GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 643
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/24/2008 4:08:27 PM | message detail |
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I already did make that petition! 258 people signed it! You were one of them! http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/2008_Game_Contest_Petition --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| Mumei | Posted 11/24/2008 4:15:36 PM | message detail |
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Dear 'blazer: Why don't you have Okami in your bracket? It saddens me. --- "I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/24/2008 4:19:27 PM | message detail |
| It's far from perfect. Judging by Amaterasu's
contest results, I wouldn't at all mind Okami making the bracket, which
is more than I can say for some of the super niche stuff that's bound
to make it in. Don't mind me I'm just trying to act pissy now so I won't have to when Snake Eater inevitably misses the cut --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest! |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/24/2008 4:44:39 PM | message detail |
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Alright, so I converted yo's bracket into a 4 way in the hopes of
convincing Albion of how that format is actually LESS interesting. Here
are some matchups that would be ruined: 3 Resident Evil 4 6 Goldeneye 007 11 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 14 Kirby Super Star Gross, we lose one of the two most intriguing games in the bracket (either RE4 or GE) due to Nintendo LFF letting MGS skate through. 4 Final Fantasy VIII 5 Super Mario 64 12 The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 13 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask Booo! The highly debatable FF8 v MM slugfest is destroyed- worse yet this turns into a no brainer advancement for both FF and Mario. 3 Super Smash Bros. Brawl 6 The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 11 Pokemon Gold/Silver 14 Grand Theft Auto IV Hm, will have to kiss goodbye to another of the most intriguing games on the site, as I don't see a way for both Brawl and TP to survive this LFF fest. --- Eh, R1 wasn't really THAT ruined by a switch into the 4-way format. But where it will get ugly is from there out, with stuff like. 1 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 8 Portal 4 Pokemon Red/Blue 13 Starcraft Easy advancements for OoT and SC, yawn. 3 Resident Evil 4 11 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2 Metal Gear Solid 15 Sonic Adventure 2 See, it's not even just Nintendo that destroys interesting matchups in this format. What should have been a really awesome GE/MGS3, GE/RE4, RE4|GE/MGS path turns a series of dull results thanks to Kirby and then MGS3 being there to suck out the fun. And... don't think I'll go any further with this, but you get the idea. 1v1 is what we need to see first! --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| ZFS | Posted 11/24/2008 4:53:05 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I wouldn't mind an eventual 4way games contest nearly as much
if Bacon would just give us the 1v1 variety first. It's so long
overdue, and the possibilities are endless (as many mock brackets have
shown). If we got a 4way games bracket four months from now, it would
undoubtedly be the biggest "augh" in contest history. Yeah, I agree with this. An eventual 4-way games contest wouldn't be a big deal so long as we get a normal 1v1 first. I don't have a real problem with 4-ways - though I prefer 1v1 - but doing it with games would be a disaster. --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/24/2008 4:54:23 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, we really need a 1v1 Games Contest after 4 (5 by next spring) years since the last one. It's been too long. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| MetricTrout | Posted 11/24/2008 4:56:48 PM | message detail |
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I actually support the 4-way format for characters, as it makes the
whole contest a lot less predictable. With the presence of SFF thrown
