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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 638

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 5:36:12 PM | message detail
If Vincent had advanced instead of Crono,what would the results be?

Link > Vincent. Unless you mean the finals, whick would likely be Link > Snake.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MartrebnoR | Posted 11/17/2008 5:38:49 PM | message detail
Hey, I just noticed Sprottle's account is closed. He actually went on his word, amazing.
Majin Lou | Posted 11/17/2008 6:22:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-62-1.jpg

Isn't that MGS3 Naked Snake, or is that MGS3 Snake vs. Monkey Solid Snake?
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But the scars of memory never fade away. I can't stop loving you.
Stop my tears. Stop my loving. Kill my memories.
TeenTonyStark | Posted 11/17/2008 6:25:51 PM | message detail
Unless you mean the finals, whick would likely be Link > Snake.

No. It'd still be Link>Cloud
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http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i160/xntn/Squarein/villains.jpg http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i160/xntn/Squarein/heroes.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 6:31:18 PM | message detail
Hmm. Either way, some people are flirting with the idea of Kirby making the finals. Though I seriously doubt that'll happen. It sounds like a leap of faith.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/17/2008 6:31:45 PM | message detail
An awesome leap of faith that's totally worth taking.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
TeenTonyStark | Posted 11/17/2008 6:32:48 PM | message detail
I personally want Kirby, since Cloud>Link would actually have a chance. However, there's still Crono stinking everything up.
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http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i160/xntn/Squarein/villains.jpg http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i160/xntn/Squarein/heroes.jpg
wavedash101 | Posted 11/17/2008 6:33:05 PM | message detail
All aboard the Kirby train. Next stop the finals
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 6:36:22 PM | message detail
Again, it's a big gamble, and it seems a bit too risky for me to consider.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/17/2008 6:37:21 PM | message detail
Link/Crono/Snake/Kirby finals.

Believe
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Demyx is better than Axel.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/17/2008 6:49:34 PM | message detail
Has anyone seriously considered the possibility of CT:DS hype being a boost to Crono? I mean, Nintendo Power did a big article on the thing, and you know how the kiddies love that magazine!

No. This isn't a major release. The biggest benefit from CT:DS will come from exposing a new generation to the game, and the DS is the perfect way to do it. I can see the DS port outselling the SNES and PS1 versions combined. At the very least, it opens him up to the European market, which should do wonders for his horrerndous morning vote.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/17/2008 6:59:49 PM | message detail
I can see Crono surviving for a few more years at Noble Nine level after the DS port comes out, but after that he has nowhere to go but down...
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
Greenmonkey034 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:06:20 PM | message detail
Any chance for Cloud>Kirby tomorrow?

I'm guessing something like:
Cloud 32%
Kirby 25%
Snake 23%
Sephiroth 20%
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Celtics>Lakers
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 7:07:46 PM | message detail
okay we can calm down with the Kirby stuff anytime now. he beat Sonic by 2%. yay.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 7:07:55 PM | message detail
So I've finally figured out Snake's Path to Victory even with Kirby in the match... and that it will be, of course, that Sephiroth will "feel like" making it happen! Thus my revised prediction:

Snake 30%
Sephiroth 28%
Cloud 27%
Kirby 15%

And I've never been wrong before now if you'll excuse me I have some Metroid Fusion bosses to defeat
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:09:13 PM | message detail
No, Kirby only got 23% last round; he isn't getting higher than that against a much stronger pack, and he's probably going to end up a long way below that.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
HaRRicH | Posted 11/17/2008 7:09:54 PM | message detail
Guys, remember when Big Boss smashed Kirby? This is Solid Snake here. Kirby should take fourth unless Sephiroth sucks it up.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 7:11:49 PM | message detail
I've had that on my mind all day - with no Raiden in the match, Big Boss - NOT Naked Snake - beats Kirby (and thus Sonic).

this Sonic match just doesn't make sense.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 7:11:51 PM | message detail
Kirby obviously has static trends. He's getting that 23% I am 100% sure of this

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 7:12:09 PM | message detail
Kirby is Zidane confirmed
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 7:13:34 PM | message detail
The most fortuitous thing that could happen is that the Kirby > Sonic result was an utter utter fluke, and Snake just pounds the puffball into the ground giving him the margin he needs.

