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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 637

transience | Posted 11/16/2008 12:35:56 PM | message detail
what.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
Starving Writer | Posted 11/16/2008 12:45:49 PM | message detail
Since the other topic doesn't have "part" in the topic title, I officially declare this one to be the one, true, "Part 637."

Or something like that.
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Starving Writer
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/16/2008 12:49:29 PM | message detail
Since the other guy fails at typing, I'm tagging this one.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2008 12:49:48 PM | message detail
What Ulti said
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/16/2008 12:50:09 PM | message detail
oh I'm humping this one
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 12:51:06 PM | message detail
Tag.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Sprottle | Posted 11/16/2008 1:02:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
wavedash101 | Posted 11/16/2008 1:03:40 PM | message detail
PLAN B!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
KommunistKoala | Posted 11/16/2008 1:03:44 PM | message detail
sprott'lol'e
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sometimes when i play tetris and nobody is home i make male genitals out of the blocks and pleasure myself~Alex Shelley
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 1:04:52 PM | message detail
sprott'lol'e
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2008 1:05:30 PM | message detail
Hiiiiiiiiii!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Sprottle | Posted 11/16/2008 1:08:58 PM | message detail
Lets get all the silly comments out of the way, Sprotlol and Plan B nonsense come on lets have them. I'm screenshoting them all and will have a nice collage prepared for after when Sonic is declared the winner. I might even have a youtube video where it zooms in on Koala's username and destroys his reputation.
KommunistKoala | Posted 11/16/2008 1:09:39 PM | message detail
sweet sprtoleoglo'lol'e
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sometimes when i play tetris and nobody is home i make male genitals out of the blocks and pleasure myself~Alex Shelley
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2008 1:10:18 PM | message detail
Fun fact: Kirby is beating Sonic worse than Vincent beat Crono last year.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/16/2008 1:11:05 PM | message detail
see, at least when crono breaks the NN, he does it to the 10th strongest guy
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CB7 Score: 376/480
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 11/16/2008 1:15:39 PM | message detail
Kirby's also beating Sonic by twice the amount that Mega did in 05.

Oh Sonic and Mega are just so fun to laugh at
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Tai | Posted 11/16/2008 1:17:02 PM | message detail
Damnit, I wanted to say "KIRBY! KIRBY! KIRBY!" as the 500th post. >_<
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SSB Brawl Code: 0903-4850-3529
Boston Celtics: 8-2 Next: Saturday vs Milwaukee Bucks (8:30 PM)
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/16/2008 1:17:10 PM | message detail
http://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=256
http://fc06.deviantart.com/fs30/f/2008/078/3/2/Kirby_Sucks_by_Streaks_the_Hedgehog.png

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
voltch | Posted 11/16/2008 1:21:20 PM | message detail
I got Kirby's winning because of BANNER POWAH!
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
BDawg | Posted 11/16/2008 1:35:39 PM | message detail
Hmm so where does this match rate as far as making the board a dumber place to be? It seems right now the board is getting pretty darn stupid, even more than the usual "contest has lost all credibility" posts.
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Should I start running now?
Sprottle | Posted 11/16/2008 1:38:17 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Jill_Valentine_vs_Kirby_2002

So is Jill in the noble 9 now?

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Snake
Samus
Squall
Jill Valentine
Auron
Kirby

Seems right to me.
Gaddswell | Posted 11/16/2008 1:43:01 PM | message detail
Again:

Alucard > Kirby > N9
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
RPGGamer0 | Posted 11/16/2008 1:55:50 PM | message detail
It's Alucard's Plan after all.

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|PM|
http://img.imgcake.com/lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg
TestIcicles | Posted 11/16/2008 2:03:18 PM | message detail
just got back from a long ass weekend, way too tired to go back and see what the hell's been going on, but what the hell

dude that wouldve been eliminated 2nd round if not for a severe fanbase split is now beating sonic to get into the semi's. 4-ways are the dumbest thing ever confirmed

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mmm test icicles
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:08:20 PM | message detail
Of course.