into the mix, there is a lot more to analyze. In fact, I will say that the 4-way format saved the Character Battle. Had we stuck with the 1 vs. 1 format, we would undoubtedly have gotten another two Link > Cloud finals, and do we really want that? Thanks to the new format, the Character Battle suddenly became much more interesting. However, even I think that the games contest should stick to the 1 vs. 1 format. The contest strength of the games are largely unknown, so a games contest would be unpredictable either way. Plus, a games contest is a lot more "serious" than a character contest, in that while no one gives a damn how popular video game character are on GameFAQs, it would be interesting to see how popular the games themselves are. Factors like SFF should not affect a games contest as a metric of popularity. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/24/2008 5:31:56 PM | message detail |
| I think the difference between contests was that
the character battles needed saving...the BGE simply needed to be
revived. Because of that, the four-way was much more appropriate for
the character battles than for the next BGE. I'll also say that -- no matter the games, match-ups, past contests, or future contests -- a new BGE in a four-way format next year would cause an unprecedented amount of *****ing. Not only the format would come into question again, but the SFF and the screw-jobs from SFF would be there too. We'll all become bracket-critics for a month trying to figure out why the bracket isn't 100% perfect after five years of waiting. Furthermore, rallying would become far more of an issue since one would actually be rallying for the games instead of characters and SB's no longer actively looking for cheat-votes. There would be one hundred twenty-eight of people's favorite games, so many people will have some personal feelings in the mix; furthermore, since it's a rare contest, snubs will be more personal to fans too. We will have minimal outdated stats and tons of new games, so how to handle the new stats would become a new issue...while complaining about the decimation of our brackets. Accusations of FF7 > everything again will run rampant probably every day, and new complaints will very quickly rise if LoZ:OoT pulled the upset...not to mention how many gamers will feel about both the older and newer power-houses not pulling through. We can only imagine how quickly SB will be textually lynched if he reinstates some of the controversial rules of 2004, too (nomination-by-system, series cap, divisions by eras)... ...THEN have some match-ups people will be particularly upset about even without SFF (SF2/SMRPG, anybody?), entries that stat-heads and dedicated fans will argue over (Tales of Symphonia), the potential of joke entries debuting (Big Rigs, Super man 64, E.T., Bible Adventures, etc.), new subjects of potentially-major rallies (Diablo 2, WoW), and the likely return and survival of Black Turtle and Albion for the next year. I can't wait for another BGE, but it will unquestionably be unbearable around the board at times if it's a four-way contest, almost certainly worse than we've ever had it before. I still can't wait despite that. Pull through for us SB. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 11/24/2008 5:50:35 PM | message detail |
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No pressure btw SB. >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Congratulations to FastFalcon for winning the guru contest, you are the best among the best. |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2008 6:23:42 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2008 6:27:45 PM | message detail |
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I already did make that petition! Make another one next year. The most likely reason we didn't get a Games Contest this year is because a majority of GameFAQs didn't want a Games Contest in comparison to what Board 8 wanted. Look at this poll to see what I mean: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3096 The "Games Contest" option got handed a major beatdown (50.31% (first two options combined) to 19.04%). --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2008 9:32:39 PM | message detail |
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Yes, I've even imported a DSi 0.82% 38 We have a Neo-Tanner! I can't wait until it starts pulling in 0% updates (0 votes in one update). --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/24/2008 10:17:33 PM | message detail |
