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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 632

linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:22:35 AM | message detail
Shaggy, however, did.

So, YOU admit YOU were wrong right? ^___^
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
Starion | Posted 11/14/2008 1:23:01 AM | message detail
That's the same pattern with Samus and Vincent's previous match. She'll recover once morning hits. Don't know if the same will happen with Crono though.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 1:23:25 AM | message detail
^____________________^
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CB7 Score: 312/416
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 1:23:38 AM | message detail
Vincent isn't Nintendo. Crono's best hope now is to limit Vincent's gains from now until 8 AM, at which point he may still have a small lead. Then he needs to gain with the DSV, and try to hold of Vincent as best he can with the ASV. If this is within a few hundred in the final hour don't put it past him, as unclutch as he has always been.

And now the Masamune! Forthwith I shall slay Vincent, and restore honor!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:24:36 AM | message detail
^____^
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^,,__,,,^
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 1:26:48 AM | message detail
Well at least Vincent stopped his +20 gains for now >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
MichaelWClark | Posted 11/14/2008 1:27:07 AM | message detail

linkhatesganon (#101)
Shaggy, however, did.

So, YOU admit YOU were wrong right? ^___^



Not yet, but if I am wrong (looking very likely) I will of course make a topic admitting such. Adamant to the end, but gracious in defeat, just like I am with sports.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 1:27:12 AM | message detail
Crono wants to stall Vincent, eh? Hopefully he'll still be in the lead when I wake up.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 1:27:31 AM | message detail
if I do some of this **** will it convince someone to account bet with me?

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^>__________>>>>>>>>>>>>____<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<_________________________^
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~Believe~
lol I am cracking up at your sig - Shaggy
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:30:05 AM | message detail
No, people don't want you to lose your account, especially not by such a foolish bet.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:30:05 AM | message detail
I hope that's the fastest to 500 ever topic ^___^


And no Shaggy ¬_¬
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:30:05 AM | message detail
Shaggy is definitely a dude
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 1:30:37 AM | message detail
who is a guy
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a sandwich would be nice - gotspork
Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/14/2008 1:33:34 AM | message detail
Yet another Vinny cut. Will he get a flawless hour, where he wins every update?
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Vote for change in '08. Vote for Samus Aran.
Yes we can!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 1:33:38 AM | message detail
What is a man?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 1:37:05 AM | message detail
Wooo Crono cut Samus! That's another way to advance from this battle.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 1:37:43 AM | message detail
that and a pair of testicles
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~Believe~
lol I am cracking up at your sig - Shaggy
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:40:54 AM | message detail
Crono's doing fine. Looking at his percentage, his percentage had dropped over double what it has now, and he's working from a higher percentage this time, meaning you'd expect him to have the higher percentage drop now. He's definitely not looking at an utter collapse at 4am like last year.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
DSiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:41:29 AM | message detail
I am actually getting a bit of confidence in Crono, but my logic is probably flawed.

As of 4am last year, Crono was seeing greater drops in his % compared to this year and he had less total % last year.

It just feels like Vincent is being more affected by Samus' gains and drops, but Crono isn't so much, unlike last year. So when Samus starts doing well during the day, I somewhat expect Crono to be able to at least have a fighting chance.

Once again, I'm probably not making sense, so feel free to correct me.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:42:24 AM | message detail
Of course you're not making sense, you're echoing my sentiments.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
DSiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:42:34 AM | message detail
Darn you Lopen, being faster you bum.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:43:14 AM | message detail
It's not the percentage what matters, but the votes
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 1:44:02 AM | message detail

From: linkhatesganon | #122
It's not the percentage what matters, but the votes



right.

bet?
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a sandwich would be nice - gotspork
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:44:31 AM | message detail
So I guess Pikachu continues his heroics by taking all the percentage hits for Crono. What a little trooper.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:46:43 AM | message detail
It's not the percentage what matters, but the votes

Yeah, but what I'm saying is that Samus is being hurt a lot in this time too which allows for Crono to not be hurt so bad. Crono isn't really collapsing, Vincent is just doing really well. I want to see what it's like when he calms down.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:47:46 AM | message detail
It's not the percentage what matters, but the votes

