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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 643

HaRRicH | Posted 11/20/2008 3:39:23 PM | message detail
After everything said about Revolver in MGS4 and not being terribly impressed by him in MGS3 (Naked Snake, The Boss, and even Volgin outshine him to me), not to mention he's old in three out of four MGS games...I figured Old-elot is where he would look best.

Whatever though, we never got to see much of him MGS3-wise.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2008 3:46:59 PM | message detail
This contest was amazing overall! I will say that I am plenty convinced now that upsets give characters momentum frequently, and not just L-Block... I'm sure it gets magnified in a 4-way poll compared to a 2-way. If Snake didn't get first in the semis, I think Cloud would've taken second in the finals. I don't think the Crono leeching is -that- bad... =p

Yeah, this. I'd like to claim Cloud/Crono LFF was massive to make Crono look good, but it just isn't true. Besides, Cloud beat Crono worse than Sephiroth. Voters do pay attention ot the contest, and momentum matters: Link/Magus, Starcraft's run, and Sephiroth's matches against Bowser and Ganon make more sense now. This also supports my theory that both SSBM and CT overperformed on FFVII (they both had joke-like trends against FFVII, and OOT wasn't even able to win the first update), but we'll need to see a Games Contest to validate that.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 3:55:29 PM | message detail
not being terribly impressed by him in MGS3

As far as MGS3 fans are concerned, you'd be in the minority. MGS4 practically beats it into your head that this is Liquid, not Ocelot, regardless of what the truth actually is, which could work against him. MGS3 puts Ocelot into a highly visible role (something he DIDN'T have in MGS1 and MGS2) and gave him a good deal of flair, something that even MGS4 Ocelot lacks sometimes.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/20/2008 3:57:38 PM | message detail
Saying MGS4 Ocelot lacks flair is just.... no
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 3:58:49 PM | message detail
I said sometimes. Besides, he never shows it to the degree that Young Ocelot does with the gun tricks.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/20/2008 4:01:12 PM | message detail
Regarding fictional characters... I DO think it would be interesting to see how Vader/Batman/Yoda/Spiderman would perform, but I don't think we need to "reach" for that Contest any time in the near future. Here's the schedule I would go with:

Spring 2009 : 1v1 Best Game Ever 2
Summer 2009: 1v1 Characters

Spring 2010: 1v1 Best Console Ever
Summer 2010: Something Cool

I don't want to see the Fictional characters play against our traditional characters, but maybe something along the lines of a male/female bracket split could work as that "something cool". 32 traditional representatives on one side, people from other sources on the other, and they'd only meet in the middle for a very strange Championship. Hmm...

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
__hiei__ | Posted 11/20/2008 4:04:49 PM | message detail
no,the Crono SFF in that match was probably the worst in the contest,or one of the worst ones. Snake got 70% against someone he would normally have beaten by around 55%. Cloud LOST to someone who shouldn't even have been a threat.Link was much closer to everyone else than he should have been,

probably more than half of Crono's fanbase consists of part of link + part of Cloud . put him in a poll with those two and weird stuff like this happens,allowing Snake to overperform massively.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 4:05:49 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 4:06:11 PM | message detail
Snake beating Crono as badly as he did had virtually everything to do with Snake and nothing to do with Cloud. Besides, I'd say Snake gets closer to 60% on Crono than 55%, personally.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2008 4:10:24 PM | message detail
Crono got beat so badly because of "Last Place Factor" and the Snake bandwagon, not because of any particularly large overlap between him and Cloud. There was fanbase overlap flying in every direction in that match, and I'm guessing most CT fans like at least 2 out of the other 3 characters. Actually, Crono got almost the same percentage that Snake got in last year's final with Link, Cloud, and L-Block. The situation was the same here: Link, Cloud, and a bandwagoned character trying to take down Link. Except that Snake wasn't as strong as L-Block, and Crono wasn't as strong as Snake last year.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
__hiei__ | Posted 11/20/2008 4:28:06 PM | message detail
Snake gets 60% on Crono ? O_o

Samus got less than 55% on Crono this year,and if you argue Pikachu split,Vincent split with crono is just as arguable,not to mention crono shares a bit with nintendo himself.so it should be close to a "neutral" match...

