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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 631

creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 9:56:15 PM | message detail
Mario's first win over Crono was legit, Mario's win over Cloud was unfair, yet legal and awesome, Mario's second win over Crono was all kinds of wrong. Mario didn't win a single 24-hour time period.

Mario>Cloud wasn't awesome (though I wasn't actually following the contest yet), but otherwise I agree. Mario/Crono I sucked for Crono, but was a normal win for Mario. Mario/Crono II however was utter, indefensible BS in so many different ways - which is why it's known as the shadiest result ever in these contests.

And Crono's doing terrific right now as the rat collapses. Sweet.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 9:56:46 PM | message detail
I think I'm starting to BELIEVE!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/13/2008 9:56:52 PM | message detail
What people ignore about Mario/Crono 2 is that the poll started 20 minutes early.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 9:56:56 PM | message detail
what a bad update
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 9:57:02 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #252
I think I'm starting to BELIEVE!



You didn't believe EARLIER

fake crono fan
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/13/2008 9:57:29 PM | message detail
Come on. My guarantees are never wrong guys!
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ZFS | Posted 11/13/2008 9:57:46 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 9:57:51 PM | message detail
If I believe earlier, Crono would be collapsing by now.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 9:58:07 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 12:53:46 AM | #238
Did he prove his rallying was effective with raw stats? Do you see how the exact time I get up, character start big comebacks? (WCC and Hogger).

Hey guys I predict Samus has a good chance of winning this match n_n
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 9:58:41 PM | message detail
stop believing
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/13/2008 9:58:49 PM | message detail
What people ignore about Mario/Crono 2 is that the poll started 20 minutes early.

doesn't change anything. its still completely unfair that every other match only lasted 24 hours.at worst you could say Mario won just by random luck.

what Ceej should have done,was end the match 20 minutes early,but wait the 20 minutes to start the next
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 9:58:56 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #259
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 12:53:46 AM | #238
Did he prove his rallying was effective with raw stats? Do you see how the exact time I get up, character start big comebacks? (WCC and Hogger).

Hey guys I predict Samus has a good chance of winning this match n_n



Hogger was just dying and not really doing much then right when I woke up, he gained 600 votes and took over the lead from Laharl in 90 minutes. Check the stats for the match if you don't believe me.
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MichaelWClark | Posted 11/13/2008 9:59:04 PM | message detail

red sox 777 (#240)
And Crono led after 24 hours, fact. The match should have ended, also fact.

You're talking about Mario/Crono 2. The only evidence against any wrongdoing by Mario in the first match is the belief, which is not all that substantiated, as much as we like to say it, that CJayC is a Mario fanboy.




You know there is a hint of truth to all heavy rumors right? If like, the whole site believes you are a fanboy, and all 4 of the most controversial matches involved Nintendo characters shadily beating Sonic and Square characters, you have to believe there is something there.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 9:59:27 PM | message detail
As someone with Mario > Crono in 2003, Crono beat him fair and square that year. After 24 hours, Crono was winning with ease.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/13/2008 9:59:36 PM | message detail
Man I was looking at a nine vote gain for Crono and I was like "man what a bad update what are they cheering"

then I realized I was looking at SAMUS' lead

I guess my point here is "lol Samus"
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 9:59:44 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#262)

From: UltimaterializerX | #259
From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 12:53:46 AM | #238
Did he prove his rallying was effective with raw stats? Do you see how the exact time I get up, character start big comebacks? (WCC and Hogger).

Hey guys I predict Samus has a good chance of winning this match n_n



Hogger was just dying and not really doing much then right when I woke up, he gained 600 votes and took over the lead from Laharl in 90 minutes. Check the stats for the match if you don't believe me.



You should've rallied for Laharl instead! =(
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:00:18 PM | message detail
Mario was up at 24:00, but he wasn't up at 23:45- and the match began at 23:40 the previous day. Even if you knock off the first 15 minutes, and allow the 23:45 to 24:00, allowing by far the largest gain in any update by either character all day (obvious stuffing), Crono still wins. Mario didn't win any 24-hour segments.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:00:21 PM | message detail
Hey guys Link started doing well during after school vote, CLEARLY there was vote-stuffing I mean god it's so obvious
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:01:15 PM | message detail
And here's the Vincent stall, one update late!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:01:54 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #268
Hey guys Link started doing well during after school vote, CLEARLY there was vote-stuffing I mean god it's so obvious



WCC came back and took the lead within like 2 hours after losing updates for a couple hours when I started to rally. Theres enough evidence that my rallying is effective to try to look smart by refusing to believe it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/13/2008 10:02:35 PM | message detail
Did he prove his rallying was effective with raw stats? Do you see how the exact time I get up, character start big comebacks? (WCC and Hogger).

