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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 639

Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 10:47:00 PM | message detail
Kirby stalled Snake there!
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Xuxon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:47:04 PM | message detail
Actually I thought there was a reasonable chance of it. But even right now if I had to guess, I'd say he doesn't.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 10:47:09 PM | message detail
Plus it's a safe bet that Sonic would've been dying here instead of soaking up all the Brawl votes.

...okay Sore Thumb Factor or not Kirby is starting to scare me.
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creativename | Posted 11/17/2008 10:48:43 PM | message detail
From 01:45 in the last match, Snake lost .72%, and Cloud gained 3.43%.

That gives Cloud 31.38% and Snake 30.81%.

Snake will probably lose more than that though, and Cloud will likely gain more than that. Although Snake losing more than .72% is more of a lock, since Sephiroth might rise more later too.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 10:49:26 PM | message detail
What percent does Kirby need to get on Snake anyways for us to have Big Boss > Snake?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 10:50:00 PM | message detail
Man, Cloud nearly tripled Sephiroth on that last update. Looks like Sephiroth felt like helping out his counterpart today argh
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2008 10:50:42 PM | message detail
Ok no. Don't do that Snake
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 10:51:09 PM | message detail
Snake only gained 15 on Kirby that time....!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 10:51:24 PM | message detail
I'm sorry I meant AUGH
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TeenTonyStark | Posted 11/17/2008 10:51:27 PM | message detail
People must be realizing that Sephiroth has no chance.
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Xuxon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:51:34 PM | message detail
And Sephiroth comes back to the match. Maybe he can win an update over Kirby overnight.
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ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 10:51:43 PM | message detail
Oh yeah - Cloud's got this.

What percent does Kirby need to get on Snake anyways for us to have Big Boss > Snake?

Oh man someone figure this out

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MetricTrout | Posted 11/17/2008 10:53:25 PM | message detail
Cloud will not continue to double Sephiroth with the day vote. Sephy has a better day vote anyway, and the casual voters during that time are not going to vote against Sephy just because he has no chance at winning. This should also hamper Cloud's day vote a bit.

See http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2923&type=0&seconds=60&max=0

Either way, this will be close. While Cloud is the heavy favorite right now, so was Vincent a few matches ago.
creativename | Posted 11/17/2008 10:53:38 PM | message detail
Snake only gained 15 on Kirby that time....!

Kirby's not placing.

While his day is better than Snake's, he'll just be plain weaker during the day than Snake.
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creativename | Posted 11/17/2008 10:54:47 PM | message detail
Cloud has the better day vote, Sephiroth has the better late night vote.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:56:09 PM | message detail
Big Boss - 56.65%
Kirby - 43.35%

Snake - 54.76%
Kirby - 45.24%

oh yes
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:56:45 PM | message detail
Cloud's got this. If he can take advantage of the FFVII Total Domination Zone (4-6) he might even be in the lead by morning.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 10:59:12 PM | message detail
Buncha Cloud fanboys up in this topic

man now I see why everyone hates him I see the light

and Kirby's not going to escape my ire either watch out ertyu
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transience | Posted 11/17/2008 10:59:36 PM | message detail
Kirby topping Snake would be interesting, and he's got the day vote to do it. he's just going to get KILLED overnight, I think.
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/17/2008 11:02:24 PM | message detail
If Kirby finishes at 23%, Snake needs to finish just a bit over 30% to match Big Boss %
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 11:03:13 PM | message detail
Also now that he's caught lightning in a bottle twice, yeah, I think we're gonna have our fair share of Kirby overrating come next contest. Don't say you weren't warned though!
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creativename | Posted 11/17/2008 11:03:15 PM | message detail
Kirby topping Snake would be interesting, and he's got the day vote to do it. he's just going to get KILLED overnight, I think.

Kirby's day vote will only look great compared to his overnight vote. Compared to his power hour and first couple hours vote, it will look pretty awful.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 11:04:03 PM | message detail
Snake by the Hour vs. Cloud:

1:00 | 54.18%
2:00 | 50.12%

Kirby by the Hour vs. Sephiroth:

1:00 | 66.48%
2:00 | 63.68%

Hmm....I still think Sephiroth can win an hour in the dead zone against Kirby.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2008 11:06:00 PM | message detail
I'd settle with just winning a 5 minute update if I were you. Maybe a 15 minute if you want to get greedy
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creativename | Posted 11/17/2008 11:07:03 PM | message detail
Sephiroth should win a few updates over Kirby, but I don't think he can get hours.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 11:13:39 PM | message detail
So any thoughts on how a Cloud/Seph 1v1 match would go these days?