and there are people who argue Samus>Snake here (though i disagree). as stronger as Snake is,he wouldn't do a full 5% better than Samus did.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 4:35:01 PM | message detail
Vincent split with crono is just as arguable

No, it's not. Nor is Crono/Nintendo LFF.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2008 4:38:53 PM | message detail
Samus only got 55% on Crono, but Samus/Pikachu LFF is probably more significant than Crono/Vincent LFF, by a little, so she'd probably score a little higher in a 1v1. You're right that Snake probably wouldn't get 60% on Crono though....maybe 57-58%. Snake is a great deal stronger than Mario now, at least indirectly: even before that massive bandwagon, he got about the same percentage on Cloud Mario got on Sephiroth last year- before he deboosted. Mario would need to rSFF away basically all of Snake's Brawl support to beat him now, I think.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
KingButz | Posted 11/20/2008 5:30:06 PM | message detail
Kain Highwind – 26.18%
Mewtwo – 25.68%


I like this.

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trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 5:35:03 PM | message detail
so, what wins Game of the Year

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Metal Gear Solid 4
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
Megaman703 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:37:49 PM | message detail
I think Consoles is a bad idea. I don't think there would be enough strong consoles to make it really interesting. Expanding to handhelds would just continue Nintendo domination.

Nintendo:
5 Consoles
Sony:
3 Consoles
Microsoft:
2 Consoles
Sega:
5 Consoles

that's 14, not counting the ones that would be fairly weak (SG-1000, for example). A bracket of 16 would be too short, and 32 might be streching it. I agree there needs to be a cool contest in that vein, Quotes was a good idea, but might not be feasible. Same goes with Music, it'd be awesome, but bandwidth would be an issue. Maybe developers, like The Escapist did?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2008 5:42:49 PM | message detail
Consoles might make a good mini-contest, like with the Top 10 Games Contest.
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FastFalcon is without a doubt the best Guru I've ever heard of, savvy?
http://qirien.icecavern.net/final_fantasy/icons/squall_bunnysuit.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/20/2008 5:44:16 PM | message detail
I think consoles would be like the series contest. Fun in theory, but still too predictable.

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FastFalcon believed in Snake. I didn't.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/20/2008 5:48:13 PM | message detail
It also helps explain why Ocelot's best performance in the Villains Contest (arguably his best performance ever) came against Dr. Wily, when he was sporting his youthful MGS3 picture.

man I can't believe I took Dr. Wily in that match. Ugh.
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FastFalcon05 is the man.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:51:43 PM | message detail
1. Super Nintendo
8. Master System

4. Genesis
5. PSP

3. DS
6. GameCube

2. PlayStation
7. Dreamcast

1. PlayStation 2
8. XBox

4. Nintendo 64
5. PlayStation 3

3. Wii
6. Game Boy Advance

2. 360
7. Game Boy

Meh
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Mustache...and FastFalcon...
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:53:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, well, I think you're crazy. Consoles would make for an awesome small 16 entrant bracket, especially if it were run in 2010 when the current generation will be nearing the end of their lives and we'll all have made a final decision on them. In fact I'm going to make a bracket right now.

1. SNES
16. Intellivision

8. Dreamcast
9 . Sega Genesis

5. PSX
12. GameCube

4. N64
13. Atari 2600

3. NES
14. Sega Saturn

6. PS3
11. Xbox

7. Wii
10. Xbox 360

2. PS2
15. Virtual Boy

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/20/2008 5:53:52 PM | message detail
so, what wins Game of the Year

Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Metal Gear Solid 4


Brawl, and probably easily. MGS4 will be splitting with either GTAIV or Gears 2 or Fallout 3. I doubt there will be any other Nintendo option (I don't think DS got anything this year, and Brawl will kill the Wii poll), so Brawl should stand out enough for an easy win.
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Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/20/2008 5:56:17 PM | message detail
A Console Contest might draw the the highest votals ever, too. I can just imagine all the message board wars.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... FastFalcon own me... in the Guru Contest!
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:56:39 PM | message detail
Don't forget LBP.
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Go Ducks Go!
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:57:44 PM | message detail
16 is too few for a contest, there would be too many perfects.
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Go Ducks Go!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/20/2008 5:57:47 PM | message detail
DS is getting Chrono Trigger, yo!

