GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 632
| transience | Posted 11/13/2008 11:37:34 PM | message detail |
|
contest spoilers -- Vincent takes the lead on post #337 ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 11:38:38 PM | message detail |
|
http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o95/Tallarus/cornholio.jpg --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 11:38:50 PM | message detail |
|
keep dreamin' --- CB7 Score: 312/416 http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg |
| WalrusJump | Posted 11/13/2008 11:39:59 PM | message detail |
|
BOLD PREDIX: Crono wins --- Some mistakes are good. You were not. - Alec http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/8787/1174485118442ge3.jpg |
| transience | Posted 11/13/2008 11:40:28 PM | message detail |
|
I'll make another one if need be! --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 11:40:36 PM | message detail |
|
Hmm....I wonder how long it will take to reach post 337 on this topic. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 11:41:27 PM | message detail |
|
Never! --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/13/2008 11:46:37 PM | message detail |
|
What's frustrating is next year should be much easier to pick, now that
everyone else knows how strong X & Zack are, and the joke
characters have waned, after L's crazy run in 2007. Course... I guess
the WCC could still have a few tricks in its... Cube? But I highly
doubt it'll sneak by Snake & Cloud, hell WCC & MewTwo might be
lucky to break 10% against those guys. Hmm, realistically, I'll say Cloud 39%, Snake 36%, WCC 15%, MewTwo 10% --- Detroit Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup Champions! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 11:50:28 PM | message detail |
|
Next year ought to be unpredictable. It's hard to figure out character
strengths from 4-ways, and we don't really know how strong Zack or X
are yet. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/13/2008 11:51:32 PM | message detail |
|
Oh, are they bringing back 1 vs 1 next year? That'd be nice. --- Detroit Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup Champions! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 11:53:02 PM | message detail |
|
Well, hopefully Bacon will.....though I don't really like the odds on
getting that traditional, 64-character, 1v1, no gimmick, no character
removal, contest I want. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/14/2008 12:02:01 AM | message detail |
|
You could add "spice" to the tournament in different ways, such as a
losers-bracket, or simply be seeding the characters in such a way that
8 members of the noble 9 met in the first round. Creating some new
match-ups, even if the end result was the same. Still be more fun to
track that way. --- Detroit Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup Champions! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 12:04:42 AM | message detail |
|
Crono Crono Crono ^_^ --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:30:14 AM | message detail |
|
Crono needs to keep up the fight. --- "Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 12:30:58 AM | message detail |
|
And now Samus lead on Crono is bigger than his lead on Vincent, not a good sign >_< --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:31:27 AM | message detail |
|
Uh, it's not there yet. Maybe next update though. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Lopen | Posted 11/14/2008 12:32:06 AM | message detail |
|
I like Crono alot more this time. He's got about the same lead he did
last year, but he did it in a much more gradual manner. Believe last
year he went up around 150 after 5 minutes or something really stupid. ... I'd still keep an eye out for Pikachu... 2000 votes he can do this come on Pika! --- Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante. Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:32:57 AM | message detail |
|
Yeah, now Samus has a bigger lead. Crono hit his peak lead 10 minutes
from now last year. The next hour is make-or-break for him. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Shaggysaurus | Posted 11/14/2008 12:33:49 AM | message detail |
|
liar! --- ~Believe~ lol I am cracking up at your sig - Shaggy |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:39:16 AM | message detail |
|
Hm, get the sense that people are throwing in the towel on Crono, and I
can't say that I agree. Sure he died right around this time last year
and got killed the rest of the day, but overall, vote trends haven't
been as severe this year as they were in '07. In every match so far
Crono has held up much better past the first 4 hours than he did last
year, Frog didn't totally die during the day either, and Magus...
