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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 638

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 12:27:15 PM | message detail
At least hold the lead for one update this time, Snake!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 12:28:08 PM | message detail
Go Mario
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/17/2008 12:28:36 PM | message detail
Kirby > Sephiroth.

Nah I'm just kiddin I know that Sephy stands no chance to advance.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 12:41:36 PM | message detail
Its funny how Crono still finds a way to lose .02% that update when nobody else gained percentage
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http://videogames.techfresh.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/wow-wrath-of-the-lich-king.jpg
MartrebnoR | Posted 11/17/2008 12:56:46 PM | message detail
How does that work?
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 12:59:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:01:48 PM | message detail
Wow, Link had a 46% update there.

As for Mario vs. Crono, the best I would hope for Crono getting right now would be 48%. People seem to be forgetting that Mario only beat Crono with a little under 54% in 2005, and there really isn't much reason to believe he'd do better now. The Deboost has looked very real for the Mario characters at least, which is what matters here. Yoshi only got 42% on Squall, Luigi couldn't get 55% against Liquid, and Bowser finished embarassingly close to Phoenix Wright, even with Luigi in there.

What about Mario himself? He disappointed in round 2, but I am willing to let that slide because there was lots of SFF there and he was the obvious favorite. In round 3 he beat X by more, but still didn't come close to what I would have expected from 2007 Mario. In round 4 he beat X by his biggest margin yet with Link in the poll, and came within 1200 votes of losing to Zack. Mario got 35% on Link, compared to 38% last year. Today, he's at 34.22% on Link and falling rapidly. He's also at 53.66% on Samus, a good 6% below his performance on her directly in 2005 and the Battle Royale in 2006. The BR match had Link in it and Mario got almost exactly the same percentage as the 2005 match, so we can't just blame Link either.

This isn't the same Mario that pummeled Snake-lookalike Big Boss and got 23% in a pack with Link, Sephiroth, and Vincent last year. The Mario characters have universally looked more like their 2003-4 selves than their 2005-7 selves this year. As for Kirby, consider that he got 45% on Squall in 2004, whereas Luigi only managed 40% in 2003. After the Boost, Luigi then beat Kirby with 52%. Take that as you will. Maybe Luigi, Yoshi, and Bowser have all dropped and Mario has found a way to lose SFF situations he was able to do well in last year without losing overall strength, but he's running out of excuses.

Mewtwo did put up 58% on Squall, yes, and I wouldn't dream of taking him over Squall, but Link/Mario SFF is also not remotely comparable to Cloud/Squall SFF. Zack is a better gauge, really, as the situation was much closer to today's much (just substituting MMX with Samus), and Zack improved from 30% to 34% on Link thanks to the LFF. That suggests Crono is in the 35% range on Link 1v1, about where Mario finished last round and higher than where he's going to finish today. Link probably SFF'd Mario some, so he should still be stronger than Crono now, but I can see that match going 52-48, and I'd be surprised if Mario broke 55%.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
hailEC | Posted 11/17/2008 1:03:13 PM | message detail
I pretty much agree with all of that, except I think I'd peg Mario for 53%, but that's just splitting hairs.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 1:03:31 PM | message detail
Crono is winning a match with Mario in the poll. It counts as a Crono win, even with the match-affecting SFF.

He needed the other two strongest Nintendo characters to pull it off. He is beating Mario, but it's not much of a 'win.'

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tee316 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:06:52 PM | message detail
Yea, Crono is beating Mario. I hope we get a 1 on 1 contest soon, so we can see how they rank now a days.
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 1:09:47 PM | message detail
I really want to see how Crono and Mario stack up relative to each other nowadays...
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 1:16:51 PM | message detail
A win's a win, but with this format, the question of legitimacy will always be raised. It's impossible to formulate a standardized criteria, so I just ask myself a simple question in order to better judge the legitimacy of a match.

"Might this match result convince me to take X Character (in this case, Crono) over Y Character (Mario) in a 1v1 scenario?"

Today, the answer is no. Yesterday, though, the answer with Kirby/Sonic was a "maybe." It's easy AND fun!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 1:18:34 PM | message detail
A Mario/Crono match isn't one that I think too many people would need to think about - Mario would win comfortably over Crono, probably not too far off from where he was in 2005. The only reason to consider Crono there is if you think Mario has taken a major nosedive from where he's been the past couple of years, which requires judging him entirely off of SFF matches this year, or you believe that CTDS will be significant (a stretch, if you ask me - the next time we see Crono CTDS will have been nearly a year old, and doubt you'll see anything of serious note there).