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Alright, after a long debate with Moltar he insisted that I take time
out of my Crew archival work on the wiki to break down the '08 bracket
in terms of seeding. So, here it is! Theory: All SB did was to take the 128 most-nominated characters (except perhaps for applying some kind of series limit that kept Yuna and Aeris out), rank them 1 through 128, and assign the top 8 #1 seeds, next 8 #2s, and so forth. Then he set them into the bracket in this way #1 vs #8 vs #9 vs #16 winners play #4 vs #5 vs #12 vs #13 other side #2 vs #7 vs #10 vs #15 winners play #3 vs #6 vs #11 vs #14 Then he removed the visible seeds, mixed the 4 packs so that the #1 wasn't always on top, and called it a day. I wasn't sure how reasonable that assumption was, but after looking at the seedings it resulted in, I'm now pretty convinced that it must be how he operated. Take a look at the results and judge for yourself. SEEDED 2008 BRACKET Division One 1 Link 8 Shadow the Hedgehog 9 Zidane Tribal 16 Luke fon Fabre 4 Zack Fair 5 Cecil Harvey 12 Wario 13 Jade Curtiss 2 Altair 7 Lucario 10 Guybrush Threepwood 15 Isaac 3 Niko Bellic 6 Kefka 11 Marth 14 Duke Nukem Division Two 1 Mario 8 Zelda 9 Knuckles the Echidna 16 Fei Fong Wong 4 Mega Man X 5 Mudkip 12 Lloyd Irving 13 Tom Nook 2 Luigi 7 Liquid Snake 10 Roxas 15 Sho Minamimoto 3 Bowser 6 Phoenix Wright 11 Geno 14 Deckard Cain Division Three 1 Samus Aran 8 Nightmare 9 Crash Bandicoot 16 Raz 4 Ganondorf 5 Frog 12 KOS-MOS 13 Neku Sakuraba 2 Vincent Valentine 7 GlaDOS 10 Falco Lombardi 15 Wander 3 Scorpion 6 Gordon Freeman 11 Balthier Bunansa 14 Big Daddy Division Four 1 Crono 8 Amaterasu 9 Frank West 16 Kaim Argonar 4 L-Block 5 Ryu (Street Fighter) 12 Meta Knight 13 The Dog 2 Pikachu 7 Arthas Menethil 10 Ike 15 Spy 3 Alucard 6 Kratos Aurion 11 Captain Falcon 14 Diddy Kong Division Five 1 Solid Snake 8 Vivi Ornitier 9 Albert Wesker 16 Sackboy 4 Zero 5 Ryu Hayabusa 12 Pit 13 King Dedede 2 Mega Man 7 Nero 10 Captain Olimar 15 Banjo 3 Tidus 6 Donkey Kong 11 Miles 'Tails' Prower 14 Weighted Companion Division Six 1 Cloud Strife 8 Midna 9 Miles Edgeworth 16 Axel Steel 4 Mewtwo 5 Pac-Man 12 Ness 13 Travis Touchdown 2 Sora 7 Fox McCloud 10 Chris Redfield 15 Tim 3 Squall Leonhart 6 Yoshi 11 CATS 14 Nathan Drake Division Seven 1 Master Chief 8 Raiden 9 Kain Highwind 16 Professor Layton 4 Kirby 5 Big Boss 12 Lucas 13 Jinjo 2 Dante 7 Laharl 10 Ramza Beoulve 15 Hogger 3 Leon Kennedy 6 Riku 11 Siegfried Schtauffen 14 Captain MacMillan Division Eight 1 Sephiroth 8 Tifa Lockheart 9 Ratchet 16 Nana 4 Kratos 5 Revolver Ocelot 12 Jill Valentine 13 Heavy 2 Sonic the Hedgehog 7 Magus 10 Commander Shepard 15 Sandbag 3 Auron 6 Sub-Zero 11 Marcus Fenix 14 Rydia --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/24/2008 10:22:22 PM | message detail |
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The DS is looking to improve big from June's showing: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3138 It was at 64.6% in June, yet it's currently at 69.81%. The Wii doesn't really have much of an excuse for stagnating when the DS has improved so much. I don't know what games the DS has had since June other than CT:DS, but that alone -- especially this early since its release -- shouldn't be doing anything like this for DS-ownership. Has it had a price drop since then or anything? --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| ZFS | Posted 11/24/2008 10:29:55 PM | message detail |
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CTDS definitely isn't the cause of the boost in ownership. The DS is
just something that will continue to grow as time passes due to its
huge library of games - probably the most varied of any current system
out there. Still a pretty big jump considering nothing huge has come
out, but not too surprising considering how well it still sells each
month. --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/24/2008 10:30:27 PM | message detail |
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The DS is constantly getting new, awesome games. Since June it's had
FFIV DS and Kirby Super Star Ultra and Castlevania: OoE and other stuff
