GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 630
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:22:02 PM | message detail |
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Link has this. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:26:05 PM | message detail |
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HAIL BLACK HAIRED CLOUD --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:38:17 PM | message detail |
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I can't get into this match. too much overlap. ...I guess I should get used to it --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:43:49 PM | message detail |
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The difference between Cloud and Zack is the hair. From this I deduce that Cloud's Hair is stronger than half the field. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/12/2008 10:44:26 PM | message detail |
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Stupid 4-ways... --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| Master Moltar | Posted 11/12/2008 10:45:50 PM | message detail |
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X back in the lead! oh who am i kidding i don't get a **** either --- hmm well then |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:46:14 PM | message detail |
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X LEADS --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:47:00 PM | message detail |
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I think I might care if this weren't just a fight for third that Zack has no business being close in anyway. A fight for second Zack has no business being close in anyway now that might be fun. --- Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante. Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby. |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:47:15 PM | message detail |
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From this I deduce that Cloud's Hair is stronger than half the field. Yeah, as long as it is named "Cloud's Hair" in the poll choice... --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:47:56 PM | message detail |
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What would be stronger? Clouds Hair vs. Tifas Boobs --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:48:02 PM | message detail |
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Cloud's Hair and ? Block sounds like a fun match --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:48:07 PM | message detail |
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"Cloud's Hair" probably beats Link. Cloud + joke factor = win --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:48:20 PM | message detail |
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Link has this. ...as in the contest! But what ho - there's a Cloud through LFF potential on the horizon... I can't get into this match. too much overlap. ...I guess I should get used to it 1v1 is superior indeed. Yet this contest, one of my least favorite so far, is my best in terms of Oracle performace. Ironic. (also I've never been in the bracket leaderboard this late so long I think, I'm #26 now and have been on the board for a while - will fall off in a couple days since I have Sephiroth>Chief. And I spent very little time on my bracket this year, maybe half an hour total or so) Too bad we might have to wait *2* years before another character contest. --- Save_Us.RAT BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:49:08 PM | message detail |
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Uh this is a fight for second between Zack and Mario. I think I like Mario by a little right now, but it's not over yet. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:49:57 PM | message detail |
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From: red sox 777 | #014 X is in it as well at this point, he's in second.. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:51:15 PM | message detail |
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I guess I can't count out X completely since trends for this match
probably won't follow round 2 all that closely, but he's well behind
his pace in that match, and he still lost comfortably there. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:53:31 PM | message detail |
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Also, Zack needs to get going on the cuts. Over the first 50 minutes of
this hour, he's lost 46 votes to Mario. He absolutely has to win the
next hour (and I think he needs to win it fairly convincingly) if he
wants to beat Mario. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:54:37 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:54:41 PM | message detail |
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I've been thinking. Say you put Tifa in Zacks exact same spot in the
bracket. How do you think she would of fared these 4 matches? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:55:02 PM | message detail |
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I doubt X is in this. Zack hasn't even hit the part of the night where
he goes crazy yet(should be happening very shortly... if the other
matches are any indications) --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:55:25 PM | message detail |
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heh, it's funny to think that Zack's trend is looking like the females of FFVII - strong board vote, relatively strong night vote, then died during the day. --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:56:00 PM | message detail |
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I'd take Tifa to be winning here, and division 1 would've become more boring. --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:01:18 PM | message detail |
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Zack Fair = Most exciting part of this contest so far. Anyway, Link currently has 64.29% on Mario. Last year at this time, he had 58.98% on Mario, and ended at 62.09%. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 11:04:13 PM | message detail |
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Uh this is a fight for second between Zack and Mario. I think I like Mario by a little right now, but it's not over yet. It's a fight for third, sure. Mario's got this one won, unless you think Zack's gonna beat him during the day. --- "You don't have to worry about me." |
| Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/12/2008 11:05:45 PM | message detail |
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the hell was that --- FC=2707-1375-3667 Codename=Cav |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 11:07:48 PM | message detail |
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And it's X's turn to collapse! --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:08:44 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, there's no way Zack is in this and X isn't. They have the same
trends. By the looks of it, the two might catch up by the deep night (5
AM or so), but any lead taken then will be rather short lived. And Mario somehow stalled X at 3 and started gaining against him at 4 last round, so if something like that should happen Mario's not even going to relinquish his lead. --- Mustache...and green... |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:08:52 PM | message detail |
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Zack doesn't have to beat Mario during the day. He just needs to go
berserk between now and 6 AM, win the DSV, and avoid collapsing with
the morning or ASV. Mario's morning is excellent, but his ASV has
looked pretty mediocre this year. Yeah, Mario's the favorite, but Zack