...I mean geez Seph got 49% on this guy once upon a time
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/17/2008 11:17:12 PM | message detail
SNAKE EAAAATERRRRRR
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Mumei | Posted 11/17/2008 11:17:26 PM | message detail
So any thoughts on how a Cloud/Seph 1v1 match would go these days?

...I mean geez Seph got 49% on this guy once upon a time


<_<

About as well for Sephiroth as your attempts to 100% S-Rank Orta have been so far for you. =)

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TeenTonyStark | Posted 11/17/2008 11:17:34 PM | message detail
Sephiroth fans are bowing out so Cloud can overtaker Snake.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 11:34:54 PM | message detail
I just noticed that we have 1 character from each division in the semis,
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 11:39:38 PM | message detail
Sephiroth fans are bowing out so Cloud can overtaker Snake.

False. >.>
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 11:43:52 PM | message detail
Under 600 again.
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xp1337 | Posted 11/17/2008 11:57:07 PM | message detail
Seph gets a cut on Kirby. Only a single vote, but he did get it.
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Mr3790 | Posted 11/17/2008 11:59:00 PM | message detail
Unfortunate that Snake>Cloud isn't going to last...
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/18/2008 12:00:52 AM | message detail
Sephiroth finally cuts!
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Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/18/2008 12:01:45 AM | message detail
God, this was so obvious! People like MWC are so not smart...
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/18/2008 12:02:08 AM | message detail
Unfortunate that Snake>Cloud isn't going to last...

Snake apparently wanted to hear none of that and just increased his lead by 22.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/18/2008 12:22:49 AM | message detail
Cloud wants the lead by morning it seems
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2008 12:24:21 AM | message detail
Cloud is so much of a jackass that it actually hurts me to think about it.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/18/2008 12:49:00 AM | message detail
Kirby's under 25% now.

Come on hold Big Boss > Snake....
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/18/2008 12:57:10 AM | message detail
Wasn't there an IGN tournament with Solid and Naked Snake going 50-50?
Gaddswell | Posted 11/18/2008 1:02:43 AM | message detail
555 votes for Snake at the start of the dead hours.

All downhill from here. Time to see if he holds on until the end of the morning!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2008 1:26:24 AM | message detail
Wasn't there an IGN tournament with Solid and Naked Snake going 50-50?

Yeah, Solid barely beat Naked Snake in Round 1 and then cruised through the rest of the tournament. He even beat Wolverine easily.
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whatev | Posted 11/18/2008 1:42:47 AM | message detail
I almost want to rally Snake for CN's sake. Winning both the Oracle and the overall contest would be an incredible achievement. Unfortunately, I don't think he's gonna be able to pull it off.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/18/2008 1:48:03 AM | message detail
Yeah, cn's one of the most worthy winners I can think of, although I figure he'd rather win a more traditional contest. If this is somehow (believe) still close at the end, I'll rally for Snake for Snake's sake, but having a fellow Board 8er win because of it would be an added bonus.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/18/2008 2:59:05 AM | message detail
To all the people saying Kirby voters are dumb for not voting Snake: we don't give a **** about Snake. Snake>Cloud with Seph in the poll is not much of an upset, and it sure as hell ain't funny. Snake>Kirby beating 2/3rds of Clinkeroth though?

Hilarious
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transience | Posted 11/18/2008 3:37:44 AM | message detail
Snake winning the morning..?
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CP724 | Posted 11/18/2008 4:22:58 AM | message detail
Just wondering if many people in the top 30 have snake>cloud today? Curious if I'll get a prize.
Calintares | Posted 11/18/2008 4:29:57 AM | message detail
how many of Sepiroth's votes are taken directly from Cloud?

the FFVII duo have a combined of 45% here, but I doubt Cloud would get that number were he alone.
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Demon HunterX | Posted 11/18/2008 4:35:08 AM | message detail
so snake is winning the morning so far it seems? I just woke up at like 720 and it seems hes made two 15ish vote gains.
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