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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 631

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:13:17 PM | message detail

yo's right crono's screwed
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CB7 Score: 312/416
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:13:51 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | Posted: 11/14/2008 1:12:33 AM | #295
he and Vincent are eating up a lot more percentage this time around.

That's actually the best thing in Vincent's favor.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/13/2008 10:13:56 PM | message detail

Crono has not shown epic collapse trends this year at all,unlike last year

Crono won the day vote against Pikachu.a pokemon.

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:13:58 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #296
And while they can still choose to vote for MM/Snake/Zero when they get to the poll, they're much more likely to stick with the Cube.

I don't believe this. Rallying needs to be MASSIVE (L-Block) for it to matter much. But maybe I'm wrong, who knows.

WCC only won by 300 votes. Rallying by one person can do 300 votes, easily. My topics do get 10k hits for Hogger and WCC.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2008 10:14:20 PM | message detail

The night vote cometh. Crono and Vincent should rise to heaven now (until Crono runs into EUROPE at least).

I'll still be pretty surprised if he pulls this one off. Those dead zone hours were just too brutal last year.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:14:58 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #300
Harrich, I don't know exactly what to make of this rallying stuff, but just so you know, I think he was saying this guy's "study" found 30 votes per update, not per hour, for the Cube. That would be 360 votes per hour.

He specifically used an example of 30 votes x 24 hours = 720 votes earlier and didn't shoot down the 2.5 votes per update average I mentioned earlier, so...until he shows me otherwise, I'm rolling with that.

I'm not trying to say my rallying is anywhere near as effective for Crono as those. In fact, it isn't. Not by a long shot.. I'm not gonna be pulling in an extra 30 votes for Crono an update like I could for Cube.

I see you said update instead of hour here, but I think that was a typo. Care to clarify?

Ask Kamikaze Potato for the stats next time you see him, he's the one who did the hour study.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:15:53 PM | message detail

Vincent should probably still be the favorite, but the encouraging thing for Crono is that he's actually a full percent higher than at the 5 minute mark right now, whereas last year he was a full 3% lower by this point.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2008 10:16:57 PM | message detail

Crono has not shown epic collapse trends this year at all,unlike last year

Yeah, but his matches have been really, really weird. Apart from his first round match against Amaterasu and the two fodders, this is the first time we've seen him in anything "normal" this year.
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:16:58 PM | message detail

. But if you make a topic on a popular board saying "Vote for Weighted Companion Cube at Gamefaqs!", you are capturing the attention of WCC fans. Not Mega Man fans, not Snake fans, not Zero fans...Cube fans. And while they can still choose to vote for MM/Snake/Zero when they get to the poll, they're much more likely to stick with the Cube.

Hmmm, excellent point, I hadn't thought of that.

I think picking the site to rally at is a much bigger factor (obviously you want one that should be favorable to your character just based on allegiances, or maybe demographics if you stretch it), but this is probably a factor as well. I was more with Ulti's line of thinking on this, but you're very likely correct here that the "topic title selection/filter" thing is a significant factor.
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MichaelWClark | Posted 11/13/2008 10:17:14 PM | message detail

I hate it as much as the next person, but I spent alot of that night on this topic, and I can say without a shadow of a doubt, Albion killed Megaman. Even SFFd he would have barely beat the Cube normally, but those 300-400 votes he got were the death of the Super Fighting Robot.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:17:15 PM | message detail

Crono won't die as much during the dead hours and morning today, believe me. Plus, he'll keep on padding that lead over night. I'll see to it.
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yoshi7cw3 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:18:00 PM | message detail

Yeah Crono hasn't been too terrible during the day this year but his last two matches were on weekends... dunno how much of a factor that is.

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:18:47 PM | message detail

From: MichaelWClark | #310
I hate it as much as the next person, but I spent alot of that night on this topic, and I can say without a shadow of a doubt, Albion killed Megaman. Even SFFd he would have barely beat the Cube normally, but those 300-400 votes he got were the death of the Super Fighting Robot.