That's what the people who think they know something about contests always say to newbies to make themselves feel mighty... but when gauging trends and predicting the course of the match, percentages are what you need to look at, not votes.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 1:48:05 AM | message detail
I also think Crono is holding up really good, since this seems to be Vincent's best time at least against Samus. But see my sig.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Sonic_Factor | Posted 11/14/2008 1:48:41 AM | message detail
Ya, crono seems to have that going for him..Samus and Pikachu are collapsing right now; Link didn't collapse at all. Still, this might turn out to be bad for crono if pikachu gets a good boost.. we know samus will skyrocket eventually.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:51:36 AM | message detail
When Samus and Pikachu boost, at least Vincent will suffer along with Crono.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:51:59 AM | message detail
what pikachu what
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:53:25 AM | message detail
Pikachu stalls Crono

Comeback sequence initiated
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 1:54:41 AM | message detail
But it's the typical of gaining percentage =/= gaining votes. You can be gaining a lot of percentage and having a minor effect in number of votes
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:56:13 AM | message detail
Crono's second worst update only lost him...17 votes?
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 1:56:55 AM | message detail
Someone is holding a magnet to these trends...
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
vash_131 | Posted 11/14/2008 1:58:20 AM | message detail
what's up with the last update lol
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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 1:58:23 AM | message detail
But it's the typical of gaining percentage =/= gaining votes. You can be gaining a lot of percentage and having a minor effect in number of votes

Yes, Crono is losing votes, you can read the "lead 2" column in the updater good job.

What you need to realize is that it's almost all Vincent this time instead of half and half. That means when Vincent snaps back to his less beastly time he's likely going to go back to losing updates to Crono, even if it was by less than he was losing them to start the match.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
linkhatesganon | Posted 11/14/2008 2:00:42 AM | message detail
I wasn't talking about this match. All I meant was that you can get a crazy ammount of percentage (well maybe not crazy), and gaining "only" something like 50 votes
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Please, don't insult me - Vlado about British blood
SSBB FC code - 3007-9626-4713
vash_131 | Posted 11/14/2008 2:01:43 AM | message detail
crono cuts samus and vincent ^^
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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 2:01:48 AM | message detail
What is this, I don't even....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 2:01:58 AM | message detail
All I meant was that you can get a crazy ammount of percentage (well maybe not crazy), and gaining "only" something like 50 votes

We know this. We are talking about something different.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 2:02:21 AM | message detail
If you're not talking about this match you can spare me the aforementioned "brag to newbies" lecture about percentage != votes then.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 2:02:51 AM | message detail
I officially won't sleep tonight XD
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 2:03:46 AM | message detail
no one is snatching and I am going to bed

go Crono H!
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a sandwich would be nice - gotspork
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 2:06:31 AM | message detail
Crono with 46.02% this hour. Last update saved him from being as bad as last year's 4-5.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 2:07:27 AM | message detail
And here, since you're set on number of votes:

Crono lost ~130 votes 4am-5am this year
Last year he lost ~190.

Good enough evidence that he's holding up a bit better?
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 11/14/2008 2:09:50 AM | message detail
There were over 2000 more votes last year at this time though.. so >_>
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
Gaddswell | Posted 11/14/2008 2:10:45 AM | message detail
Not bad Crono! Last year, the guy lost 0.4% to Vincent, while this time, he's only dipped 0.2% despite the higher percentages that they have.

Of course, he still lost a 100 votes here that last hour, and since he has a smaller lead this time, that can't be too good.
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 2:10:46 AM | message detail
Holding up "a bit better" won't remotely save him though. He lost by 1702 votes last time. He could do an entire percentage point better relative to Vincent than last time and still lose.
---
DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
WiiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 2:11:26 AM | message detail
Good enough evidence that he's holding up a bit better?

Not exactly. Vincent actually cut the lead by 15% ish compared to 14% ish last year (i think). I'm just hoping Crono does better in parts he did worse with last year.
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I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ...
... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE
Xuxon | Posted 11/14/2008 2:12:57 AM | message detail
There were over 2000 more votes last year at this time though.. so >_>

There certainly weren't over 2000 more Vincent/Crono votes. In fact, there were about 700 less.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/24, Marcello defeated (12 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
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