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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 630

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 4:54:12 PM | message detail
I'm wondering how I'm going to adjust this first quarter of the bracket. Zack's going to mess everything up big time, and Mario and MMX getting SFF'd isn't helping.

Should I adjust MMX based off of the last two performances on Mario or this one? Should I adjust Mario based off of his performance against Link last year (though he's probably weaker this year a bit)?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 4:54:49 PM | message detail
And Squall is the main character in all of Square's FF crossover endeavors for good reason!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 4:55:22 PM | message detail
Predictions for tomorrow:

Samus > Crono > Vincent >>> Pikachu
Crono is ahead of Samus at 4 AM.
Pikachu leads Vincent at the freeze.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/13/2008 4:55:29 PM | message detail
Because there's been an FF7 oversaturation already and Squall is already Cloud-lite so might as well use him?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 4:56:25 PM | message detail
Because he's the hero of destiny (and the best character Square has! They're basically endorsing that fact here!)!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/13/2008 4:56:58 PM | message detail
Man i can't believe this, Zack is killing X and isn't far behind Mario. I thought Zack wasn't a near-elite yet hes starting to look like a possible Noble-Nine breaker.......
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
TestIcicles | Posted 11/13/2008 4:57:21 PM | message detail
get off my internet
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mmm test icicles
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 4:57:22 PM | message detail
Should I adjust MMX based off of the last two performances on Mario or this one? Should I adjust Mario based off of his performance against Link last year (though he's probably weaker this year a bit)?

I'd say keep Mario and MMX based on today's match, and adjust Zack according to last round.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/13/2008 4:57:53 PM | message detail
That's what they tell him

Then they make fun of him behind his back

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 4:59:22 PM | message detail
Hey Zack just cut 21 votes!.......That's still behind quota.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/13/2008 4:59:25 PM | message detail
i love when characters make huge random cuts out of no where
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:00:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm definitely adjusting Zack based off of last round. Funny thing is that it could still beat Mega Man X's performance this round.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:00:34 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Kullstrom | Posted 11/13/2008 5:04:12 PM | message detail
I don't see why he wouldn't beat X directly.
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Look right through me, Look right through me.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/13/2008 5:05:26 PM | message detail
lol smorf
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CB7 Score: 280/384
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:05:52 PM | message detail
Mario's doing about 2.5% worse than he was last year (He's got a little more than 35% on Link right now). Either way, these stats are going to look terrible, so I don't know that it really matters.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/13/2008 5:07:25 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | #415
lol smorf



Smurf is here? Who is he?
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BDawg | Posted 11/13/2008 5:07:58 PM | message detail
If Dissidia is all that does that mean we have to put up with a deluge of nominations a la Smash flood of 2008? Obviously most of 'em have made it but here comes Onion Kid & Bartz train woo woo. And more villians up in this joint if they're playable (I guess?).
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Should I start running now?
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:08:25 PM | message detail
Ultimecia could win that Female Villains Contest with the Dissidia Boost!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/13/2008 5:09:31 PM | message detail

From: BDawg | #418
If Dissidia is all that does that mean we have to put up with a deluge of nominations a la Smash flood of 2008? Obviously most of 'em have made it but here comes Onion Kid & Bartz train woo woo. And more villians up in this joint if they're playable (I guess?).



And Seifer won't even be able to boost from it as a villain to get noms

ugh
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:26:58 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I've done some preliminary stats for this first quarter of the bracket. Suffice it to say they're whacked out.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2008 5:28:53 PM | message detail
uhh what about holding Duke Nukem constant

oh god is this what we're reduced to
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:31:08 PM | message detail
Well, Mario's division is more of a problem than anything else because of all of the SFF/LFF.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:39:38 PM | message detail
Heh, Mario is going to beat X by more this round than their first two matches combined.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
SpeeDDemon13431 | Posted 11/13/2008 5:45:38 PM | message detail
Haha yeah

wow
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/13/2008 5:57:41 PM | message detail
Well, here comes the MMX Final Three Hour Bonanza!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:17:47 PM | message detail
Friendly Reminder

Don't be one of the guys to post a comment like THIS five minutes into tonight's match!