alright, so he collapsed, but that was SSB and joke vote fueled, can't
get down on CT too much for it. I still give him a fighting chance. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 12:41:50 AM | message detail |
|
Oh noes, Vinny even cut Samus in that update. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| transience | Posted 11/14/2008 12:42:11 AM | message detail |
|
oh Crono, you tease. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:42:30 AM | message detail |
|
That was a bad update for Crono. Can't handle too many more of those. --- "Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:42:39 AM | message detail |
|
Vincent just made his first serious cut- 25 votes, and that sets Crono
back to where he was at the beginning of this hour. Come on different
trends. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| ZFS | Posted 11/14/2008 12:42:52 AM | message detail |
|
Vincent killing those past couple of updates. This was around the time he started wrecking Crono last year, too. --- "You don't have to worry about me." |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/14/2008 12:44:35 AM | message detail |
|
I'm so glad Vincent is losin --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/14/2008 12:44:55 AM | message detail |
|
But all of Crono's matches this year have been on weekends so yeah, you
won't notice much of any major trends compared to the weekday. His very first match was a weekday, and in that match he lost 2.5% from his peak despite some fodderish competition --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:46:34 AM | message detail |
|
If this were the weekend, I'd feel very good about Crono right now. As
it is, a Vincent victory looks very likely.....the floodgates may open
soon. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:48:31 AM | message detail |
|
We've got to turn Friday Nov 14th into a national holiday- Crono's life depends on it! Someone get Obama on the phone! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Shaggysaurus | Posted 11/14/2008 12:48:49 AM | message detail |
|
go CHrono go! --- ~Believe~ lol I am cracking up at your sig - Shaggy |
| paulg235 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:50:16 AM | message detail |
|
It won't be long now until Vincent takes 2nd. --- The Gamer In Me |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:52:22 AM | message detail |
|
Alright, Crono, I give up. You can start going up again now. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| DSiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 12:53:05 AM | message detail |
|
*Sigh* Looks like my small run on the leaderboard shall end when Vincent takes the lead. Grr. --- I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ... ... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE |
| tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:53:09 AM | message detail |
|
Crono needs to stop this if he wants to stay in 2nd. --- "Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:53:46 AM | message detail |
|
Hmm...Samus is falling off quickly too, while Vincent soaks up percentage from both of them. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:54:10 AM | message detail |
|
Looks like it'll end a bit closer than last year, but Vincen't still gonna win. I'd say by about 1000 or so. --- CB7 Score: 312/416 http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg |
| DSiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 12:55:29 AM | message detail |
|
These updates are coming way too slowly... This match is like an energy drink. --- I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ... ... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/14/2008 12:55:40 AM | message detail |
|
Seems like a good time to reiterate how bad the CT cast is: C(H)RONO: ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... MARLE: THE STEREOTYPICAL WEAK PRINCESS WHO DOESN'T WANT TO BE A PRINCESS. NO ONE HAS THOUGHT OF THIS BEFORE OR SINCE LUCCA: THE BRAINY KID WHO MAY ALSO BE A LESBIAN WHO MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A DEAD PARENT, NO ONE HAS THOUGHT OF THIS BEFORE OR SINCE ROBO: THE REJECT ROBOT WITH NO HUMAN PERSONALITY, BUT WANTS TO BE HUMAN. NO ONE HAS THOUGHT OF THIS BEFORE OR SINCE AYLA: GRUNT GRUNT ME CAVEWOMAN ME HAVE NO PART IN STORYLINE BUT TO LOOK HOT GRUNT GRUNT GRUNT WOOF FROG: I'TH SITETH IN MY HOLETH ALL DAYETH, BUT CHERETH YE OLDE ENGRISH AND MAKE YOU DO ALL MINE WORK FOR ME WHILE I STARE AT THE ENTOMB OF LORD CYRUS AND PLEASURE MYSELF MAGUS: THE GOTHIC ANTI-HERO THAT ALL THE 13 YEAR OLDS WANT TO BE LIKE Good times. --- TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS |
| WoW_Skills | Posted 11/14/2008 12:56:08 AM | message detail |
|
It's over.. there is zero hope for crono.. 1. He has a smaller lead then last year 2. Hes losing consecutive updates an hour earlier then last year 3. the updates losses are gettingbigger 4. There is no more "good" time of the day for Crono after the first night vote.. the day hurts him bad, and the afternoon KILLS him horribly. 5. Link took some votes last year, but this year samus/pikachu take more of those nintendo voters(yes nintendo fans vote for crono too) 6. Vincent looks stronger then last year 7. He will lose by 2k+ votes |
| tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:56:19 AM | message detail |
|
Yea, I don't see how anyone can call this match boring. --- "Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado |
| DSiRage | Posted 11/14/2008 12:56:32 AM | message detail |
|
Good update. --- I'm DS, with more functionality than ever ... ... RAAAAAAAAAAAAGE |
| Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 12:56:53 AM | message detail |
|
Chrono wins this (over Vincent) for sure who wants to account bet on it? --- a sandwich would be nice - gotspork |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:57:08 AM | message detail |
|
Now that's what I like to see Crono! Still looking awful, but if you
can avoid falling off 8% this next hour like last time, we might have
ourselves a match. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 11/14/2008 12:57:56 AM | message detail |
|
And Ulti just had the most fail in GameFAQs history good show. It is nothing like that. --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:58:25 AM | message detail |
|
ulti did you just lose to a boss in chrono trigger --- CB7 Score: 312/416 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg |
| WoW_Skills | Posted 11/14/2008 12:58:29 AM | message detail |
| if i had more karma id take it shaggy =D.. ill take a sig bet! |
| tee316 | Posted 11/14/2008 12:58:42 AM | message detail |
|
Crono is still holding out. It was getting a little scary there though. --- "Mewtwo is a major joke."- Vlado |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/14/2008 12:58:45 AM | message detail |
|
Seems like a good time to reiterate how bad the CT cast is: This comes from the guy who likes Kingdom Heart's character. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| Shaggy_Heru | Posted 11/14/2008 12:59:18 AM | message detail |
|
From: WoW_Skills | #046 I don't even know who the **** you are and no, no sig bets, I want someone to loose an account here --- a sandwich would be nice - gotspork |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 11/14/2008 12:59:27 AM | message detail |
|
Zylo the wolf (#048) No reason to put down KH either. --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