and Ninjatown (;>_>) But there's really like constant motivation for people to buy a DS. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, FastFalcon05 |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2008 10:37:59 PM | message detail |
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ATTN: Ngamer and anyone else who has posted a hypothetical Games bracket The seeding system used in the Games Contest will most likely be the 1-8 seeding system, not the 1-16 seeding system. The 1-8 seeding system has been used in the more recent contests (those from 2005 and 2006) and most likely would have been used in 2007 and 2008 if the contest was 1v1. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/24/2008 10:40:53 PM | message detail |
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it really doesn't matter, the brackets end up the same anyway --- FastFalcon is in my sig. How can this be. http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/24/2008 10:47:01 PM | message detail |
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If those seeds are accurate, then here is the complete character ranking for '08 in terms of total nominations. Total Nominations for 2008 1 Link 1 Cloud Strife 1 Sephiroth 1 Solid Snake 1 Mario 1 Samus Aran 1 Master Chief 1 Crono 2 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Mega Man 2 Vincent Valentine 2 Luigi 2 Pikachu 2 Dante 2 Sora 2 Altair 3 Squall Leonhart 3 Auron 3 Bowser 3 Tidus 3 Leon Kennedy 3 Alucard 3 Scorpion 3 Niko Bellic 4 L-Block 4 Mega Man X 4 Ganondorf 4 Kirby 4 Kratos 4 Zero 4 Mewtwo 4 Zack Fair 5 Ryu (Street Fighter) 5 Mudkip 5 Frog 5 Ryu Hayabusa 5 Big Boss 5 Revolver Ocelot 5 Pac-Man 5 Cecil Harvey 6 Yoshi 6 Sub-Zero 6 Phoenix Wright 6 Gordon Freeman 6 Kratos Aurion 6 Riku 6 Donkey Kong 6 Kefka 7 Magus 7 Fox McCloud 7 Liquid Snake 7 Arthas Menethil 7 Nero 7 GlaDOS 7 Laharl 7 Lucario 8 Tifa Lockheart 8 Zelda 8 Shadow the Hedgehog 8 Nightmare 8 Vivi Ornitier 8 Midna 8 Raiden 8 Amaterasu 9 Knuckles the Echidna 9 Zidane Tribal 9 Miles Edgeworth 9 Kain Highwind 9 Crash Bandicoot 9 Frank West 9 Albert Wesker 9 Ratchet 10 Roxas 10 Falco Lombardi 10 Ike 10 Captain Olimar 10 Chris Redfield 10 Ramza Beoulve 10 Commander Shepard 10 Guybrush Threepwood 11 Marcus Fenix 11 Marth 11 Geno 11 Balthier Bunansa 11 Captain Falcon 11 Miles 'Tails' Prower 11 CATS 11 Siegfried Schtauffen 12 Wario 12 Lloyd Irving 12 KOS-MOS 12 Meta Knight 12 Pit 12 Ness 12 Lucas 12 Jill Valentine 13 Jade Curtiss 13 Tom Nook 13 Neku Sakuraba 13 The Dog 13 King Dedede 13 Travis Touchdown 13 Jinjo 13 Heavy 14 Weighted Companion 14 Diddy Kong 14 Duke Nukem 14 Deckard Cain 14 Big Daddy 14 Nathan Drake 14 Captain MacMillan 14 Rydia 15 Isaac 15 Sho Minamimoto 15 Wander 15 Spy 15 Banjo 15 Tim 15 Hogger 15 Sandbag 16 Kaim Argonar 16 Luke fon Fabre 16 Fei Fong Wong 16 Raz 16 Sackboy 16 Axel Steel 16 Professor Layton 16 Nana --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/24/2008 11:00:43 PM | message detail |
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It was at 64.6% in June, yet it's currently at 69.81%. Since I've been predicting the regular polls for fun, I had predicted DS ownership to be at 70.84% between the first 3 options combined. So while it looks like a good overall prediction, I sucked at being able to split the 70.84% among the 3 options. I had a hard time trying to determine if DS Lite or the Regular DS ownership was higher of the two. In the end, I decided on 2.03% for DSi, 36.21% for DS Lite, and 32.60% for the old DS. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/24/2008 11:02:18 PM | message detail |
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Conclusions: As much as we all thought that Brawl had "dominated the
nomination process" once the bracket was revealed, we can see now
that... eh, not REALLY. Sure the Nintendo icons got their usual strong
support, but really Brawl wouldn't have gotten any new characters into
the Contest this year if we'd have seen a standard 64-character bracket
rather than the expanded 128. And alot of the Brawl Fodder STILL came
close to missing the cut... I guess with Smash fan's votes being split
