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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 629

Yesmar | Posted 11/12/2008 9:49:25 PM | message detail
I mean, it's *Zack*. I'm amazed every time he's above the fodder line.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2008 9:49:28 PM | message detail
For some reason I still think Mario can beat Crono next round, although it's a bit of a reach.... augh, damn this 4-way format.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:49:37 PM | message detail
I'd much prefer Crono in the finals to Cloud beating Link- I like Link slightly more as a character, and he didn't even win last year. Besides, Cloud beating Link due to Mario or Samus being there would be a little hollow.....I'd rather Cloud got to face Link in a fairly fair fight with Crono and Snake there. I don't think he'd win, but, well, the strongest character ought to win.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/12/2008 9:49:42 PM | message detail
creativename, all of Zack's matches were either with weak characters or were SFF fests.
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Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:49:58 PM | message detail
Roughly 30%ish percent on Link, more likely just under than just over. I doubt he's too far from that. Why do you say this?

Zack might get 30% on Link, but I doubt he comes close to beating anyone in that area of X-Stats. Basically to me he seems like a guy who thrives at low percentages.

How high can you reasonably put Wario before you think to yourself "something isn't right here"
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:50:40 PM | message detail
Besides, Cloud beating Link due to Mario or Samus being there would be a little hollow.....

...and Crono wouldn't have this and then some?
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:52:15 PM | message detail
I still can't get over that Mario outdid Crono against Link last year. Zack's fanbase might just be weird.

Mario is doing much worse relative to Link right now than he did last year. Whatever the reason, this doesn't look like the same Mario as last year's.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
__hiei__ | Posted 11/12/2008 9:53:00 PM | message detail
Crono would be revenge for the 2003 BS

besides he might be stronger than Mario again next year,with CTDS out.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:53:16 PM | message detail
Either way it looks like X might actually get killed by Zack here.......
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:54:10 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #402
For some reason I still think Mario can beat Crono next round, although it's a bit of a reach.... augh, damn this 4-way format.



A guy whos just a little below Mario and has beaten him before should have NO problem beating Mario with Samus and Link there.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:54:24 PM | message detail
...and Crono wouldn't have this and then some?

Certainly Crono beating Mario or Samus straight up would be far better, but him making the finals through SFF is still good. Cloud > Link just isn't all that awesome a result for me considering that I like Link more than Cloud to start with, and would only vote for Cloud there because he hasn't won since 2003.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 9:54:48 PM | message detail
Mario is doing much worse relative to Link right now than he did last year. Whatever the reason, this doesn't look like the same Mario as last year's.

Super Mario Galaxy
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 9:55:40 PM | message detail
Zack's strength relative to Link has been fairly consistent, and we rarely ever see anything remotely resembling consistency in this format.

So I see little reason to doubt what this format is telling us, for once.


Mario winning next round is the BIG prize, Cloud over Link.

How could Mario win next round? Only way I see that is if somehow Pikachu costs Samus to place under both Crono and Vinent, which I can't see happening. Well, maybe if every single pic of hers is ZSS that could happen :p

But Samus could make the finals. I'm missing how Mario can.

...unless Crono/Vincent LFF and Rat weirdness causes them both to lose to Pikachu, I guess.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:56:30 PM | message detail
Save_Mario.RAT
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paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 9:56:53 PM | message detail
Ouch. What happen?
ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 9:57:11 PM | message detail
besides he might be stronger than Mario again next year,with CTDS out.

Wishful thinking. We don't even know how much something like CTDS is gonna matter - but odds are good it's not enough to put Crono to where he'd need to compete with Mario. Think the best he can hope for is above the Mega Man/Sonic grouping, but below the Snake/Mario/Samus tier.

Although if he makes the finals this year, it's definitely through SFF - same as Cloud. Nothin' wrong with that, though.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:57:58 PM | message detail
Cloud's making the finals because of SFF? What? Has HM finally lost it?
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:58:23 PM | message detail
Wishful thinking. We don't even know how much something like CTDS is gonna matter - but odds are good it's not enough to put Crono to where he'd need to compete with Mario. Think the best he can hope for is above the Mega Man/Sonic grouping, but below the Snake/Mario/Samus tier.