I even stopped rallying the final 2 hours to give Mega Man a chance to come back for an exciting finish, and he gained like almost 250 votes on Cube.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2008 10:19:12 PM | message detail

Crono won the day vote against Pikachu.a pokemon.

A pokemon whose early hours were inflated by a clearly artificial anti-L vote. To be a bit counter-intuitive - look at the votes, not the trends. How close was Pikachu getting to Crono during the day? And how close do you think he would've gotten at night in a more "normal" match?

The logical reasoning bears out the same conclusion - a Crono daytime collapse. He's gotten away by getting put against competition with HORRENDOUS day votes other than Pikachu. But I think Magus is a bigger harbinger than people are willing to admit.

Given where he is in this match, I don't think Crono is safe. I don't think he CAN be safe.
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Mario vs Crono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:19:20 PM | message detail

There is one fact about that match which can't be denied. There is not one single way that Mario won a 24 hour period, which is how long all matches are.

There was no such rule back then. Technically even now there's no such rule (see daylight savings). Today matches are almost all exactly 24 hours, but the closing time varied back in 2003.
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2005: Mario | 55739 | 53.85% | Crono | 47762 | 46.15% | lead of 7977 |
2004: Crono | 51430 | 53.24% | Mario | 45165 | 46.76% | lead of 6265 |

Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:19:21 PM | message detail

red sox 777 (#307)
Vincent should probably still be the favorite, but the encouraging thing for Crono is that he's actually a full percent higher than at the 5 minute mark right now, whereas last year he was a full 3% lower by this point.

In addition to this, Vincent's percentage this time around is actually lower than what he had at the 5 minute mark, unlike last year where he was up a full percent from the freeze.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:19:30 PM | message detail

Getting topic hits and proving those people all voted how you asked aren't close to the same thing. Everyone with common sense knows you're full of BS anyway, but still.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:19:48 PM | message detail

Oh, and we're now about 1600 votes behind Link/Crono/Vincent/Zero, which negates to a good deal the fact that Crono and Vincent both have higher percentages than last year. Vincent is still doing better percentagewise on Crono than last year though.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:20:23 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #317
Getting topic hits and proving those people all voted how you asked aren't close to the same thing. Everyone with common sense knows you're full of BS anyway, but still.

So you really think Hogger won without any rallying effects?
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:20:27 PM | message detail

Mega Man would've beaten Cube without rallying, no question.

The only question is, what is only one guy's rallying? Or were there a couple other rallyers as well who weren't vocal about it?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:20:44 PM | message detail

All true contest fans should want Samus in third place, btw. Hey Albion, get on that.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:04 PM | message detail

!!!!!

Very bad, Crono.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

HaRRicH | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:05 PM | message detail

I even stopped rallying the final 2 hours to give Mega Man a chance to come back for an exciting finish, and he gained like almost 250 votes on Cube.

I'm pretty sure the final two hours have been most MM-characters' best time in many matches. Also, if you were doing it for the excitement, you would have done it earlier in the match instead of letting WCC get an established lead. You were just out to prove an obsessive and controlling point.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:06 PM | message detail

VINCENT CUT

It begins!
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Iubaris | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:08 PM | message detail

Vincent's comeback starts now!
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WalrusJump | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:10 PM | message detail

and now we see Crono collapse

gj, it was fun while it lasted
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:10 PM | message detail

:(
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CB7 Score: 312/416
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:21:18 PM | message detail

Uhh... Crono, don't die yet
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:22:18 PM | message detail

As a Crono fan (even bigger FF7 fan than Chrono Trigger fan, but rooting for Crono here), I'm pretty encouraged so far, despite Vincent just cutting.

I think Crono's day trends this year won't be quite as awful as last year, which is a big factor since that's when most votes come.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2008 10:22:25 PM | message detail

Ouch, Vincent mauled that. He was a stone's throw from cutting Samus, too.

