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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 632

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 10:50:44 AM | message detail
Huh. Didn't not expect Crono to still be leading when I woke up. Still doesn't look good, but at least there's that small glimmer oh hope.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 10:51:02 AM | message detail
didn't not

time to go back to sleep then
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/14/2008 10:52:41 AM | message detail
KEEP STALLIN CRONO
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The Straight Up G
The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/14/2008 10:54:02 AM | message detail
Dunno if this is a more impressive or unimpressive Crono performance compared to last year. He'll lose by less despite he and Vincent eating up more percentage (good), but the Nintendo powerhouse here has no reason to hurt him as badly as Link (bad). This format kinda ruined the party for guys like Vincent, Squall, and Auron, as Crono probably won't be legitimately (1v1) beatable by non-Noble Niners after CTDS. That limits the number of Noble Niners in jeopardy down to Mega Man and Sonic.

Are Vincent and Auron going to be in Dissidia?
---
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/14/2008 10:55:42 AM | message detail
LOL @ Ulti and Albion going at it

what a funny encounter
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The Straight Up G
The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 11/14/2008 10:57:07 AM | message detail
nope. at least they aren't announced.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
MichaelWClark | Posted 11/14/2008 10:59:15 AM | message detail
Albion, there are 100's of sites to rally at, get to it man.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2008 11:04:03 AM | message detail
Hey, I just call out BS when I see it.
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/14/2008 11:05:01 AM | message detail
If this is anything like 2007, this should be the final hotly contested hour. Last year, Vincent started rolling at 15:00 on the dot and never looked back.
---
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
paulg235 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:05:27 AM | message detail
Crono's still stalling. I'm seeing him finally caving in in half an hour.
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The Gamer In Me
voltch | Posted 11/14/2008 11:06:34 AM | message detail
for some really weird reason,whenever ulti posts here i keep thinking about Charles Dickens,
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/14/2008 11:06:50 AM | message detail
Dark horse of this match = Pikachu the L-Block killer.

He'll start gaining....uh....any minute now.

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319/416 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Samus > Vincent | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:08:11 AM | message detail
Let's try this again, now with my comments at the bottom...

Okay let's see if rallying does anything.

12:30-13:30
One hour before rallying stops.

Mega Man - 1893
WCC - 2236
Solid Snake - 2972
Zero - 1162
8263 Votes are cast.

This is the hour that WCC passed MM and built a lead for himself. Mega Man had about a 93 vote lead at the start of this hour and was losing by over 200 by the end.

13:30-14:30
The hour that rallying stops.

Mega Man - 1846
WCC - 1819
Solid Snake - 2888
Zero - 1138
7691 Votes are cast.

As you can see about there are about 600 less votes and it seems like WCC is the one that took the hardest hit look at the percent compare to last hour.

Mega Man - 97.52%
WCC - 81.35%
Solid Snake - 97.17%
Zero - 97.93%

While the other three have similar drops cube drops like a rock.

14:30-15:30
One hour after rallying stops.

Mega Man - 1637
WCC - 1736
Solid Snake - 2734
Zero - 1070
7177 Votes are cast.

Seems like we got a 500 vote drop compare to last hour and that is with rallying. Everyone seemed to drop in votes as well.

Mega Man - 88.69%
WCC - 95.44%
Solid Snake - 94.67%
Zero - 94.02%

We see that Mega Man is the one to take the hardest drop in this hour, but WCC didn't hold up any better than Snake and Zero.

Was there more people rallying for WCC when he was coming back? Take these numbers however you wish. IMO WCC was rallied, but there were many people who were rallying especially in close matches like these. Albion got lucky by doing his hour of absence right after WCC took the lead. Still by how close the match was and since Albion was probably rallying all day he probably was the cause for at least half or more of WCC's lead.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 295/416 Today's Match: Samus > Vincent
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 11:08:59 AM | message detail
. . . . . . . . 2007 | 2008 | Difference
1:00 | 56.58% | 55.10% | -1.47%
2:00 | 54.83% | 53.26% | -1.57%
3:00 | 52.08% | 52.67% | 0.59%
4:00 | 51.40% | 50.05% | -1.35%
5:00 | 43.78% | 46.02% | 2.24%
6:00 | 41.43% | 41.08% | -0.35%
7:00 | 43.06% | 45.70% | 2.64%
8:00 | 44.04% | 49.34% | 5.29%
9:00 | 47.66% | 49.67% | 2.00%
10:00 | 47.54% | 49.78% | 2.24%
11:00 | 49.90% | 51.18% | 1.28%
12:00 | 50.15% | 50.07% | -0.08%
13:00 | 49.07% | 49.39% | 0.32%
14:00 | 49.06% | 50.00% | 0.94%


Two bad hours then a mediocre one. The number for Crono to shoot for is 2% over last year. Maybe higher now with how he's failed that number the past four hours.

I made an excel chart to do things for me on this front. Changed some results slightly; I counted :58 as the next hour rather than :03.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2008 11:12:16 AM | message detail
Vincent only need to win the ASV 50.5-49.5 to comeback against Crono and win.