so many different ways that shouldn't be surprising. Let's take a closer look. The Brawl Cast by Nominations 1 Link 1 Solid Snake 1 Mario 1 Samus Aran 2 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Luigi 2 Pikachu 3 Bowser 4 Ganondorf 4 Kirby 6 Yoshi 6 Donkey Kong 7 Fox McCloud 8 Zelda --- (normal cutoff) 10 Falco Lombardi 10 Ike 10 Captain Olimar 11 Marth 11 Captain Falcon 12 Wario 12 Meta Knight 12 Pit 12 Ness 12 Lucas 13 King Dedede 14 Diddy Kong 15 Sandbag 16 Nana Looks... pretty reasonable! --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/24/2008 11:10:34 PM | message detail |
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14 Diddy Kong Nomination rally + Brawl = 14 seed? I think we'd have seen this one coming if only we'd known... --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/24/2008 11:19:12 PM | message detail |
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Kinda interesting that Ike outdid Marth and Lucas matched Ness in the seeding if all this is right. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/24/2008 11:19:12 PM | message detail |
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14 Diddy Kong Nomination rally + Brawl = 14 seed? I think we'd have seen this one coming if only we'd known... Wow. That IS weird. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/24/2008 11:33:29 PM | message detail |
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I still say your giving Bacon way too much credit. probably just put the names in a randomizer and called it the bracket because he's so lazy lol mirite guys --- Moltar Status: in 'save us games contest' mode all hail FastFalcon the king of the guru |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/25/2008 12:21:53 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/25/2008 12:22:48 AM | message detail |
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Seeing Pikachu as a 2 seed just seems weird to me since he missed out on the contest for 3 years straight. In other news: Got DS? Yes, I've even imported a DSi 0.91% 160 Yes, I have a DS Lite 45.18% 7960 Yes, I still have the original DS 23.49% 4138 Not yet, but I think I'll get one for Christmas 3.06% 540 No, I don't want one right now 27.36% 4821 TOTAL VOTES 17619 DS is definitely breaking 70% today. --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 8:01:17 AM | message detail |
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DSi may be setting a new record for lowest percentage ever though....at least I haven't ever seen an option under 1%. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/25/2008 8:16:37 AM | message detail |
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Were there any zero-vote updates for it overnight? We are currently 675
minutes into the poll with only 394 votes for "Yes, I've even imported
a DSi", so...it's a real possibility. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 8:19:49 AM | message detail |
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2008 Final Complete Raw Stats 1. Classic Link – 50.00% 2. Solid Snake – 45.18% 3. Cloud Strife – 43.88% 4. Kirby – 38.35% 5. Mega Man – 34.96% 6. Big Boss – 34.82% 7. Master Chief – 34.20% 8. Zack Fair – 34.08% 9. Mario – 33.72% 10. Sephiroth – 31.07% 11. Leon Kennedy – 30.49% 12. Samus Aran – 30.30% 13. Mega Man X – 29.95% 14. Vivi Orunitia – 29.48% 15. Weighted Companion Cube – 29.23% 16. Kain Highwind – 27.93% 17. Vincent Valentine – 27.25% 18. Liquid Snake – 27.05% 19. Tidus – 26.85% 20. Crono – 26.64% 21. Princess Zelda – 26.49% 22. Zero – 25.54% 23. Mudkip – 25.51% 24. Squall Leonhart – 23.53% 25. L-Block – 23.40% 26. Donkey Kong – 23.23% 27. Bowser – 23.04% 28. Knuckles the Echidna – 22.96% 29. Sora – 22.84% 30. Pikachu – 22.72% 31. Ryu – 22.71% 32. Mewtwo – 22.54% 33. Sonic the Hedgehog – 22.26% 34. Luigi – 22.06% 35. Ryu Hayabusa – 21.92% 36. Duke Nukem – 21.91% 37. CD-I Link – 21.39% 38. Raiden – 21.22% 39. Phoenix Wright – 20.62% 40. Gordon Freeman – 20.51% 41. Midna – 20.36% 42. Shadow the Hedgehog – 20.30% 43. Ike – 20.29% 44. Tifa Lockhart – 20.24% 45. Frog – 20.08% 46. Yoshi – 19.96% 47. Ganondorf – 19.85% 48. Meta Knight – 19.45% 49. Auron – 19.21% 50. Alucard – 19.11% 51. Dante Sparda – 18.96% 52. Toon Link – 18.84% 53. Altair – 18.82% 54. Arthas Menethil – 18.71% 55. Marth – 18.71% 56. Zidane Tribal – 18.56% 57. Miles “Tails” Prower – 18.41% 58. Kratos – 18.32% 59. Cecil Harvey – 18.27% 60. Amaterasu – 17.96% 61. Fox McCloud – 17.94% 62. Magus – 