I want to cheer for Crono (he's my Crew and Oracle pick, after all), but some of you guys are making it difficult!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:23:25 PM | message detail

God, why does every single "lol I rally" tool make it so obvious they're full of crap? Stupid "haha I win" crap after a good update, and stupid "oh I wasn't doing it there" after every bad one. At least Smurf took the joke and made it funny, christ.

On a much happier note, explain who Hogger is to someone that's considering getting into WoW <_<;;
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MichaelWClark | Posted 11/13/2008 10:23:41 PM | message detail

UltimaterializerX (#321)
All true contest fans should want Samus in third place, btw. Hey Albion, get on that.

Yeah, cause a Link, Vincent/Crono, Cloud, Seph/Snake match would not be one sided for Link at all.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2008 10:23:51 PM | message detail

Samus is looking like crap here.

lol @ samus > mario clowns
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:08 PM | message detail

I'm thinking that was just a one time thing. Crono will get back to big gains this next update.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:17 PM | message detail

What is this Mario would be losing to Crono right now!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

WalrusJump | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:34 PM | message detail

Link/Jade/Luke/Tanner

that'd be the best match ever
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:41 PM | message detail

UltimaterializerX (#331)
On a much happier note, explain who Hogger is to someone that's considering getting into WoW <_<;;

Is this saying what I think it is...? >_>
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:49 PM | message detail

On a much happier note, explain who Hogger is to someone that's considering getting into WoW <_<;;

He's a random level 11 monster in the human starting zone
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:24:54 PM | message detail

explain who Hogger is to someone that's considering getting into WoW <_<;;

wut
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CB7 Score: 312/416
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tee316 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:25:04 PM | message detail

I'm still pulling for Crono.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:25:34 PM | message detail

From: WalrusJump | #336
Link/Jade/Luke/Tanner

that'd be the best match ever

85% for Link here
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MichaelWClark | Posted 11/13/2008 10:25:41 PM | message detail

WalrusJump (#336)
Link/Jade/Luke/Tanner

that'd be the best match ever

Would Link have a higher % than the Legend of Zelda had on Adventure?
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:26:34 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 1:24:08 AM | #331
I'm thinking that was just a one time thing. Crono will get back to big gains this next update.

....k

Okay, now explain to me the Captain Placeholder thing, and how he manages to get snubbed in place of Hogger. Placeholder is at least funny.
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TurnTurnTurn your brain in. ~*ST*~
Now Playing: Mother 3, Castlevania: OoE, MGS

WalrusJump | Posted 11/13/2008 10:26:38 PM | message detail

oh god ulti

you're becoming one of "them"

or should I say "us" since I quit my 70 mage a couple months ago

and gogo Crono, because I have a very real chance at winning money if Crono doesn't blow his lead
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Some mistakes are good. You were not. - Alec
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:28:18 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #343
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 1:24:08 AM | #331
I'm thinking that was just a one time thing. Crono will get back to big gains this next update.

....k

Okay, now explain to me the Captain Placeholder thing, and how he manages to get snubbed in place of Hogger. Placeholder is at least funny.

He was a dude who teleported people when boats were broken in WoW in the early days, who hasn't been in Wow since 2006.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

paraboxx | Posted 11/13/2008 10:29:20 PM | message detail

On another note, I'm sure this isn't the fastest stats topic ever, but it's got to be up there. This thing is less than two hours old.

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:30:14 PM | message detail

I remember some match (Tommy V/Kefka I think?) had like 5 in one day
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:31:25 PM | message detail

At least the Square vote is starting to begin in earnest. Vincent+Crono will be eating away at Nintendo all night long.

Just realized that Samus will possibly drop under 30% overnight, that would be a strange sight to see.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:31:49 PM | message detail

I wonder how far Pikachu will fall.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png

red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:32:45 PM | message detail

Something that was really strange about last year's match was how well Link did in the deep night- when Nintendo usually dies. Not sure really what to make of that, but any strangeness increases the probability that today's trends won't follow last year, which is good for Crono.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu

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