This was Alucard's doing all along.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:25:35 PM | message detail

From: Sprottle | #021
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Jill_Valentine_vs_Kirby_2002

So is Jill in the noble 9 now?

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Snake
Samus
Squall
Jill Valentine
Auron
Kirby

Seems right to me.



Don't forget Big Boss, who destroyed Kirby in the first round.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:30:52 PM | message detail
Again, four tiers of the current N9

Clinkeroth
Elite
Old and Tired
Why the **** Are You Still Here?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
TestIcicles | Posted 11/16/2008 2:31:19 PM | message detail
so what are people attributing this result to? rSFF or just Sonic characters seriously blowing ass in this format?

If anyone really thinks Kirby > Sonic 1v1 let me kick you in the nuts RIGHT NOW.

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mmm test icicles
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 2:32:30 PM | message detail
I'll just say that Sonic characters really suck ass in this format.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MartrebnoR | Posted 11/16/2008 2:43:40 PM | message detail
So when is Sprottle going to start his 'plan B?' anyway? If he's going to be stuffing nearly 2,000 votes, he better start now.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 2:51:13 PM | message detail
Again, why does Tails even keep making it into these contests??? He's nothing but the purest of fodder. It's a wonder why they haven't kicked him to the curb entirely.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
paulg235 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:51:44 PM | message detail
Since the other guy fails at typing...

*RKO's Ulti*
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The Gamer In Me
greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:52:07 PM | message detail
If this contest was only 64 characters, I doubt he would have made it.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2008 2:52:17 PM | message detail
Heh, I forgot how amazing Jill was in 2002. Best run of the contest - better than Scorpion's.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 2:52:25 PM | message detail
*RKO's paulg235*
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:54:16 PM | message detail
What the stats suggest for the next match?Link>Crono>Mario>Samus?
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paulg235 | Posted 11/16/2008 2:55:22 PM | message detail
Crono > Samus > Link > Mario

.... Okay, it's really Link > Crono > Mario > Samus
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The Gamer In Me
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 3:00:18 PM | message detail
The one thing I can take from this match is lol Magus.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Gaddswell | Posted 11/16/2008 3:28:23 PM | message detail
I haven't seen any performance grades for a while... >_>
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/16/2008 3:33:48 PM | message detail
Looks like Kain will be higher in the stats than Magus
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
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MartrebnoR | Posted 11/16/2008 3:34:55 PM | message detail
Looks like everyone will be higher in the stats than Magus. lol
Gaddswell | Posted 11/16/2008 3:35:08 PM | message detail
Oh! There you are! I haven't seen you in a while.... >_<
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
Lightning Strikes | Posted 11/16/2008 3:38:56 PM | message detail
Cloud>Kirby.

Let's do this.

But seriously, Sonic has been awful this contest. If Kirby's my contest hero(and he is) Sonic's my contest zero. After the people who vote stuffed for Crono. You know who you are.

Also, Kirby would NOT have been eliminated in the second round if Big Boss and Raiden didn't split. He may have lost to Big Boss, but would NOT have lost to Master Chief.
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Mother 3. That is all.
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/16/2008 3:42:18 PM | message detail
Magus looks worse and worse by the year, while Crono has a shot at the finals.

Funny how that works.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 3:44:51 PM | message detail
Magus looks worse and worse by the year, while Crono has a shot at the finals.

Funny how that works.


But Crono's win does beg the question: Why is it that Magus never was able to pull of a win like that, yet Frog and Crono were?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2008 3:45:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, a 99.6% shot.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2008 3:45:53 PM | message detail

From: MartrebnoR | #041
Looks like everyone will be higher in the stats than Magus. lol



Well, Magus is guaranteed to be higher than Commander Shepard at least.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/16/2008 3:46:29 PM | message detail
And Nana.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2008 3:46:30 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #045
But Crono's win does beg the question: Why is it that Magus never was able to pull of a win like that, yet Frog and Crono were?



I think the boards going down that day may have had a lot to do with that.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
frisqo | Posted 11/16/2008 3:50:35 PM | message detail
If Crono makes it to the finals...

How much chance does Link>Snake have?
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