17.91% 63. Captain Falcon – 17.64% 64. Albert Wesker – 17.63% 65. Pac-Man – 17.62% 66. Scorpion – 17.50% 67. Nero – 17.42% 68. Fei Fong Wong – 17.39% 69. Siegfried Schtauffen – 17.32% 70. Chris Redfield – 17.29% 71. Nightmare – 16.66% 72. GlaDOS – 16.60% 73. Wario – 16.58% 74. Lloyd Irving – 16.26% 75. Niko Bellic – 16.25% 76. Falco Lombardi – 15.92% 77. Jill Valentine – 15.80% 78. Kefka – 15.78% 79. Riku – 15.02% 80. Balthier Bunansa – 14.95% 81. Miles Edgeworth – 14.95% 82. Crash Bandicoot – 14.82% 83. Captain MacMillan – 14.65% 84. Spy – 14.60% 85. Sackboy – 14.59% 86. Revolver Ocelot – 14.45% 87. Lucario – 14.44% 88. Banjo – 14.40% 89. Roxas – 14.34% 90. The Dog – 14.31% 91. Sub-Zero – 14.30% 92. Ratchet – 14.16% 93. Professor Layton – 13.91% 94. Ness – 13.72% 95. Big Daddy – 13.53% 96. Diddy Kong – 13.28% 97. Frank West – 13.18% 98. Captain Olimar – 12.82% 99. Pit – 12.53% 100. Kratos Aurion – 12.53% 101. Geno – 12.35% 102. Isaac – 12.30% 103. KOS-MOS – 12.22% 104. CATS – 11.90% 105. Commander Shepard – 11.87% 106. Rydia – 11.79% 107. King DeDeDe – 11.77% 108. Travis Touchdown – 11.76% 109. Sandbag – 11.70% 110. Jinjo – 11.48% 111. Deckard Cain – 11.18% 112. Nana – 11.17% 113. Marcus Fenix – 11.15% 114. Hogger – 10.55% 115. Axel Steel – 9.85% 116. Tom Nook – 9.75% 117. Ramza Beoulve – 9.48% 118. Heavy – 9.43% 119. Laharl – 9.35% 120. Luke fon Fabre – 9.16% 121. Guybrush Threepwood – 9.12% 122. Young Link – 9.07% 123. Neku Sakuraba – 8.75% 124. Raz – 8.26% 125. Jade Curtiss – 7.98% 126. Wander – 7.70% 127. Kaim Argonar – 7.49% 128. Sho Minamimoto – 7.48% 129. Lucas – 7.33% 130. Tim – 6.56% 131. Nathan Drake – 6.22% --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 8:19:56 AM | message detail |
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I was asked for some...unbiased raw stats, so here they are! These are
all calculated consistently. I used the match that the character lost
in, and extrapolated them through the character who got first in the
poll. As such, you get things like Magus > Sandbag because Magus is
extrapolated through Sonic through Sephiroth while Sandbag is
extrapolated through Auron through Sephiroth, so don't let things like
that confuse you. I may do some raw stats based on "Best performance"
(which would actually put Cloud on top of the stats because of his one
performance on Snake!) later, but I'll work on the real stats for now. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/25/2008 8:30:55 AM | message detail |
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DS is definitely breaking 70% today. I doubt it. It's at 68.58% and it had dropped a lot overnight. That FNV was brutal for the first 3 options. It'll have to really pick up with the ASV if it wants to break 70%. DSi may be setting a new record for lowest percentage ever though That's why I called it a Neo-Tanner earlier. Were there any zero-vote updates for it overnight? I never tracked updates past the first hour, but in the Power Hour alone, it got a 2 vote update. So a 0 vote update in the late night is possible. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 11/25/2008 8:31:10 AM | message detail |
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Ah ok. I was confused why L-Block was ranked higher then Pikachu. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 8:32:13 AM | message detail |
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By the way, I still have no idea what to do with Crono for the real
stats. If I base him off of the last match, he ends up under 30% on
Link. If I leave him alone based on the first semifinal match, he ends
up at nearly 40% on Link. Obviously, he's somewhere in the middle. Any
ideas? --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/25/2008 8:37:28 AM | message detail |
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What happens if you go by what Crono got on Link last year? --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 8:39:26 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 8:42:53 AM | message detail |
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Well, you could base him off of his performance on Samus in round 4,
which puts him between those values, but still much too close to the
finals value thanks to Samus suffering double SFF from Link and Mario.
