GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 635
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2008 9:31:02 AM | message detail |
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Cloud was able to beat Snake by a good amount when they faced off in
that five or six way match a few years ago. Link also beat Cloud with
Samus and Mario in the poll. Do those results somehow not apply here
anymore or what? --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| paulg235 | Posted 11/15/2008 9:34:23 AM | message detail |
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Snake just likes coming second in these four ways once he reaches the QF's and doing horribly once it comes to the final four. --- The Gamer In Me |
| hellfire104 | Posted 11/15/2008 9:37:08 AM | message detail |
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Link_vs_Cloud_vs_Snake_vs_Sephiroth_2006 I still love this one. I know that link is in there but he probably SFFs everybody else in there pretty evenly. --- Point Total/Rank: 365/446, 82%, 1st and 10th My Bracket Says: Cloud > Snake Prediction: Same |
| EternalxCourage | Posted 11/15/2008 9:39:30 AM | message detail |
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I can see Cloud getting screwed over next round by him and Sephiroth
both beating Snake. It still proves that Cloud would beat Link one on
one though. --- Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man. The one and only Curt. |
| EternalxCourage | Posted 11/15/2008 9:40:39 AM | message detail |
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Link doesn't SFF anyone in that poll, either. It's all Cloud, Snake and
Seph with the SFF. Which you can see that the Square/Sony vote destroys
nintendo. --- Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man. The one and only Curt. |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/15/2008 9:51:26 AM | message detail |
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The most important aspect of that match is that Cloud still pummels
Snake even with Sephiroth there. Why would anything be different now
unless Cloud got weaker? Sure Snake was in Brawl, but theres no way it
makes that much of a difference. Brawl never really helped many other
characters. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| acero47 | Posted 11/15/2008 9:52:39 AM | message detail |
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Link doesn't SFF anyone in that poll, either. It's all Cloud, Snake
and Seph with the SFF. Which you can see that the Square/Sony vote
destroys nintendo. I seriously doubt all of the Snake votes would go to Cloud. I think Link would probably get at least half of them, especially seeing as how MGS is more similar to LoZ than FF. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 9:56:42 AM | message detail |
| I'll say this one last time: a single 39% update
is very far from showing vote stuffing. There were numerous updates
yesterday that deviated from the preceding update just as much or more-
for example, Vincent had a 37.9% update around 6 AM, following a 25%
update and preceding a 29% update- was that stuffing too? No, of course
not, it's called random variation. Especially when you're dealing with
time periods like the dead zone and the final hour that get very low
vote totals, 5-minute updates will vary a lot. Yesterday, Crono got over 50% on Vincent from 10-11, so I think it's entirely reasonable to believe he would have gotten over 52-3% on Vincent during the last hour without any rallying. He actually got 56%- so he got maybe 150 or so extra votes. It's ridiculous to believe that 150 votes is so large a number that it cannot be rallied when we've seen Albion rally several times that (just look at the Hogger match: Hogger lost about 160 votes on Ramza and Laharl from 10 to 11 AM, and then gained 350 on Laharl and 270 on Ramza from 11 to 12). That's probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 rallied votes for Hogger in one hour- Albion probably got well in excess of 1000 votes for Hogger in total that day. It's obviously harder to rally for CT than for WoW, but it's also easier to rally 150 votes than 500, and there were probably lots of people rallying Crono yesterday while Albion was likely the only one rallying Hogger. Further, Crono's final hour, unlike the past 2 years, actually has looked really good this year- he went up 0.11% in the last hour in round 2, against L-Block, Ryu, and Amaterasu. You'd expect him to gain more than that yesterday simply from Samus and Pikachu being more day-oriented characters than those 3. He gained 0.19% last night. In 2005, Crono outright won the time period 11-3 AM against Mario, even while down 8000 votes, even while he had lost the first hour, so him beating Samus in the final hour shouldn't be too surprising. While it's possible that stuffing occured, I see no substantive reason to believe it here, or for Snake's final push against Sephiroth, or for Phoenix holding off Bomberman, or for L-Block holding off Snake, etc. We really cannot detect vote stuffing from looking at the udpates unless it is large in scale, moreso with 4-ways than in 1v1s since random variation between updates is relatively higher with lower vote intake for each character. There was substantial deviation many from last year's trends at the hourly level yesterday, and not just in the sense that Crono did way better with the day vote, but within time blocks too. Looking at individual updates and trying to discern stuffing from rallying and random variation is rather ridiculous- we can detect stuff like Starcraft cutting 1400 votes in 20 minutes, or Mario/Crono II getting 2-3000 votes in the final 2 hours over what it would normally get, but with what we can see (5 minute updates), we can't really detect non-obvious cheating, or show in any conclusive way that a particular somewhat questionable match had cheating or not. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:01:42 AM | message detail |
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I seriously doubt all of the Snake votes would go to Cloud. I think