Obviously... that'll happen
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:13:35 AM | message detail
Yea I was hopeing for Crono to pull it off, but Vincent is just too close now not to win.
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2008 11:16:24 AM | message detail
Someone needs to go to votefortheworst and get them behind WCC.
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/14/2008 11:22:58 AM | message detail
Doubt it would make a difference. Against the second strongest guy in the field and a fan favorite (now turned absolute beast) like Snake, I don't even see Cube hitting 20%.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 11:27:01 AM | message detail
Maybe Vincent only needs to average 50.5 from ASV to the end, but he's going to fall a bit after 7PM. If Crono can hold like 48% of the vote between them from 3-7PM, he'd be in range to mount a comeback of his own.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2008 11:27:18 AM | message detail
20%?

Beast?

A big difference?!

A SURVEILLANCE CAMERA?
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS2
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2008 11:28:54 AM | message detail
Didn't Vincent pretty much win the ASV and the second night vote against Crono by practically the same amount?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 11:33:47 AM | message detail
Crono did about 2% better after 7pm than he did from 3-7pm.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
PiGuy96 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:35:37 AM | message detail
Please let those last two updates be an incredibly unlikely omen of the ASV...
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RPGuy on Windows (augh)
Janus5000 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:36:28 AM | message detail
Wow, the lead... hasn't moved at all since I last checked. Crono's screwed in half an hour.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:36:36 AM | message detail
Crono with the ASV?

Maybe we should wait until after 3pm.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 295/416 Today's Match: Samus > Vincent
Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/14/2008 11:37:01 AM | message detail
Hey Crono, you're supposed to lose with the asv, not make 20 vote cuts.
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Vote for change in '08. Vote for Samus Aran.
Yes we can!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2008 11:39:17 AM | message detail
He had 45.72% from 3-7. He had 47.11% from 7-12.

Ok, so Vincent needs 51-49 to shutout Crono. I think that's still pretty lenient(and if Vincent gets 52-48 Crono might as well be blown out. He can't make that up)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2008 11:39:53 AM | message detail
looks like I made it back before the fireworks

almost time, folks
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hmm
well then
Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/14/2008 11:40:43 AM | message detail
Okay, now you're going in the right direction.
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Vote for change in '08. Vote for Samus Aran.
Yes we can!
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 11:42:50 AM | message detail
He had 45.72% from 3-7. He had 47.11% from 7-12.

Ok, so Vincent needs 51-49 to shutout Crono. I think that's still pretty lenient(and if Vincent gets 52-48 Crono might as well be blown out. He can't make that up)


Actually he got 47.58% from 7-12. And if it goes 52-48 from 3-7PM, Crono would be behind less than 150 votes.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:44:43 AM | message detail
It's about to get interesting.
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:46:04 AM | message detail
Crono is bending, but he just won't break.

Also, Link > Mario time COME ON.
---
Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
Meg and Fiona are the scum of the field.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:46:09 AM | message detail
Crono's faltering already, so this isn't going to be pretty.

If Crono can somehow stem to bleeding to about 50 votes and hour, I'd say he can win this. But that's not going to happen.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/14/2008 11:48:51 AM | message detail
Vincent I think is going to do even better with the ASV than he did last year. This one's not going to be close, at all.
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
http://img.imgcake.com/ omghawttt13141.jpg
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/14/2008 11:49:54 AM | message detail
I'm expecting a 320-vote cut so that Vincent takes the lead at post #337
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Today's prediction: Samus 31.50% - Vincent 25.67% - Crono 25.27% - Pikachu 17.56%
Status: Awesome
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:50:35 AM | message detail
I don't think there's any reason for him to do better, Samus + Pikachu should be just as much of a burden as Link, but still, even matching last year is more than enough.

From 3:00pm 'till the end of the match, Vincent gained 1600 votes on Crono.

We'll know soon enough.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:50:45 AM | message detail
337
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:51:22 AM | message detail
Well Crono is still ahead by the 337 post.
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/14/2008 11:52:47 AM | message detail
Pikachu is starting to reverse his downward trend. Any minute now...
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:53:23 AM | message detail
Yes, any minute now Pikachu will eat all of Vincent's votes.

Let's do it Pikachu.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:53:53 AM | message detail
Hopefully Pikachu can keep Vincent down so this can stay interesting.
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
Master Moltar | Posted 11/14/2008 11:54:26 AM | message detail
lol tran

also I'm reallllly wondering why i switched from Link > Vincent to Link > Mario next round. Only way the latter has a chance of happening is if Crono advances...whoops me

Unless Zack = Vincent and Samus = MMX gogogogo
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hmm
well then
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/14/2008 11:54:37 AM | message detail
Not like I would mind, surprisingly. I need ratface to dominate this ASV for the sake of my Oracle prediction.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:55:18 AM | message detail
Should we bring back the Save_Us.Rat thing?
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"Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 11:55:41 AM | message detail
Samus will sacrifice her votes for Mario, where MMX wasn't quite so kind. Maybe?
---
DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
voltch | Posted 11/14/2008 11:56:11 AM | message detail
ratpower's comeback time!

so Link>Snake anyone?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 11:57:02 AM | message detail
Well, 3:00 is when Vincent really started kicking it off last year, looks like.

Next update.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2008 11:58:58 AM | message detail
I'm going to take a shower and when I come back Crono will have already pulled a miracle improvement with the ASV
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/14/2008 11:59:54 AM | message detail
Man you Crono fans are almost as delusional as I am with Snake > Cloud

almost
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:00:06 PM | message detail
Well this is done. Good job Crono, you held the lead for more than half the match this time.
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
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