail
I thought the problem was either the decent chance of LoZ:OoT/LoZ:TP or CT/LoZ:LttP being in the Sweet Sixteen.


Anyway, there looks like there would be a lot of good matches in your bracket. I really like MGS4/SMRPG -- that's sneaky. The PS3 only has ~33%-ownership, SMRPG beat down SF2, I think it's done well on the VC and is often emulated, it did ~6% worse on CT that SMW and SMRPG may have been SFF'd...

...that is an AWESOME trap-match. I don't know who wins, but SMRPG feels sexy.
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FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it?
...I don't want to talk about it.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/3/2008 9:41:24 AM | message detail

CoD4 isn't popular here, I don't even think CoD4 will make the bracket if its 64 since its the old game now, everyone who played it has moved onto World at War


CoD4 destroyed Halo 3 in the GOTY poll and MacMillan wasn't total garbage like Nathan Hale.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 9:44:50 AM | message detail

From: MegatokyoEd | #277

CoD4 isn't popular here, I don't even think CoD4 will make the bracket if its 64 since its the old game now, everyone who played it has moved onto World at War


CoD4 destroyed Halo 3 in the GOTY poll and MacMillan wasn't total garbage like Nathan Hale.



Your point being? Call of Duty: World at War would have a better shot to make it then Call of Duty 4, which nobody plays anymore. Thats the nature of online shooters... once theres a new version out, nobody cares about the old one anymore.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/3/2008 9:47:44 AM | message detail
Except CoD4 did not fall right off the Xbox Live charts after WaW came out and is in fact right below it. A lot of CoD players don't like WaW.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
charmander6000 | Posted 12/3/2008 9:48:14 AM | message detail
Recently released games do well in the final poll because they are still in the gamers mind. CoD4 was released a month before the poll and it wasn't disappointing to expectations like Halo 3 was.

Take a look at Dead or Alive 4, a game released just days before the poll. Do you think it would beat Perfect Dark Zero now?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2250
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 9:49:36 AM | message detail
Take a look at Dead or Alive 4, a game released just days before the poll. Do you think it would beat Perfect Dark Zero now?

Yes, of course. Perfect Dark Zero sucked and still sucks
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
charmander6000 | Posted 12/3/2008 9:51:10 AM | message detail
We're talking about Dead or Alive 4, not the beach volleyball version so no picture factor.
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Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 9:51:24 AM | message detail
Anyway I don't see why you think Call of Duty 4 would beat WoW. WoW will be the next Starcraft, with rallying power we've never seen, and you expect a low midcard game to beat it? o.O
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 9:52:38 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #282
We're talking about Dead or Alive 4, not the beach volleyball version so no picture factor.



Yes I know what we're talking about. Perfect dark Zero was horrible and didnt live up to expectations at all, and Dead or Alive is quite popular.

Kasumi (2006c) VS Joanna Dark (2006c)

Kasumi has a strength of 17.26.
Joanna Dark has a strength of 15.48.

Kasumi wins with 55.16% of the vote!
A win of 11,249 with 109,081 total votes cast.


nuff said I think
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 10:01:51 AM | message detail
i suppose CoD4 could just be a fad thing, but it wasted halo 3 pretty bad. that, i cant exactly ignore.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 10:04:54 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/xbox360/home/939212.html
http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/xbox360/home/944199.html

All you need to know there.

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red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 10:07:03 AM | message detail
Let's humor the idea that World of Warcraft will be the next Starcraft for a moment (it won't). Starcraft beat Halo by a couple of hundred votes. Call of Duty 4 easily beat Halo 3 in that GOTY poll. Hmm.......
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:08:18 AM | message detail
Even if CoD4 does make it in, it won't do well at all because its not the "in" game anymore
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:08:43 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #287
Let's humor the idea that World of Warcraft will be the next Starcraft for a moment (it won't). Starcraft beat Halo by a couple of hundred votes. Call of Duty 4 easily beat Halo 3 in that GOTY poll. Hmm.......



And Captain MacMillan would beat Master Chief
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 10:10:20 AM | message detail
And Captain MacMillan would beat Master Chief

Carl Johnson and that Russian (god i cant even remember his name anymore) wouldnt beat MC but i'd take their respective games over any Halo.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
red sox 777 | Posted 12/3/2008 10:10:39 AM | message detail
Well, basically, I'd expect:

Starcraft R4 ( = Melee) > Starcraft R3 ( = WW) > Starcraft R1 ( = Halo) > Diablo 2 R1 > World of Warcraft R1
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:11:01 AM | message detail
I just don't buy a game thats not very popular anymore beating the biggest game in the world.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:12:24 AM | message detail
I mean Twilight Princess vs. World of Warcraft is a fair matchup to discuss. But Call of Duty 4 would be massacred.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 10:12:32 AM | message detail
The idea that COD4 isn't popular anymore, especially because of World at War, which won't do anywhere near as well, is pretty silly.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 12/3/2008 10:13:17 AM | message detail
careful HM don't get sucked in
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:14:25 AM | message detail

From: ZFS | #294
The idea that COD4 isn't popular anymore, especially because of World at War, which won't do anywhere near as well, is pretty silly.



Look at any online FPS that gets replaced. Even if the new one isn't as "Good", it still is the new one and more popular in peopels minds, and the fanbase for Call of Duty 4 is now smaller then World at War. Its not the same as games B8 is used to that stay popular for a while. Online FPS are all about the community, and once they're gone, the games done.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
ZFS | Posted 12/3/2008 10:14:49 AM | message detail
oh damn this is albion isn't it

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/3/2008 10:16:10 AM | message detail
I mean Twilight Princess vs. World of Warcraft is a fair matchup to discuss

yup that's albion.
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*is Dranze*
Through fire, justice is served because FastFalcon05 owned my bracket.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:16:25 AM | message detail
Honestly I expect Call of Duty 4 to get in as a medium seed (due to very low nominations but good review scores), and lose in first round to another medium seed.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 12/3/2008 10:16:51 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #298
I mean Twilight Princess vs. World of Warcraft is a fair matchup to discuss

yup that's albion.



Starcraft beat WW. So why would TP vs. a bigger Blizzard game not be fair?
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
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