If we see any sort of 'resurgence' of Nintendo here within the next year, we should see Mario back up to the levels we've been used to seeing him at, too. He rises and falls with how people are feeling about Nintendo at the time - and considering that, he's bound to not hold up the same way in SFF matches that we'd normally expect.

There's some reason to be down on Mario, but not to the extent that we're talking about Crono beating him. You have to really want it to happen to consider the two equals now, de-boost or not.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/17/2008 1:18:35 PM | message detail
And for the people saying four way is better, the entire point of a tournament like this is to determine the strength order of whoevers in it. Not to create random, unpredictable match results where the winner is determined by who else is in the match with them. If its too predictable then we need to do a different kind of contest, like a non game character contest.

the entire point of a tournament like this is to create an interesting contest that people want to follow and participate in, while also making a bracket that is easier for non-statheads to win. Had last year been 1v1, I can pretty much guarentee someone from this board would have won, which isn't really fair to the other 30,000 bracketmakers.

Although having a second consecutive 4-way contest was kind of silly. Games this year followed by a return to 1v1 next fall would have been the best course of action IMO. Games contest will be pretty damn unpredictable in any format, so long as we get a decent nomination/division system.

And I hope noone thinks Crono does any better than he did in 2005 on Mario in a 1v1 situation.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 1:26:31 PM | message detail
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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 1:28:11 PM | message detail
I love Mario, but just look at what the guy's doing. He's getting crushed by Crono, SFF or no - a Crono that utilized shenanigans to barely overcome Vincent. He barely managed to hold off Zack (so close ;_;). Heck, he's making SAMUS look like she has hope for a rematch between them!

If Crono hadn't looked so disappointing over the past two years, I'd take that upset in a heartbeat. Snake, who I wouldn't have dreamed taking over him before this contest, should probably be considered the favorite: even sapping ALL of the Brawl Boost, 43% + MGS4 + Mario drop is a win, and even Mario can't sap everything. Link > Cloud > Seph > Snake > Samus > Mario > Crono > Mega Man > Sonic seems to be the new order of the Noble Nine, imho
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 1:31:35 PM | message detail
And before anyone else says it, yes, Mario has been thrown into a lot of SFF-fests. However, if you're powerful enough with it, you can still come out of 'em looking golden. Look at Link here. One might think it's unfair to compare Mario to Link, but Mario nearly pounded Samus in 2k5 as badly as the Hylian did. I expect more from my favorite plumber - letting the presence of Zelda and Mudkip lead to a near-upset by MMX is not a part of that.
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turnturnturn your brain in
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 1:33:08 PM | message detail
Snake is probably a toss-up, but I think Mario would still utilize SFF for a comfy win against Samus. I actually think she might be overperforming against him at the moment. Samus does seem the least Nintendo-y of the Nintendo hotshots, and with Link owning up the traditional Nintendo fanbase, it's not unreasonable to think Samus might be using her outside appeal to her advantage.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/17/2008 1:33:17 PM | message detail
I don't see how you can consider Mario to have dropped that much when every single match of his was him getting drained by other Nintendo characters and making an unknown independent character look great. Would you take X over Auron? Or Dante?

Would you take Zack over Luigi? How about Zero?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:35:28 PM | message detail
Again, this match needs to be looked at in light of what we saw in the triple LFF match where Mewtwo came out looking like a champ with 58% on Squall. Of course Crono's going to look good here. And, yeah, Mario's going to look bad when he's had to deal with triple LFF in every single match he's been in.
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Mustache...and green...
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:36:04 PM | message detail
Mario has been SFFd in basically EVERY one of his matches this year. It's entirely unfair to call this a nosedive.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 1:36:45 PM | message detail
Thing is, we had the same thing going on in 2006. And the end result is that Link and Mario ended up fodderizing Samus. The only difference there I can see is that you had more opponents, but ultimately today we're just substituting CT for FF7. There's no reason for Samus to be doing THIS much better on Mario on the face of it.
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turnturnturn your brain in
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 1:36:57 PM | message detail
Mario has been SFFd in basically EVERY one of his matches this year. It's entirely unfair to call this a nosedive.

This.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:37:09 PM | message detail
Actually, forget basically.

He has been SFFd in every match this year.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 1:37:31 PM | message detail
did crono just gain 45 votes in a 2 minute update?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 1:39:07 PM | message detail
And before anyone else says it, yes, Mario has been thrown into a lot of SFF-fests.

cry more
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turnturnturn your brain in
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:39:24 PM | message detail
Yep, and Samus cut Mario again.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:39:26 PM | message detail
It's been argued in the past that Samus draws more of her fanbase from outside Nintendo - this was part of the argument for taking Mario in 2k5, and part of the reason that her trends are balanced compared to the day-heavy Nintendo guys. You put Cloud, Seph, and Snake in a poll, and suddenly that support outside of Nintendo dries up. Here, she can still get some of it with only Crono to compete with.
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Mustache...and green...
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:39:52 PM | message detail
... 45 votes in two minutes...

Stuff much?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/17/2008 1:40:20 PM | message detail
Sonic is stronger than MegaMan. I don't see how people suggest otherwise...this contest is a setback but it doesn't represent a significant drop that puts him below MM. In a legitimate setting (ie 1v1) where cheating would almost certainly be punished (I suppose you can hide behind it in this format, eh Kirby? dickhead), Sonic trounces MM.
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JUSTICE FOR FD
I use to worry about a McCain presidency but after playing some Fallout 3 I feel I could survive well enough. - ISS
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:40:46 PM | message detail
However, by the same logic, that means removing Samus would not help Mario all that much relative to Crono, because most of her Nintendo fanbase has already been SFF'd away by Link and Mario.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
ZFS | Posted 11/17/2008 1:40:56 PM | message detail
He's getting crushed by Crono, SFF or no - a Crono that utilized shenanigans to barely overcome Vincent.

We've seen this time and again, though. Check out any match where you have one standout character among three others that share a fanbase - the standout usually dominates. This should end up with Crono about 5% above Mario, with him sharing a poll with Link and Samus. Is that what most expected? Probably not, given a quick glance of the percentages on the Crew, but not so far ahead that it should come as a surprise. It was a real stretch to even consider Mario to make a match of this - and I say that as someone who favored Mario in every plausible situation he had to benefit when taking this upset.

But your ranking of the Noble Nine probably isn't too far off. 'Tiering' them within that ranking I think you've got Clinkeroth, then the Mario/Snake/Samus, then Crono in the middle, and Sonic/Mega Man closing it out. Don't know how much I take this year to apply to four-ways, but as far as this year goes, it looks solid.

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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:41:47 PM | message detail
I'd honestly put Mega Man over Sonic.

I don't know why, but I can't imagine Mega Man losing to Auron.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/17/2008 1:42:30 PM | message detail
He needed the other two strongest Nintendo characters to pull it off. He is beating Mario, but it's not much of a 'win.'

You're right, but a win is a win. Sonic's win over Crono ranks as the most impressive contest win ever, considering the roundly unfair opposition he had ITT, while Mario getting just 55% on Shadow is one of the least impressive performances ever. But a win is a win. It still goes down as a "1" in his win column.
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JUSTICE FOR FD
I use to worry about a McCain presidency but after playing some Fallout 3 I feel I could survive well enough. - ISS
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 1:43:34 PM | message detail
Sonic is stronger than MegaMan. I don't see how people suggest otherwise...this contest is a setback but it doesn't represent a significant drop that puts him below MM. In a legitimate setting (ie 1v1) where cheating would almost certainly be punished (I suppose you can hide behind it in this format, eh Kirby? dickhead), Sonic trounces MM.

I'm guessing you don't have any legitimate reasons, right? Mega Man barely won in 2005. Solid Snake put up nearly identical performances on both of them in 2006. Both have had pretty awful performances in 2007 and 2008. Where's this "Sonic trounces MM" stuff? Brawl? MORE LIKE LAWL

By next year, these two would probably find a way to both lose to each other.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:43:43 PM | message detail
I can't imagine Megaman losing to Kirby. Sonic's definitely last in the Noble Nine in 4-ways, and probably in 1v1s also.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:44:12 PM | message detail
No, her core is definitely Nintendo, and she's been reduced to mostly her core here. But the extra percent or three that she's got over Mario is probably from outside. That would be my guess, anyway.

Maybe I'm wrong, because I still find Link > Cloud > Samus > Seph to be a puzzling result.
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Mustache...and green...
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 1:44:47 PM | message detail
But considering Mega Man stunk it up big time against Sora...
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:46:38 PM | message detail
Again, it's unfair to call this contest awful for Megs, especially when you consider X was more or less a Mega Man proxy.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:47:06 PM | message detail
From: Fayt_Esteed
But considering Mega Man stunk it up big time against Sora...

Would you take Kirby > Sora?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/17/2008 1:51:26 PM | message detail
Sora doesn't seem to perform that much worse than Squall nowadays. I don't think Megaman's match against Sora was THAT bad.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/17/2008 1:53:42 PM | message detail
I would easily take X over MM after this contest. I don't MM would have almost beaten Mario, LFF or not.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 1:55:14 PM | message detail
Actually, I'm going to humor the comparison with Mewtwo's match again- but Mario and Squall are not the right characters to compare. Squall was the Square character who got SFF'd the hardest, and that corresponds to Samus here. Crono has 60.62% on Samus currently, and will finish above 60%. He got 45% last round with Vincent and Pikachu in the poll, and I doubt Crono/Vincent LFF is more substantial than Samus/Pikachu LFF, so he would likely finish below that in a 1v1, probably in the 43-44% area. That's not too far from the swing Mewtwo got on Squall, and Crono doesn't stand out today as much as Mewtwo did.

Incidentally, Link got 69.92% on Samus last year. He's getting 69.15% now, and rising. Mario is the odd man out here.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/17/2008 2:02:33 PM | message detail
Sora doesn't seem to perform that much worse than Squall nowadays. I don't think Megaman's match against Sora was THAT bad.

You can only say this if you take their matches with EACH OTHER at face value - and considering what Squall did to Sora unhindered last year, that hardly makes a good comparison.

But it's easiest, I think, to take their first round matches from this year to illustrate the point. Sora got 56% on Fox. Squall got 58% on Yoshi. Squall is significantly stronger, no two bones about it.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 2:06:18 PM | message detail
Nonsense. The hit Squall took was minimally greater than the hit Sora took - less than a percent difference between the two with and without Cloud. And, if anything, Mario's getting hit harder here than Samus.

I certainly don't understand the idea that Samus could take Mario in a rematch based on this poll - he's cleanly ahead of her and you've gotta figure a lot of Link votes go his way.
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Mustache...and green...
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 2:08:42 PM | message detail
Squall starts out farther ahead of Sora though, so he was SFF'd harder. Mario starts out behind Samus indirectly, and is beating her today because of the Nintendo SFF. Link is getting almost the same percentage he got on Samus last year, but Mario is doing a lot worse than in previous matches with both Link and Samus.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 2:10:19 PM | message detail
And no one is saying Samus could take Mario in a direct match, just that she's stronger indirectly. Mario wins the SFF against Samus pretty severely- which is why it's not fair to compare Mario with Squall (or Sora for that matter). He's getting SFF'd by Link not nearly as badly as those 2 were by Cloud, and he's on the plus side of SFF against Samus.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 2:13:04 PM | message detail
Hm? The last time we saw Link, Samus, and Mario in a poll together was day 1 of the Battle Royale, where Mario got a hair under 30% of the Link/Mario votes. Here, he's avoiding the doubling.
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Mustache...and green...
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2008 2:16:54 PM | message detail
I can't imagine Megaman losing to Kirby. Sonic's definitely last in the Noble Nine in 4-ways, and probably in 1v1s also.

Who imagined Sonic losing to Kirby before it happened yesterday? No one. I really doubt Mega Man is that much stronger than he is. He's just gotten lucky not to have to deal with Noble Nine breakers the last two contests (unless you want to count the Cube, I guess).
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 2:17:26 PM | message detail
However, Samus also did much worse that day: Mario got about 60% on her, just like in their 2005 match. Link had a much larger proportion of the Nintendo votes than he does today, probably because that was the first day of non-1v1 polls and voters just voted for their favorite, or because we were 4 days away from TP, or whatever reason. Link is getting an almost identical percentage on Samus as he had last year in the match with Cloud and Sephiroth. Mario had 38% against Link last year, and this year he got 35% last round and probably under 34% today.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
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