Will Crono come to Snake's aid again?
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~War~ The Cream of Transexual FastFalcon Fanboyism ~War~
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:00:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think Brawl takes it easily due to the split. Though to be fair I also think Brawl takes it easily 1v1 on MGS4!

Dang it RPG, stop stealing my spotlight!

But yeah, I don't see anything meh about consoles. I don't see how anyone could say with any degree of certainty what should be the favorite in a PS2/SNES matchup, or that the NES couldn't compete with the PSX, or that PSX/N64 wouldn't be a dogfight. And the Wii is of course a huge wildcard; awesome sales, but would the core gamers turn their backs on it in favor of something like the 360 or PSX? Would nostalgia be enough to push the NES past it? And the GameCube is a middle weight that's hard to peg as well.

I think any console bracket would be very good just as long as the heavy hitters from Nintendo were evenly split out.

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 6:02:43 PM | message detail
well, there's Mario Kart. not to say it has a chance against Brawl, but it's going to outsell it.

hmm.. final four will probably be Brawl, MGS4, and... GTA4, I suppose. Fable 2 or Gears 2 probably wins 360 GOTY, GTA4 or Fallout 3 is probably the multiplatform GOTY and DS has... CTDS and that's really all for the year. PSP GOTY will be Crisis Core.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 6:04:11 PM | message detail
console contest would be boring as hell. it'd be like the series contest - one debatable final, a bunch of blowouts leading up to it. it's even less interesting though.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:04:53 PM | message detail
Think of the match pics, though.

Who wants face shots.
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FastFalcon is in my sig. How can this be.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/20/2008 6:07:27 PM | message detail
The series contest had a debatable final?

Still don't know why there was disagreement on that.

Oh, and if there's any justice in the world, MGS4 won't win any GotY awards. God, I really, really hope it doesn't.
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Free of lilih related Tyranny since 18/10/08.
Mother 3. That is all.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:07:42 PM | message detail
Great to hear discussion of MGS4 upsetting Brawl!

For consoles, I'd guess SNES and PS2 would be our strongest consoles. SNES got 48% in the last favorite Nintendo console, in 2005, which is absurdly dominant.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:15:46 PM | message detail
Did you not SEE that bracket tranny? There's nothing "boring" or "blowout" about

8. Dreamcast vs 9 . Sega Genesis

5. PSX vs 12. GameCube

6. Wii vs 11. Xbox 360

7. PS3 vs 10. Xbox

4. N64 vs 5. PSX

3. NES vs 6. Wii/11. Xbox 360

1. SNES vs 4. N64/5. PSX

3. NES vs 2. PS2

1. SNES vs 2. PS2


And frankly I don't see the SNES and PS2 as anywhere near as big a favorite as Zelda/Final Fantasy, Cloud/Link, FF7/OoT. We had a poll just last year which confirmed that only 71% of the current site ever owned an SNES... those aren't Link-like numbers! And sure, the PS2 dominates in terms of sales and site ownership, but I give the Wii a new Zelda and a new Mario and I bet it could take a run at it, and the NES might even be able to give it a good match as well. I'm not sold on the PS2 being a lock over any of the powerful consoles, really, aside from the PSX.

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:19:13 PM | message detail
SNES's performances in the favorite Nintendo console polls are just scary though. 48% against EVERY NINTENDO CONSOLE EVER MADE, as recently as 2005. It should be lower now, with the Wii out, but still.....we saw how hard it was even for the strongest characters to pull numbers near 50% in 4-ways this year, and SNES put up 48% in an 8-way, I think.
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Congratulations to Crono for making his first true finals match, your 5 time contest champion, Link, and the Guru Champion FastFalcon
trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 6:19:23 PM | message detail
PS2 would double the Wii, easily. SNES has already shown the ability to kill everything Nintendo. where's the debate here?

oh, did you mean stuff like DS vs. Gamecube? yeah, we had stuff like Sonic vs. Smash in the series contest, too. didn't make it good.
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 11/20/2008 6:20:18 PM | message detail
Brawl should take the GotY fairly easily over MGS4, if only for the massive difference in userbase between the Wii and the PS3, along with the whole split thing.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/20/2008 6:21:49 PM | message detail
More like, "because MGS4 is a bad game", HM.