XxSoulxX: Gotta ask... Why was so many people so convinced in Vincent beating Crono anyway?

Karma Hunter: Wow, can't see this one being ANYTHING but over. Noble Nine wins again.

Master Moltar: Link rising to heaven, Vincent... eh, ova

The n00b Avenger: Ok, Link kicking ass, Vincent screwed. Next match



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red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:20:20 PM | message detail
We said the same things at the beginning of Crono/Sonic....looks like we didn't learn. Except for Mac Arrowny, that is, who was insisting pretty much by himself that first hour that Vincent still had a chance.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/13/2008 6:21:37 PM | message detail
How dare you quote me out of context, I had a post 2 minutes later stating the opposite you know >_>
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
TestIcicles | Posted 11/13/2008 6:22:35 PM | message detail
lrn2context
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mmm test icicles
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2008 6:23:20 PM | message detail
I obviously meant it was over for Crono because Vincent kept it close enough!

I never doubted Vincent. I knew he would upset Crono from Day 1!!!
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paulg235 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:24:16 PM | message detail
Link rising to heaven, Zack... eh, ova :P
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trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2008 6:29:53 PM | message detail
I fought for giving Vincent a chance last time, and I was the only one to take Crono in the Crew.

but yeah Crono's gonna need a hugeass lead for me to even think about calling it.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
Ngamer64 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:32:01 PM | message detail
If anyone would like to re-read our reaction to the start of Vince/Crono 1, it starts with the first page of this topic:

http://www.thengamer.com/stats/Pt501-550/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt530/

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trannyscience | Posted 11/13/2008 6:42:12 PM | message detail
transience | Posted 10/23/2007 11:31:34 PM | message detail
I am going to take every one of you that called this match and kick you in the balls

aww yeah
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
Master Moltar | Posted 11/13/2008 6:46:07 PM | message detail
this reminds me

need to ready the jesus camp gif once Vincent takes the lead and never looks back woo
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 6:46:51 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-58-6.jpg

XD
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/13/2008 6:52:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-58-2.jpg

I know everyone is nutting over the top-hat...but does nobody else notice Samus with a mustache or Pikachu with a pocket-watch? Crono seems a bit fat, too, though I don't know if that was intentional for fitting him with this western-theme...

...regardless, there are more reasons than just a top-hat to go wild!


I can't believe that got through.....
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 6:54:33 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-58-2.jpg

No MONOCLE?
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ZFS | Posted 11/13/2008 6:54:47 PM | message detail
need to ready the jesus camp gif once Vincent takes the lead and never looks back woo

haha yess

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"You don't have to worry about me."
red sox 777 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:55:14 PM | message detail
Here are Crono and Vincent's trends from last year:

Crono by the Hour vs. Vincent:

1:00 | 56.57%
2:00 | 54.83%
3:00 | 52.08%
4:00 | 51.40%
5:00 | 43.78%
6:00 | 41.43%
7:00 | 43.06%
8:00 | 44.04%
9:00 | 47.66%
10:00 | 47.54%
11:00 | 49.90%
12:00 | 50.15%
13:00 | 49.07%
14:00 | 49.06%
15:00 | 49.34%
16:00 | 45.50%
17:00 | 46.14%
18:00 | 45.59%
19:00 | 45.65%
20:00 | 47.75%
21:00 | 47.02%
22:00 | 48.52%
23:00 | 45.49%
24:00 | 46.77%

Vincent's final percentage on Crono: 51.42%

Crono wants to be over 58% on Vincent at the end of the power hour. If he's at 60% at that time, I'll feel fairly safe.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/13/2008 6:56:53 PM | message detail
From: Gaddswell
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-58-2.jpg

No MONOCLE?


Look at Crono.

Squint hard.
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ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 6:57:53 PM | message detail
Actually... is the monocle on Crono? >_>
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 6:58:29 PM | message detail
Whoops. I got beaten to it. <_<
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BDawg | Posted 11/13/2008 7:25:11 PM | message detail
As someone who doesn't take a sneak peak at the pics I am both horrified and intrigued by this discussion.
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Should I start running now?
MartrebnoR | Posted 11/13/2008 7:26:34 PM | message detail
Top Hat Vincent vs Smiling Squall 1v1, who you got?
Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 7:27:19 PM | message detail
It should have been Top Hat Turk Vincent!
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TestIcicles | Posted 11/13/2008 7:43:58 PM | message detail
oh man just figured out that im going to one of my buddies school to partake in some shroomage this weekend. can't believe I'm gonna miss this match. At least I'll get to see Samus dominating in the wee hours of the morning. And then I'll miss lame Cloud > Snake action. Oh well.