Link would probably get at least half of them, especially seeing as how
MGS is more similar to LoZ than FF. We saw this in the Battle Royale actually- when Snake was eliminated, Cloud got about 55% of his votes. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus |
| charmander6000 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:07:11 AM | message detail |
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People like to call stuffing on every little blip that we see. People
like to see everything go systematically. The only update that Crono
looked fishy was the one he took the lead and he was already set to win
be then. Also who's to say that Vincent had no stuffing either? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 311/448 Today's Match: Cloud > Solid Snake |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/15/2008 10:07:58 AM | message detail |
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I can 100% guarantee there was vote-stuffing, actually. I bet I could
even give you a range of IPs, but since Bacon doesn't care, I won't
care either. Time for Crono to get the score on Mario to 3-2. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS2 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2008 10:33:30 AM | message detail |
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Link also beat Cloud with Samus and Mario in the poll. Do those results somehow not apply here anymore or what? So you must just like making up results then And from the looks of this topic overnight certain people are getting paranoid about Snake in two days. That sounds good to me! --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:34:52 AM | message detail |
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No, he's not making up results.....but he's leaving out the fact that Sephiroth and Snake were also in that poll. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:37:44 AM | message detail |
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Wow, a lot of people think Link > Crono is a lock. lol them --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/15/2008 10:45:44 AM | message detail |
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I'm going to assume you have Mario in the finals, Bio. And yeah, Crono
making it is about as big a lock as this format will allow. --- Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/15/2008 10:47:44 AM | message detail |
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Whatever gets the Mario/Crono thing to 3-2 is fine by me. And hey, we need to seriously look at making the Noble Nine into a Top Ten and throwing Vincent in there. If it's a winning streak (and L-Block is thrown out), it would be valid. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS2 |
| Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:48:19 AM | message detail |
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I don't get it why people act like this.It is an Internet contest in a
site about video-games.Is that important?No.Just vote for fun.It is not
like in real life everything goes smoothly right? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/15/2008 10:52:47 AM | message detail |
| Seriously though, Snake's probably going to end up
doing as well or better as he did on Cloud when Sephiroth was in the
match two years ago. Mewtwo likely hurts him more than he does Cloud...
though that's kind of irrelevant seeing that Sonic should be there next
round. Still, it *could* be postulated that Snake's true percentage on
Cloud is a touch higher than this. (and it will by me at least !!) Depending on how well Sephiroth does - will the FF7 fanbase rally to him, in anticipation of the rematch? I know MWC will! <.< - and if Sonic does his part to just roll over and die, we could have a real match on our hands. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/15/2008 10:55:02 AM | message detail |
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Yesterday's chart: Time | Samus | Vincent | Crono | Pikachu EBV | 30.23% | 22.77% | 26.36% | 20.63% | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 31.19% | 22.24% | 27.30% | 19.26% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 30.41% | 26.09% | 25.92% | 17.59% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 32.04% | 25.65% | 24.08% | 18.23% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 31.62% | 25.73% | 25.87% | 16.78% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 30.28% | 24.90% | 23.65% | 19.88% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 28.58% | 24.63% | 28.21% | 18.59% | (22:00-24:00) LOL Crono's second night vote Yesterday's stats: Samus Aran – 50.00% Crono – 45.02% Vincent Valentine – 44.96% Pikachu – 37.49% Second quarter stats later. Gotta go for now. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Temporarily Sidetracked |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 10:57:55 AM | message detail |
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More like Cloud is underperforming due to being the obvious favorite! Really though, the next match comes down to whether the FFVII fanbase decides to support Cloud or Sephiroth. If they are smart, they will choose Cloud because not only does he need it, but getting Cloud and Sephiroth to the finals is a terrible idea unless they want to see Link slaughter Cloud. So....how intelligent is the FFVII fanbase? --- Crono's quest to beat Link: Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/15/2008 11:02:46 AM | message detail |
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Come to think of it, this is probably the most legitimate Noble Nine
match we've had since Link/Cloud 2K6. I'm assuming Cube is a neutral
entity, and I bet Mewtwo is as well (more or less). The fact that Snake
will end up breaking 43% (quite easily, at that) under such legitimate
circumstances is beastly. Let's not forget that Cloud's last normal non-Link Noble Nine match was against a fierce looking Samus in 2004, and she only managed 41%. So yeah, unless Cloud decides to be a dick and double Sephiroth, I can easily see fireworks in the battle for first place. --- Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/15/2008 11:03:16 AM | message detail |