I'm going to bed now.
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Free of lilih related Tyranny since 18/10/08.
Mother 3. That is all.
_Hogger_ | Posted 11/20/2008 6:22:46 PM | message detail
Brawl should take the GotY fairly easily over MGS4, if only for the massive difference in userbase between the Wii and the PS3, along with the whole split thing.

More like GTA4
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
ZFS | Posted 11/20/2008 6:23:04 PM | message detail
And frankly I don't see the SNES and PS2 as anywhere near as big a favorite as Zelda/Final Fantasy, Cloud/Link, FF7/OoT.

What? The SNES and PS2 would be far ahead of the closest competition - those are the two consoles for most people. You'd have the NES/N64/PS1 the next tier down, then the DS/GCN/360 after that. It wouldn't be a bad contest, but it's not all that unpredictable.

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Ngamer64 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:23:16 PM | message detail
LS, there wasn't "huge debate" about the Series final only because this board was so convinced of it going in the other direction!

Final Fantasy championship - predicted by 86 Guru brackets
Zelda championship - predicted by 22 Guru brackets

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thengamer.com/guru/ says we just got owned hard by FastFalcon!
(thengamer.com/xstats & board8.wikia.com are neat)
MartrebnoR | Posted 11/20/2008 6:23:44 PM | message detail
GTA4 is even more rehash than Brawl. And that's saying something.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/20/2008 6:23:52 PM | message detail
As far as GotY, I'd say Brawl has it over MGS4 easily. More people on GameFAQs own a Wii than a PS3, and MGS4 will have to split with Fallout 3, Gears 2, or GTAIV. Brawl will dominate the Wii poll, and the DS doesn't have much of anything notable aside from CTDS.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
FastFalcon sure showed us his moves in the Guru Contest!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/20/2008 6:24:55 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy championship - predicted by 86 Guru brackets

buncha chumps
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FastFalcon is in my sig. How can this be.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
_Hogger_ | Posted 11/20/2008 6:26:06 PM | message detail
Oh you're talking about a gamefaqs poll.. yeah, Brawl wins that

I was talking about the REAL game of the year
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 6:27:25 PM | message detail
the fanboy arguments would be brutal for that thing.

the second and third tier stuff would be up for debate -- for example, I'd drop the NES below anything of note, such as the 360 or maybe even the n64. your second tier would be the PS1, 360, maybe n64, and after that you'd have DS/GBA/NES/Gamecube. Nintendo having half the consoles would result in some weird form of SFF and we'd end up with thrilling matches like SNES vs. Intellivision. let's do this!
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
MichaelWClark | Posted 11/20/2008 6:28:07 PM | message detail

_Hogger_ (#144)
Oh you're talking about a gamefaqs poll.. yeah, Brawl wins that

I was talking about the REAL game of the year




Yes, but then you said Grand Theft Auto, so your vote is null.


MGS 4 in a landslide.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
_Hogger_ | Posted 11/20/2008 6:30:01 PM | message detail

From: MichaelWClark | #146

_Hogger_ (#144)
Oh you're talking about a gamefaqs poll.. yeah, Brawl wins that

I was talking about the REAL game of the year




Yes, but then you said Grand Theft Auto, so your vote is null.


MGS 4 in a landslide.



MGS4 isn't even the best PS3 game of the year.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a Guru Contest bracket better than I!
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/20/2008 6:31:02 PM | message detail
I know I said I was going to sleep. But I just need to say.

This board is full of sillies. Sillies who don't realise that times change. Sillies who had Cloud to beat Link in 2004 and 2005, Final Fantasy to beat Zelda despite tons of evidence to the contrary, sillies who had Zero to beat Luigi, sillies who had Master Chief going far this year...

The list goes on.

Remember these words well:

"lol xstats"
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Free of lilih related Tyranny since 18/10/08.
Mother 3. That is all.
trannyscience | Posted 11/20/2008 6:31:08 PM | message detail
speaking of fanboy arguments
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xyzzy
blah blah blah Fastfalcon blah blah blah Solid Snake blah blah blah Guru Contest blah
ZFS | Posted 11/20/2008 6:32:43 PM | message detail
Haha.

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