has much better odds of beating Mario than losing to X. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:11:11 PM | message detail |
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And I say X has very little chance to beat Zack because he has
Megaman/Chrono Trigger-like trends that involve dominating the first
3-4 hours and then collapsing. Zack is going to be far away from X by
morning. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 11:12:26 PM | message detail |
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The fact that we're into the night vote right now and Zack's not going 'berserk' makes Mario look really
good here. I wouldn't expect there to be any change from how things are
now - Link > Mario > Zack > X, though I'd sooner give X a shot
at second than I would Zack, but neither are likely. --- "You don't have to worry about me." |
| ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 11:13:01 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:13:27 PM | message detail |
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More than half the votes that are going to come in between now and 6
already have, so Zack needs an enormous percentage of the remaining
night vote to build a lead that can withstand the day. And it's past 2
and he's not cutting. Mario's very safe for 2nd here. --- Mustache...and green... |
| ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 11:13:49 PM | message detail |
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Sooner give X at shot at third than I would Zack at second, I should say. --- "You don't have to worry about me." |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:16:09 PM | message detail |
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I'd give 4 AM as an absolute latest deadline for catching Mario if Zack
wants to win this. If he can catch Mario by 3:30 I'd consider then on
even footing. Thus far, we haven't reached the deep night yet, where
FFVII is terrific, and where Nintendo is awful. Zack does need to start
moving quickly though.....under 4 hours to the beginning of the morning
vote. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| edwardsdv | Posted 11/12/2008 11:17:22 PM | message detail |
| Indeed, it would seem mario is going to hold on, but the Second Night vote and the evening vote could make it very interesting if he fails to build a lead. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:20:56 PM | message detail |
| Let's look at last round: Zack had 22.07% at 2:15,
and got up to 23.66% by 6. He ended at 22.09%. Link had 51.63% at 2:15
and fell to 49.50% by 6. He ended at 51.52%. So Zack looks very very
good to take the lead from Mario tonight- Mario is also definitely the
favorite to place here, but there's a good chance he'll do worse than
Link's trends. Notice how he's been falling since the start, while
Link's percentage has been rising steadily. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:25:25 PM | message detail |
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But I think I'm going to have to retract my prediction that X will
catch Mario sometime overnight....he realistically only has until 4ish,
and he's probably just going to stall at best until then. I can still
see Zack getting up to a 500 vote lead by the time the morning vote
starts, although his lead will probably be lower than that. --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/12/2008 11:27:41 PM | message detail |
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This match looks so wrong right now. How
in the hell are Zack, Mario, and X really this close? We've seen some
absurd things this contest, but for whatever reason, this takes the
cake for me. --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 11:27:58 PM | message detail |
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You're giving Zack way too much credit if you think he builds any kind
of notable lead here, I think. He can't even consistently make cuts now
- Mario's lead is bigger now than it was an hour ago. --- "You don't have to worry about me." |
| Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/13/2008 12:12:48 AM | message detail |
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Zack's been making a few cuts in a row now, even if the last update was
an epic one-vote cut! Can he finally come back and take the lead? --- Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 12:24:25 AM | message detail |
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Well, at least Zack picked up the pace against X. He's still moving too
slow against Mario though if he wants to be in 2nd for a bit. --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 12:30:34 AM | message detail |
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And Zack's lead on X is now larger than Mario's lead on Zack. --- http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png |
| transience | Posted 11/13/2008 1:05:37 AM | message detail |
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the morning comes soon, where Mario will dominate and never look back.
Zack better hurry if he wants some kind of moral victory or whatever. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| __Aizen__ | Posted 11/13/2008 1:09:32 AM | message detail |
| the megamans are staying true to their 4 hours then die trends,unlike Crono. |
| Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/13/2008 1:21:41 AM | message detail |
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Eh, as far as i'm concerned Zack's already earned a moral victory. Most
everyone on this board has been saying Zack was a sham and didn't
deserve to be here, that he would collapse against real competition.
Yet in a poll with arguably the strongest character in the contest and
2 other N9 level characters, he's holding his own. He's not N9 level
himself of course, but i'd say this definitely proves he's high midcard
material. I'm looking forward to seeing him in action again next year,
hopefully against characters like Master Chief, Ryu (SF), Pikachu,
Kirby, etc. --- Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/13/2008 1:37:23 AM | message detail |
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Looks like Zack wants that lead for a bit after all. 3 updates in a row where he got > 25% of the intake. He almost cut Link! --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8 |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/13/2008 1:41:19 AM | message detail |
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Looks like ZackFAQs won't go down so easily. And I love this match, the only two I nominated that got past round 1 is both doing great against Mario. Hopefully both will return next year. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/13/2008 1:41:26 AM | message detail |
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Zack will get the lead here, but it's gonna be really short lived. REALLY. --- ExThaNemesis is the man. http://img.imgcake.com/ omghawttt13141.jpg |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 11/13/2008 1:48:16 AM | message detail |
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This match looks so wrong right now. How in the hell are Zack,
Mario, and X really this close? We've seen some absurd things this
contest, but for whatever reason, this takes the cake for me. Link is the King of SFF. He can make everyone look weaker than they actually are. --- [Multiple Scorgasms] Score: 250/370 Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Sonic the Hedgehog |
| earth angel | Posted 11/13/2008 1:55:33 AM | message detail |
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My bracket's life is riding on X... oops. --- http://club.ign.com/b/list/custom?&lid=100018&owner=bgbball33&mode=vown Game and DVD lists ---^ Brawl FC: 4768-7140-5656 |
