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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 629

red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:26:48 PM | message detail
Link looks like he's going to end up beating Mario much worse than last year. Deboost confirmed!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/12/2008 9:27:17 PM | message detail
It's interesting to note that Mario dropped 4% from this point in his last match with Link. That one also had the King of the board vote, Sephiroth, though.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:28:39 PM | message detail
Hmm what would be a good FF7 song to play to rally Zack?
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:28:39 PM | message detail
That match had the strangest trends ever. Sephiroth outright led Link at the 5 minute mark, and ended up losing by 5%.....Sephiroth, who has pretty much the worst early vote ever.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 9:30:31 PM | message detail
Good stuff from Mario.

^*stuffing you mean, right? ^_^
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:32:26 PM | message detail
I'm not feeling Mario is safe at all yet. Early power hour voters are normally the people who pay attention most to the contest, and know to vote for Mario for the second place battle. Get to the casual voters during the day, they might not know that and just vote for Link instead.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:32:54 PM | message detail
Mario's gains on Zack:

93, 15, 14, 29, 21, 18.

I think Zack will be up 500ish by morning.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:33:58 PM | message detail
Mario's safe.

I refuse to believe Zack can top 20%.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:34:18 PM | message detail
I don't think Zack will ever take second.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:34:23 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #358
Mario's safe.

I refuse to believe Zack can top 20%.



Well you'll be surprised in a couple updates then.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
FFDragon | Posted 11/12/2008 9:34:54 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9QqJeN32ps

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09m7ohXF4Yo

Both sound like good rally songs.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com//wesker.gif
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:14 PM | message detail
That match had the strangest trends ever. Sephiroth outright led Link at the 5 minute mark, and ended up losing by 5%.....Sephiroth, who has pretty much the worst early vote ever.

Really? I guess the power of board Mario love outweighs the power of board Sephiroth hate.

Are you talking about this match?
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2920&num=4

Looks like it was the 4 minute mark rather than the 5 minute mark that he led Link, but yeah, he barely finished higher in percent from the 5 minute mark to the end of the match.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:32 PM | message detail
Heh, look at that ZACK FAIR SON go.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:41 PM | message detail
ZACK CUT

(ON MARIO)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:45 PM | message detail
Zack just cut Mario

LETS DO THIS
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:52 PM | message detail
Zack cuts Mario during the Power Hour! It's on!
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:35:53 PM | message detail
Well you'll be surprised in a couple updates then.

I meant to end the match. No doubt he has it at some point during the night, at least.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 9:36:15 PM | message detail
Wait... did the updater just increase Mario's lead on Zack while showing a Zack cut at the same time?
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2008 9:36:20 PM | message detail
ZACK ATTACK

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/12/2008 9:36:42 PM | message detail
THE ZACK ATTACK IS BACK!
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Demyx is better than Axel.
__hiei__ | Posted 11/12/2008 9:37:05 PM | message detail
uh

it increased Mario's lead on X,because X is still in second
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:37:06 PM | message detail
Wait... did the updater just increase Mario's lead on Zack while showing a Zack cut at the same time?

It increased his lead on X, not Zack.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:37:17 PM | message detail

From: Gaddswell | #368
Wait... did the updater just increase Mario's lead on Zack while showing a Zack cut at the same time?



Mega Man X is still in 3rd technically
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 9:37:45 PM | message detail
Oh... right. I thought Zack was in 2nd already. >_<
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 9:38:08 PM | message detail
I mean, 3rd...
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/12/2008 9:38:34 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:39:22 PM | message detail
My guess is Mario makes small gains the rest of this hour, the next hour is mostly stalls but with an overall trend toward Zack, and the third hour is serious cutting for Zack. He takes the lead from Mario by 3, and demolishes him with the deep night vote.....then we'll see what Mario can do with the morning, as Zack's day vote isn't nearly as good as Cloud/Sephiroth/Vincent.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:02 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #377
My guess is Mario makes small gains the rest of this hour, the next hour is mostly stalls but with an overall trend toward Zack, and the third hour is serious cutting for Zack. He takes the lead from Mario by 3, and demolishes him with the deep night vote.....then we'll see what Mario can do with the morning, as Zack's day vote isn't nearly as good as Cloud/Sephiroth/Vincent.