Your main site has threatened to ban you if you come again, so now your WCC-example is useless...and Hogger was never fair to compare since your then-source for rallying was WoW-favorable and large as opposed to probably anywhere else you're going.

Show new effective stats.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:03:01 PM | message detail
Ugh ulti is messing me up with his arguing and I forgot to bump my topic. Damn you Ulti. This was your strategy wasn't it? >.<
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ZFS | Posted 11/13/2008 10:03:17 PM | message detail
Mario was up at 24:00, but he wasn't up at 23:45- and the match began at 23:40 the previous day.

Ha. Is that what people complain about with the 24 hour thing? Pretty dumb.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:03:42 PM | message detail
Oh and Albion didn't rally for Crono in that one update there, because he didn't feel like it. Ditto for last year's match, Crono's 39 losses against Mario and the JFK assassination. He killed JFK and is part of the Cubans that set it all up, you know.

You can't disprove it, so of course it's all true. It would be too obvious.

Did I mention the word "gullible" does not appear in any dictionary?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:04:01 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #271
Did he prove his rallying was effective with raw stats? Do you see how the exact time I get up, character start big comebacks? (WCC and Hogger).

Your main site has threatened to ban you if you come again, so now your WCC-example is useless...and Hogger was never fair to compare since your then-source for rallying was WoW-favorable and large as opposed to probably anywhere else you're going.

Show new effective stats.



I'm not trying to say my rallying is anywhere near as effective for Crono as those. In fact, it isn't. Not by a long shot.. I'm not gonna be pulling in an extra 30 votes for Crono an update like I could for Cube.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:04:30 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 11/14/2008 1:03:01 AM | #271
Ugh ulti is messing me up with his arguing and I forgot to bump my topic. Damn you Ulti. This was your strategy wasn't it? >.<



So predictable.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:05:42 PM | message detail
1 hour mark!

2007: 149, 79, 74, 51, 37, 39, 65, 13, 49, 59, 1, 47
2008: 52, 52, 27, 67, 34, 37, 72, 8, 41, 62, 74, 7

Total gains after the 15-minute mark:

2007: 361
2008: 402

Total lead:

2007: 663
2008: 533

Crono's percentage of Crono/Vincent votes:

2007: 56.57%
2008: 55.11%

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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:06:18 PM | message detail
WoW aside, rallying hardly ever does anything. Anyone can get more people to a poll, but they'll never unquestionably listen to whoever asks them and will instead vote for their own choice. It's common sense.
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:06:33 PM | message detail
Harrich, I don't know exactly what to make of this rallying stuff, but just so you know, I think he was saying this guy's "study" found 30 votes per update, not per hour, for the Cube. That would be 360 votes per hour.

Also I think it was fairly clear that Hogger won by rallying, by only a few individuals, maybe even just one. If any other results were affected, I don't know.
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Mario vs Crono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:06:41 PM | message detail
And Mario was definitely up at 12:00. I'm sure somebody has those updates saved from back then. The whole 'comeback' is pretty overexaggerated, though it's clear it wasn't entirely 'legit.'

24:00 Mario | 66266 | 50.03% | Crono | 66174 | 49.97% | lead of 92 | ( up 243 )

its still completely unfair that every other match only lasted 24 hours.at worst you could say Mario won just by random luck.

Almost none of the matches lasted exactly 24 hours back then.
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2005: Mario | 55739 | 53.85% | Crono | 47762 | 46.15% | lead of 7977 |
2004: Crono | 51430 | 53.24% | Mario | 45165 | 46.76% | lead of 6265 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:06:51 PM | message detail
Pikachu is really dying now. Why didn't he die last round after the power hour? >_>
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:06:56 PM | message detail
Ha. Is that what people complain about with the 24 hour thing? Pretty dumb.

Pretty much every match in 2003 started early....23:45-50 was the typical start time.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MichaelWClark | Posted 11/13/2008 10:07:14 PM | message detail

ZFS (#273)
Mario was up at 24:00, but he wasn't up at 23:45- and the match began at 23:40 the previous day.

Ha. Is that what people complain about with the 24 hour thing? Pretty dumb.




It's not dumb. There is one fact about that match which can't be denied. There is not one single way that Mario won a 24 hour period, which is how long all matches are. Is it at all a shock that the Nintendo fanboy let the match go longer?
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:08:18 PM | message detail
Your main site has threatened to ban you if you come again, so now your WCC-example is useless...and Hogger was never fair to compare since your then-source for rallying was WoW-favorable and large as opposed to probably anywhere else you're going.

I posted before I saw this new post from you.

Yeah, if you're talking about future matches rather than past matches, his stuff means almost nothing.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:08:25 PM | message detail
So how big of a lead does Crono need
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:08:58 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #284
Your main site has threatened to ban you if you come again, so now your WCC-example is useless...and Hogger was never fair to compare since your then-source for rallying was WoW-favorable and large as opposed to probably anywhere else you're going.