Just how far do you think he is below Mario currently? He broke 46% on him in 2005.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:58:41 PM | message detail
Crono would be his own tier above Link after CTDS, bank it
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transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:21 PM | message detail
CTDS is weird though. we're not just talking about a port, we're talking about literally the only thing Crono has. we're talking about a game that hasn't permeated the mainstream like any other Noble Nine or top 15 character. CTDS means more.

how much more, who knows. I certainly wouldn't put him over Samus with a port. but you never know.
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xyzzy
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:23 PM | message detail
Save_Mario.RAT

Hah! :)

...break the hair down?


'Course, I love Crono.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:42 PM | message detail
Zack, you show Mario who's boss.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:42 PM | message detail
Nice 29 vote Zack cut at the end of the hour!
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:53 PM | message detail
Zack cuts Mario by 29 votes and crosses 20% to end the power hour!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:53 PM | message detail
Uh Oh... Zack's right on cue with the huge cut as the power hour ends.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
vash_131 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:54 PM | message detail
lol please stop vote stuffing for zack
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:57 PM | message detail
And like clockwork, the power hour ends. Always amazes me to see how consistently it happens.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/12/2008 10:00:58 PM | message detail
did Zack just cut Mario
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Today's prediction: Link 38.36% - Mario 24.54% - Mega Man X 20.91% - Zack Fair 16.19%
Status:
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:01:07 PM | message detail
Hahaha WOW Zack
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:01:21 PM | message detail
In 2005, Crono got 55% on Vincent. He's obviously dropped since then.
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Mustache...and green...
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:01:38 PM | message detail
hah, power hour ovah.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:02:11 PM | message detail
All your votes are now belong to Zack

Match over
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Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:03:06 PM | message detail
Well hell, prove me wrong, Zack. Seeing Zack in the semis would be friggin awesome.

Then imagine... say Pikachu and Samus somehow advance tomorrow.

Yes that's right... Zack vs Cloud in the finals it'll be glorious.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:04:14 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #433
Well hell, prove me wrong, Zack. Seeing Zack in the semis would be friggin awesome.

Then imagine... say Pikachu and Samus somehow advance tomorrow.

Yes that's right... Zack vs Cloud in the finals it'll be glorious.



We need Sephiroth to somehow beat Snake too.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:04:19 PM | message detail
Vincent's boosted since then too. And for that matter, I think Mario's dropped since 2005. He looked about equal to his 2007 self last year (put up around the same percentage on Sephiroth), and he is currently doing substantially worse than last year against Link. Call if SFF being wacky, but Mario has been flat-out unimpressive each of the previous 3 rounds also, compared to his performances last year.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:05:10 PM | message detail
Er....he looked equal to his 2005 self last year; of course he was equal to his 2007 self last year.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:05:29 PM | message detail
Perhaps he's doing worse on Link because X is here rather than Sephiroth? You know, LFF and all that.
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Mustache...and green...
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:05:53 PM | message detail
We need Sephiroth to somehow beat Snake too.

Oh gawd SOLDIER battle royal I'm so there.

Wait no that means Link gets a bajillion percent dammit this is a terrible idea.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:06:05 PM | message detail
I still don't think Zack can actually get 2nd here, but looks like he's pretty assured to take the lead overnight.

Oh, and regarding Zack and Wario, that's obvious - Cecil. Zack is obviously stronger relative to Wario than that match says.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:06:06 PM | message detail
And Mario came in last that update while X came in 2nd. This may be a match after all!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:06:23 PM | message detail
And Mario is now being cut by both Zack and X

this is gonna be a long night for the plumber
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:06:35 PM | message detail
aww yeah X is waking up

only took you an hour you fool
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:06:47 PM | message detail
Sure, but I really doubt Mario beats Crono much worse than 55-45 this year. That's well within the range of something with as much potential as CTDS.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:07:30 PM | message detail
Mario becomin the whipping boy. Mama mia
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:07:52 PM | message detail
Zack/Vincent/Cloud/Sephiroth final let's do this
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transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:10:31 PM | message detail
it's X time!

...for another couple hours
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xyzzy
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:10:42 PM | message detail
Look at X go! Too bad he's dead in three hours!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:10:52 PM | message detail
Zack....what are you doing? YOU MAKE NO SENSE!
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:10:53 PM | message detail
Potential is the key for CTDS - I don't think it'll sell enough to make much impact. Certainly this site will have a huge over-representation of CTDS owners, but those would largely be Crono fans already (though, a significant number of even those people could potentially flip their Mario/Crono preferences afterwards - again, potential).

It depends on how much Nintendo will hype the game up. Are they doing anything right now in terms of that?
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:11:00 PM | message detail
Sure would be funny if X wins that night vote over Zack!
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