I wonder how diluted Marios morning/day vote will be with Link there.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/hansen.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
edwardsdv | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:20 PM | message detail
Go X!!
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:27 PM | message detail
0
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:31 PM | message detail
Nice.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:36 PM | message detail
lulz x and zack are tied
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/12/2008 9:40:48 PM | message detail
Mario increased his lead over Mega Man X (since he's still in 3rd), not Zack. Obviously I had to use the graph on that site for today's match to see that Zack managed to cut Mario.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:41:16 PM | message detail
Uh oh

X is gettin saved by Zero again, watch out Zack.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:42:44 PM | message detail
man, what sucks about this is that we've seen four Zack matches and we still have no idea how strong he is.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/12/2008 9:42:50 PM | message detail
I think the trends in last year's Link/Mario/Sephiroth match are easily explainable, with how early voters seem to vote heavily for the contesting characters when another one has it wrapped up. Sephiroth and Mario both get extra attention at the start, so Sephiroth only gains a small amount instead of his usual huge gains and Mario drops severely.

That's why I wouldn't call this one over quite yet, I think Link is going to soak up even more of the Nintendo vote later.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:43:44 PM | message detail

From: transience | #385
man, what sucks about this is that we've seen four Zack matches and we still have no idea how strong he is.



Yeah, its all weak characters or SFF fests. Crappy 4way format
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:44:10 PM | message detail
Yeah I'm still not sold Zack is as strong as these performances imply. Like it or not the guy only got like 57% on Wario.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:44:20 PM | message detail
I think the trends in last year's Link/Mario/Sephiroth match are easily explainable, with how early voters seem to vote heavily for the contesting characters when another one has it wrapped up. Sephiroth and Mario both get extra attention at the start, so Sephiroth only gains a small amount instead of his usual huge gains and Mario drops severely.

Yeah, I think we've seen it in some matches this year too. If that is happening here to a large degree....well, Mario looks really bad.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 9:45:10 PM | message detail
Zack cut Mario during the Power Hour!? Wow! That's pretty exciting, and cool :)

Overall though...I can't believe that I'm probably rooting for Mario over...over...Zack to finish 2nd :( Because Zack there instead of Mario wouldn't mean a guaranteed finals appearance for Crono.

Though it just occurred to me that Crono might *not* beat Vincent. Hm, for some reason I was taking that as a given. I don't mind if Zack hurts Vincent, because I'd love to see Mario in the finals costing Link the match against Cloud.

Man, I'm getting conflicted here. But for the moment anyway, go Zack!
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Master Moltar | Posted 11/12/2008 9:45:23 PM | message detail
bye bye X
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hmm
well then
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:46:23 PM | message detail
If Mario wins here, either Vincent or Crono basically are given a bye to the finals though
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
ZFS | Posted 11/12/2008 9:46:34 PM | message detail
Link > Mario > Zack > X

looks right

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"You don't have to worry about me."
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:01 PM | message detail
But if Zack and Vincent win, Cloud can beat Link in the finals.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:10 PM | message detail
All aboard for the Zack Fair express!

If you'll look to your left, you'll see the sad, broken remains of Mega Man X, the lesser man.

Next stop: The Mushroom Kingdom!

(note: there is no way zack actually finishes second)
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:11 PM | message detail
it depends on how big your goals are here.

Zack winning means Samus probably makes the final -- her or Crono.

Mario winning means Crono or Vincent makes the final -- and an automatic Link win.

Mario winning next round is the BIG prize, Cloud over Link.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:16 PM | message detail
believe
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:21 PM | message detail
man, what sucks about this is that we've seen four Zack matches and we still have no idea how strong he is.

Roughly 30%ish percent on Link, more likely just under than just over. I doubt he's too far from that. Why do you say this?
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 9:47:45 PM | message detail
I don't think it's that simple.

I still can't get over that Mario outdid Crono against Link last year. Zack's fanbase might just be weird.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 9:48:58 PM | message detail
Roughly 30%ish percent on Link, more likely just under than just over. I doubt he's too far from that. Why do you say this?

well, you had lots of RPG characters in rounds 1 and 2. in round 3 you had what seemed like a stronger Duke Nukem and an unknown Altair. in round 4 you've got three Nintendo characters.

I don't feel like we've had a real look at Zack at all. I guess the conventional wisdom would be that he's around Aeris. but I don't know how accurate it is, even if it ends up being correct.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
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