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I can guarantee Mario will beat Crono Monday. Guarantee. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/15/2008 11:04:50 AM | message detail |
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So....how intelligent is the FFVII fanbase? kh, hm, shall we uncork the champagne now or what --- Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| voltch | Posted 11/15/2008 11:11:23 AM | message detail |
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i didn't remember snake/sephiroth being that close,huh oh,i'm even more nervous about Cloud>Snake now. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/15/2008 11:32:02 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| hellfire104 | Posted 11/15/2008 11:59:40 AM | message detail |
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Somebody alluded to me being nervous about the Cloud v sephy v snake
match. For obvious reasons I'm nervous, but that battle royale match
and I'm sure a mountain of bracket voting are telling me that nobody
should come close to assuming that Snake > Cloud is the way it'll
be. Granted, I'm not certain of Cloud > Snake either. I think the trick is deciding how that match would have gone 2 years ago if we took out Link and put in Sonic. Where would links votes go and how many would sonic absorb. --- Point Total/Rank: 365/446, 82%, 1st and 10th My Bracket Says: Cloud > Snake Prediction: Same |
| frisqo | Posted 11/15/2008 12:58:10 PM | message detail |
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oh man, i knew my bracket was too cookie-cutter to give me a shot at winning a prize. Should've seen Crono>Mario coming with all this CTDS hype, lol --- Name: Flex FC: 4510 7199 0698 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/15/2008 1:01:13 PM | message detail |
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Dear God. It's like you people forgot that Zack was running on a full tank of gas in his last match. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| frisqo | Posted 11/15/2008 1:16:37 PM | message detail |
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I'm sure everyone can agree that Crono>Zack though. And Zack only lost by around 1900 votes. Really, the only way Mario wins tomorrow is if he SFF's Samus into the ground more than Link does. --- Name: Flex FC: 4510 7199 0698 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/15/2008 1:34:26 PM | message detail |
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I just don't buy that Crono is immune from being SFFd himself this match. Keep in mind, Link and Samus are the sole reasons he even struggled against Vincent. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| hellfire104 | Posted 11/15/2008 1:52:29 PM | message detail |
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lol, i need crono to lose in his next match. I'm not convinced he'll win, but we'll see. --- Point Total/Rank: 365/446, 82%, 1st and 10th My Bracket Says: Cloud > Snake Prediction: Same |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:04:09 PM | message detail |
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As someone who's hyped Zack as much as almost anyone, Crono and Vincent
are still a good deal above him. As for Crono/SNES overlap, it exists,
but the 3 Ninty characters overlap a lot more. Further, what overlap
they have with Crono isn't going to help them because Crono is very
very good (in the first tier along with Clinkeroth) at winning shared
fanbases. That's how he's as strong as he is with a much smaller
fanbase than any other Noble Niner. With other characters in the poll
it's different because overlap always hurts, but Crono will be the most
independent character on Monday. I've thought Crono could do really well if he were allowed to go directly against SNES Nintendo for a long time- now he has the opportunity, coupled with 3 way Nintendo SFF. I'm going to actually make a bold prediction that Crono finishes closer to Link than Mario. Also....I wouldn't completely count out Samus beating Mario for third. Pretty unlikely, but not impossible depending on which Link shows up. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: Link vs. Crono vs. Mario vs. Samus |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:05:03 PM | message detail |
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Okay, obviously I missed a LOt since yesterday morning...but can somebody cover the highlights real quick? --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
| paulg235 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:08:35 PM | message detail |
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Crono made the comeback needed to beat Vincent and Cloud's on fire. --- The Gamer In Me |
| edwardsdv | Posted 11/15/2008 2:09:54 PM | message detail |
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Link> Crono next round BELIEVE Also, Snake>Cloud |
| transience | Posted 11/15/2008 2:10:51 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3301&type=1&seconds=60&max=0 --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| Guess how many teens | Posted 11/15/2008 2:13:30 PM | message detail |
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Only 8% between Cloud and Snake...Anyone think there might be an upset with Sephi or Crono there?(Sephi semi Crono final) --- [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:17:59 PM | message detail |
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For whatever it's worth, remember that old SSBB-poll about who you
would like to see in it the most? Cloud barely beat Sonic and Crono
barely beat MC in it; I'm pretty sure that's the only poll they ever
shared... ...but that doesn't really mean anything. I think Solid can make it closer, but not beat Cloud there. Then again though, Solid very well COULD upset Cloud next round with Sephiroth there! --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:18:58 PM | message detail |
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Also, way to go Crono-fans, I guess. Then again though, rallying is