Y'know, as long as Sephiroth says it's alright and all.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:14:57 PM | message detail
Well, Big Boss got 58.30% on Magus last year, and Sonic couldn't break 60%......account for Mario SFFing the Brawl fanbase away from Big Boss and there you have it!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 7:16:56 PM | message detail
there's no other explanation other than massive fluke. it just doesn't line up with anything. I just say "lol this format" and move on. whatever happened a couple days ago should be stricken from our memories and ignored.
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xyzzy
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 7:17:19 PM | message detail
Well, Big Boss got 58.30% on Magus last year, and Sonic couldn't break 60%......account for Mario SFFing the Brawl fanbase away from Big Boss and there you have it!

I'm still convinced that you guys are going to seriously overrate Kirby next 1v1 contest because of an utter fluke.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:18:05 PM | message detail
I wasn't being serious about Big Boss > Sonic, if it wasn't obvious.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
BDawg | Posted 11/17/2008 7:18:51 PM | message detail
Dumb pink ball factor: Jigglypuff is a guaranteed midcarder CONFIRMED.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 7:19:52 PM | message detail
No one's going to overrate Kirby to any ridiculous degree unless he repeats that magic in a few hours. I mean, sure, you might have a few people taking him over the Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi trio (and really, who's to say they're necessarily wrong?), but considering him over the FF near-elites won't really be happening.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 7:21:20 PM | message detail
according to that match, he's within striking range of Auron - even moreso if you think the Bag hurts Sonic. that means Big Boss has reversed a 70/30 result to a likely victory.

yay!
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xyzzy
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 7:22:04 PM | message detail
I'm thinking that either this is a massive fluke or Sonic's non-hardcore fanbase completely abandoned him. I'm sure that casual voters instead voted for Sephiroth (or Dante) and the Nintendo voters - the other big portion of Sonic's fanbase - threw their votes to Kirby instead, leaving Sonic to fall back on his (rather small) hardcore fanbase.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 7:23:50 PM | message detail
according to that match, he's within striking range of Auron - even moreso if you think the Bag hurts Sonic. that means Big Boss has reversed a 70/30 result to a likely victory.

i believe
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Master Moltar | Posted 11/17/2008 7:29:45 PM | message detail
METALFEAR
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This is not my GameFOX sig...
Therefore, it doesn't exist!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/17/2008 7:33:25 PM | message detail
The best Kirby can hope for tomorrow is 20% is enough to beat a severely crippled Sephiroth. It all depends on how much Snake and Cloud feel like dominating Oedipus. I think it will go more like 30-28-22-20, Cloud > Snake > Seph > Kirby
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
Greenmonkey034 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:43:11 PM | message detail
I think people underestimate the fact that there are three fairly serious characters and one cute pink ball. You can't count Kirby out of this.
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Celtics>Lakers
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 7:44:59 PM | message detail
There is point where even cute pink balls are way out of their league (and I'd consider Sonic as such here, too). Kirby > Seph would be absurdly awesome but I'm not expecting even that.
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Mustache...and green...
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 7:47:12 PM | message detail
Also, Kirby beat Sonic....by 2%. I'm not convinced he has much of a chance here. Then again, Sonic would be out of his league here, as well.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 7:54:03 PM | message detail
I think the best Kirby can hope for is to sneak by Sephiroth for second, though I'd doubt even that. He may stand out, but it isn't gonna help against the second, third, and likely fourth strongest characters in this thing.

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 7:56:18 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm still pretty wary of a Kirby overperformance, despite my bluster (people people Snake is invincible). Sore Thumb Factor is definitely real, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see it come into play here - this would've been my stance even if there had been no Sonic defeat in the mix.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/17/2008 8:14:00 PM | message detail
If anything, I am curious to know what L-Block can do in a traditional 1 vs. 1 format.
luke | Posted 11/17/2008 8:15:53 PM | message detail
Kirby can impress here -- but it's going to be an impressive third place, not an impressive second place.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 8:16:05 PM | message detail
It's going to take more than just standing out to do enough to advance out of this group. If we're talking about overperforming to the extent that he is safely ahead of Sephiroth, that's no big deal. If it's enough to stop Snake from advancing...well...