Using last year's value on Link puts Crono.....about what I consider
the right distance from Mario's R5 value, although both of those are
probably too low. I don't think we can do much better than that without
making rather arbitrary adjustments. If we have a final set of stats
with Cloud > Link though, surely giving Crono 39% on Link is alright! --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 8:44:03 AM | message detail |
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Crono got 31.20% there, and he'd end up under Sonic the Hedgehog by a good bit that way. I don't buy that, for obvious reasons. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/25/2008 8:55:18 AM | message detail |
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Fun-fact: if you make a one-on-one bracket out of the top sixty-four
characters and seed them appropriately via raw stats, Sonic would be
facing Mewtwo in the first round...and expected to lose in the first
round. That's pretty unacceptable. I know the raw stats aren't accurate, but even still, consider what Pikachu did this year and Kirby's expected to beat Sonic by ~3.5% one-on-one. Mewtwo wouldn't beat Sonic...but Sonic wouldn't beat him by a whole lot, either. Squall should be pissed he didn't face Sonic twice this year instead of last year. --- FastFalcon05 absolutely decimated me in the Guru challenge. How bad was it? ...I don't want to talk about it. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 8:57:38 AM | message detail |
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Well, it gives him 46.26% on Mario, a little below the 47-48% I'd give
him as of last week (he'd beat Mario today!). That's an SFF'd Mario
though, and a Crono who was both weaker probably and who was suffering
a little LFF with Vincent. Adjusting Samus off of Crono then puts her a
little above Mario (not by enough I think), and we end up with a trio
that is fairly accurate relative to each other but who are all
underrated relative to the rest of the field. And I don't see how that
puts him below Sonic....Sonic is a full 9% lower, no? 31.20% is above
Sephiroth's current value, actually. Hmm....how about giving Samus her value on Cloud from last year? That gives 36.09% for Samus and 32.50% for Crono. That gives him....48.18% on Mario, which is just about perfect from my point of view, and it gives Samus 53.28% on Mario too....excellent. I think even with that all three of them are still underrated, but it's not too far off. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/25/2008 9:52:50 AM | message detail |
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Great work Leon! Yeah, Ness is a weird one. Out of that pack, 4 Mewtwo 5 Pac-Man 12 Ness 13 Travis Touchdown I'm very comfortable with Mew as a 4 and Travis the 13, but don't know who was the 5 between Pac and Ness. That 5 would have been a 10 in a normal 1-16 bracket... let's see who would have been more likely to pull a 10 given their Contest history. Ness: 2002 - missed the cut (but no noms) 2003 - 12 seed 2004 - 6(!) seed 2005 - 8 seed 2006 - missed the cut (only 32 spots) 2007 - ...crap! Alucard was the 4 and Zidane was the 13, but Liquid Snake and Ness could have been either the 5 or the 12. that doesn't help! Pac-Mac: 2002 - 1 (but no noms) 2003 - 5 2004 - 13 2005 - 14 2006 - missed the cut (only 32 spots) 2007 - either an 8 or 9 seed (Mario was the 1 and Wander the 16, Pac and Big Boss where 8/9 in some order) Eh... looking that over, I've got to change my mind. Pac's been barely making brackets ever since '04, and after the terrible SFF beatdown Mario gave him last year I could easily see him falling from a 9 to a 12. I didn't expect Ness to be able to hold to a 5 this season with so many other SSB options + losing some noms to Lucas, but it looks like the Earthbound base was able to do it for him. Also, he was probably a 5 last year as well, and Liquid was the 12 there... would make sense for Liquid to rise from a 12 to the 7 he got in '08, given MGS4. --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 11:35:15 AM | message detail |
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And I don't see how that puts him below Sonic....Sonic is a full 9%