starting to really ruin the contests. This format only encourages it. =/ --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:21:37 PM | message detail |
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Rally really doesn't happen very often. I mean, you can make a case for
maybe 3 matches so far this year. It is a bit unfair, but I wouldn't go
as far as to say it's ruining them. --- CB7 Score: 344/448 http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/15/2008 2:26:30 PM | message detail |
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Aww yeah Snake train made of badass and tactical espionage action with a hint of believe picking up some passengers Hop aboard, next stop, the land of Snake > Cloud --- This is not my GameFOX sig... Therefore, it doesn't exist! |
| ZFS | Posted 11/15/2008 2:26:39 PM | message detail |
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Good show from Snake today. He didn't drop very much at all. Keeping it
within 10% should make next round pretty interesting. Match to see
there will be Snake/Cloud instead of Snake/Sephiroth. I'm going to actually make a bold prediction that Crono finishes closer to Link than Mario. Also....I wouldn't completely count out Samus beating Mario for third. Pretty unlikely, but not impossible depending on which Link shows up. I really doubt either one of these happens. Crono's an obvious favorite, but you can make a decent-but-stretched argument for Mario to advance there. Probably doesn't happen, but Crono's not going to be that far ahead of Mario when it's all over - and definitely not closer to Link. And expecting Samus to hold up against Link and Mario is about as wishful as Mario over Crono. --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:28:10 PM | message detail |
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It's not even the rallying itself so much -- I don't really care for
any of yesterday's characters and MM was expected to lose anyway to WCC
with Zero in there -- it's that it's nearly become the focus of the
contest. Albion has become as much of a focus as the contest itself in
the topic it shouldn't
be, whether he's all that responsible for it or not. People are
constantly seeking upsets too, and all the proof you need is how
L-Block was treated both last year and this year. It's not just the rallying whether they're for characters I like or not; I'm generally cool with both Phoenix rallies and Frog rallies (note I like Phoenix and dislike Frog). It's how the focus is largely about the rallies now. It's boring and this format largely instigates it. --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:30:29 PM | message detail |
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Only reason the focus is on Albion is because people in here respond
and get worked up over it. I've been saying since the contest started
to just ignore him, he doesn't make much of a difference, but people
still do it anyway. --- CB7 Score: 344/448 http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif |
| transience | Posted 11/15/2008 2:37:25 PM | message detail |
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the only reason people think Albion matters is because he brags about
it. it's obviously trolling but some people just haven't picked up on
it. if you want to see REAL rallying, look at yesterday's match. --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:38:15 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, yesterday was the only time it was really obvious. --- CB7 Score: 344/448 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:38:25 PM | message detail |
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I agree he doesn't make a difference. It doesn't change that he won't
shut up about it and others won't either -- I'm guilty of talking about
it too, though mainly just trying to pont out how unimportant he is. I'm trying not to block people anymore and I'm certainly not going to block others for talking to him, but man, it's making this topic a pain in the ass sometimes. I like this topic about as much as I do the contest itself. and when he's spamming it with self-glorifying crap, then others either beg him to stop or continue, then the results of the contest come into question because of all these related posts...it's losing its fun pretty quick all-around. --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/15/2008 2:39:41 PM | message detail |
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He's not going to go away, so you've really just got to train yourself to ignore it. Nothing much else you can do. --- CB7 Score: 344/448 http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg |
| transience | Posted 11/15/2008 2:40:16 PM | message detail |
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yeah, there's a bunch of crap in this topic lately. it's always been
that way though.. I remember 2006's last week being unbearable to the
point that I didn't even read it. you just have to know what to pay attention to and what not to! --- xyzzy "I hope you are this idiot only in the internet ^__^" -linkhatesganon |
| H__RR____H | Posted 11/15/2008 2:47:23 PM | message detail |
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True enough -- it's weird how the off-season can be more bearable than
exciting times in the middle of a contest. Whatever though, ranting's
over. So it looks like Midna LFF'd Mewtwo a little bit, though not too much; he's doing about 2% better this round with Solid being the only other "Nintendo"-representation (which I doubt is doing much to Mewtwo). Mewtwo goes from ~24% on Cloud to ~26%... ...and was I the only person arguing Cloud was hurting Mewtwo? Either way, I still think Cloud is hurting Mewtwo, though not as much as I did before. I figure Mewtwo would be good for another percent or two on Cloud indirectly, but nothing major. Good run for him though, no matter how much luck he had with the bracket-placement. Mewtwo VS Charizard, who ya got? --- BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now. www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285 |