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 11/17/2008 8:17:53 PM | message detail
Match LXII: Cloud Strife vs. Solid Snake vs. Sephiroth vs. Kirby

Last Round:

Cloud Strife – 38.41%
Solid Snake – 29.14%
Weighted Companion Cube – 19.18%
Mewtwo – 13.27%

Well the final joke character was eliminated and that pretty much is the highlight of the match. Snake was able to get close enough to Cloud to have a chance at placing first in tomorrow’s match. Really that match might as well have been considered a break because none of the characters were close to one another.

Sephiroth – 38.50%
Kirby – 23.10%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 21.50%
Dante – 16.90%

What happened here? While Sonic losing wasn’t as much of a surprise after his round 2 performance, but losing to Kirby was. I guess Kirby was able to steal any Brawl support that could have gone Sonic’s way. Still if someone was to win I’d expect it to be Dante, who did much better after the board vote, but was never really in the match.

Analysis:

So here we have two FFVII guys, another NN character and a noble nine breaker. Once again SFF will be the demise of Sephiroth, but will he be able to drag Cloud to an embarrassing performance. Also Kirby is once again the odd ball can he surprise the world by advancing to the finals?

The main attraction of this match is whether or not Solid Snake can turn that 57/43 defeat into a win with Sephiroth in the poll. With both characters being in the same game the overlap between them is large. However fanbase overlap is something very hard to measure and if FFVII decide to throw their support towards Cloud rather than splitting evenly Cloud could still come out on top.

Cloud while the second most dominating force in this contest he still can succumb to LFF. Snake has shown that he is much stronger than what he was last year and even then he was already impressive. Not many characters would have been expected to break 43% on him and with only so many FFVII fans Cloud has to hope that the fanbase that shows up tomorrow to vote is on Cloud’s side rather than Sephiroth.

Kirby has looked much better ever since his first round loss to Big Boss which begs the question, is Naked Snake worth almost as much as Solid Snake himself? While Kirby is going to be the odd ball for the third time I don’t see him beating Sephiroth let alone placing. The FFVII fans would have to heavily favour Cloud by much more than usual for Kirby to have a chance. Still it would be hilarious if Kirby was able to pull the upset of all time.

Sephiroth has had an unlucky run at this contest; out of the five rounds only one of them allowed him to show his true strength. It’s not a shame that Sephiroth has to lose to Cloud again because outside of an L-Block-like rally he isn’t losing to anyone besides Link and Cloud in a normal match.

It’s a weird feeling knowing that Kirby is the second to last Nintendo character to be eliminated. With such terrible board votes it will be interesting to see how long Snake and Kirby will be ahead of Cloud and Sephiroth respectively. With Snake doing so well last round against Cloud the upset is there, but I think Cloud will narrowly take this match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cloud > Solid Snake

charmander6000’s Prediction: Cloud – 31.42%, Solid Snake – 28.73%, Sephiroth – 22.52%, Kirby – 17.33%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 359/512 Today's Match: Link > Mario
Gaddswell | Posted 11/17/2008 8:18:04 PM | message detail
If Kirby does advance here.... he'd become the first non-noble, non-joke character to actually reach the finals!

Let's go Kirby!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
HaRRicH | Posted 11/17/2008 8:18:20 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, Kirby will over-perform I'm sure...but how much more this round than last round? Solid pre-MGS4/SSBB beat Sonic substantially worse last year than Kirby did last round and Kirby already had great stand-out pics.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
satai_delenn | Posted 11/17/2008 8:19:41 PM | message detail
I feel like Snake > Cloud is more likely than Kirby advancing.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2008 8:20:56 PM | message detail
I expect most if not all people feel that way.

Kirby beating Sephiroth is more likely than Sephiroth beating Snake though.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 8:22:25 PM | message detail
I'd definitely say Snake > Cloud is more likely than Kirby advancing, though I don't think either one is going to happen.

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/17/2008 8:23:23 PM | message detail
Nobody thinks Snake can finish first here?
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 8:28:40 PM | message detail
It's going to be fun seeing Snake have a huge lead in the very beginning.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Master Moltar | Posted 11/17/2008 8:30:04 PM | message detail
It's going to be fun seeing Kirby have a huge lead in the very beginning.
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hmm
well then
trannyscience | Posted 11/17/2008 8:31:10 PM | message detail
this reminds me of when Knuckles beat Magus and then everyone claimed he was going to beat Squall. he actually got decently close, but... yeah.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
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