I posted before I saw this new post from you.

Yeah, if you're talking about future matches rather than past matches, his stuff means almost nothing.



No, I'm defending the old matches. I admit I can't do much now (especially for PC centric characters, not that theres many left anywhos)
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:09:34 PM | message detail

From: creativename | Posted: 11/14/2008 1:08:18 AM | #282
Your main site has threatened to ban you if you come again, so now your WCC-example is useless...and Hogger was never fair to compare since your then-source for rallying was WoW-favorable and large as opposed to probably anywhere else you're going.

I posted before I saw this new post from you.

Yeah, if you're talking about future matches rather than past matches, his stuff means almost nothing.



...durr?

Everyone wants their 15 minutes.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/13/2008 10:09:43 PM | message detail
around 2000 i'd start feeling safe
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:10:25 PM | message detail
Reposting last year's trends here:

1:00 | 56.57%
2:00 | 54.83%
3:00 | 52.08%
4:00 | 51.40%
5:00 | 43.78%
6:00 | 41.43%
7:00 | 43.06%
8:00 | 44.04%
9:00 | 47.66%
10:00 | 47.54%
11:00 | 49.90%
12:00 | 50.15%
13:00 | 49.07%
14:00 | 49.06%
15:00 | 49.34%
16:00 | 45.50%
17:00 | 46.14%
18:00 | 45.59%
19:00 | 45.65%
20:00 | 47.75%
21:00 | 47.02%
22:00 | 48.52%
23:00 | 45.49%
24:00 | 46.77%

As for rallying, it's pretty clear that Albion got Hogger and Cube victories they otherwise would not have won.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
RockMFR 5 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:10:35 PM | message detail
CUT!
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 10:10:43 PM | message detail
ohh, a Crono CUT
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:10:44 PM | message detail
On a total side note, I'm near the end of my MGS replay. Snake is *such* an idiot in this game. Answering every statement by rewording it to a question is so annoying.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:10:58 PM | message detail
hey cut on samus
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paraboxx | Posted 11/13/2008 10:11:26 PM | message detail
WoW aside, rallying hardly ever does anything. Anyone can get more people to a poll, but they'll never unquestionably listen to whoever asks them and will instead vote for their own choice. It's common sense.

I was (semi-)waiting for this argument, because I believed it myself until the Cube match.

It's entirely true that once someone gets to the poll, they'll vote for whoever they want. But if you make a topic on a popular board saying "Vote for Weighted Companion Cube at Gamefaqs!", you are capturing the attention of WCC fans. Not Mega Man fans, not Snake fans, not Zero fans...Cube fans. And while they can still choose to vote for MM/Snake/Zero when they get to the poll, they're much more likely to stick with the Cube.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 10:11:40 PM | message detail
Phew I started panicking thinking Vincent had cut Crono. Great to see Crono cutting Samus!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
This it it! Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/13/2008 10:12:27 PM | message detail
And while they can still choose to vote for MM/Snake/Zero when they get to the poll, they're much more likely to stick with the Cube.

I don't believe this. Rallying needs to be MASSIVE (L-Block) for it to matter much. But maybe I'm wrong, who knows.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2008 10:12:33 PM | message detail
I gotta say, unless Crono can counter his traditional collapse, things are looking good for Vincent. Crono isn't too far behind his pure "vote lead" pace last year (140 votes behind), but he and Vincent are eating up a lot more percentage this time around. He really should be up more than this to inspire any realistic confidence.
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creativename | Posted 11/13/2008 10:12:53 PM | message detail
Are...are people still trying to defend Mario's win in 2003? Daaaamn.

It's almost like Mario fans are more bitter about him winning but getting his rep ruined than Crono fans are about him losing o_O
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/13/2008 10:12:54 PM | message detail
Sigh, you know a guys day vote is bad when you're worrying a 5% lead might not be safe =\
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/13/2008 10:13:08 PM | message detail
Harrich, I don't know exactly what to make of this rallying stuff, but just so you know, I think he was saying this guy's "study" found 30 votes per update, not per hour, for the Cube. That would be 360 votes per hour.

He specifically used an example of 30 votes x 24 hours = 720 votes earlier and didn't shoot down the 2.5 votes per update average I mentioned earlier, so...until he shows me otherwise, I'm rolling with that.


I'm not trying to say my rallying is anywhere near as effective for Crono as those. In fact, it isn't. Not by a long shot.. I'm not gonna be pulling in an extra 30 votes for Crono an update like I could for Cube.

I see you said update instead of hour here, but I think that was a typo. Care to clarify?
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Remember these games!
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