lower, no? 31.20% is above Sephiroth's current value, actually. You're looking at the raw stats. Sephiroth's well above 31.2% in the real stats, and Sonic's well above 22% as well. I've got Sonic at 33.09% right now, actually, for those who are curious. I suppose I could give Samus her value based on last year and adjust Crono accordingly. No clue what to do with Mario's division though. It's a total crapshoot of LFF. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2008 11:59:03 AM | message detail |
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I've got a large portion of the true stats done, but still struggling
on what to do with Mario's, Samus's, and Crono's divisions. --- FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy? http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif |
| Yesmar | Posted 11/25/2008 12:25:04 PM | message detail |
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Great job with the seedings. The only issues I have are: Division 1 When I first saw the bracket, I assumed that Wario was the 5 seed and Cecil was the 12 actually. Wario had the new Brawl support this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Zack was actually a 12 instead. Division 3 I would definitely switch Gordon and Scorpion's seeds. Gordon's gotten great seeds in the past couple years, and I doubt that Scorpion could top him I would also bet on Ganondorf being a 2 seed ahead of Vincent as well. Division 4 I would actually guess that the seeds here were: 1)Crono 16) Frank West 8) Amaterasu 9) Kaim 5) Diddy Kong 12) Captain Falcon/Kratos 4)Alucard 13) Captain Falcon/Kratos 6) Ike 11) Arthas 3) Pikachu 14) Spy 7) Ryu 10) Meta Knight 2) L-Block 15) The Dog Division 5 Bascially the same, although I have doubts Tidus's group was the one with the 3 seed. Division 6 Pac-Man and Ness are probably switched as was already said. Division 7 Same here Division 8 Possibly flip Sandbag and Commander Shepard Those are my thoughts at least. -- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| Yesmar | Posted 11/25/2008 12:26:53 PM | message detail |
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Also, I think there's a decent shot that Ike was the 3 seed as well. --- FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/25/2008 1:56:09 PM | message detail |
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You think Crono gets 48% on mario these days? And you think Samus getting 53% on Mario is "excellent" lol x-stats --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/25/2008 1:59:07 PM | message detail |
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Personally, I doubt Mewtwo's very strong. His performance against Midna
was a big stink bomb, and he only looked good in round 1 because of a
weak fourpack. It's also very obvious he only looked impressive in
round 3 thanks to SFF. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 2:05:18 PM | message detail |
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You think Crono gets 48% on mario these days? And you think Samus getting 53% on Mario is "excellent" lol x-stats I don't see the relevance of these two statements. I've stated my opinion on Samus/Mario/Crono before, but I haven't been basing anything off of "x-stats" except in the sense that I've been using past results to analyze matches. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/25/2008 2:06:15 PM | message detail |
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I went back and took at look at the 2007 bracket and then converted
that whole thing over to the seeded format. After doing that... yeah,
there are a few things from my '08 seedings that are going to need to
be revised. I'll fix those up tonight and them comment on these ideas
from Yes'm. --- thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon! (thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat) |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2008 2:06:49 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and Snake did about as well on Cloud in R4 as Mario did on
Sephiroth last year, before he deboosted, so yes, I'm quite willing to
say Snake gets 55% on Mario before SFF in addition to those numbers for
Crono and Samus. --- Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon |
