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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 637

PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/17/2008 9:55:40 AM | message detail
I didn't think i'd see Mario losing to Crono!

Have people finally had enough of the red plumber?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 9:59:11 AM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #451
I didn't think i'd see Mario losing to Crono!

Have people finally had enough of the red plumber?



Massive nintendo SFF fest
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:06:28 AM | message detail
Something I just noticed: Zack only improved from 30% to 34% against Link when Duke and Altair were replaced with Mario and X. That's a surprisingly small amount of LFF. Crono is has 41.66% on Link right now, so Zack suggests that Crono could still put up around 36% on Link directly, only 1% lower than he did in 2004.

That may or may not be too exciting, but Crono will probably finish around 57% on Mario, which suggests that Crono is Mario's equal if Link/Mario hurt each other equally in this match and last round, that is to say, they are in an LFF but not an SFF situation.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:09:52 AM | message detail
Looking at the morning vote... I love how Mario couldn't do mroe then a few very minor cuts with the morning vote and Crono won the morning vote overall by far

I'm not even counting this as a win in Crono's favor in their series. This is a joke.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 10:13:45 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #454
Looking at the morning vote... I love how Mario couldn't do mroe then a few very minor cuts with the morning vote and Crono won the morning vote overall by far

I'm not even counting this as a win in Crono's favor in their series. This is a joke.



Mario fanboys at their finest
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:14:29 AM | message detail
I don't even like Mario that much, but you'd have to be a huge Crono fanboy to think he's even close to the Plumber.
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:16:49 AM | message detail
Why in the balls would you take Link > Mario in the first place with three nintendo and one not nintendo in the poll?
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hailEC | Posted 11/17/2008 10:18:40 AM | message detail
Link > Mario here has to be one of the worst picks anyone could have made.

then again to have a good bracket this contest you probably had to have made a good variety of bad picks

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red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:19:30 AM | message detail
Continuing with that line of thought, I do think Link is SFFing Mario a bit, so Mario should still be ahead of Crono, but Mario's not that far below what I would guess he would get on Link indirectly....he's actually very close to his 2004 value on Link right now. Another 2004 reference? Hmm....

Going back to Zack, he looks good to be a solid high-midcarder on the edge of the near-elite. I'll take him over Aeris, the Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi trio, and probably Kirby 1v1.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 10:20:42 AM | message detail
Mario fanboys at their finest

Bracket fanboys. Just remember that I was in second place when Master Hand beat Kuja.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 10:22:07 AM | message detail
It was a given that whoever won the Vincent/Crono match up was a lock for the finals unless L Block ruined things again (Which fortunently he didn't)
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:31:37 AM | message detail
Link > Mario was a pick made solely because I wanted Cloud > Link to happen, and I figured Mario would hold up better against Samus and Link than he actually did... a LOT better, actually. It was a huge reach, but not one of the worst picks or anything like that.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:32:46 AM | message detail
And had I kept Link > Crono, then Link > Cloud in the finals, I'd have just as much shot at winning things as I do now, so I'm not too upset.

Games Contest is going to be so great when things go back to the way they're supposed to. FFVII winning.
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:33:37 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2562

Why would you think this again?
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/17/2008 10:34:26 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:35:44 AM | message detail
I mean, I have little room to talk here: I took Vincent > Crono and my bracket is in the trash, but the winner of Vincent/Crono was given a spot in the finals as a gift.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:36:00 AM | message detail
Why would you think this again?

That poll has Cloud, Sephiroth and Snake in it.

Plus, I figured Crono would hold up less well here than he is as well. Add to the fact that he's not really even close to Mario in strength and it's really not a bad upset pick. Well, until you start seeing how well C has been doing throughout the contest.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/17/2008 10:36:58 AM | message detail
Is the game contest going to be 1 vs 1 or continue with this lame ass format?

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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:37:40 AM | message detail
I mean, I have little room to talk here: I took Vincent > Crono and my bracket is in the trash, but the winner of Vincent/Crono was given a spot in the finals as a gift.

hindsight is 20/20 for me, yeah, but the pick had logic behind it that wasn't all that bad. Mario let me down, and Crono exceeded expectations.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:38:29 AM | message detail
If the Games Contest is 4-ways I'm not even entering it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 10:38:49 AM | message detail
4way game contest would be best thing ever imho
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 10:39:17 AM | message detail
If the Games Contest is 4-ways I'm not even entering it.

This.
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Tohoya | Posted 11/17/2008 10:40:04 AM | message detail
Seeding based on strength sometimes take a back seat if the match-up is good.

Remind me why we have seeding in the first place? I mean, I understand if you're like in the NFL, and you want to reward good play during the regular season, or if you simply want to reward excellence in every form. But these characters aren't conscious beings, which can appreciate being placed in a high seeding and want to win themselves. I say screw seeding, and create a bracket that's fun to watch and predict.

I'm not even counting this as a win in Crono's favor in their series. This is a joke.

Revenge for 2k3 shenanigans.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 10:40:22 AM | message detail
If we think that 4way charcter contest is unpredictable cuz of SFF and LFF and stuff, the 4way game contest will be a total crapshoot, just the way I like it. I dunno, I just prefer unpredictability over knowing exactly how every match will go by character/games exact strength!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:41:17 AM | message detail
All Crono had to look forward to in 2003 was getting devoured by Sephiroth anyways. Probably a lot worse than what happened to Mario, and Mario got flat out pasted.
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:42:34 AM | message detail
That poll has Cloud, Sephiroth and Snake in it.

Aye, but Mario and Samus finished last while Link finished first. Very polarized. I'm of the opinion that any upper midcarder could have taken advantage of this split. I'd take Zack here even. MMX was just not Nintendo enough to let Mario win last round.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/17/2008 10:42:36 AM | message detail
If we think that 4way charcter contest is unpredictable cuz of SFF and LFF and stuff, the 4way game contest will be a total crapshoot, just the way I like it. I dunno, I just prefer unpredictability over knowing exactly how every match will go by character/games exact strength!

It's been 4 years since the last games contest(perhaps 5 by the time the next one starts).

I mean, I doubt Bacon's competency at bracket making quite a bit, but if he can't make an unpredictable bracket in a 1v1 format then he should just quit, and forever.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 10:43:08 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #475
All Crono had to look forward to in 2003 was getting devoured by Sephiroth anyways. Probably a lot worse than what happened to Mario, and Mario got flat out pasted.



Coulda told us how Crono holds up against elite FF7 characters though, since iirc I don't think we would have ever had a Crono vs. Cloud/Sephy match till this years finals
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 10:53:57 AM | message detail
This talk of Crono being near Mario is silly, almost as silly as talking about the deboost after what happened yesterday. Crono's margin of victory is already smaller than Mewtwo's against Squall and likely to get smaller still; please tell me that no one would begin to consider Mewtwo over Squall 1v1? Triple LFF obviously induces very large percentage swings, and to disregard that effect is pretty foolish given the amount of evidence we've seen supporting it.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/17/2008 10:55:10 AM | message detail
And for the people saying four way is better, the entire point of a tournament like this is to determine the strength order of whoevers in it. Not to create random, unpredictable match results where the winner is determined by who else is in the match with them. If its too predictable then we need to do a different kind of contest, like a non game character contest.

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hailEC | Posted 11/17/2008 10:57:14 AM | message detail
This talk of Crono being near Mario is silly, almost as silly as talking about the deboost after what happened yesterday. Crono's margin of victory is already smaller than Mewtwo's against Squall and likely to get smaller still; please tell me that no one would begin to consider Mewtwo over Squall 1v1? Triple LFF obviously induces very large percentage swings, and to disregard that effect is pretty foolish given the amount of evidence we've seen supporting it.

Crono's not as far removed from this trio as Mewtwo was however. Mario still beats Crono pretty damn comfortably, but you can straight up compare these two matches.

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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 10:57:21 AM | message detail
This is a video game website. Video games and characters makes sense. CNet is getting their money by drawing gamers here, which the contests do. You think they actually care about making a good contest? Goose has proven otherwise already.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/17/2008 10:57:26 AM | message detail

From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 11/17/2008 1:55:10 PM | #474
And for the people saying four way is better, the entire point of a tournament like this is to determine the strength order of whoevers in it. Not to create random, unpredictable match results where the winner is determined by who else is in the match with them. If its too predictable then we need to do a different kind of contest, like a non game character contest.



Best post in ages.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/17/2008 10:57:29 AM | message detail
Crono's not at Mario level or anything like that, but I feel very comfortable saying that Crono is solidly above Sonic and Mega Man again. He's probably never going to reach Mario levels again, so this is about as much as the guy can hope for.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/17/2008 10:58:40 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX (#483)
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 11/17/2008 1:55:10 PM | #474
And for the people saying four way is better, the entire point of a tournament like this is to determine the strength order of whoevers in it. Not to create random, unpredictable match results where the winner is determined by who else is in the match with them. If its too predictable then we need to do a different kind of contest, like a non game character contest.



Best post in ages.


Agreed.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 11:03:40 AM | message detail
I guess I don't care abotu the straight up 1 vs 1 matche sto determin who is really the strongest because we all know who is. Link with Cloud second. At least this adds some new spice to the contests that was severly lacking in 2005 and 2006 for me, the 2 worst contests. Its no fun for me having the majority of round 1 not even worth checking cuz its obvious blow outs, and to know every single year who will win the later matches due to past contest strength. Like I only checked the results TWICE I think for that Mario/Samus match IIRC in 2005, because I just DIDNT CARE becuase it was over within seconds. At least with 4ways, theres alot more fun to be had and not only battles for first to keep up with.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/17/2008 11:03:53 AM | message detail
Crono's not as far removed from this trio as Mewtwo was however. Mario still beats Crono pretty damn comfortably, but you can straight up compare these two matches.

I can more or less agree with this, but consider that, based on what Squall did to Yoshi in round 1, Mewtwo certainly does worse than 40% on Squall, probably closer to 35%. But he got 58% in a triple LFF match - that's an absolutely enormous swing. And Mewtwo is from Nintendo's premier RPG series; that might matter when facing Cloud, though obviously not too much.

And while I'd be comfortable taking Crono over Mega Man and Sonic (especially the latter), I'd feel better about it if Vincent had looked sharper this contest, especially considering what a great first two rounds Auron and Squall had and how Vincent was relatively disappointing.
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Tohoya | Posted 11/17/2008 11:43:48 AM | message detail
IMHO, if you want the contests to remain unpredictable, this is what you do:

year 1: 1-on-1 characters
year 2: 1-on-1 games
year 3: 4-way characters
year 4: 4-way games

This way you've got 4 years inbetween contests of similar types, and it should be interesting to see which of the anomalies from 1-on-1 to 4-way are due to the format, or due to the two intervening years.
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hailEC | Posted 11/17/2008 11:48:06 AM | message detail
Or you could just alternate between characters and games. There's a reason no one's had a perfect bracket in a 1v1 characters or games contest... because they're not as predictable as all the whiners like to say they are. If anything the gimmicks have been. Villains and series were jokes, and that was the first time seeing either one. There's nothing wrong with the classic format.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 11:55:06 AM | message detail

From: hailEC | #489
Or you could just alternate between characters and games. There's a reason no one's had a perfect bracket in a 1v1 characters or games contest... because they're not as predictable as all the whiners like to say they are. If anything the gimmicks have been. Villains and series were jokes, and that was the first time seeing either one. There's nothing wrong with the classic format.



The classic format might not of been predictable early on, but with all we know now, its very predictable outside of new entrants.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 11:55:38 AM | message detail
I was honestly a bit surprised when I learned that there was any resistance to a standard, 64-entrant "Best Character Ever" contest. You're not using a gimmick format, but you're opening things up for Darth Vader, Spider-Man, Batman, Wolverine, and Bond. We should rally hard for this after we get our games contest.
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hailEC | Posted 11/17/2008 11:55:56 AM | message detail
oh. well then you should probably link me to your perfect bracket or all the contests that you've won.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
transience | Posted 11/17/2008 12:12:35 PM | message detail
this match ain't Crono vs. Mario. don't even compare it. you're better off saying Mario RPG vs. Chrono Trigger was Crono vs. Mario.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 12:18:02 PM | message detail
This may be the furthest Crono will ever drop during ASV... he's up against 3 Nintendo characters so I can't see him staying up very well in ASV
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/17/2008 12:18:51 PM | message detail

From: transience | #493
this match ain't Crono vs. Mario. don't even compare it. you're better off saying Mario RPG vs. Chrono Trigger was Crono vs. Mario.



I may be crazy and seeing things, but I believe I see Crono beating Mario. Am I wrong?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 12:23:35 PM | message detail
Yes. Wait to see how CTDS is received before even entertaining that upset.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/17/2008 12:24:35 PM | message detail
Heh, Link is taking 100% of this ASV.
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/17/2008 12:26:26 PM | message detail
LINK SMASH
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XIII_rocks | Posted 11/17/2008 12:26:57 PM | message detail
Crono is winning a match with Mario in the poll. It counts as a Crono win, even with the match-affecting SFF.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/17/2008 12:27:24 PM | message detail
Go Mario
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ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
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