You better all do your damndest to make sure Crono finishes in 2nd or there will be hell to pay.

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mmm test icicles
charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2008 8:12:53 PM | message detail
Match LVIII: Samus Aran vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Crono vs. Pikachu

Last Round:

Samus Aran – 34.84%
Vincent Valentine – 30.38%
Gordon Freeman – 17.82%
Ganondorf – 16.96%

Samus decided that she wanted to SFF Ganondorf this round and while she had no problems against Vincent Ganondorf was left hanging out to dry and finished fourth against Freeman. Funny thing is he hasn’t technically won a match with the exception against Phoenix Wright. Samus had no problems winning that match and is looking to be the huge favourite for this one.

Crono – 31.16%
Pikachu – 27.00%
L-Block – 24.40%
Alucard – 17.43%

You know Pikachu received a lot of hate by using LFF to reach round 4 last year, now this year the he has had a Nintendo opponent in every single match and yet here he is for the second year in a row. A huge anti-L-Block rally may be the reason he’s here, but I don’t care. Crono was looking good until his performance against Pikachu, though for his sake it was because of the rally.

Analysis:

First of all I like to express my joy that Vincent/Crono is still relevant. Sure we thought it would be Ryu who was final member of this quartet, but who cares. Pikachu looks really out of place among these contest giants. Hopefully he can put up a respectable performance and not be destroyed. The three giants will be exchanging punches with Crono and Vincent having their third rematch with each other.

Despite having another Nintendo character in the poll Samus should take first in the match. Even with Ganondorf Samus was never in danger in losing to Vincent and Pokemon tends to have less overlap with other Nintendo series. Sure there will be overlap and it will defiantly be much more than Vincent and Crono, but if Ganondorf couldn’t do it with Vincent being unaffected I doubt that Pikachu will.

Speaking of Pikachu as much as he surprised me at beating L-Block he won’t be doing anything here. First of all any rallying that he received last round won’t be here in this match and even if Pikachu could potentially do something Samus will be holding him back. Still against Luigi last year Pikachu was able to hold well against strong competition, but tomorrow’s competition are much stronger than last year’s competition.

The real match is between Crono and Vincent. Last year Vincent was able to defeat Crono by a slim margin though some people say that Link and Zero would overlap more with Crono than Vincent, well looking at Samus and Pikachu I would have to say for the second time Crono is at a disadvantage. Vincent is the odd character and over round 3 and even today’s match the odd character has always looked good.
charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2008 8:13:05 PM | message detail
The only thing that is stopping me from just giving Vincent the match is the performances of both Crono and Vincent this contest. Besides against Pikachu Crono has looked a lot better compare to last year while Vincent has stayed the same and you could probably argue that he looks worse compare to last year. Still having Samus who had a prominent game in the SNES and Pikachu, an RPG character whose game would appeal to CT fans won’t be helpful.

A lot of people seem to think that Vincent and Crono have a fanbase overlap though IMO the extent of that is probably small. Old and New Square never really had much of an overlap though with CTDS coming out soon and many of the old FFs out on GBA or DS I think the two fanbases will finally be bridged together. The extent would probably be much less than what Nintendo characters are use to see as. As of this match I don’t think Old and New Square have much of an overlap, next year however could be different.

While Samus and Pikachu have their fate decided anything could happen between Vincent and Crono. I see them having the exact same patterns as they did last round and whoever the winner is I’m expecting it to be very similar to the score from last year as well. I’m going with Vincent and I’m hoping that the odd ball factor will give him the win regardless if he’s stronger or weaker one on one.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus > Vincent

charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus – 31.53%, Vincent – 27.42%, Crono – 26.37%, Pikachu – 14.68%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 263/384 Today's Match: Link > Mario
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